Evidence-based recommendations for gene-specific ACMG/AMP variant classification from the ClinGen ENIGMA BRCA1 and BRCA2 Variant Curation Expert Panel.

The ENIGMA research consortium develops and applies methods to determine clinical significance of variants in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer genes. An ENIGMA BRCA1/2 classification sub-group, formed in 2015 as a ClinGen external expert panel, evolved into a ClinGen internal Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) to align with Food and Drug Administration recognized processes for ClinVar contributions. The VCEP reviewed American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association of Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) classification criteria for relevance to interpreting BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants. Statistical methods were used to calibrate evidence strength for different data types. Pilot specifications were tested on 40 variants and documentation revised for clarity and ease of use. The original criterion descriptions for 13 evidence codes were considered non-applicable or overlapping with other criteria. Scenario of use was extended or re-purposed for eight codes. Extensive analysis and/or data review informed specification descriptions and weights for all codes. Specifications were applied to pilot variants with pre-existing ClinVar classification as follows: 13 uncertain significance or conflicting, 14 pathogenic and/or likely pathogenic, and 13 benign and/or likely benign. Review resolved classification for 11/13 uncertain significance or conflicting variants and retained or improved confidence in classification for the remaining variants. Alignment of pre-existing ENIGMA research classification processes with ACMG/AMP classification guidelines highlighted several gaps in the research processes and the baseline ACMG/AMP criteria. Calibration of evidence strength was key to justify utility and strength of different data types for gene-specific application. The gene-specific criteria demonstrated value for improving ACMG/AMP-aligned classification of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants.

Challenges and approaches to calibrating patient phenotype as evidence for cancer gene variant classification under ACMG/AMP guidelines.

Since first publication of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Medical Pathology (ACMG/AMP) variant classification guidelines, additional recommendations for application of certain criteria have been released (https://clinicalgenome.org/docs/), to improve their application in the diagnostic setting. However, none have addressed use of the PS4 and PP4 criteria, capturing patient presentation as evidence towards pathogenicity. Application of PS4 can be done through traditional case-control studies, or "proband counting" within or across clinical testing cohorts. Review of the existing PS4 and PP4 specifications for Hereditary Cancer Gene Variant Curation Expert Panels revealed substantial differences in the approach to defining specifications. Using BRCA1, BRCA2 and TP53 as exemplar genes, we calibrated different methods proposed for applying the "PS4 proband counting" criterion. For each approach, we considered limitations, non-independence with other ACMG/AMP criteria, broader applicability, and variability in results for different datasets. Our findings highlight inherent overlap of proband-counting methods with ACMG/AMP frequency codes, and the importance of calibration to derive dataset-specific code weights that can account for potential between-dataset differences in ascertainment and other factors. Our work emphasizes the advantages and generalizability of logistic regression analysis over simple proband-counting approaches to empirically determine the relative predictive capacity and weight of various personal clinical features in the context of multigene panel testing, for improved variant interpretation. We also provide a general protocol, including instructions for data formatting and a web-server for analysis of personal history parameters, to facilitate dataset-specific calibration analyses required to use such data for germline variant classification.

Comprehensive evaluation and efficient classification of BRCA1 RING domain missense substitutions.

BRCA1 is a high-risk susceptibility gene for breast and ovarian cancer. Pathogenic protein-truncating variants are scattered across the open reading frame, but all known missense substitutions that are pathogenic because of missense dysfunction are located in either the amino-terminal RING domain or the carboxy-terminal BRCT domain. Heterodimerization of the BRCA1 and BARD1 RING domains is a molecularly defined obligate activity. Hence, we tested every BRCA1 RING domain missense substitution that can be created by a single nucleotide change for heterodimerization with BARD1 in a mammalian two-hybrid assay. Downstream of the laboratory assay, we addressed three additional challenges: assay calibration, validation thereof, and integration of the calibrated results with other available data, such as computational evidence and patient/population observational data to achieve clinically applicable classification. Overall, we found that 15%-20% of BRCA1 RING domain missense substitutions are pathogenic. Using a Bayesian point system for data integration and variant classification, we achieved clinical classification of 89% of observed missense substitutions. Moreover, among missense substitutions not present in the human observational data used here, we find an additional 45 with concordant computational and functional assay evidence in favor of pathogenicity plus 223 with concordant evidence in favor of benignity; these are particularly likely to be classified as likely pathogenic and likely benign, respectively, once human observational data become available.

Strong functional data for pathogenicity or neutrality classify BRCA2 DNA-binding-domain variants of uncertain significance.

Determination of the clinical relevance of rare germline variants of uncertain significance (VUSs) in the BRCA2 cancer predisposition gene remains a challenge as a result of limited availability of data for use in classification models. However, laboratory-based functional data derived from validated functional assays of known sensitivity and specificity may influence the interpretation of VUSs. We evaluated 252 missense VUSs from the BRCA2 DNA-binding domain by using a homology-directed DNA repair (HDR) assay and identified 90 as non-functional and 162 as functional. The functional assay results were integrated with other available data sources into an ACMG/AMP rules-based classification framework used by a hereditary cancer testing laboratory. Of the 186 missense variants observed by the testing laboratory, 154 were classified as VUSs without functional data. However, after applying protein functional data, 86% (132/154) of the VUSs were reclassified as either likely pathogenic/pathogenic (39/132) or likely benign/benign (93/132), which impacted testing results for 1,900 individuals. These results indicate that validated functional assay data can have a substantial impact on VUS classification and associated clinical management for many individuals with inherited alterations in BRCA2.

Associations of height, body mass index, and weight gain with breast cancer risk in carriers of a pathogenic variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2: the BRCA1 and BRCA2 Cohort Consortium.

INTRODUCTION: Height, body mass index (BMI), and weight gain are associated with breast cancer risk in the general population. It is unclear whether these associations also exist for carriers of pathogenic variants in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An international pooled cohort of 8091 BRCA1/2 variant carriers was used for retrospective and prospective analyses separately for premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Cox regression was used to estimate breast cancer risk associations with height, BMI, and weight change. RESULTS: In the retrospective analysis, taller height was associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer for BRCA2 variant carriers (HR 1.20 per 10 cm increase, 95% CI 1.04-1.38). Higher young-adult BMI was associated with lower premenopausal breast cancer risk for both BRCA1 (HR 0.75 per 5 kg/m2, 95% CI 0.66-0.84) and BRCA2 (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.65-0.89) variant carriers in the retrospective analysis, with consistent, though not statistically significant, findings from the prospective analysis. In the prospective analysis, higher BMI and adult weight gain were associated with higher postmenopausal breast cancer risk for BRCA1 carriers (HR 1.20 per 5 kg/m2, 95% CI 1.02-1.42; and HR 1.10 per 5 kg weight gain, 95% CI 1.01-1.19, respectively). CONCLUSION: Anthropometric measures are associated with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant carriers, with relative risk estimates that are generally consistent with those for women from the general population.

Clinical, splicing, and functional analysis to classify BRCA2 exon 3 variants: Application of a points-based ACMG/AMP approach.

Skipping of BRCA2 exon 3 (∆E3) is a naturally occurring splicing event, complicating clinical classification of variants that may alter ∆E3 expression. This study used multiple evidence types to assess pathogenicity of 85 variants in/near BRCA2 exon 3. Bioinformatically predicted spliceogenic variants underwent mRNA splicing analysis using minigenes and/or patient samples. ∆E3 was measured using quantitative analysis. A mouse embryonic stem cell (mESC) based assay was used to determine the impact of 18 variants on mRNA splicing and protein function. For each variant, population frequency, bioinformatic predictions, clinical data, and existing mRNA splicing and functional results were collated. Variant class was assigned using a gene-specific adaptation of ACMG/AMP guidelines, following a recently proposed points-based system. mRNA and mESC analysis combined identified six variants with transcript and/or functional profiles interpreted as loss of function. Cryptic splice site use for acceptor site variants generated a transcript encoding a shorter protein that retains activity. Overall, 69/85 (81%) variants were classified using the points-based approach. Our analysis shows the value of applying gene-specific ACMG/AMP guidelines using a points-based approach and highlights the consideration of cryptic splice site usage to appropriately assign PVS1 code strength.

An updated quantitative model to classify missense variants in the TP53 gene: A novel multifactorial strategy.

Multigene panel testing has led to an increase in the number of variants of uncertain significance identified in the TP53 gene, associated with Li-Fraumeni syndrome. We previously developed a quantitative model for predicting the pathogenicity of P53 missense variants based on the combination of calibrated bioinformatic information and somatic to germline ratio. Here, we extended this quantitative model for the classification of P53 predicted missense variants by adding new pieces of evidence (personal and family history parameters, loss-of-function results, population allele frequency, healthy individual status by age 60, and breast tumor pathology). We also annotated which missense variants might have an effect on splicing based on bioinformatic predictions. This updated model plus annotation led to the classification of 805 variants into a clinically relevant class, which correlated well with existing ClinVar classifications, and resolved a large number of conflicting and uncertain classifications. We propose this model as a reliable approach to TP53 germline variant classification and emphasize its use in contributing to optimize TP53-specific ACMG/AMP guidelines.

Assessment of the Clinical Relevance of BRCA2 Missense Variants by Functional and Computational Approaches.

Many variants of uncertain significance (VUS) have been identified in BRCA2 through clinical genetic testing. VUS pose a significant clinical challenge because the contribution of these variants to cancer risk has not been determined. We conducted a comprehensive assessment of VUS in the BRCA2 C-terminal DNA binding domain (DBD) by using a validated functional assay of BRCA2 homologous recombination (HR) DNA-repair activity and defined a classifier of variant pathogenicity. Among 139 variants evaluated, 54 had ?99% probability of pathogenicity, and 73 had ?95% probability of neutrality. Functional assay results were compared with predictions of variant pathogenicity from the Align-GVGD protein-sequence-based prediction algorithm, which has been used for variant classification. Relative to the HR assay, Align-GVGD significantly (p < 0.05) over-predicted pathogenic variants. We subsequently combined functional and Align-GVGD prediction results in a Bayesian hierarchical model (VarCall) to estimate the overall probability of pathogenicity for each VUS. In addition, to predict the effects of all other BRCA2 DBD variants and to prioritize variants for functional studies, we used the endoPhenotype-Optimized Sequence Ensemble (ePOSE) algorithm to train classifiers for BRCA2 variants by using data from the HR functional assay. Together, the results show that systematic functional assays in combination with in silico predictors of pathogenicity provide robust tools for clinical annotation of BRCA2 VUS.

Integration of functional assay data results provides strong evidence for classification of hundreds of BRCA1 variants of uncertain significance.

PURPOSE: BRCA1 pathogenic variant heterozygotes are at a substantially increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer. The widespread uptake of testing has led to a significant increase in the detection of missense variants in BRCA1, the vast majority of which are variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUS), posing a challenge to genetic counseling. Here, we harness a wealth of functional data for thousands of variants to aid in variant classification. METHODS: We have collected, curated, and harmonized functional data for 2701 missense variants representing 24.5% of possible missense variants in BRCA1. Results were harmonized across studies by converting data into binary categorical variables (functional impact versus no functional impact). Using a panel of reference variants we identified a subset of assays with high sensitivity and specificity (≥80%) and apply the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) variant interpretation guidelines to assign evidence criteria for classification. RESULTS: Integration of data from validated assays provided ACMG/AMP evidence criteria in favor of pathogenicity for 297 variants or against pathogenicity for 2058 representing 96.2% of current VUS functionally assessed. We also explore discordant results and identify limitations in the approach. CONCLUSION: High quality functional data are available for BRCA1 missense variants and provide evidence for classification of 2355 VUS according to their pathogenicity.

The predictive ability of the 313 variant-based polygenic risk score for contralateral breast cancer risk prediction in women of European ancestry with a heterozygous BRCA1 or BRCA2 pathogenic variant.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between a previously published 313 variant-based breast cancer (BC) polygenic risk score (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk, in BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variant heterozygotes. METHODS: We included women of European ancestry with a prevalent first primary invasive BC (BRCA1 = 6,591 with 1,402 prevalent CBC cases; BRCA2 = 4,208 with 647 prevalent CBC cases) from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA), a large international retrospective series. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between overall and ER-specific PRS313 and CBC risk. RESULTS: For BRCA1 heterozygotes the estrogen receptor (ER)-negative PRS313 showed the largest association with CBC risk, hazard ratio (HR) per SD = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.06-1.18), C-index = 0.53; for BRCA2 heterozygotes, this was the ER-positive PRS313, HR = 1.15, 95% CI (1.07-1.25), C-index = 0.57. Adjusting for family history, age at diagnosis, treatment, or pathological characteristics for the first BC did not change association effect sizes. For women developing first BC < age 40 years, the cumulative PRS313 5th and 95th percentile 10-year CBC risks were 22% and 32% for BRCA1 and 13% and 23% for BRCA2 heterozygotes, respectively. CONCLUSION: The PRS313 can be used to refine individual CBC risks for BRCA1/2 heterozygotes of European ancestry, however the PRS313 needs to be considered in the context of a multifactorial risk model to evaluate whether it might influence clinical decision-making.

Oral contraceptive use and ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers: an international cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers has been shown to decrease with longer duration of oral contraceptive use. Although the effects of using oral contraceptives in the general population are well established (approximately 50% risk reduction in ovarian cancer), the estimated risk reduction in mutation carriers is much less precise because of potential bias and small sample sizes. In addition, only a few studies on oral contraceptive use have examined the associations of duration of use, time since last use, starting age, and calendar year of start with risk of ovarian cancer. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate in more detail the associations of various characteristics of oral contraceptive use and risk of ovarian cancer, to provide healthcare providers and carriers with better risk estimates. STUDY DESIGN: In this international retrospective study, ovarian cancer risk associations were assessed using oral contraceptives data on 3989 BRCA1 and 2445 BRCA2 mutation carriers. Age-dependent-weighted Cox regression analyses were stratified by study and birth cohort and included breast cancer diagnosis as a covariate. To minimize survival bias, analyses were left truncated at 5 years before baseline questionnaire. Separate analyses were conducted for each aspect of oral contraceptive use and in a multivariate analysis, including all these aspects. In addition, the analysis of duration of oral contraceptive use was stratified by recency of use. RESULTS: Oral contraceptives were less often used by mutation carriers who were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (ever use: 58.6% for BRCA1 and 53.5% BRCA2) than by unaffected carriers (ever use: 88.9% for BRCA1 and 80.7% for BRCA2). The median duration of use was 7 years for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers who developed ovarian cancer and 9 and 8 years for unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers with ovarian cancer, respectively. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, univariate analyses have shown that both a longer duration of oral contraceptive use and more recent oral contraceptive use were associated with a reduction in the risk of ovarian cancer. However, in multivariate analyses, including duration of use, age at first use, and time since last use, duration of oral contraceptive use proved to be the prominent protective factor (compared with <5 years: 5-9 years [hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-1.12]; >10 years [hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.73]; Ptrend=.008). The inverse association between duration of use and ovarian cancer risk persisted for more than 15 years (duration of ≥10 years; BRCA1 <15 years since last use [hazard ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.43]; BRCA1 >15 years since last use [hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.59]). Univariate results for BRCA2 mutation carriers were similar but were inconclusive because of limited sample size. CONCLUSION: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, longer duration of oral contraceptive use is associated with a greater reduction in ovarian cancer risk, and the protection is long term.

BRCA Challenge: BRCA Exchange as a global resource for variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2.

The BRCA Challenge is a long-term data-sharing project initiated within the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) to aggregate BRCA1 and BRCA2 data to support highly collaborative research activities. Its goal is to generate an informed and current understanding of the impact of genetic variation on cancer risk across the iconic cancer predisposition genes, BRCA1 and BRCA2. Initially, reported variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 available from public databases were integrated into a single, newly created site, www.brcaexchange.org. The purpose of the BRCA Exchange is to provide the community with a reliable and easily accessible record of variants interpreted for a high-penetrance phenotype. More than 20,000 variants have been aggregated, three times the number found in the next-largest public database at the project's outset, of which approximately 7,250 have expert classifications. The data set is based on shared information from existing clinical databases-Breast Cancer Information Core (BIC), ClinVar, and the Leiden Open Variation Database (LOVD)-as well as population databases, all linked to a single point of access. The BRCA Challenge has brought together the existing international Evidence-based Network for the Interpretation of Germline Mutant Alleles (ENIGMA) consortium expert panel, along with expert clinicians, diagnosticians, researchers, and database providers, all with a common goal of advancing our understanding of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variation. Ongoing work includes direct contact with national centers with access to BRCA1 and BRCA2 diagnostic data to encourage data sharing, development of methods suitable for extraction of genetic variation at the level of individual laboratory reports, and engagement with participant communities to enable a more comprehensive understanding of the clinical significance of genetic variation in BRCA1 and BRCA2.

Differences in patient ascertainment affect the use of gene-specified ACMG/AMP phenotype-related variant classification criteria: Evidence for TP53.

The American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) guidelines for variant classification are widely used for clinical interpretation of gene test results. These guidelines may be specified to genes/syndromes of interest to improve their utility in the clinical setting. As part of these specifications, phenotype-related criteria can be detailed and weighted depending on the personal history of disease for a given variant carrier. We investigated how ascertainment can affect the significance and/or weight of patient phenotype as a predictor of germline-variant pathogenicity, using the Li-Fraumeni Syndrome gene TP53 as an example. Likelihood ratios in favor of variant pathogenicity were determined for a report of the personal history of several TP53-related cancers, using data from 2,656 probands undergoing single-gene testing (SGT) and 15,483 undergoing multi-gene panel testing (MGPT). Overall, TP53-associated cancers were more predictive of pathogenicity, and demonstrated greater evidence weight, in the MGPT versus SGT dataset. This observation is almost certainly explained by differences in proband ascertainment for the two streams of testing, and these findings have implications for germline-variant classification using ACMG/AMP guidelines.

Mutation prevalence tables for hereditary cancer derived from multigene panel testing.

Multigene panel testing for cancer predisposition mutations is becoming routine in clinical care. However, the gene content of panels offered by testing laboratories vary significantly, and data on mutation detection rates by gene and by the panel is limited, causing confusion among clinicians on which test to order. Using results from 147,994 multigene panel tests conducted at Ambry Genetics, we built an interactive prevalence tool to explore how differences in ethnicity, age of onset, and personal and family history of different cancers affect the prevalence of pathogenic mutations in 31 cancer predisposition genes, across various clinically available hereditary cancer gene panels. Over 13,000 mutation carriers were identified in this high-risk population. Most were non-Hispanic white (74%, n = 109,537), but also Black (n = 10,875), Ashkenazi Jewish (n = 10,464), Hispanic (n = 10,028), and Asian (n = 7,090). The most prevalent cancer types were breast (50%), ovarian (6.6%), and colorectal (4.7%), which is expected based on genetic testing guidelines and clinician referral for testing. The Hereditary Cancer Multi-Gene Panel Prevalence Tool presented here can be used to provide insight into the prevalence of mutations on a per-gene and per-multigene panel basis, while conditioning on multiple custom phenotypic variables to include race and cancer type.

Considerations in assessing germline variant pathogenicity using cosegregation analysis.

PURPOSE: The American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and the Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP) have developed guidelines for classifying germline variants as pathogenic or benign to interpret genetic testing results. Cosegregation analysis is an important component of the guidelines. There are two main approaches for cosegregation analysis: meiosis counting and Bayes factor-based quantitative methods. Of these, the ACMG/AMP guidelines employ only meiosis counting. The accuracy of either approach has not been sufficiently addressed in previous works. METHODS: We analyzed hypothetical, simulated, and real-life data to evaluate the accuracy of each approach for cancer-associated genes. RESULTS: We demonstrate that meiosis counting can provide incorrect classifications when the underlying genetic basis of the disease departs from simple Mendelian situations. Some Bayes factor approaches are currently implemented with inappropriate penetrance. We propose an improved penetrance model and describe several critical considerations, including the accuracy of cosegregation for moderate-risk genes and the impact of pleiotropy, population, and birth year. We highlight a webserver, COOL (Co-segregation Online, http://BJFengLab.org/ ), that implements an accurate Bayes factor cosegregation analysis. CONCLUSION: An appropriate penetrance model improves the accuracy of Bayes factor cosegregation analysis for high-penetrant variants, and is a better choice than meiosis counting whenever feasible.

Classification of variants of uncertain significance in BRCA1 and BRCA2 using personal and family history of cancer from individuals in a large hereditary cancer multigene panel testing cohort.

PURPOSE: Genetic testing of individuals often results in identification of genomic variants of unknown significance (VUS). Multiple lines of evidence are used to help determine the clinical significance of these variants. METHODS: We analyzed ~138,000 individuals tested by multigene panel testing (MGPT). We used logistic regression to predict carrier status based on personal and family history of cancer. This was applied to 4644 tested individuals carrying 2383 BRCA1/2 variants to calculate likelihood ratios informing pathogenicity for each. Heterogeneity tests were performed for specific classes of variants defined by in silico predictions. RESULTS: Twenty-two variants labeled as VUS had odds of >10:1 in favor of pathogenicity. The heterogeneity analysis found that among variants in functional domains that were predicted to be benign by in silico tools, a significantly higher proportion of variants were estimated to be pathogenic than previously indicated; that missense variants outside of functional domains should be considered benign; and that variants predicted to create de novo donor sites were also largely benign. CONCLUSION: The evidence presented here supports the use of personal and family history from MGPT in the classification of VUS and will be integrated into ongoing efforts to provide large-scale multifactorial classification.

A clinical guide to hereditary cancer panel testing: evaluation of gene-specific cancer associations and sensitivity of genetic testing criteria in a cohort of 165,000 high-risk patients.

PURPOSE: Despite the rapid uptake of multigene panel testing (MGPT) for hereditary cancer predisposition, there is limited guidance surrounding indications for testing and genes to include. METHODS: To inform the clinical approach to hereditary cancer MGPT, we comprehensively evaluated 32 cancer predisposition genes by assessing phenotype-specific pathogenic variant (PV) frequencies, cancer risk associations, and performance of genetic testing criteria in a cohort of 165,000 patients referred for MGPT. RESULTS: We identified extensive genetic heterogeneity surrounding predisposition to cancer types commonly referred for germline testing (breast, ovarian, colorectal, uterine/endometrial, pancreatic, and melanoma). PV frequencies were highest among patients with ovarian cancer (13.8%) and lowest among patients with melanoma (8.1%). Fewer than half of PVs identified in patients meeting testing criteria for only BRCA1/2 or only Lynch syndrome occurred in the respective genes (33.1% and 46.2%). In addition, 5.8% of patients with PVs in BRCA1/2 and 26.9% of patients with PVs in Lynch syndrome genes did not meet respective testing criteria. CONCLUSION: Opportunities to improve upon identification of patients at risk for hereditary cancer predisposition include revising BRCA1/2 and Lynch syndrome testing criteria to include additional clinically actionable genes with overlapping phenotypes and relaxing testing criteria for associated cancers.

10-year performance of four models of breast cancer risk: a validation study.

BACKGROUND: Independent validation is essential to justify use of models of breast cancer risk prediction and inform decisions about prevention options and screening. Few independent validations had been done using cohorts for common breast cancer risk prediction models, and those that have been done had small sample sizes and short follow-up periods, and used earlier versions of the prediction tools. We aimed to validate the relative performance of four commonly used models of breast cancer risk and assess the effect of limited data input on each one's performance. METHODS: In this validation study, we used the Breast Cancer Prospective Family Study Cohort (ProF-SC), which includes 18 856 women from Australia, Canada, and the USA who did not have breast cancer at recruitment, between March 17, 1992, and June 29, 2011. We selected women from the cohort who were 20-70 years old and had no previous history of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy or ovarian cancer, at least 2 months of follow-up data, and information available about family history of breast cancer. We used this selected cohort to calculate 10-year risk scores and compare four models of breast cancer risk prediction: the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm model (BOADICEA), BRCAPRO, the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), and the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study model (IBIS). We compared model calibration based on the ratio of the expected number of breast cancer cases to the observed number of breast cancer cases in the cohort, and on the basis of their discriminatory ability to separate those who will and will not have breast cancer diagnosed within 10 years as measured with the concordance statistic (C-statistic). We did subgroup analyses to compare the performance of the models at 10 years in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers (ie, BRCA-positive women), tested non-carriers and untested participants (ie, BRCA-negative women), and participants younger than 50 years at recruitment. We also assessed the effect that limited data input (eg, restriction of the amount of family history and non-genetic information included) had on the models' performance. FINDINGS: After median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 6·0-14·4), 619 (4%) of 15 732 women selected from the ProF-SC cohort study were prospectively diagnosed with breast cancer after recruitment, of whom 519 (84%) had histologically confirmed disease. BOADICEA and IBIS were well calibrated in the overall validation cohort, whereas BRCAPRO and BCRAT underpredicted risk (ratio of expected cases to observed cases 1·05 [95% CI 0·97-1·14] for BOADICEA, 1·03 [0·96-1·12] for IBIS, 0·59 [0·55-0·64] for BRCAPRO, and 0·79 [0·73-0·85] for BRCAT). The estimated C-statistics for the complete validation cohort were 0·70 (95% CI 0·68-0·72) for BOADICEA, 0·71 (0·69-0·73) for IBIS, 0·68 (0·65-0·70) for BRCAPRO, and 0·60 (0·58-0·62) for BCRAT. In subgroup analyses by BRCA mutation status, the ratio of expected to observed cases for BRCA-negative women was 1·02 (95% CI 0·93-1·12) for BOADICEA, 1·00 (0·92-1·10) for IBIS, 0·53 (0·49-0·58) for BRCAPRO, and 0·97 (0·89-1·06) for BCRAT. For BRCA-positive participants, BOADICEA and IBIS were well calibrated, but BRCAPRO underpredicted risk (ratio of expected to observed cases 1·17 [95% CI 0·99-1·38] for BOADICEA, 1·14 [0·96-1·35] for IBIS, and 0·80 [0·68-0·95] for BRCAPRO). We noted similar patterns of calibration for women younger than 50 years at recruitment. Finally, BOADICEA and IBIS predictive scores were not appreciably affected by limiting input data to family history for first-degree and second-degree relatives. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that models that include multigenerational family history, such as BOADICEA and IBIS, have better ability to predict breast cancer risk, even for women at average or below-average risk of breast cancer. Although BOADICEA and IBIS performed similarly, further improvements in the accuracy of predictions could be possible with hybrid models that incorporate the polygenic risk component of BOADICEA and the non-family-history risk factors included in IBIS. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium, Cancer Australia, National Breast Cancer Foundation, Queensland Cancer Fund, Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia, and Cancer Foundation of Western Australia.

Assessment of blind predictions of the clinical significance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants.

Testing for variation in BRCA1 and BRCA2 (commonly referred to as BRCA1/2), has emerged as a standard clinical practice and is helping countless women better understand and manage their heritable risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Yet the increased rate of BRCA1/2 testing has led to an increasing number of Variants of Uncertain Significance (VUS), and the rate of VUS discovery currently outpaces the rate of clinical variant interpretation. Computational prediction is a key component of the variant interpretation pipeline. In the CAGI5 ENIGMA Challenge, six prediction teams submitted predictions on 326 newly-interpreted variants from the ENIGMA Consortium. By evaluating these predictions against the new interpretations, we have gained a number of insights on the state of the art of variant prediction and specific steps to further advance this state of the art.

Comprehensive annotation of BRCA1 and BRCA2 missense variants by functionally validated sequence-based computational prediction models.

PURPOSE: To improve methods for predicting the impact of missense variants of uncertain significance (VUS) in BRCA1 and BRCA2 on protein function. METHODS: Functional data for 248 BRCA1 and 207 BRCA2 variants from assays with established high sensitivity and specificity for damaging variants were used to recalibrate 40 in silico algorithms predicting the impact of variants on protein activity. Additional random forest (RF) and naïve voting method (NVM) metapredictors for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 were developed to increase predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Optimized thresholds for in silico prediction models significantly improved the accuracy of predicted functional effects for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants. In addition, new BRCA1-RF and BRCA2-RF metapredictors showed area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.96) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.84-0.95), respectively. Similarly, the BRCA1-NVM and BRCA2-NVM models had AUCs of 0.93 and 0.90. The RF and NVM models were used to predict the pathogenicity of all possible missense variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated algorithms and new metapredictors significantly improved upon current models for predicting the impact of variants in cancer risk-associated domains of BRCA1 and BRCA2. Prediction of the functional impact of all possible variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 provides important information about the clinical relevance of variants in these genes.