Relative risks and benefits of long-term estrogen replacement therapy: a decision analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relative risks and benefits of exogenous estrogen use among women entering the climacteric and to consider estrogen use for relief of symptoms or prevention of disease. METHODS: Decision analysis was used to assess the value of estrogen replacement therapy in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 women assumed to be age 50 years; health outcomes were extrapolated to age 75. Risk ratios for mortality and morbidity of health outcomes associated with the use of estrogen replacement therapy were based on longitudinal studies reported in the literature. RESULTS: Estrogen use for 25 years would decrease fatal coronary heart disease events by 48% (567 cases), decrease deaths from hip fracture by 49% (75), increase deaths from breast cancer by 21% (39), and increase deaths from endometrial cancer by 207% (29 excess deaths). On balance, 25 years of estrogen replacement therapy in a cohort of 10,000 women would prevent 574 deaths. Further, women using estrogens for 25 years would gain 3951 quality-adjusted life years compared with women not using estrogens. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the benefits of estrogen replacement therapy outweight the risks under most assumptions. CONCLUSION: In a hypothetical, population-based analysis, the health benefits of postmenopausal estrogen replacement exceed the health risks incurred. Nevertheless, clinicians must still evaluate each individual's risks and needs.

The 25-year health care costs of women who remain overweight after 40 years of age.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previously published reports strongly suggest that being overweight is a risk factor for coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, gallstones, and osteoarthritis in women. Substantial health care and medication costs are associated with these chronic health conditions. We used an incidence-based analysis to estimate the excess costs associated with women maintaining an overweight status during the 25-year period from age 40 to 65 years. METHODS: The health care costs of three hypothetical cohorts of 10,000 40-year-old women were extrapolated to age 65. The non-overweight cohort maintained a body mass index (BMI; weight [kg]/height [m2]) of 21 to 24.9; the moderately overweight cohort maintained a BMI of 25 to 28.9; the severely overweight cohort maintained a BMI of > or = 29. The number of fatal and nonfatal health outcomes in each cohort for heart disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, gallstones, and osteoarthritis was calculated with their associated costs. RESULTS: We estimated that when compared with the non-overweight cohort of 10,000 women, the cohort of 10,000 women who had a BMI of > or = 29 incurred excess costs of $53 million over a 25 year period (discounted at 3% per year) and 497 excess deaths. The cohort of 10,000 women who had a BMI of 25-28.9 incurred excess costs of $22 million (discounted at 3% per year) and 212 excess deaths, compared with the non-overweight cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that an estimated $16 billion will be spent during the next 25 years treating health outcomes associated with overweight in middle-aged women in the United States. Thus, a substantial health burden is associated with the increasing prevalence of overweight women in the United States. Preventing excess coronary heart disease, gall-stones, osteoarthritis, hypertension, and diabetes through prevention of weight gain, particularly among reproductive-aged women, may be a cost-effective strategy.

The cost effectiveness of prenatal care in reducing low birth weight in New Hampshire.

This study calculates the cost effectiveness of adequate prenatal care in reducing the low birth weight rate for each of three socioeconomic groups of women: those with less than 12 years of education, those with 12 years, and those with more than 12 years. Target low birth weight rates for each group were those actually achieved by New Hampshire women receiving adequate prenatal care within respective education groups. The estimated total cost associated with low birth weight births among the 1981-1984 cohort of New Hampshire resident births was more than $38 million. With universal adequate prenatal care, the low birth weight costs would be less than $32 million, a cost savings of $6.5 million. Since the additional cost of providing adequate prenatal care to all women was estimated to be $2.5 million, the net cost savings were estimated to be $4 million, or $1 million per year. For each additional $1 spent on prenatal care, $2.57 in medical care costs would be saved.

A method to measure the costs of counseling for HIV prevention.

This paper describes a method for estimating the true resource costs of counseling for HIV prevention. The method includes identifying the resources used in counseling, determining the true unit costs of the resources used, and calculating the total costs of counseling. Cost equations and sample calculations of total and expected costs per client in a specified time period are provided. This method of estimating costs provides a systematic application of a standard set of procedures, including sample tables and calculations. It uses the societal perspective on resource cost to determine true resource costs. This method can be used for resource allocation decisions among programs and as inputs for cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses. Since the method minimizes the burden of data collection and calculations, it is useful for the nonspecialist in cost analysis. The method provides a rational approach for realistic decision making and planning in public health.

Counseling and testing for HIV prevention: costs, effects, and cost-effectiveness of more rapid screening tests.

New rapid human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody tests permit many individuals to receive test results and appropriate counseling at one clinic visit. Because currently used tests require significant time for processing, all individuals must return for a second visit for test results and counseling. Since return rates for the second visit are low, the more rapid tests present an opportunity to improve the efficiency of HIV counseling and testing. The authors compared the costs and effectiveness of the currently used counseling and testing procedure and a streamlined procedure made possible by the new, more rapid screening tests. When test-positive clients are given preliminary screening test results, the rapid procedure is more cost-effective than the current procedure. Since over 90% of the clients in most clinics will test negative, the rapid counseling and testing procedure allows the vast majority of clients to be counseled and tested and to receive their results and posttest counseling in one visit. However, in the case where the goal of HIV counseling and testing is to focus only on infected individuals, if information regarding a positive result from the rapid screening test is not given to clients at the initial visit before a confirmatory test is performed, then the rapid counseling and testing procedure is not more cost-effective than the current procedure.

Preventing perinatal transmission of HIV--costs and effectiveness of a recommended intervention.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the national costs of reducing perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus through counseling and voluntary testing of pregnant women and zidovudine treatment of infected women and their infants, as recommended by the Public Health Service, and to compare these costs with the savings from reducing the number of pediatric infections. METHOD: The authors analyzed the estimated costs of the intervention and the estimated cost savings from reducing the number of pediatric infections. The outcome measures are the number of infections prevented by the intervention and the net cost (cost of intervention minus the savings from a reduced number of pediatric HIV infections). The base model assumed that intervention participation and outcomes would resemble those found in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Protocol 076. Assumptions were varied regarding maternal seroprevalence, participation by HIV-infected women, the proportion of infected women who accepted and completed the treatment, and the efficacy of zidovudine to illustrate the effect of these assumptions on infections prevented and net cost. RESULTS: Without the intervention, a perinatal HIV transmission rate of 25% would result in 1750 HIV-infected infants born annually in the United States, with lifetime medical-care costs estimated at $282 million. The cost of the intervention (counseling, testing, and zidovudine treatment) was estimated to be $ 67.6 million. In the base model, the intervention would prevent 656 pediatric HIV infections with a medical care cost saving of $105.6 million. The net cost saving of the intervention was $38.1 million. CONCLUSION: Voluntary HIV screening of pregnant women and ziovudine treatment for infected women and their infants resulted in cost savings under most of the assumptions used in this analysis. These results strongly support implementation of the Public Health Service recommendations for this intervention.

Costs to business for an HIV-infected worker.

We use a Markov model to calculate the expected medical, disability, employee replacement, life insurance, and pension costs to a business firm for an HIV-infected employee. This analysis differs from previous HIV/AIDS cost analyses because we take the perspective of a business firm rather than of society, and we focus on the expected costs over a time frame relevant for business decision making. The maximum expected five-year cost to a business firm for an HIV-infected employee is estimated at $32,000, with an average expected cost of $17,000. These expected employment-based costs are less than the lifetime medical AIDS costs to society for an individual, which are estimated at more than $85,000. Employment-based costs are most influenced by the type of benefits provided under employer-based health insurance plans.

Benefits and costs of using an orally absorbed vaccine to control rabies in raccoons.

In November 1989, the epizootic of rabies affecting raccoons in the mid-Atlantic states reached New Jersey. An economic evaluation was conducted in 2 counties first affected by the epizootic to estimate the costs of the epizootic and to assess the costs and benefits of orally administering a newly developed recombinant rabies vaccine to prevent further spread of the disease. Data on expenditures associated with prevention of rabies in human beings and domestic animals and laboratory testing of suspect animals were collected and analyzed for 1988 (before the epizootic) and 1990 (first full year of the epizootic). Benefit-cost ratios were calculated and used to evaluate the economic advisability of the vaccine at various vaccination program alternatives. Two indices of capital investment analysis, payback period and net present value, were used to evaluate the economic benefits of the rabies vaccine. Expenditures were estimated to be $1,952,014 in 1990 (primarily for pet animal vaccinations), compared with $768,488 in 1988. Benefit-cost ratios ranged from 2.21 for the most expensive vaccination program alternative to 6.80 for the least expensive alternative. The payback period varied from 0.69 to 2.11 years, and the net present value ranged from $2,105,453 to $4,877,452. The high costs of this epizootic necessitated the reallocation of scarce public health resources to various rabies prevention activities, particularly the vaccination of dogs. This study also demonstrated the usefulness of benefit-cost analysis in developing public health strategies. Although the mass application of this recombinant vaccine was found to be economically beneficial, other qualitative considerations must be used to supplement these findings.

Integrating a curriculum: the role and function of a capstone course.

The rationale for establishing a strategy to integrate learning within a health administration curriculum is presented. Strengths and weaknesses associated with six models are presented which examine the student, market, internship/practicum, case course, and thesis/major paper as integrators as well as the self-integrating curriculum. The capstone course is presented as a hybrid of multiple models with a unique educational philosophy. The concept of the capstone course is examined with specific reference to design parameters associated with the capstone course used in the health management and policy curriculum at the University of New Hampshire. Suggestions and issues for faculty to consider as they develop a capstone course are also included.

The mortality, morbidity, and economic costs of alcohol abuse in New Hampshire.

Since alcoholism and alcohol abuse are the number one health problem in the United States, community-based estimates of mortality, morbidity, and economic costs associated with alcohol abuse are needed to convey their impact in local areas. In the state of New Hampshire, data were collected on alcohol consumption patterns, alcohol-associated mortality, years of potential life lost, hospital days associated with alcohol-related diagnoses, direct medical care costs, employment levels, and per capita incomes. Alcohol-attributable mortality and morbidity percentages were applied to these data to estimate the effects of alcohol abuse. In 1983, alcohol was associated with 4% of total statewide deaths. These included 37% of the deaths due to injury, 26% of the deaths due to digestive disease, and 3% of the deaths due to cancer. These deaths represented over 6,000 years of potential life lost. Between 4 and 7% of hospital days were attributable to alcohol-related diagnoses. Direct medical care costs attributable to alcohol were over $101 million; 10% of the direct medical costs in the state. Indirect costs (present value of lost earnings due to premature mortality and morbidity associated with alcohol) represented over $142 million. Property damage and insurance costs associated with alcohol were almost $13 million, and alcohol-related arrests added another $17 million. Excess absenteeism due to alcohol abuse cost another $33 million and lost productivity at work cost over $278 million. These economic costs totaled almost $600 million, or 5% of the gross state product. The methodology used to obtain these results is easily applied and is shown in the Appendix.

The morbidity, mortality, and economic costs of cigarette smoking in New Hampshire.

The Surgeon General of the United States Public Health Service has identified cigarette smoking as the single most important source of preventable morbidity and premature mortality. An analysis was conducted in the state of New Hampshire to determine the consequences of smoking: morbidity, mortality, and economic costs to the population. Data were collected on smoking prevalence, smoking attributed deaths, years of potential life lost, hospital days attributed to smoking diagnoses, direct medical costs, and per capita incomes. Smoking attributable fractions were applied to these data. In 1983, 16% of total statewide deaths were attributable to cigarette smoking. These deaths included 15% of the cardiovascular deaths, 20% of cancer deaths, 42% of respiratory disease deaths, 3% of digestive disease deaths, and 5% of infant deaths, in a population of less than 1 million. These deaths represented almost 3100 years of potential life lost. Smoking attributable hospital days totaled almost 70,000, for 8% of male and 4% of female hospital days. Direct medical care costs attributable to cigarette smoking were over $76 million, 7% of the total statewide medical costs. Indirect costs (present value of lost earnings due to premature mortality and morbidity attributable to smoking) were almost $118 million. These economic costs totaled almost $200 million. The results of this study were used extensively by the New Hampshire media and volunteer agencies. This methodology can be a model for other local area analyses.

Prevention of HIV infection in drug abusers: a cost analysis.

BACKGROUND: Counseling and testing for HIV infection is performed at many sites, including drug treatment centers. The actual cost of providing HIV counseling and testing at drug treatment sites, based upon empirical data collection, has not been reported. The average lifetime medical cost for an HIV-infected individual is $56,000. This study provides both a systematic method for estimating HIV counseling and testing costs and actual cost results. These results can be compared with the medical costs associated with HIV infection. METHODS: At three publicly funded methadone treatment centers, we collected cost data on the provision of HIV counseling and testing. We obtained provider service times for HIV counseling and testing components, provider salaries and fringe rates, laboratory costs, and support costs at each center. RESULTS: The average cost of HIV counseling and testing is $215 per client entering HIV counseling and testing and $341 per client made aware of HIV serostatus. The total direct cost of providing HIV counseling and testing is $41 for an HIV-negative client who completes the process and $57 for an HIV-positive client; the support costs add an additional $175 per client. CONCLUSIONS: Existing methadone maintenance treatment clinics planning to add HIV counseling and testing can expect costs in a range of $189 to $242 per person entering HIV counseling and testing (1991 dollars). Using an average lifetime cost of HIV infection ($56,000) and the average cost per person entering HIV counseling and testing ($215), if more than 1 person in 260 changes his or her behavior to prevent one additional HIV infection, the ratio of medical care savings to costs of counseling and testing would be greater than 1.0, a cost-saving prevention strategy.

Should college students be vaccinated against meningococcal disease? A cost-benefit analysis.

Outbreaks and sporadic cases of meningococcal disease among college students have prompted consideration of a policy of routine vaccination for this group. Purchase and administration of the vaccine for routine vaccination would cost $56 million per year. Savings in medical care and indirect costs would not equal this amount unless the annual rate of disease among students is at least 6.5/100,000. The actual rate among students is unknown; however, surveillance data suggest it could not be more than 1.3/100,000. At rates near this estimate, the net cost of the program would be approximately $45 million annually. More cost-effective prevention strategies might be yielded by further studies to identify students at substantial risk of meningococcal disease, or by the development of a conjugate serogroup C vaccine that could be administered during infancy.

Control of epidemic early syphilis: the results of an intervention campaign using social networks.

BACKGROUND: During an epidemic of early syphilis, social networks were used for an intervention campaign. GOAL OF THIS STUDY: To characterize the epidemic and describe the yield of new cases from index-case interviews. METHODS: Analyses of morbidity data collected by the Montgomery County, Alabama, sexually transmitted disease program determined the course of the epidemic and characterized the new case yields from social networks identified via index-case interviews (partner notification investigations) and interviews with sex partners and their associates (cluster investigations). Results and costs were compared to a noncampaign period. RESULTS: The number of reported syphilis cases nearly doubled from 1990 to 1991 (201 to 348 per 100,000 residents). During the 21-week campaign, 373 case-patients had partner notification/cluster investigations; 113 (11%) of 984 sex partners and 41 (3%) of 1,146 high-risk associates (persons identified during cluster investigations) had syphilis. No subgroup of case-patients for which the partner notification/cluster investigation yielded more infected persons than other subgroups was identified. The cost per case detected was more than twice that during a noncampaign period ($1,627 vs. $771). CONCLUSION: Partner notification investigations yielded more infected persons than cluster investigations. Further evaluation is needed to determine the role of intense partner notification/cluster investigators' efforts in the control of epidemic syphilis.