The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments (FVVA): a framework for assessing and communicating the value of vaccines for investment and introduction decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Several economic obstacles can deter the development and use of vaccines. This can lead to limited product options for some diseases, delays in new product development, and inequitable access to vaccines. Although seemingly distinct, these obstacles are actually interrelated and therefore need to be addressed through a single over-arching strategy encompassing all stakeholders. METHODS: To help overcome these obstacles, we propose a new approach, the Full Value of Vaccines Assessments (FVVA) framework, to guide the assessment and communication of the value of a vaccine. The FVVA framework is designed to facilitate alignment across key stakeholders and to enhance decision-making around investment in vaccine development, policy-making, procurement, and introduction, particularly for vaccines intended for use in low- and middle-income countries. RESULTS: The FVVA framework has three key elements. First, to enhance assessment, existing value-assessment methods and tools are adapted to include broader benefits of vaccines as well as opportunity costs borne by stakeholders. Second, to improve decision-making, a deliberative process is required to recognize the agency of stakeholders and to ensure country ownership of decision-making and priority setting. Third, the FVVA framework provides a consistent and evidence-based approach that facilitates communication about the full value of vaccines, helping to enhance alignment and coordination across diverse stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: The FVVA framework provides guidance for stakeholders organizing global-level efforts to promote investment in vaccines that are priorities for LMICs. By providing a more holistic view of the benefits of vaccines, its application also has the potential to encourage greater take-up by countries, thereby leading to more sustainable and equitable impacts of vaccines and immunization programmes.

The CAPACITI Decision-Support Tool for National Immunization Programs.

OBJECTIVES: Immunization programs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are faced with an ever-growing number of vaccines of public health importance recommended by the World Health Organization, while also financing a greater proportion of the program through domestic resources. More than ever, national immunization programs must be equipped to contextualize global guidance and make choices that are best suited to their setting. The CAPACITI decision-support tool has been developed in collaboration with national immunization program decision makers in LMICs to structure and document an evidence-based, context-specific process for prioritizing or selecting among multiple vaccination products, services, or strategies. METHODS: The CAPACITI decision-support tool is based on multi-criteria decision analysis, as a structured way to incorporate multiple sources of evidence and stakeholder perspectives. The tool has been developed iteratively in consultation with 12 countries across Africa, Asia, and the Americas. RESULTS: The tool is flexible to existing country processes and can follow any type of multi-criteria decision analysis or a hybrid approach. It is structured into 5 sections: decision question, criteria for decision making, evidence assessment, appraisal, and recommendation. The Excel-based tool guides the user through the steps and document discussions in a transparent manner, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement and country ownership. CONCLUSIONS: Pilot countries valued the CAPACITI decision-support tool as a means to consider multiple criteria and stakeholder perspectives and to evaluate trade-offs and the impact of data quality. With use, it is expected that LMICs will tailor steps to their context and streamline the tool for decision making.

Advancing vaccine development for gonorrhoea and the Global STI Vaccine Roadmap.

Efforts to develop vaccines against Neisseria gonorrhoeae have become increasingly important, given the rising threat of gonococcal antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Recent data suggest vaccines for gonorrhoea are biologically feasible; in particular, epidemiological evidence shows that vaccines against a closely related pathogen, serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccines, may reduce gonorrhoea incidence. Vaccine candidates using several approaches are currently in preclinical development, including meningococcal and gonococcal OMV vaccines, a lipooligosaccharide epitope and purified protein subunit vaccines. The Global STI Vaccine Roadmap provides action steps to build on this technical momentum and advance gonococcal vaccine development. Better quantifying the magnitude of gonorrhoea-associated disease burden, for outcomes like infertility, and modelling the predicted role of gonococcal vaccines in addressing AMR will be essential for building a full public health value proposition, which can justify investment and help with decision making about future vaccine policy and programs. Efforts are underway to gain consensus on gonorrhoea vaccine target populations, implementation strategies and other preferred product characteristics that would make these vaccines suitable for use in low- and middle-income, as well as high-income, contexts. Addressing these epidemiological, programmatic and policy considerations in parallel to advancing research and development, including direct assessment of the ability of meningococcal B OMV vaccines to prevent gonorrhoea, can help bring about the development of viable gonococcal vaccines.

Facilitating the development of urgently required combination vaccines.

The essence of a vaccine lies in its ability to elicit a set of immune responses specifically directed at a particular pathogen. Accordingly, vaccines were historically designed, developed, registered, recommended, procured, and administered as monopathogen formulations. Nonetheless, the control and elimination of an astonishing number of diseases was realised only after several once-separate vaccines were provided as combinations. Unfortunately, the current superabundance of recommended and pipeline vaccines is now at odds with the number of acceptable vaccine administrations and feasible health-care visits for vaccine recipients and health-care providers. Yet, few new combinations are in development because, in addition to the scientific and manufacturing hurdles intrinsic to coformulation, developers face a gauntlet of regulatory, policy, and commercialisation obstacles in a milieu still largely designed for monopathogen vaccines. We argue here that national policy makers and public health agencies should prospectively identify and advocate for the development of new multipathogen combination vaccines, and suggest ways to accelerate the regulatory pathways to licensure of combinations and other concrete, innovative steps to mitigate current obstacles.

The role of vaccines in reducing antimicrobial resistance: A review of potential impact of vaccines on AMR and insights across 16 vaccines and pathogens.

In 2019, an estimated 4.95 million deaths were linked to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Vaccines can prevent many of these deaths by averting both drug-sensitive and resistant infections, reducing antibiotic usage, and lowering the likelihood of developing resistance genes. However, their role in mitigating AMR is currently underutilized. This article builds upon previous research that utilizes Vaccine Value Profiles-tools that assess the health, socioeconomic, and societal impact of pathogens-to inform vaccine development. We analyze the effects of 16 pathogens, covered by Vaccine Value Profiles, on AMR, and explore how vaccines could reduce AMR. The article also provides insights into vaccine development and usage. Vaccines are crucial in lessening the impact of infectious diseases and curbing the development of AMR. To fully realize their potential, vaccines must be more prominently featured in the overall strategy to combat AMR. This requires ongoing investment in research and development of new vaccines and the implementation of additional prevention and control measures to address this global threat effectively.

Exploring Important Attributes, the Potential Use Cases and Feasibility of Introduction of Measles and Rubella Microarray Patches (MR-MAPs): Insights from Nine Countries.

Background: Microarray patches (MAPs) are innovative, needle-free vaccine delivery systems, suitable for administration by minimally trained health care workers or trained community health workers. Their introduction may transform immunization programmes, particularly for vaccines where high coverage is required for population immunity, such as measles, and where vaccine delivery is challenging, such as in low- and middle-income countries. Recognizing the need to understand how best to tailor these products to reflect country priorities, workshops on measles and rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) were conducted in multiple regions to collect insights on needs and preferences from relevant stakeholders at country level. Methods: The CAPACITI Innovation Framework was used to structure stakeholder discussions in nine countries in the period from August 2022 to July 2023. The discussions, building on the findings from a situation analysis on the barriers related to measles and rubella vaccine delivery, followed the four-step process outlined in the framework. Results: Key barriers hindering delivery of measles and rubella vaccines across the countries were in the categories of human resource management, service delivery, and demand generation. MR-MAP attributes that stakeholders believed would reduce or eliminate these barriers included ease of preparation and administration, improved thermostability, fewer (ancillary) components, and single-dose presentation. Some attributes such as the site of administration, wear time, and storage volume could exacerbate certain barriers. Based on an understanding of key barriers, product attributes, and underserved populations, stakeholders identified several potential use cases for MR-MAPs: (i) delivery at a fixed health post, (ii) delivery through outreach sessions conducted by health workers, and (iii) administration by community health workers. To enable robust national decision making about the introduction of MR-MAPs and successful implementation, global and national evidence on feasibility and acceptability of MR-MAPs should be generated. To prepare for the potential introduction of MR-MAPs, immunization programmes should evaluate their immunization policies based on their preferred use cases and modify them if needed, for example, to enable community health workers to administer vaccines, along with making programmatic adjustments to waste management and training. Conclusions: MR-MAPs have the potential to reduce key barriers to MR delivery. Yet, their future impact depends on the ability of global stakeholders to steer the development of MR-MAPs to be responsive to country needs and preferences. The generation of evidence to enable robust decision making, timely modification of vaccine policies, and addressing programmatic considerations will be key to successful uptake.

A review of potential use cases for measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid-conjugate vaccines presented on microarray patches.

As an innovative vaccine delivery technology, vaccine microarray patches could have a meaningful impact on routine immunization coverage in low- and middle-income countries, and vaccine deployment during epidemics and pandemics. This review of the potential use cases for a subset of vaccine microarray patches in various stages of clinical development, including measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid conjugate, highlights the breadth of their applicability to support immunization service delivery and their potential scope of utilization within national immunization programs. Definition and assessment of the use cases for this novel vaccine presentation provide important insights for vaccine developers and policymakers into the strengths of the public health and commercial value propositions, and the preparatory requirements for public health systems for the future rollout of vaccine microarray patches. An in-depth understanding of use cases for vaccine microarray patches serves as a foundational input to overcoming the remaining technical, regulatory, and financial challenges. Additional efforts will help to realize the potential of vaccine microarray patches as part of the global effort to improve the coverage and equity of national immunization programs.

A Practical Guide to Full Value of Vaccine Assessments.

Articulating the wide range of health, social and economic benefits that vaccines offer may help to overcome obstacles in the vaccine development pipeline. A framework to guide the assessment and communication of the value of a vaccine-the Full Value of Vaccine Assessment (FVVA)-has been developed by the WHO. The FVVA framework offers a holistic assessment of the value of vaccines, providing a synthesis of evidence to inform the public health need of a vaccine, describing the supply and demand aspects, its market and its impact from a health, financial and economic perspective. This paper provides a practical guide to how FVVAs are developed and used to support investment in vaccines, ultimately leading to sustained implementation in countries. The FVVA includes a range of elements that can be broadly categorised as synthesis, vaccine development narrative and defining vaccine impact and value. Depending on the features of the disease/vaccine in question, different elements may be emphasised; however, a standardised set of elements is recommended for each FVVA. The FVVA should be developed by an expert group who represent a range of stakeholders, perspectives and geographies and ensure a fair, coherent and evidence-based assessment of vaccine value.

An Application of an Initial Full Value of Vaccine Assessment Methodology to Measles-Rubella MAPs for Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030-2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16-81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications.

The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments Concept-Current Opportunities and Recommendations.

For vaccine development and adoption decisions, the 'Full Value of Vaccine Assessment' (FVVA) framework has been proposed by the WHO to expand the range of evidence available to support the prioritization of candidate vaccines for investment and eventual uptake by low- and middle-income countries. Recent applications of the FVVA framework have already shown benefits. Building on the success of these applications, we see important new opportunities to maximize the future utility of FVVAs to country and global stakeholders and provide a proof-of-concept for analyses in other areas of disease control and prevention. These opportunities include the following: (1) FVVA producers should aim to create evidence that explicitly meets the needs of multiple key FVVA consumers, (2) the WHO and other key stakeholders should develop standardized methodologies for FVVAs, as well as guidance for how different stakeholders can explicitly reflect their values within the FVVA framework, and (3) the WHO should convene experts to further develop and prioritize the research agenda for outcomes and benefits relevant to the FVVA and elucidate methodological approaches and opportunities for standardization not only for less well-established benefits, but also for any relevant research gaps. We encourage FVVA stakeholders to engage with these opportunities.

Key considerations for the development of novel mRNA candidate vaccines in LMICs: A WHO/MPP mRNA Technology Transfer Programme meeting report.

The WHO/MPP mRNA Technology Transfer Programme, initiated in 2021, focuses on establishing mRNA vaccine manufacturing capacity in LMICs. On 17-21 April 2023, Programme partners were convened to review technology transfer progress, discuss sustainability aspects and promote mRNA product development for diseases relevant to LMICs. To help guide product development, this report introduces key considerations for for understanding the likelihood of technical and regulatory success and of policy development and procurement for mRNA vaccines to be developed and manufactured in LMICs. The report underscores the potential for LMICs to establish sustainable mRNA R&D pipelines.

Vaccine value profile for Shigella.

Shigella is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhoea and the second leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality among all ages. It also exhibits increasing levels of antibiotic resistance. The greatest burden is among children under five in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As such, a priority strategic goal of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the development of a safe, effective and affordable vaccine to reduce morbidity and mortality from Shigella-attributable dysentery and diarrhea, including long term outcomes associated with chronic inflammation and growth faltering, in children under 5 years of age in LMICs. In addition, a safe and effective Shigella vaccine is of potential interest to travellers and military both to prevent acute disease and rarer, long-term sequelae. An effective Shigella vaccine is also anticipated to reduce antibiotic use and thereby help diminish further emergence of enteric pathogens resistant to antimicrobials. The most advanced vaccine candidates are multivalent, parenteral formulations in Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical studies. They rely on O-antigen-polysaccharide protein conjugate technologies or, alternatively, outer membrane vesicles expressing penta-acylated lipopolysaccharide that has been detoxified. Other parenteral and oral formulations, many delivering a broader array of Shigella antigens, are at earlier stages of clinical development. These formulations are being assessed in alignment with the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, which call for a 1 to 2 dose primary immunization series given during the first 12 months of life, ideally starting at 6 months of age. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for Shigella is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, government agencies and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the Shigella VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Challenges and opportunities in developing a Shigella-containing combination vaccine for children in low- and middle-income countries: Report of an expert convening.

The gram-negative bacterium Shigella is an enteric pathogen responsible for significant morbidity and mortality due primarily to severe diarrhea and dysentery, mainly among children younger than five years of age living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Long considered a priority target for vaccine development, recent scientific advances have led to a number of promising Shigella vaccine candidates now entering advanced stages of clinical testing. Yet, there is no guarantee that even a highly efficacious Shigella vaccine will be recommended, prioritized, purchased, and widely adopted-especially if it requires additional doses in the immunization schedule and/or visits within the immunization program. This uncertainty is due to a variety of factors, including continuing declines in Shigella-specific and overall diarrheal disease mortality rates, the increasing complexity and cost of infant immunization programs in LMICs, and the recent availability of other high-priority vaccines. Since combining a Shigella vaccine with an existing infant vaccine would conceivably increase its attractiveness, there is a need to systematically consider the challenges determining the public health value, clinical development, manufacturing, licensure, policy recommendations, and financing for a Shigella-containing combination vaccine. The international non-governmental health organization PATH convened an independent panel of 34 subject matter experts across academic, industry, philanthropic, and global health sectors to discuss hypothetical combinations of a notional parenteral Shigella vaccine with three existing vaccines in order to begin exploring the challenges associated with their development. The resulting insights and recommendations from this meeting contribute to PATH's broader effort to evaluate the public health value of potential Shigella vaccines. They may also help guide future combination vaccine development efforts more broadly.

Meeting Summary: Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum, 2021.

The 2021 Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum highlighted the considerable advances and recent progress in research and development for vaccines and immunization, critically reviewed lessons learned from COVID-19 vaccine programs, and looked ahead to opportunities for this decade. For COVID-19, decades of investments in basic and translational research, new technology platforms, and vaccines targeting prototype pathogens enabled a rapid, global response. Unprecedented global coordination and partnership have played an essential role in creating and delivering COVID-19 vaccines. More improvement is needed in product attributes such as deliverability, and in equitable access to vaccines. Developments in other priority areas included: the halting of two human immunodeficiency virus vaccine trials due to lack of efficacy in preventing infection; promising efficacy results in Phase 2 trials of two tuberculosis vaccines; pilot implementation of the most advanced malaria vaccine candidate in three countries; trials of human papillomavirus vaccines given in single-dose regimens; and emergency use listing of a novel, oral poliomyelitis type 2 vaccine. More systematic, proactive approaches are being developed for fostering vaccine uptake and demand, aligning on priorities for investment by the public and private sectors, and accelerating policy making. Participants emphasized that addressing endemic disease is intertwined with emergency preparedness and pandemic response, so that advances in one area create opportunities in the other. In this decade, advances made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic should accelerate availability of vaccines for other diseases, contribute to preparedness for future pandemics, and help to achieve impact and equity under Immunization Agenda 2030.

Exploring potential applications of measles and rubella microarray patches (MR-MAPs): use case identification.

Introduction: Innovative vaccine products will be critical in helping to address the existing implementation barriers that have prevented the achievement of the measles and rubella (MR) vaccine coverage targets. Overcoming those barriers will be necessary to achieve the "Immunization Agenda 2030" goals. Microarray patches (MAPs), an innovative needle-free delivery device currently in clinical development, can be a potential game changer in this respect and contribute to the equitable delivery of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries and pandemic preparedness and response. Developing in-depth knowledge of the most desired and impactful uses of MRMAPs can prove critical to identifying the critical attributes of the target product profile, informing policy and adoption decisions, and helping to evaluate the potential public health and economic value of this technology. The first step in this process is the definition of the potential use cases for MR-MAPs, i.e., where and how this product is most likely to be used within the immunization programme. Methods: By applying a design-based user-centric approach, we implemented a three-step process, including a desk review, a survey, and interviews, to define the most relevant use cases for MR MAPS. Results: Six use cases have been identified as relevant across all different countries and immunization programme designs and validated by experts. Discussion: The identified use cases have already informed the demand estimate for MR-MAPs and provided the foundation for developing an initial full vaccine value assessment. We believe that, in the future, they will be highly valuable in ensuring that the roll-out of this promising innovation is designed in a way that maximizes the impact, particularly in populations and countries that are most in need.

Clinical and regulatory development strategies for Shigella vaccines intended for children younger than 5 years in low-income and middle-income countries.

Shigellosis causes considerable public health burden, leading to excess deaths as well as acute and chronic consequences, particularly among children living in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Several Shigella vaccine candidates are advancing in clinical trials and offer promise. Although multiple target populations might benefit from a Shigella vaccine, the primary strategic goal of WHO is to accelerate the development and accessibility of safe, effective, and affordable Shigella vaccines that reduce mortality and morbidity in children younger than 5 years living in LMICs. WHO consulted with regulators and policy makers at national, regional, and global levels to evaluate pathways that could accelerate regulatory approval in this priority population. Special consideration was given to surrogate efficacy biomarkers, the role of controlled human infection models, and the establishment of correlates of protection. A field efficacy study in children younger than 5 years in LMICs is needed to ensure introduction in this priority population.

Accelerating the development of vaccine microarray patches for epidemic response and equitable immunization coverage requires investment in microarray patch manufacturing facilities.

INTRODUCTION: There is a need for investment in manufacturing for vaccine microarray patches (vMAPs) to accelerate vMAP development and access. vMAPs could transform vaccines deployment and reach to everyone, everywhere. AREAS COVERED: We outline vMAPs' potential benefits for epidemic preparedness and for outreach in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), share lessons learned from pandemic response, and highlight that investment in manufacturing-at-risk could accelerate vMAP development. EXPERT OPINION: Pilot manufacturing capabilities are needed to produce clinical trial material and enable emergency response. Funding vMAP manufacturing scale-up in parallel to clinical proof-of-concept studies could accelerate vMAP approval and availability. Incentives could mitigate the risks of establishing multi-vMAP manufacturing facilities early.

Vaccine value profile for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC).

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is one of the leading bacterial causes of diarrhoea, especially among children in low-resource settings, and travellers and military personnel from high-income countries. WHO's primary strategic goal for ETEC vaccine development is to develop a safe, effective, and affordable ETEC vaccine that reduces mortality and morbidity due to moderate-to-severe diarrhoeal disease in infants and children under 5 years of age in LMICs, as well as the long-term negative health impact on infant physical and cognitive development resulting from infection with this enteric pathogen. An effective ETEC vaccine will also likely reduce the need for antibiotic treatment and help limit the further emergence of antimicrobial resistance bacterial pathogens. The lead ETEC vaccine candidate, ETVAX, has shown field efficacy in travellers and has moved into field efficacy testing in LMIC infants and children. A Phase 3 efficacy study in LMIC infants is projected to start in 2024 and plans for a Phase 3 trial in travellers are under discussion with the U.S. FDA. Licensing for both travel and LMIC indications is projected to be feasible in the next 5-8 years. Given increasing recognition of its negative impact on child health and development in LMICs and predominance as the leading etiology of travellers' diarrhoea (TD), a standalone vaccine for ETEC is more cost-effective than vaccines targeting other TD pathogens, and a viable commercial market also exists. In contrast, combination of an ETEC vaccine with other vaccines for childhood pathogens in LMICs would maximize protection in a more cost-effective manner than a series of stand-alone vaccines. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for ETEC is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of available data to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships, and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the ETEC VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios. METHODS: We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy. FINDINGS: The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up. FUNDING: WHO (2020/985800-0). TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.