The race for space: Modelling the landward migration of coastal wetlands under sea level rise at regional scale.

Globally, sea-level rise (SLR) is a major environmental challenge for coastal ecosystems. Of particular concern are the impacts on intertidal wetlands, the loss of which would have detrimental consequences for both human and ecological communities. On the south-east Australian coast, case studies suggest that the future of intertidal wetlands will greatly depend on landward migration as surface accretion may not keep up with the predicted SLR in many estuaries. However, due to differences in geomorphological settings and land-use, estuaries vary in their capacity to accommodate lateral migration. Regional scale assessment of the lateral accommodation space is therefore critical for pre-emptive planning to conserve these valuable coastal ecosystems. In this study, we analysed wetland lateral accommodation space distribution within 110 estuaries under three SLR scenarios and three land management options on the New South Wales coast, south-east Australia. From the wetland distribution predictions, we calculated and mapped the lateral accommodation space in each estuary associated with each sea level and land use scenario. We further investigated the relationships between wetland migration capacity, intertidal hypsometry represented by elevation skewness, and estuary type within a Bayesian analysis framework. Our results showed that while a few large riverine estuaries dominated the state's total accommodation space, saline wetlands were at risk of disappearing from most intermittently closed-open estuaries if they cannot vertically accrete at the pace of SLR. These distinct responses to SLR are due to different elevation distributions. Furthermore, our assessment of land use adaptation options suggested that the promotion of landward migration without impairing other important ecosystems could be achieved by making low intensity land uses available within several riverine estuaries and barrier (open entrance) estuaries. Through identifying migration opportunities and barriers, the findings of the study could support regional scale adaptation strategies to ensure the sustainability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

Cumulative effects of multiple stressors impact an endangered seagrass population and fish communities.

Coastal ecosystems are becoming increasingly threatened by human activities and there is growing appreciation that management must consider the impacts of multiple stressors. Cumulative effects assessments (CEAs) have become a popular tool for identifying the distribution and intensity of multiple human stressors in coastal ecosystems. Few studies, however, have demonstrated strong correlations between CEAs and change in ecosystem condition, questioning its management use. Here, we apply a CEA to the endangered seagrass Posidonia australis in Pittwater, NSW, Australia, using spatial data on known stressors to seagrass related to foreshore development, water quality, vessel traffic and fishing. We tested how well cumulative effects scores explained changes in P. australis extent measured between 2005 and 2019 using high-resolution aerial imagery. A negative correlation between P. australis and estimated cumulative effects scores was observed (R2 = 22 %), and we identified a threshold of cumulative effects above which losses of P. australis became more likely. Using baited remote underwater video, we surveyed fishes over P. australis and non-vegetated sediments to infer and quantify how impacts of cumulative effects to P. australis extent would flow on to fish assemblages. P. australis contained a distinct assemblage of fish, and on non-vegetated sediments the abundance of sparids, which are of importance to fisheries, increased with closer proximity to P. australis. Our results demonstrate the negative impact of multiple stressors on P. australis and the consequences for fish biodiversity and fisheries production across much of the estuary. Management actions aimed at reducing or limiting cumulative effects to low and moderate levels will help conserve P. australis and its associated fish biodiversity and productivity.

Decadal dynamics of subtidal barrens habitat.

Rocky reef barrens that are devoid of macroalgae can be created by various mechanisms, and are often maintained in the long-term by grazing urchins. The persistence of barrens varies greatly among locations, although few studies have investigated the stability of this habitat over multiple decades, particularly at large spatial scales. We used aerial images to test for differences in temporal trajectories of shallow (2-10 m) barrens at 21 sites (average size 12 ha) over 30 years across 500 km of coastline in New South Wales, Australia. Longer-term (40-68 yr) trajectories of barrens cover were documented for five of the sites and these generally reflected the 30-year patterns. Averaged across all sites, barrens area increased at a rate of 19.9 ± 8.4 m2 per year per hectare of reef from 1980s-2010s. Importantly, however, 55% of sites had stable or fluctuating (±10% cover) barrens over this period, rather than displaying continual increases. Although the extent of shallow barrens increases with latitude, the temporal dynamics of barrens did not differ among three latitudinal regions where barrens are the most extensive. Associations between variability in barrens cover and environmental variables indicated that reef topography might pay a role in influencing barrens. Examples of such long-term persistence of extensive barrens are relatively rare and potential reasons for this and possible future changes are discussed.

Morphological variation of a rapidly spreading native macroalga across a range of spatial scales and its tolerance to sedimentation.

Understanding how species' traits can shape winners and losers of environmental change can help resolve drivers of current community composition patterns and predict future drivers. Sedimentation is one of the main environmental stressors shaping coastal marine communities and tolerance of high sedimentation rates (e.g. via morphological variation) may allow for competitive dominance. In New South Wales, Australia, the abundance and range of the native green macroalga Caulerpa filiformis have increased over recent decades, apparently associated with sediment disturbance. We used field measurements to test hypotheses about morphological variability in C. filiformis in relation to local- and large-scale environmental variation in water depth, sediment cover and latitude. Using a lab experiment, we tested hypotheses about survival and morphological change under different sedimentation regimes. In the field, C. filiformis fronds were more elongated and less branched when a sediment veneer is present and when water depth increased (i.e. reduced light). At larger spatial scales, frond length and width decreased with increased latitude, but latitude was less important in explaining the variation C. filiformis' length than were depth or sedimentation. Our lab experiment showed a high tolerance to sedimentation, aided by increased investment in vertical growth. This study shows that rapid morphological plasticity is a likely key attribute of the spreading native macroalga C. filiformis. We argue that having a broad environmental tolerance is key to define a species success under environmental change.

Differences in rocky reef habitats related to human disturbances across a latitudinal gradient.

This study tested for differences in the composition of intertidal and shallow subtidal rocky reef habitats subjected to a range of human pressures across ∼1000 km of coastline in New South Wales, Australia over 5 years. Percentage covers of habitats were sampled using aerial photography and a large grain size (20 m2 intertidal; 800 m2 subtidal) in a nested hierarchical design. Results were consistent with anthropogenic impacts on habitat structure only around estuaries with the most heavily urbanised or agriculturally-intense catchments. The most convincing relationships documented here related to environmental variables such as SST, latitude, reef width and proximity to large estuaries irrespective of human disturbance levels. Moreover, there were suggestions that any influences of estuarine waters (be they anthropogenic or natural) on reef assemblages could potentially extend 10s of kilometres from major estuaries. In general, our results supported those of studies that utilised smaller grain sizes (greatest variability often at smallest spatial scales), but we found that variability over scales of 100s of km can be similar to or greater than variability over scales of 10s of metres.

Habitat associations of an expanding native alga.

There are many examples of native macrophytes becoming locally dominant and spreading outside their traditional distributions, but the causes and impacts are often not understood. In New South Wales, Australia, the green alga Caulerpa filiformis is undergoing a range expansion and has transitioned from a subdominant to a dominant alga on several rocky shores around the Sydney coastline. Here we investigated relationships between established patches of C. filiformis, the habitat it occupies and associated algal communities at multiple subtidal sites over the green alga's 700 km range. We tested the following predictions: 1) C. filiformis cover differs among substrata, being greatest on turf-forming algae; 2) C. filiformis cover is positively related to environmental variables linked to increased sedimentation (e.g. reduced reef width, surface slope, increased rugosity and distance from shore); 3) occurrence of C. filiformis is associated with a change in macrophyte community structure and a reduction of macrophyte richness; 4) intact native algal canopies inhibit C. filiformis spread, but turf-forming algae and bare sand are susceptible to invasion. Substratum associations were highly consistent among sites, but contrary to our prediction, C. filiformis was most commonly associated with rock or rock + sand substratum and less frequently associated with turf-forming algae substratum. C. filiformis cover was negatively correlated with reef width, which explained most of the variation observed, although local scale variables distance from shore, reef slope, and water depth were also correlated with C. filiformis cover. Algal diversity and community composition typically differed in the presence of C. filiformis, often with a reduction of algal abundances, in particular Sargassum spp., although results varied among substrata and sites. However, monitoring of borders suggested that C. filiformis does not invade and outcompete undisturbed adjacent canopy-forming algae over a 12 month period. Our results suggest that disturbance processes (possibly linked to sedimentation) acting at the site and quadrat scale are likely important determinants of C. filiformis cover and spread, and hence its potential ecological impacts.

Extending the generality of ecological models to artificial floating habitats.

Marine assemblages on natural hard substrata are generally different from those on artificial habitats. There is, however, the potential for certain ecological processes to operate on both types of structures. On the sides of floating pontoons in Sydney Harbour, there were strong patterns of vertical distribution of sessile epibiotic organisms and molluscan grazers across relatively small spatial scales (in three defined zones, namely splash, shallow and deep). Patterns of vertical distribution of the tubeworms Hydroides spp. were reversed depending on the cover of mussels. A manipulative experiment was done to test if patterns of vertical distribution of Hydroides spp. were due to (1) the functioning of mussels or (2) the structure provided by mussels. Neither the functioning nor structure of mussels accounted for the patterns of distribution of Hydroides spp. Mussels increased recruitment of Hydroides spp., in the shallow and deep zones, and this was not due to increased surface area of the mussel shells. Manipulation of numbers of grazers and covers of sessile epibiota showed that the observed negative relationship between grazers and epibiota was due to grazers reducing recruitment of epibiota and epibiota decreasing survival of grazers. Most importantly, processes that accounted for patterns of distribution of mobile and sessile organisms on artificial floating structures were similar to those repeatedly shown to create such patterns on natural rocky shores.

Mechanisms influencing the spread of a native marine alga.

Like invasive macrophytes, some native macrophytes are spreading rapidly with consequences for community structure. There is evidence that the native alga Caulerpa filiformis is spreading along intertidal rocky shores in New South Wales, Australia, seemingly at the expense of native Sargassum spp. We experimentally investigated the role physical disturbance plays in the spread of C. filiformis and its possible consequences for Sargassum spp. Cleared patches within beds of C. filiformis (Caulerpa habitat) or Sargassum spp. (Sargassum habitat) at multiple sites showed that C. filiformis had significantly higher recruitment (via propagules) into its own habitat. The recruitment of Sargassum spp. to Caulerpa habitat was rare, possibly due in part to sediment accretion within Caulerpa habitat. Diversity of newly recruited epibiotic assemblages within Caulerpa habitat was significantly less than in Sargassum habitat. In addition, more C. filiformis than Sargassum spp. recruited to Sargassum habitat at some sites. On common boundaries between these two macroalgae, the vegetative growth of adjacent C. filiformis into cleared patches was significantly higher than for adjacent Sargassum spp. In both experiments, results were largely independent of the size of disturbance (clearing). Lastly, we used PAM fluorometry to show that the photosynthetic condition of Sargassum spp. fronds adjacent to C. filiformis was generally suppressed relative to those distant from C. filiformis. Thus, physical disturbance, combined with invasive traits (e.g. high levels of recruitment and vegetative growth) most likely facilitate the spread of C. filiformis, with the ramifications being lower epibiotic diversity and possibly reduced photosynthetic condition of co-occurring native macrophytes.

Comparing the invasibility of experimental "reefs" with field observations of natural reefs and artificial structures.

Natural systems are increasingly being modified by the addition of artificial habitats which may facilitate invasion. Where invaders are able to disperse from artificial habitats, their impact may spread to surrounding natural communities and therefore it is important to investigate potential factors that reduce or enhance invasibility. We surveyed the distribution of non-indigenous and native invertebrates and algae between artificial habitats and natural reefs in a marine subtidal system. We also deployed sandstone plates as experimental 'reefs' and manipulated the orientation, starting assemblage and degree of shading. Invertebrates (non-indigenous and native) appeared to be responding to similar environmental factors (e.g. orientation) and occupied most space on artificial structures and to a lesser extent reef walls. Non-indigenous invertebrates are less successful than native invertebrates on horizontal reefs despite functional similarities. Manipulative experiments revealed that even when non-indigenous invertebrates invade vertical "reefs", they are unlikely to gain a foothold and never exceed covers of native invertebrates (regardless of space availability). Community ecology suggests that invertebrates will dominate reef walls and algae horizontal reefs due to functional differences, however our surveys revealed that native algae dominate both vertical and horizontal reefs in shallow estuarine systems. Few non-indigenous algae were sampled in the study, however where invasive algal species are present in a system, they may present a threat to reef communities. Our findings suggest that non-indigenous species are less successful at occupying space on reef compared to artificial structures, and manipulations of biotic and abiotic conditions (primarily orientation and to a lesser extent biotic resistance) on experimental "reefs" explained a large portion of this variation, however they could not fully explain the magnitude of differences.