Amiodarone prevents wave front-tail interactions in patients with heart failure: an in silico study.

Amiodarone (AM) is an antiarrhythmic drug whose chronic use has proved effective in preventing ventricular arrhythmias in a variety of patient populations, including those with heart failure (HF). AM has both class III [i.e., it prolongs the action potential duration (APD) via blocking potassium channels) and class I (i.e., it affects the rapid sodium channel) properties; however, the specific mechanism(s) by which it prevents reentry formation in patients with HF remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that AM prevents reentry induction in HF during programmed electrical stimulation (PES) via its ability to induce postrepolarization refractoriness (PRR) via its class I effects on sodium channels. Here we extend our previous human action potential model to represent the effects of both HF and AM separately by calibrating to human tissue and clinical PES data, respectively. We then combine these models (HF + AM) to test our hypothesis. Results from simulations in cells and cables suggest that AM acts to increase PRR and decrease the elevation of takeoff potential. The ability of AM to prevent reentry was studied in silico in two-dimensional sheets in which a variety of APD gradients (ΔAPD) were imposed. Reentrant activity was induced in all HF simulations but was prevented in 23 of 24 HF + AM models. Eliminating the AM-induced slowing of the recovery of inactivation of the sodium channel restored the ability to induce reentry. In conclusion, in silico testing suggests that chronic AM treatment prevents reentry induction in patients with HF during PES via its class I effect to induce PRR.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This work presents a new model of the action potential of the human, which reproduces the complex dynamics during premature stimulation in heart failure patients with and without amiodarone. A specific mechanism of the ability of amiodarone to prevent reentrant arrhythmias is presented.

Credibility assessment of patient-specific computational modeling using patient-specific cardiac modeling as an exemplar.

Reliable and robust simulation of individual patients using patient-specific models (PSMs) is one of the next frontiers for modeling and simulation (M&S) in healthcare. PSMs, which form the basis of digital twins, can be employed as clinical tools to, for example, assess disease state, predict response to therapy, or optimize therapy. They may also be used to construct virtual cohorts of patients, for in silico evaluation of medical product safety and/or performance. Methods and frameworks have recently been proposed for evaluating the credibility of M&S in healthcare applications. However, such efforts have generally been motivated by models of medical devices or generic patient models; how best to evaluate the credibility of PSMs has largely been unexplored. The aim of this paper is to understand and demonstrate the credibility assessment process for PSMs using patient-specific cardiac electrophysiological (EP) modeling as an exemplar. We first review approaches used to generate cardiac PSMs and consider how verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) apply to cardiac PSMs. Next, we execute two simulation studies using a publicly available virtual cohort of 24 patient-specific ventricular models, the first a multi-patient verification study, the second investigating the impact of uncertainty in personalized and non-personalized inputs in a virtual cohort. We then use the findings from our analyses to identify how important characteristics of PSMs can be considered when assessing credibility with the approach of the ASME V&V40 Standard, accounting for PSM concepts such as inter- and intra-user variability, multi-patient and "every-patient" error estimation, uncertainty quantification in personalized vs non-personalized inputs, clinical validation, and others. The results of this paper will be useful to developers of cardiac and other medical image based PSMs, when assessing PSM credibility.

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation.

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. METHODS: The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC's in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow [Formula: see text], maximum aortic root flow [Formula: see text], average LVAD flow [Formula: see text], and maximum LVAD flow [Formula: see text]); (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. RESULTS: Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. CONCLUSIONS: This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

Benchtop Models of Patient-Specific Intraventricular Flow During Heart Failure and LVAD Support.

The characterization of intraventricular flow is critical to evaluate the efficiency of fluid transport and potential thromboembolic risk but challenging to measure directly in advanced heart failure (HF) patients with left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support. The study aims to validate an in-house mock loop (ML) by simulating specific conditions of HF patients with normal and prosthetic mitral valves (MV) and LVAD patients with small and dilated left ventricle volumes, then comparing the flow-related indices result of vortex parameters, residence time (RT), and shear-activation potential (SAP). Patient-specific inputs for the ML studies included heart rate, end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, ejection fraction, aortic pressure, E/A ratio, and LVAD speed. The ML effectively replicated vortex development and circulation patterns, as well as RT, particularly for HF patient cases. The LVAD velocity fields reflected altered flow paths, in which all or most incoming blood formed a dominant stream directing flow straight from the mitral valve to the apex. RT estimation of patient and ML compared well for all conditions, but SAP was substantially higher in the LVAD cases of the ML. The benchtop system generated comparable and reproducible hemodynamics and fluid dynamics for patient-specific conditions, validating its reliability and clinical relevance. This study demonstrated that ML is a suitable platform to investigate the fluid dynamics of HF and LVAD patients and can be utilized to investigate heart-implant interactions.

A model for human action potential dynamics in vivo.

Computational modeling based on experimental data remains an important component in cardiac electrophysiological research, especially because clinical data such as human action potential (AP) dynamics are scarce or limited by practical or ethical concerns. Such modeling has been used to develop and test a variety of mechanistic hypotheses, with the majority of these studies involving the rate dependence of AP duration (APD) including APD restitution and conduction velocity (CV). However, there is very little information regarding the complex dynamics at the boundary of repolarization (or refractoriness) and reexcitability. Here, we developed a "minimal" ionic model of the human AP, based on in vivo human monophasic AP (MAP) recordings obtained during clinical programmed electrical stimulation (PES) to address the progressive decrease in AP take-off potential (TOP) and associated CV slowing seen during three tightly spaced extrastimuli. Recent voltage-clamp data demonstrating the effect of intracellular calcium on sodium current availability were incorporated and were required to reproduce large (>15 mV) elevations in take-off potential and progressive encroachment. Introducing clinically observed APD gradients into the model enabled us to replicate the dynamic response to PES in patients leading to conduction block and reentry formation for the positive, but not the negative, APD gradient. Finally, we modeled the dynamics of reentry and show that spiral waves follow a meandering trajectory with a period of ~180 ms. We conclude that our model reproduces a variety of electrophysiological behavior including the response to sequential premature stimuli and provides a basis for studies of the initiation of reentry in human ventricular tissue.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This work presents a new model of the action potential of the human which reproduces the complex dynamics during premature stimulation in patients.

The role of conductivity discontinuities in design of cardiac defibrillation.

Fibrillation is an erratic electrical state of the heart, of rapid twitching rather than organized contractions. Ventricular fibrillation is fatal if not treated promptly. The standard treatment, defibrillation, is a strong electrical shock to reinitialize the electrical dynamics and allow a normal heart beat. Both the normal and the fibrillatory electrical dynamics of the heart are organized into moving wave fronts of changing electrical signals, especially in the transmembrane voltage, which is the potential difference between the cardiac cellular interior and the intracellular region of the heart. In a normal heart beat, the wave front motion is from bottom to top and is accompanied by the release of Ca ions to induce contractions and pump the blood. In a fibrillatory state, these wave fronts are organized into rotating scroll waves, with a centerline known as a filament. Treatment requires altering the electrical state of the heart through an externally applied electrical shock, in a manner that precludes the existence of the filaments and scroll waves. Detailed mechanisms for the success of this treatment are partially understood, and involve local shock-induced changes in the transmembrane potential, known as virtual electrode alterations. These transmembrane alterations are located at boundaries of the cardiac tissue, including blood vessels and the heart chamber wall, where discontinuities in electrical conductivity occur. The primary focus of this paper is the defibrillation shock and the subsequent electrical phenomena it induces. Six partially overlapping causal factors for defibrillation success are identified from the literature. We present evidence in favor of five of these and against one of them. A major conclusion is that a dynamically growing wave front starting at the heart surface appears to play a primary role during defibrillation by critically reducing the volume available to sustain the dynamic motion of scroll waves; in contrast, virtual electrodes occurring at the boundaries of small, isolated blood vessels only cause minor effects. As a consequence, we suggest that the size of the heart (specifically, the surface to volume ratio) is an important defibrillation variable.

Mechanism for Amplitude Alternans in Electrocardiograms and the Initiation of Spatiotemporal Chaos.

It is widely believed that one major life-threatening transition to chaotic fibrillation occurs via spiral-wave breakup that is preceded by spatiotemporal dispersion of refractoriness due to alternations in the duration of the cardiac action potential (AP). However, recent clinical and experimental evidence suggests that other characteristics of the AP may contribute to, and perhaps drive, this dangerous dynamical instability. To identify the relative roles of AP characteristics, we performed experiments in rabbit hearts under conditions to minimize AP duration dynamics which unmasked pronounced AP amplitude alternans just before the onset of fibrillation. We used a simplified ionic cell model to derive a return map and a stability condition that elucidates a novel underlying mechanism for AP alternans and spiral breakup. We found that inactivation of the sodium current is key to developing amplitude alternans and is directly connected to conduction block and initiation of arrhythmias. Simulations in 2D where AP amplitude alternation led to turbulence confirm our hypothesis.

A Parsimonious Model of the Rabbit Action Potential Elucidates the Minimal Physiological Requirements for Alternans and Spiral Wave Breakup.

Elucidating the underlying mechanisms of fatal cardiac arrhythmias requires a tight integration of electrophysiological experiments, models, and theory. Existing models of transmembrane action potential (AP) are complex (resulting in over parameterization) and varied (leading to dissimilar predictions). Thus, simpler models are needed to elucidate the "minimal physiological requirements" to reproduce significant observable phenomena using as few parameters as possible. Moreover, models have been derived from experimental studies from a variety of species under a range of environmental conditions (for example, all existing rabbit AP models incorporate a formulation of the rapid sodium current, INa, based on 30 year old data from chick embryo cell aggregates). Here we develop a simple "parsimonious" rabbit AP model that is mathematically identifiable (i.e., not over parameterized) by combining a novel Hodgkin-Huxley formulation of INa with a phenomenological model of repolarization similar to the voltage dependent, time-independent rectifying outward potassium current (IK). The model was calibrated using the following experimental data sets measured from the same species (rabbit) under physiological conditions: dynamic current-voltage (I-V) relationships during the AP upstroke; rapid recovery of AP excitability during the relative refractory period; and steady-state INa inactivation via voltage clamp. Simulations reproduced several important "emergent" phenomena including cellular alternans at rates > 250 bpm as observed in rabbit myocytes, reentrant spiral waves as observed on the surface of the rabbit heart, and spiral wave breakup. Model variants were studied which elucidated the minimal requirements for alternans and spiral wave break up, namely the kinetics of INa inactivation and the non-linear rectification of IK.The simplicity of the model, and the fact that its parameters have physiological meaning, make it ideal for engendering generalizable mechanistic insight and should provide a solid "building-block" to generate more detailed ionic models to represent complex rabbit electrophysiology.

Modeling bipolar stimulation of cardiac tissue.

Unipolar stimulation of cardiac tissue is often used in the design of cardiac pacemakers because of the low current required to depolarize the surrounding tissue at rest. However, the advantages of unipolar over bipolar stimulation are not obvious at shorter coupling intervals when the tissue near the pacing electrode is relatively refractory. Therefore, this paper analyzes bipolar stimulation of cardiac tissue. The strength-interval relationship for bipolar stimulation is calculated using the bidomain model and a recently developed parsimonious ionic current model. The strength-interval curves obtained using different electrode separations and arrangements (electrodes placed parallel to the fibers versus perpendicular to the fibers) indicate that bipolar stimulation results in more complex activation patterns compared to unipolar stimulation. An unusually low threshold stimulus current is observed when the electrodes are close to each other (a separation of 1 mm) because of break excitation. Unlike for unipolar stimulation, anode make excitation is not present during bipolar stimulation, and an abrupt switch from anode break to cathode make excitation can cause dramatic changes in threshold with very small changes in the interval. These results could impact the design of implantable pacemakers and defibrillators.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology.

KEY POINTS: Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community. ABSTRACT: The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

Optical Mapping of Ventricular Fibrillation Dynamics.

There is very limited information regarding the dynamic patterns of the electrical activity during ventricular fibrillation (VF) in humans. Most of the data used to generate and test hypotheses regarding the mechanisms of VF come from animal models and computer simulations and the quantification of VF patterns is non-trivial. Many of the experimental recordings of the dynamic spatial patterns of VF have been obtained from mammals using "optical mapping" or "video imaging" technology in which "phase maps" are derived from high-resolution transmembrane recordings from the heart surface. The surface manifestation of the unstable reentrant waves sustaining VF can be identified as "phase singularities" and their number and location provide one measure of VF complexity. After providing a brief history of optical mapping of VF, we compare and contrast a quantitative analysis of VF patterns from the heart surface for four different animal models, hence providing physiological insight into the variety of VF dynamics among species. We found that in all four animal models the action potential duration restitution slope was actually negative during VF and that the spatial dispersion of electrophysiological parameters were not different during the first second of VF compared to pacing immediately before VF initiation. Surprisingly, our results suggest that APD restitution and spatial dispersion may not be essential causes of VF dynamics. Analyses of electrophysiological quantities in the four animal models are consistent with the idea that VF is essentially a two-dimensional phenomenon in small rabbit hearts whose size are near the boundary of the "critical mass" required to sustain VF, while VF in large pig hearts is three-dimensional and exhibits the maximal theoretical phase singularity density, and thus will not terminate spontaneously.

Drug-induced post-repolarization refractoriness as an antiarrhythmic principle and its underlying mechanism.

AIMS: We hypothesized that amiodarone (AM), unlike d-sotalol (DS) (a 'pure' Class III agent), not only prolongs the action potential duration (APD) but also causes post-repolarization refractoriness (PRR), thereby preventing premature excitation and providing superior antiarrhythmic efficacy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We tested this hypothesis in 31 patients with inducible ventricular tachycardia (VT) during programmed stimulation with the use of the 'Franz' monophasic action potential (MAP) catheter with simultaneous pacing capability. We determined the effective refractory period (ERP) for each of three extrastimuli (S2-S4) and the corresponding MAP duration at 90% repolarization (APD90), both during baseline and on randomized therapy with either DS (n = 15) or AM (n = 16). We defined ERP > APD90 as PRR and ERP < APD90 as 'encroachment' on repolarization. A revised computer action potential model was developed to help explain the mechanisms of these in-vivo human-heart phenomena. Encroachment but not PRR was present in all patients at baseline and during DS treatment (NS vs. baseline), and VT was non-inducible in only 2 of 15 DS patients. In contrast, in 12 of 16 AM patients PRR was present (P < 0.001 vs. baseline), and VT was no longer inducible. Our model (with revised sodium channel kinetics) reproduced encroachment and drug-induced PRR. CONCLUSION: Both, AM and DS, prolonged APD90 but only AM produced PRR and prevented encroachment of premature extrastimuli. Our computer simulations suggest that PRR is due to altered kinetics of the slow inactivation of the rapid sodium current. This may contribute to the high antiarrhythmic efficacy of AM.

Quantification of transmembrane currents during action potential propagation in the heart.

The measurement, quantitative analysis, theory, and mathematical modeling of transmembrane potential and currents have been an integral part of the field of electrophysiology since its inception. Biophysical modeling of action potential propagation begins with detailed ionic current models for a patch of membrane within a distributed cable model. Voltage-clamp techniques have revolutionized clinical electrophysiology via the characterization of the transmembrane current gating variables; however, this kinetic information alone is insufficient to accurately represent propagation. Other factors, including channel density, membrane area, surface/volume ratio, axial conductivities, etc., are also crucial determinants of transmembrane currents in multicellular tissue but are extremely difficult to measure. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, a novel analytical approach to compute transmembrane currents directly from experimental data, which involves high-temporal (200 kHz) recordings of intra- and extracellular potential with glass microelectrodes from the epicardial surface of isolated rabbit hearts during propagation. We show for the first time, to our knowledge, that during stable planar propagation the biphasic total transmembrane current (I(m)) dipole density during depolarization was ∼0.25 ms in duration and asymmetric in amplitude (peak outward current was ∼95 µA/cm(2) and peak inward current was ∼140 µA/cm(2)), and the peak inward ionic current (I(ion)) during depolarization was ∼260 µA/cm(2) with duration of ∼1.0 ms. Simulations of stable propagation using the ionic current versus transmembrane potential relationship fit from the experimental data reproduced these values better than traditional ionic models. During ventricular fibrillation, peak I(m) was decreased by 50% and peak I(ion) was decreased by 70%. Our results provide, to our knowledge, novel quantitative information that complements voltage- and patch-clamp data.

Transmembrane current imaging in the heart during pacing and fibrillation.

Recently, we described a method to quantify the time course of total transmembrane current (Im) and the relative role of its two components, a capacitive current (Ic) and a resistive current (Iion), corresponding to the cardiac action potential during stable propagation. That approach involved recording high-fidelity (200 kHz) transmembrane potential (Vm) signals with glass microelectrodes at one site using a spatiotemporal coordinate transformation via measured conduction velocity. Here we extend our method to compute these transmembrane currents during stable and unstable propagation from fluorescence signals of Vm at thousands of sites (3 kHz), thereby introducing transmembrane current imaging. In contrast to commonly used linear Laplacians of extracellular potential (Ve) to compute Im, we utilized nonlinear image processing to compute the required second spatial derivatives of Vm. We quantified the dynamic spatial patterns of current density of Im and Iion for both depolarization and repolarization during pacing (including nonplanar patterns) by calibrating data with the microelectrode signals. Compared to planar propagation, we found that the magnitude of Iion was significantly reduced at sites of wave collision during depolarization but not repolarization. Finally, we present uncalibrated dynamic patterns of Im during ventricular fibrillation and show that Im at singularity sites was monophasic and positive with a significant nonzero charge (Im integrated over 10 ms) in contrast with nonsingularity sites. Our approach should greatly enhance the understanding of the relative roles of functional (e.g., rate-dependent membrane dynamics and propagation patterns) and static spatial heterogeneities (e.g., spatial differences in tissue resistance) via recordings during normal and compromised propagation, including arrhythmias.

A computational modeling framework for pre-clinical evaluation of cardiac mapping systems.

There are a variety of difficulties in evaluating clinical cardiac mapping systems, most notably the inability to record the transmembrane potential throughout the entire heart during patient procedures which prevents the comparison to a relevant "gold standard". Cardiac mapping systems are comprised of hardware and software elements including sophisticated mathematical algorithms, both of which continue to undergo rapid innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop a computational modeling framework to evaluate the performance of cardiac mapping systems. The framework enables rigorous evaluation of a mapping system's ability to localize and characterize (i.e., focal or reentrant) arrhythmogenic sources in the heart. The main component of our tool is a library of computer simulations of various dynamic patterns throughout the entire heart in which the type and location of the arrhythmogenic sources are known. Our framework allows for performance evaluation for various electrode configurations, heart geometries, arrhythmias, and electrogram noise levels and involves blind comparison of mapping systems against a "silver standard" comprised of computer simulations in which the precise transmembrane potential patterns throughout the heart are known. A feasibility study was performed using simulations of patterns in the human left atria and three hypothetical virtual catheter electrode arrays. Activation times (AcT) and patterns (AcP) were computed for three virtual electrode arrays: two basket arrays with good and poor contact and one high-resolution grid with uniform spacing. The average root mean squared difference of AcTs of electrograms and those of the nearest endocardial action potential was less than 1 ms and therefore appears to be a poor performance metric. In an effort to standardize performance evaluation of mapping systems a novel performance metric is introduced based on the number of AcPs identified correctly and those considered spurious as well as misclassifications of arrhythmia type; spatial and temporal localization accuracy of correctly identified patterns was also quantified. This approach provides a rigorous quantitative analysis of cardiac mapping system performance. Proof of concept of this computational evaluation framework suggests that it could help safeguard that mapping systems perform as expected as well as provide estimates of system accuracy.

Data-Driven Uncertainty Quantification for Cardiac Electrophysiological Models: Impact of Physiological Variability on Action Potential and Spiral Wave Dynamics.

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology (EP) has recently transitioned from a scientific research tool to clinical applications. To ensure reliability of clinical or regulatory decisions made using cardiac EP models, it is vital to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions. Model predictions are uncertain because there is typically substantial uncertainty in model input parameters, due to measurement error or natural variability. While there has been much recent uncertainty quantification (UQ) research for cardiac EP models, all previous work has been limited by either: (i) considering uncertainty in only a subset of the full set of parameters; and/or (ii) assigning arbitrary variation to parameters (e.g., ±10 or 50% around mean value) rather than basing the parameter uncertainty on experimental data. In our recent work we overcame the first limitation by performing UQ and sensitivity analysis using a novel canine action potential model, allowing all parameters to be uncertain, but with arbitrary variation. Here, we address the second limitation by extending our previous work to use data-driven estimates of parameter uncertainty. Overall, we estimated uncertainty due to population variability in all parameters in five currents active during repolarization: inward potassium rectifier, transient outward potassium, L-type calcium, rapidly and slowly activating delayed potassium rectifier; 25 parameters in total (all model parameters except fast sodium current parameters). A variety of methods was used to estimate the variability in these parameters. We then propagated the uncertainties through the model to determine their impact on predictions of action potential shape, action potential duration (APD) prolongation due to drug block, and spiral wave dynamics. Parameter uncertainty had a significant effect on model predictions, especially L-type calcium current parameters. Correlation between physiological parameters was determined to play a role in physiological realism of action potentials. Surprisingly, even model outputs that were relative differences, specifically drug-induced APD prolongation, were heavily impacted by the underlying uncertainty. This is the first data-driven end-to-end UQ analysis in cardiac EP accounting for uncertainty in the vast majority of parameters, including first in tissue, and demonstrates how future UQ could be used to ensure model-based decisions are robust to all underlying parameter uncertainties.

Origin choice and petal loss in the flower garden of spiral wave tip trajectories.

Rotating spiral waves have been observed in numerous biological and physical systems. These spiral waves can be stationary, meander, or even degenerate into multiple unstable rotating waves. The spatiotemporal behavior of spiral waves has been extensively quantified by tracking spiral wave tip trajectories. However, the precise methodology of identifying the spiral wave tip and its influence on the specific patterns of behavior remains a largely unexplored topic of research. Here we use a two-state variable FitzHugh-Nagumo model to simulate stationary and meandering spiral waves and examine the spatiotemporal representation of the system's state variables in both the real (i.e., physical) and state spaces. We show that mapping between these two spaces provides a method to demarcate the spiral wave tip as the center of rotation of the solution to the underlying nonlinear partial differential equations. This approach leads to the simplest tip trajectories by eliminating portions resulting from the rotational component of the spiral wave.

Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Cardiac Action Potential Models.

Recent efforts to ensure the reliability of computational model-based predictions in healthcare, such as the ASME V&V40 Standard, emphasize the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) when evaluating computational models. UQ involves empirically determining the uncertainty in model inputs-typically resulting from natural variability or measurement error-and then calculating the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. SA involves calculating how uncertainty in model outputs can be apportioned to input uncertainty. Rigorous comprehensive UQ/SA provides confidence that model-based decisions are robust to underlying uncertainties. However, comprehensive UQ/SA is not currently feasible for whole heart models, due to numerous factors including model complexity and difficulty in measuring variability in the many parameters. Here, we present a significant step to developing a framework to overcome these limitations. We: (i) developed a novel action potential (AP) model of moderate complexity (six currents, seven variables, 36 parameters); (ii) prescribed input variability for all parameters (not empirically derived); (iii) used a single "hyper-parameter" to study increasing levels of parameter uncertainty; (iv) performed UQ and SA for a range of model-derived quantities with physiological relevance; and (v) present quantitative and qualitative ways to analyze different behaviors that occur under parameter uncertainty, including "model failure". This is the first time uncertainty in every parameter (including conductances, steady-state parameters, and time constant parameters) of every ionic current in a cardiac model has been studied. This approach allowed us to demonstrate that, for this model, the simulated AP is fully robust to low levels of parameter uncertainty - to our knowledge the first time this has been shown of any cardiac model. A range of dynamics was observed at larger parameter uncertainty (e.g., oscillatory dynamics); analysis revealed that five parameters were highly influential in these dynamics. Overall, we demonstrate feasibility of performing comprehensive UQ/SA for cardiac cell models and demonstrate how to assess robustness and overcome model failure when performing cardiac UQ analyses. The approach presented here represents an important and significant step toward the development of model-based clinical tools which are demonstrably robust to all underlying uncertainties and therefore more reliable in safety-critical decision-making.

Effect of Heart Structure on Ventricular Fibrillation in the Rabbit: A Simulation Study.

Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is a lethal condition that affects millions worldwide. The mechanism underlying VF is unstable reentrant electrical waves rotating around lines called filaments. These complex spatio-temporal patterns can be studied using both experimental and numerical methods. Computer simulations provide unique insights including high resolution dynamics throughout the heart and systematic control of quantities such as fiber orientation and cellular kinetics that are not feasible experimentally. Here we study filament dynamics using two bi-ventricular 3-D high-resolution rabbit heart geometries, one with detailed fine structure and another without fine structure. We studied filament dynamics using anisotropic and isotropic conductivities, and with four cellular action potential models with different recovery kinetics. Spiral wave dynamics observed in isotropic two-dimensional sheets were not predictive of the behavior in the whole heart. In 2-D the four cell models exhibited stable reentry, meandering spiral waves, and spiral-wave breakup. In the whole heart with fine structure, all simulation results exhibited complex dynamics reminiscent of fibrillation observed experimentally. In the whole heart without fine structure, anisotropy acted to destabilize filament dynamics although the number of filaments was reduced compared to the heart with structure. In addition, in isotropic hearts without structure the two cell models that exhibited meandering spiral waves in 2-D, stabilized into figure-of-eight surface patterns. We also studied the sensitivity of filament dynamics to computer system configuration and initial conditions. After large simulation times, different macroscopic results sometimes occurred across different system configurations, likely due to a lack of bitwise reproducibility. The study conclusions were insensitive to initial condition perturbations, however, the exact number of filaments over time and their trends were altered by these changes. In summary, we present the following new results. First, we provide a new cell model that resembles the surface patterns of VF in the rabbit heart both qualitatively and quantitatively. Second, filament dynamics in the whole heart cannot be predicted from spiral wave dynamics in 2-D and we identified anisotropy as one destabilizing factor. Third, the exact dynamics of filaments are sensitive to a variety of factors, so we suggest caution in their interpretation and their quantitative analyses.