RESUMO
African horse sickness is an equine orbivirus transmitted by Culicoides Latreille biting midges. In the last 80 years, it has caused several devastating outbreaks in the equine population in Europe, the Far and Middle East, North Africa, South-East Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The disease is endemic in South Africa; however, a unique control area has been set up in the Western Cape where increased surveillance and control measures have been put in place. A deterministic metapopulation model was developed to explore if an outbreak might occur, and how it might develop, if a latently infected horse was to be imported into the control area, by varying the geographical location and months of import. To do this, a previously published ordinary differential equation model was developed with a metapopulation approach and included a vaccinated horse population. Outbreak length, time to peak infection, number of infected horses at the peak, number of horses overall affected (recovered or dead), re-emergence, and Rv (the basic reproduction number in the presence of vaccination) were recorded and displayed using GIS mapping. The model predictions were compared to previous outbreak data to ensure validity. The warmer months (November to March) had longer outbreaks than the colder months (May to September), took more time to reach the peak, and had a greater total outbreak size with more horses infected at the peak. Rv appeared to be a poor predictor of outbreak dynamics for this simulation. A sensitivity analysis indicated that control measures such as vaccination and vector control are potentially effective to manage the spread of an outbreak, and shortening the vaccination window to July to September may reduce the risk of vaccine-associated outbreaks.
Assuntos
Doença Equina Africana , Animais , Cavalos , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Doença Equina Africana/epidemiologia , Doença Equina Africana/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Número Básico de Reprodução , Simulação por ComputadorRESUMO
This study aimed to identify the pathogens isolated from the milk of cows with clinical mastitis in the subtropical region of Australia and to determine the antimicrobial susceptibility of these bacteria. Thirty dairy herds in the subtropical dairy region were asked to submit milk samples for the first 5 cases of clinical mastitis each month for 12 mo. Samples underwent aerobic culture, and isolates were identified via MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry. Antimicrobial susceptibility was determined for Escherichia coli, Enterococcus spp., Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus uberis, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Staphylococcus aureus, and non-aureus staphylococci and mammaliicocci (NASM). Between March 2021 and July 2022, 1,230 milk samples were collected. A positive culture result was recorded for 812 (66%) of the milk samples; from these samples, 909 isolates were obtained, including 49 isolates where no identification was possible. The remaining samples were classified as having no growth (16.8%) or as being contaminated (17.2%). The most common isolates with a MALDI-TOF diagnosis (n = 909) were Strep. uberis (23.6%), followed by the NASM group (15.0%). Farms enrolled in the study were in 3 distinct locations within the subtropical dairy region: North Queensland, Southeast Queensland, and Northern New South Wales. Some variation in isolate prevalence occurred between these 3 locations. We found lower odds of a sample being positive for E. coli in North Queensland (odds ratio [OR]: 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.07-0.87) and higher odds in Southeast Queensland (OR: 4.01; 95% CI: 1.96-8.20) compared with the reference, Northern New South Wales. We further found higher odds of Strep. dysgalactiae in North Queensland (OR: 5.69; 95% CI: 1.85-17.54) and Southeast Queensland compared with Northern New South Wales (OR: 3.99; 95% CI: 1.73-9.22). Although some seasonal patterns were observed, season was not significant for any of the analyzed isolates. Farm-level differences in pathogen profiles were obvious. Overall, clinical mastitis pathogens had low levels of resistance to the antimicrobials tested. This research demonstrates that Strep. uberis and the NASM bacterial group are the most common pathogens causing clinical mastitis in the subtropical dairy region. It highlights the importance of understanding pathogenic causes of mastitis at the farm and regional level for targeted control and therapy.
Assuntos
Anti-Infecciosos , Doenças dos Bovinos , Mastite Bovina , Infecções Estreptocócicas , Feminino , Animais , Bovinos , Escherichia coli , Infecções Estreptocócicas/veterinária , Staphylococcus , Leite/microbiologia , Bactérias , Mastite Bovina/microbiologiaRESUMO
We identified and isolated a novel Hendra virus (HeV) variant not detected by routine testing from a horse in Queensland, Australia, that died from acute illness with signs consistent with HeV infection. Using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, we determined the variant had ≈83% nt identity with prototypic HeV. In silico and in vitro comparisons of the receptor-binding protein with prototypic HeV support that the human monoclonal antibody m102.4 used for postexposure prophylaxis and current equine vaccine will be effective against this variant. An updated quantitative PCR developed for routine surveillance resulted in subsequent case detection. Genetic sequence consistency with virus detected in grey-headed flying foxes suggests the variant circulates at least among this species. Studies are needed to determine infection kinetics, pathogenicity, reservoir-species associations, viral-host coevolution, and spillover dynamics for this virus. Surveillance and biosecurity practices should be updated to acknowledge HeV spillover risk across all regions frequented by flying foxes.
Assuntos
Quirópteros , Vírus Hendra , Infecções por Henipavirus , Doenças dos Cavalos , Animais , Austrália/epidemiologia , Vírus Hendra/genética , Infecções por Henipavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Henipavirus/veterinária , Doenças dos Cavalos/epidemiologia , Cavalos , Filogenia , Vigilância de Evento SentinelaRESUMO
African horse sickness (AHS) is a hemorrhagic viral fever of horses. It is the only equine disease for which the World Organization for Animal Health has introduced specific guidelines for member countries seeking official recognition of disease-free status. Since 1997, South Africa has maintained an AHS controlled area; however, sporadic outbreaks of AHS have occurred in this area. We compared the whole genome sequences of 39 AHS viruses (AHSVs) from field AHS cases to determine the source of 3 such outbreaks. Our analysis confirmed that individual outbreaks were caused by virulent revertants of AHSV type 1 live, attenuated vaccine (LAV) and reassortants with genome segments derived from AHSV types 1, 3, and 4 from a LAV used in South Africa. These findings show that despite effective protection of vaccinated horses, polyvalent LAV may, paradoxically, place susceptible horses at risk for AHS.
Assuntos
Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/genética , Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/imunologia , Doença Equina Africana/epidemiologia , Doença Equina Africana/virologia , Genoma Viral , Vírus Reordenados , Vacinas Atenuadas , Vacinas Virais , Doença Equina Africana/história , Doença Equina Africana/prevenção & controle , Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/classificação , Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/patogenicidade , Animais , Surtos de Doenças , Genótipo , História do Século XXI , Cavalos , Filogenia , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Vírus Reordenados/genética , Vírus Reordenados/imunologia , Sorotipagem , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Vacinas Atenuadas/genética , Vacinas Atenuadas/imunologia , Vacinas Virais/genética , Vacinas Virais/imunologia , Sequenciamento Completo do GenomaRESUMO
In North America, range constraints due to burgeoning development increasingly encroach on wild horse habitat and necessitate effective but humane reproductive management. The largest free-roaming wild horse fertility control program by population (>3500) and territory size (≈300,000 acres) is located within Nevada's Virginia Range. Data from a field study investigated porcine zona pellucida (pZP) immunocontraception via remote dart delivery to mares in this population. Analyses aimed to measure efficacy by treatment effects on annual birth rates and population demographics and to evaluate treatment frequency and season against these variables. Analyses included mares' monthly data (January 2019-December 2022; 48 months), characterized by cumulative vaccination numbers subset into four classifications considering the vaccine as having no loss of efficacy or a loss within a 6-, 12-, and 18-month period post vaccination; from foaling data, the likelihood of being in foal and of conceiving in that month; and from age, as mature or immature (<1 years-old). A downward foaling rate and trend in the numbers of mature mares, descriptively presented at monthly intervals, showed markedly declining annual seasonal breeding peaks, with no observed change in foaling season or duration. Within four years, population coverage surpassed 70% and was associated with a 58% reduction in foaling, with only a 10% conception rate. Vaccinated mares increased proportionally: assuming a 12-month decay rate, the system reached stability at an average ≈1.0 vaccination/mare/year, providing a robust recommendation for treatment frequency contributing to best management practices.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: During 2019, an epidemic of equine influenza (EI) occurred in Europe. OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiology of the 2019 EI epidemic within Great Britain (GB). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective descriptive study of laboratory confirmed EI cases. METHODS: Epidemiological data were obtained from veterinary surgeons referring samples for EI virus testing. Where available, data on confirmed cases and their wider resident population on EI-infected premises were collated and described. On a national level, spatial and temporal representations, consisting of choropleth maps and epidemic curves, described the spread of EI. EI-infected premises-level factors associated with the first of two epidemic phases were investigated using ordinary logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 412 confirmed cases and 234 EI-infected premises, with the first of two epidemic phases occurring between January and April, followed by a second phase through to August. The median age of confirmed cases was 5 years and Sports horses (24%) and Cobs (16%) made up the highest proportions by general horse type and breed. Among confirmed cases 72% were unvaccinated and 18% were vaccinated against EI. New horses arriving within 2 weeks of a confirmed case were reported by 42% of EI-infected premises. Investigation of EI-infected premises biosecurity measures indicated that 23% quarantined new arrivals, 37% had isolation facilities and 57% of resident horses were vaccinated. EI-infected premises were more likely in the first than second epidemic phase to be classified as professional, have a vaccinated confirmed case and EI confirmed in a newly arrived animal. MAIN LIMITATIONS: Data were collected at a single time point for each EI-infected premises with no follow ups performed. CONCLUSIONS: During 2019, EI-infected premises generally had low levels of population vaccine coverage and implemented limited preventive biosecurity measures, particularly linked to horse movements. Without substantial improvements in infectious disease prevention and control, the GB equine population remains at risk of future EI epidemics.
Assuntos
Doenças dos Cavalos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N8 , Influenza Humana , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae , Cavalos , Animais , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Cavalos/prevenção & controle , Estudos Retrospectivos , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/veterináriaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Police-recorded road injury data are frequently used to approximate injury risk for different road user groups but a detailed analysis of incidents involving ridden horses has not previously been conducted. This study aims to describe human injuries resulting from interactions between ridden horses and other road users on public roads in Great Britain and identify factors associated with severe to fatal injuries. METHOD: Police-recorded road incident data involving ridden horses (2010-2019) were extracted from the Department for Transport (DfT) database and described. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression modeling was used to identify factors associated with severe/fatal injury outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1,031 injury incidents involving ridden horses were reported by police forces, involving 2,243 road users. Out of 1,187 road users injured, 81.4% were female, 84.1% were horse riders, and 25.2% (nâ¯=â¯293/1,161) were in the 0-20â¯year age category. Horse riders represented 238/267 serious injuries and 17/18 fatalities. Vehicle types involved in incidents where horse riders were seriously/fatally injured were mostly cars (53.4%, nâ¯=â¯141/264) and vans/light goods vehicles (9.8%, nâ¯=â¯26). Horse riders, cyclists, and motorcyclists had higher odds of severe/fatal injury compared to car occupants (pâ¯<â¯0.001). Severe/fatal injuries were more likely on roads with 60-70 mph speed limits versus 20-30 mph roads, while odds of severe/fatal injury increased with increasing road user age (pâ¯<â¯0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Improved equestrian road safety will largely impact females and young people as well as reducing risk of severe/fatal injuries in older road users and those using modes of transport such as pedal-cycles and motorcycles. Our findings support existing evidence that reductions in speed limits on rural roads would help reduce the risk of serious/fatal injuries. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: More robust equestrian incident data would better inform evidence-based initiatives to improve road safety for all road users. We suggest how this can be done.
Assuntos
Automóveis , Polícia , Humanos , Feminino , Cavalos , Animais , Adolescente , Idoso , Masculino , Reino Unido , Bases de Dados Factuais , MotocicletasRESUMO
In southern Africa, clade 2.3.4.4B H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) was first detected in South African (SA) poultry in April 2021, followed by outbreaks in poultry or wild birds in Lesotho and Botswana. In this study, the complete or partial genomes of 117 viruses from the SA outbreaks in 2021-2022 were analyzed to decipher the sub-regional spread of the disease. Our analysis showed that seven H5N1 sub-genotypes were associated with the initial outbreaks, but by late 2022 only two sub-genotypes still circulated. Furthermore, SA poultry was not the source of Lesotho's outbreaks, and the latter was most likely an introduction from wild birds. Similarly, SA and Botswana's outbreaks in 2021 were unrelated, but viruses of Botswana's unique sub-genotype were introduced into SA later in 2022 causing an outbreak in ostriches. At least 83% of SA's commercial poultry cases in 2021-2022 were point introductions from wild birds. Like H5N8 HPAI in 2017-2018, a coastal seabird-restricted sub-lineage of H5N1 viruses emerged in the Western Cape province in 2021 and spread to Namibia, causing mortalities in Cape Cormorants. In SA ~24,000 of this endangered species died, and the loss of >300 endangered African penguins further threatens biodiversity.
Assuntos
Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Influenza Aviária , Struthioniformes , Animais , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1/genética , Virulência , Epidemiologia Molecular , Filogenia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Aves Domésticas , Animais Selvagens , África Austral/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Dog rabies has been recognized from ancient times and remains widespread across the developing world with an estimated 59,000 people dying annually from the disease. In 2011 a tri-partite alliance consisting of the OIE, the WHO and the FAO committed to globally eliminating dog-mediated human rabies by 2030. Regardless of global support, the responsibility remains with local program managers to implement successful elimination programs. It is well known that vaccination programs have a high probability of successful elimination if they achieve a population-coverage of 70%. It is often quoted that reducing population turnover (typically through sterilizations) raises the probability for local elimination by maintaining herd immunity for longer. Besides this, other factors that affect rabies elimination are rarely mentioned. This paper investigates the probability for local elimination as it relates to immunity, fecundity, dog population size, infectivity (bite rates), in-migration of immune-naïve dogs, and the initial incidence. To achieve this, an individual-based, stochastic, transmission model was manipulated to create a dataset covering combinations of factors that may affect elimination. The results thereof were analysed using a logistic regression model with elimination as the dependent variable. Our results suggest that smaller dog populations, lower infectivity and lower incidence (such as when epidemics start with single introductions) strongly increased the probability for elimination at wide ranges of vaccination levels. Lower fecundity and lower in-migration had weak effects. We discuss the importance of these findings in terms of their impact and their practical application in the design of dog-mediated rabies control programs.
Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Animais , Fertilidade , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Densidade Demográfica , Probabilidade , Raiva/imunologia , Vacina Antirrábica/imunologia , Esterilização , VacinaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Previously national surveillance data for monitoring strangles (Streptococcus equi infection) in UK horses was limited. Improved awareness and knowledge of positive diagnoses would permit the optimisation of biosecurity protocols, decreasing the prevalence of strangles. METHODS: Seven UK laboratories reported positive strangles diagnoses between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019 based on identifying Streptococcus equi via agent detection assays from field-based practitioner-submitted samples. Associated clinical history and animal signalment were collected where provided, and descriptive analysis undertaken. RESULTS: Within the study period, 1617 laboratory-confirmed diagnoses occurred from samples submitted by 315 veterinary practices. Of these, 51.6% were swabs and 44.0% guttural pouch lavages. Diagnoses were primarily based on qPCR alone (59.6%), qPCR and culture (35.8%), or culture alone (4.6%). A total of 1791 clinical signs were reported for 713 diagnoses, where nasal discharge (31.3%) and pyrexia (20.5%) were most frequently reported. Regions with the highest number of diagnoses included North Yorkshire (n = 75, 4.6%), Staffordshire (n = 71, 4.4%) and West Sussex (North East) (n = 63, 3.9%). CONCLUSION: This study presents important insights into the diagnosis and clinical features of strangles in UK horses, even though limited and/or missing clinical history and signalment on laboratory submission forms restricts the completeness of the data.
Assuntos
Doenças dos Cavalos , Streptococcus equi , Animais , Biosseguridade , Surtos de Doenças , Doenças dos Cavalos/diagnóstico , Doenças dos Cavalos/epidemiologia , Cavalos , Laboratórios , Reino Unido/epidemiologiaRESUMO
South Africa is endemic for African horse sickness (AHS), an important health and trade-sensitive disease of equids. The country is zoned with movement control measures facilitating an AHS-free controlled area in the south-west. Our objective was to quantitatively establish the risk of entry of AHS virus into the AHS controlled area through the legal movement of horses. Outcomes were subcategorised to evaluate movement pathway, temporal, and spatial differences in risk. A 'no-control' scenario allowed for evaluation of the impact of control measures. Using 2019 movement and AHS case data, and country-wide census data, a stochastic model was developed establishing local municipality level entry risk of AHSV at monthly intervals. These were aggregated to annual probability of entry. Sensitivity analysis evaluated model variables on their impact on the conditional means of the probability of entry. The median monthly probability of entry of AHSV into the controlled area of South Africa ranged from 0.75% (June) to 5.73% (February), with the annual median probability of entry estimated at 20.21% (95% CI: 15.89%-28.89%). The annual risk of AHSV entry compared well with the annual probability of introduction of AHS into the controlled area, which is ~10% based on the last 20 years of outbreak data. Direct non-quarantine movements made up most movements and accounted for most of the risk of entry. Spatial analysis showed that, even though reported case totals were zero throughout 2019 in the Western Cape, horses originating from this province still pose a risk that should not be ignored. Control measures decrease risk by a factor of 2.8 on an annual basis. Not only do the outcomes of this study inform domestic control, they can also be used for scientifically justified trade decision making, since in-country movement control forms a key component of export protocols.
Assuntos
Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/patogenicidade , Animais , Cavalos , Modelos Teóricos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Análise EspacialRESUMO
Infection dynamics data for influenza A virus in a species is important for understanding host-pathogen interactions and developing effective control strategies. Seven-week-old ostriches challenged with H7N1 low pathogenic viruses (LPAIV) or clade 2.3.4.4B H5N8 high pathogenic viruses (HPAIV) were co- housed with non-challenged contacts. Clinical signs, virus shed in the trachea, cloaca, and feather pulp, and antibody responses were quantified over 14 days. H7N1 LPAIV-infected ostriches remained generally healthy with some showing signs of mild conjunctivitis and rhinitis attributed to Mycoplasma co-infection. Mean tracheal virus shedding titres in contact birds peaked 3 days (106.2 EID50 equivalents / ml) and 9 days (105.28 EID50 equivalents / ml) after introduction, lasting for at least 13 days post infection. Cloacal shedding was substantially lower and ceased within 10 days of onset, and low virus levels were detected in wing feather pulp up until day 14. H5N8 HPAIV -infected ostriches showed various degrees of morbidity, with 2/3 mortalities in the in-contact group. Mean tracheal shedding in contact birds peaked 8 days after introduction (106.32 EID50 equivalents/ ml) and lasted beyond 14 days in survivors. Cloacal shedding and virus in feather pulp was generally higher and more consistently positive compared to H7N1 LPAIV, and was also detectable at least until 14 days post infection in survivors. Antibodies against H5N8 HPAIV and H7N1 LPAIV only appeared after day 7 post exposure, with higher titres induced by the HPAIV compared to the LPAIV, and neuraminidase treatment was essential to remove non-specific inhibitors from the H5N8-positive antisera.
Assuntos
Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N8 , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H7N1 , Influenza Aviária , Struthioniformes , Animais , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N8/patogenicidade , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H7N1/patogenicidade , Influenza Aviária/virologiaRESUMO
Over 60% of UK horse riders report having experienced a road-related near-miss or accident. The aim of this study was to describe horse-related road incidents (n = 4107) reported to the British Horse Society (2010-2020) and to identify factors associated with higher odds of collisions with another vehicle and horse fatalities using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Drivers passed the horse too closely in 84.2% of incidents while road rage and speeding were reported in 40.3% and 40.1% of incidents, respectively. Close passing distance alone (odds ratio [OR] 18.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5, 51.6) or in combination with speeding (OR 4.4, CI 1.7, 11.7) was associated with higher collision odds compared to speeding alone. Speeding was, however, associated with higher horse fatality odds (OR 2.3, CI 1.2, 4.6). Wearing high visibility clothing reduced odds of collision (OR 0.2, CI 0.1, 0.4). A fatal injury to a horse was almost 12 times as likely to result in severe to fatal rider/handler injury. Loose horses contribute significantly to road-related horse fatalities. Driver behaviour of how to pass horses safely on UK roads needs further improvement and will help reduce the risk of collisions and horse and human fatalities.
RESUMO
In the Cape Flats townships, Cape Town, South Africa, there are more than 250 working cart horses. They serve the community with scrap metal and garden refuse removal, human transport and the selling of goods. A questionnaire was undertaken to understand the social and economic impacts of a horse and cart in the Cape Flats on individual owners and/or drivers, their households and the community. A mixture of classical quantitative questions combined with qualitative participatory technique questions were used. A total of 100 participants took part in the questionnaire, who cart with 163 horses between them. The majority (89%) identified the cart horse income as their primary income source. Apart from the participants, an additional 716 people were supported financially through this income, where the mean number of children supported was 2.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: ±0.42) per interviewed participant. Scrap metal transportation was the most common work and the season (winter) had a negative impact on their ability to work. The spatial extent to which a cart horses work was determined and related back to the impact on the horse and participant of the survey. It was demonstrated that the cart horse industry had an impact not only on those who worked in the industry, but also on the surrounding residents, either through their work or through supporting others with their income. This study revealed that the concepts of 'One Health' and 'Health in Social-Ecological Systems', in action as horse and human health within the Cape Flats are closely intertwined.
Assuntos
Cavalos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Feminino , Masculino , África do Sul , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak occurred in March and April 2016 in the controlled area of South Africa. This extended an existing trade suspension of live equids from South Africa to the European Union. In the post-outbreak period ongoing passive and active surveillance, the latter in the form of monthly sentinel surveillance and a stand-alone freedom from disease survey in March 2017, took place. We describe a stochastic scenario tree analysis of these surveillance components for 24 months, starting July 2016, in three distinct geographic areas of the controlled area. Given that AHS was not detected, the probability of being free from AHS was between 98.3% and 99.8% assuming that, if it were present, it would have a prevalence of at least one infected animal in 1% of herds. This high level of freedom probability had been attained in all three areas within the first 9 months of the 2-year period. The primary driver of surveillance outcomes was the passive surveillance component. Active surveillance components contributed minimally (<0.2%) to the final probability of freedom. Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of infected horses showing clinical signs was an important parameter influencing the system surveillance sensitivity. The monthly probability of disease introduction needed to be increased to 20% and greater to decrease the overall probability of freedom to below 90%. Current global standards require a 2-year post-incursion period of AHS freedom before re-evaluation of free zone status. Our findings show that the length of this period could be decreased if adequately sensitive surveillance is performed. In order to comply with international standards, active surveillance will remain a component of AHS surveillance in South Africa. Passive surveillance, however, can provide substantial evidence supporting AHS freedom status declarations, and further investment in this surveillance activity would be beneficial.
RESUMO
African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations. Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic. Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses.
Assuntos
Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/patogenicidade , Doença Equina Africana/virologia , Equidae/virologia , Doença Equina Africana/patologia , Doença Equina Africana/transmissão , Animais , Surtos de Doenças , Doenças dos Cavalos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Cavalos/virologia , Cavalos/virologia , Insetos Vetores/virologia , África do SulRESUMO
An outbreak of African horse sickness (AHS) caused by AHS virus type 1 occurred within the South African AHS surveillance zone during April and May 2016. The index case was detected by a private veterinarian through passive surveillance. There were 21 cases in total, which is relatively low compared to case totals during prior AHS outbreaks in the same region (and of the same AHS virus type) in 2004, 2011 and 2014. The affected proportion of horses on affected properties was 0.07 (95% CI 0.04, 0.11). Weather conditions were conducive to high midge activity immediately prior to the outbreak but midge numbers decreased rapidly with the advent of winter. The outbreak was localized, with 18 of the 21 cases occurring within 8 km of the index property and the three remaining cases on two properties within 21 km of the index property, with direction of spread consistent with wind-borne dispersion of infected midges. Control measures included implementation of a containment zone with movement restrictions on equids. The outbreak was attributed to a reversion to virulence of a live attenuated vaccine used extensively in South Africa. Outbreaks in the AHS control zones have a major detrimental impact on the direct export of horses from South Africa, notably to the European Union.
Assuntos
Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/imunologia , Vírus da Doença Equina Africana/patogenicidade , Doença Equina Africana/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Vacinas Virais/administração & dosagem , Doença Equina Africana/virologia , Animais , Ceratopogonidae/fisiologia , Feminino , Cavalos , Masculino , Estações do Ano , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Vacinas Atenuadas/administração & dosagem , VirulênciaRESUMO
An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak occurred in South Africa's AHS controlled area in autumn 2016. A freedom from disease survey was performed to establish the likelihood of ongoing circulation of the associated virus during the same period the following year. A single-stage surveillance strategy was employed with a population-level design prevalence of 1% to establish a survey population sensitivity of 95% (probability that one or more positive horses would be detected if AHS was present at a prevalence greater than or equal to the design prevalence). In March 2017, a total of 262 randomly selected horses from 51 herds were sampled from the 2016 outbreak containment zone. Three within-herd and herd-level design prevalence scenarios were used in evaluating the post-survey probability of freedom. Depending on the underlying design prevalence scenarios, effectively ranging between 0.8% and 6.4%, and the use of informed or uninformed priors, the probability of freedom derived from this surveillance ranged between 73.1% and 99.9% (uninformed prior) and between 96.6% and 100% (informed prior). Based on the results, the authors conclude that it is unlikely that the 2016 AHS virus was still circulating in the autumn of 2017 in the 2016 outbreak containment zone. The ability to perform freedom from disease surveys, and also to include risk-based methods, in the AHS controlled area of South Africa is influenced by the changing underlying population at risk and the high level of vaccination coverage in the horse population. Ongoing census post-outbreak must be undertaken to maintain a valid sampling frame for future surveillance activity. The seasonality of AHS, the restricted AHS vaccination period and the inability to easily differentiate infected from vaccinated animals by laboratory testing impact the ability to perform a freedom from disease survey for AHS in the 12 months following an outbreak in the controlled area.
Assuntos
Vírus da Doença Equina Africana , Doença Equina Africana/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Animais , Cavalos , Vigilância de Evento Sentinela/veterinária , África do Sul/epidemiologiaRESUMO
With the current trend in animal health surveillance toward risk-based designs and a gradual transition to output-based standards, greater flexibility in surveillance design is both required and allowed. However, the increase in flexibility requires more transparency regarding surveillance, its activities, design and implementation. Such transparency allows stakeholders, trade partners, decision-makers and risk assessors to accurately interpret the validity of the surveillance outcomes. This paper presents the first version of the Animal Health Surveillance Reporting Guidelines (AHSURED) and the process by which they have been developed. The goal of AHSURED was to produce a set of reporting guidelines that supports communication of surveillance activities in the form of narrative descriptions. Reporting guidelines come from the field of evidence-based medicine and their aim is to improve consistency and quality of information reported in scientific journals. They usually consist of a checklist of items to be reported, a description/definition of each item, and an explanation and elaboration document. Examples of well-reported items are frequently provided. Additionally, it is common to make available a website where the guidelines are documented and maintained. This first version of the AHSURED guidelines consists of a checklist of 40 items organized in 11 sections (i.e., surveillance system building blocks), which is available as a wiki at https://github.com/SVA-SE/AHSURED/wiki. The choice of a wiki format will allow for further inputs from surveillance experts who were not involved in the earlier stages of development. This will promote an up-to-date refined guideline document.
RESUMO
This case report shows that Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection can cause clinical disease in domestic dogs, and should be considered as a differential diagnosis for gastrointestinal inflammatory conditions. A male dachshund presented with lethargy and pain. Enlarged mesenteric lymph nodes were found on abdominal ultrasound examination. Cytological examination of lymph node aspirates was consistent with granulomatous inflammation, which was culture-confirmed as MAP. Although we were unable to confirm the source of infection, the dog's history included exposure to sheep in the Western Cape.