Underestimation of Thermogenic Methane Emissions in New York City.

Recent studies have shown that methane emissions are underestimated by inventories in many US urban areas. This has important implications for climate change mitigation policy at the city, state, and national levels. Uncertainty in both the spatial distribution and sectoral allocation of urban emissions can limit the ability of policy makers to develop appropriately focused emission reduction strategies. Top-down emission estimates based on atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements can help to improve inventories and inform policy decisions. This study presents a new high-resolution (0.02 × 0.02°) methane emission inventory for New York City and its surrounding area, constructed using the latest activity data, emission factors, and spatial proxies. The new high-resolution inventory estimates of methane emissions for the New York-Newark urban area are 1.3 times larger than those for the gridded Environmental Protection Agency inventory. We used aircraft mole fraction measurements from nine research flights to optimize the high-resolution inventory emissions within a Bayesian inversion. These sectorally optimized emissions show that the high-resolution inventory still significantly underestimates methane emissions within the New York-Newark urban area, primarily because it underestimates emissions from thermogenic sources (by a factor of 2.3). This suggests that there remains a gap in our process-based understanding of urban methane emissions.

Anthropogenic and biogenic CO2 fluxes in the Boston urban region.

With the pending withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, cities are now leading US actions toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing effective mitigation strategies requires the ability to measure and track emissions over time and at various scales. We report CO2 emissions in the Boston, MA, urban region from September 2013 to December 2014 based on atmospheric observations in an inverse model framework. Continuous atmospheric measurements of CO2 from five sites in and around Boston were combined with a high-resolution bottom-up CO2 emission inventory and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to determine regional emissions. Our model-measurement framework incorporates emissions estimates from submodels for both anthropogenic and biological CO2 fluxes, and development of a CO2 concentration curtain at the boundary of the study region based on a combination of tower measurements and modeled vertical concentration gradients. We demonstrate that an emission inventory with high spatial and temporal resolution and the inclusion of urban biological fluxes are both essential to accurately modeling annual CO2 fluxes using surface measurement networks. We calculated annual average emissions in the Boston region of 0.92 kg C·m-2·y-1 (95% confidence interval: 0.79 to 1.06), which is 14% higher than the Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions System inventory. Based on the capability of the model-measurement approach demonstrated here, our framework should be able to detect changes in CO2 emissions of greater than 18%, providing stakeholders with critical information to assess mitigation efforts in Boston and surrounding areas.

Cities, traffic, and CO2: A multidecadal assessment of trends, drivers, and scaling relationships.

Emissions of CO2 from road vehicles were 1.57 billion metric tons in 2012, accounting for 28% of US fossil fuel CO2 emissions, but the spatial distributions of these emissions are highly uncertain. We develop a new emissions inventory, the Database of Road Transportation Emissions (DARTE), which estimates CO2 emitted by US road transport at a resolution of 1 km annually for 1980-2012. DARTE reveals that urban areas are responsible for 80% of on-road emissions growth since 1980 and for 63% of total 2012 emissions. We observe nonlinearities between CO2 emissions and population density at broad spatial/temporal scales, with total on-road CO2 increasing nonlinearly with population density, rapidly up to 1,650 persons per square kilometer and slowly thereafter. Per capita emissions decline as density rises, but at markedly varying rates depending on existing densities. We make use of DARTE's bottom-up construction to highlight the biases associated with the common practice of using population as a linear proxy for disaggregating national- or state-scale emissions. Comparing DARTE with existing downscaled inventories, we find biases of 100% or more in the spatial distribution of urban and rural emissions, largely driven by mismatches between inventory downscaling proxies and the actual spatial patterns of vehicle activity at urban scales. Given cities' dual importance as sources of CO2 and an emerging nexus of climate mitigation initiatives, high-resolution estimates such as DARTE are critical both for accurately quantifying surface carbon fluxes and for verifying the effectiveness of emissions mitigation efforts at urban scales.

A bottom up approach to on-road CO2 emissions estimates: improved spatial accuracy and applications for regional planning.

On-road transportation is responsible for 28% of all U.S. fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. Mapping vehicle emissions at regional scales is challenging due to data limitations. Existing emission inventories use spatial proxies such as population and road density to downscale national or state-level data. Such procedures introduce errors where the proxy variables and actual emissions are weakly correlated, and limit analysis of the relationship between emissions and demographic trends at local scales. We develop an on-road emission inventory product for Massachusetts-based on roadway-level traffic data obtained from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). We provide annual estimates of on-road CO2 emissions at a 1 × 1 km grid scale for the years 1980 through 2008. We compared our results with on-road emissions estimates from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), with the Vulcan Product, and with estimates derived from state fuel consumption statistics reported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Our model differs from FHWA estimates by less than 8.5% on average, and is within 5% of Vulcan estimates. We found that EDGAR estimates systematically exceed FHWA by an average of 22.8%. Panel regression analysis of per-mile CO2 emissions on population density at the town scale shows a statistically significant correlation that varies systematically in sign and magnitude as population density increases. Population density has a positive correlation with per-mile CO2 emissions for densities below 2000 persons km(-2), above which increasing density correlates negatively with per-mile emissions.

Influence of landscape management practices on urban greenhouse gas budgets.

BACKGROUND: With a lack of United States federal policy to address climate change, cities, the private sector, and universities have shouldered much of the work to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions. This study aims to determine how landcover characteristics influence the amount of carbon (C) sequestered and respired via biological processes, evaluating the role of land management on the overall C budget of an urban university. Boston University published a comprehensive Climate Action Plan in 2017 with the goal of achieving C neutrality by 2040. In this study, we digitized and discretized each of Boston University's three urban campuses into landcover types, with C sequestration and respiration rates measured and scaled to provide a University-wide estimate of biogenic C fluxes within the broader context of total University emissions. RESULTS: Each of Boston University's three highly urban campuses were net sources of biogenic C to the atmosphere. While trees were estimated to sequester 0.6 ± 0.2 kg C m-2 canopy cover year-1, mulch and lawn areas in 2018 emitted C at rates of 1.7 ± 0.4 kg C m-2 year-1 and 1.4 ± 0.4 kg C m-2 year-1, respectively. C uptake by tree canopy cover, which can spatially overlap lawn and mulched landcovers, was not large enough to offset biogenic emissions. The proportion of biogenic emissions to Scope 1 anthropogenic emissions on each campus varied from 0.5% to 2%, and depended primarily on the total anthropogenic emissions on each campus. CONCLUSIONS: Our study quantifies the role of urban landcover in local C budgets, offering insights on how landscaping management strategies-such as decreasing mulch application rates and expanding tree canopy extent-can assist universities in minimizing biogenic C emissions and even potentially creating a small biogenic C sink. Although biogenic C fluxes represent a small fraction of overall anthropogenic emissions on urban university campuses, these biogenic fluxes are under active management by the university and should be included in climate action plans.

Urban emissions hotspots: Quantifying vehicle congestion and air pollution using mobile phone GPS data.

On-road emissions vary widely on time scales as short as minutes and length scales as short as tens of meters. Detailed data on emissions at these scales are a prerequisite to accurately quantifying ambient pollution concentrations and identifying hotspots of human exposure within urban areas. We construct a highly resolved inventory of hourly fluxes of CO, NO2, NOx, PM2.5 and CO2 from road vehicles on 280,000 road segments in eastern Massachusetts for the year 2012. Our inventory integrates a large database of hourly vehicle speeds derived from mobile phone and vehicle GPS data with multiple regional datasets of vehicle flows, fleet characteristics, and local meteorology. We quantify the 'excess' emissions from traffic congestion, finding modest congestion enhancement (3-6%) at regional scales, but hundreds of local hotspots with highly elevated annual emissions (up to 75% for individual roadways in key corridors). Congestion-driven reductions in vehicle fuel economy necessitated 'excess' consumption of 113 million gallons of motor fuel, worth âˆ¼ $415M, but this accounted for only 3.5% of the total fuel consumed in Massachusetts, as over 80% of vehicle travel occurs in uncongested conditions. Across our study domain, emissions are highly spatially concentrated, with 70% of pollution originating from only 10% of the roads. The 2011 EPA National Emissions Inventory (NEI) understates our aggregate emissions of NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 by 46%, 38%, and 18%, respectively. However, CO emissions agree within 5% for the two inventories, suggesting that the large biases in NOx and PM2.5 emissions arise from differences in estimates of diesel vehicle activity. By providing fine-scale information on local emission hotspots and regional emissions patterns, our inventory framework supports targeted traffic interventions, transparent benchmarking, and improvements in overall urban air quality.

Variability, drivers, and effects of atmospheric nitrogen inputs across an urban area: Emerging patterns among human activities, the atmosphere, and soils.

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) is a major input of N to the biosphere and is elevated beyond preindustrial levels throughout many ecosystems. Deposition monitoring networks in the United States generally avoid urban areas in order to capture regional patterns of N deposition, and studies measuring N deposition in cities usually include only one or two urban sites in an urban-rural comparison or as an anchor along an urban-to-rural gradient. Describing patterns and drivers of atmospheric N inputs is crucial for understanding the effects of N deposition; however, little is known about the variability and drivers of atmospheric N inputs or their effects on soil biogeochemistry within urban ecosystems. We measured rates of canopy throughfall N as a measure of atmospheric N inputs, as well as soil net N mineralization and nitrification, soil solution N, and soil respiration at 15 sites across the greater Boston, Massachusetts area. Rates of throughfall N are 8.70±0.68kgNha-1yr-1, vary 3.5-fold across sites, and are positively correlated with rates of local vehicle N emissions. Ammonium (NH4+) composes 69.9±2.2% of inorganic throughfall N inputs and is highest in late spring, suggesting a contribution from local fertilizer inputs. Soil solution NO3- is positively correlated with throughfall NO3- inputs. In contrast, soil solution NH4+, net N mineralization, nitrification, and soil respiration are not correlated with rates of throughfall N inputs. Rather, these processes are correlated with soil properties such as soil organic matter. Our results demonstrate high variability in rates of urban throughfall N inputs, correlation of throughfall N inputs with local vehicle N emissions, and a decoupling of urban soil biogeochemistry and throughfall N inputs.

Accounting for urban biogenic fluxes in regional carbon budgets.

Many ecosystem models incorrectly treat urban areas as devoid of vegetation and biogenic carbon (C) fluxes. We sought to improve estimates of urban biomass and biogenic C fluxes using existing, nationally available data products. We characterized biogenic influence on urban C cycling throughout Massachusetts, USA using an ecosystem model that integrates improved representation of urban vegetation, growing conditions associated with urban heat island (UHI), and altered urban phenology. Boston's biomass density is 1/4 that of rural forests, however 87% of Massachusetts' urban landscape is vegetated. Model results suggest that, kilogram-for-kilogram, urban vegetation cycles C twice as fast as rural forests. Urban vegetation releases (RE) and absorbs (GEE) the equivalent of 11 and 14%, respectively, of anthropogenic emissions in the most urban portions of the state. While urban vegetation in Massachusetts fully sequesters anthropogenic emissions from smaller cities in the region, Boston's UHI reduces annual C storage by >20% such that vegetation offsets only 2% of anthropogenic emissions. Asynchrony between temporal patterns of biogenic and anthropogenic C fluxes further constrains the emissions mitigation potential of urban vegetation. However, neglecting to account for biogenic C fluxes in cities can impair efforts to accurately monitor, report, verify, and reduce anthropogenic emissions.

Soil respiration contributes substantially to urban carbon fluxes in the greater Boston area.

Urban areas are the dominant source of U.S. fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions. In the absence of binding international treaties or decisive U.S. federal policy for greenhouse gas regulation, cities have also become leaders in greenhouse gas reduction efforts through climate action plans. These plans focus on anthropogenic carbon flows only, however, ignoring a potentially substantial contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from biological respiration. Our aim was to measure the contribution of CO2 efflux from soil respiration to atmospheric CO2 fluxes using an automated CO2 efflux system and to use these measurements to model urban soil CO2 efflux across an urban area. We find that growing season soil respiration is dramatically enhanced in urban areas and represents levels of CO2 efflux of up to 72% of FFCO2 within greater Boston's residential areas, and that soils in urban forests, lawns, and landscaped cover types emit 2.62 ± 0.15, 4.49 ± 0.14, and 6.73 ± 0.26 µmolCO2 m(-2) s(-1), respectively, during the growing season. These rates represent up to 2.2 times greater soil respiration than rates found in nearby rural ecosystems in central Massachusetts (MA), a potential consequence of imported carbon amendments, such as mulch, within a general regime of landowner management. As the scientific community moves rapidly towards monitoring, reporting, and verification of CO2 emissions using ground based approaches and remotely-sensed observations to measure CO2 concentrations, our results show that measurement and modeling of biogenic urban CO2 fluxes will be a critical component for verification of urban climate action plans.

Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale.

On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO(2) emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO(2) observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R(2) = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO(2) mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data.