Lower vs Higher Oxygenation Target and Days Alive Without Life Support in COVID-19: The HOT-COVID Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Supplemental oxygen is ubiquitously used in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, but a lower dose may be beneficial. Objective: To assess the effects of targeting a Pao2 of 60 mm Hg vs 90 mm Hg in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia in the intensive care unit (ICU). Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter randomized clinical trial including 726 adults with COVID-19 receiving at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation in 11 ICUs in Europe from August 2020 to March 2023. The trial was prematurely stopped prior to outcome assessment due to slow enrollment. End of 90-day follow-up was June 1, 2023. Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 to a Pao2 of 60 mm Hg (lower oxygenation group; n = 365) or 90 mm Hg (higher oxygenation group; n = 361) for up to 90 days in the ICU. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the number of days alive without life support (mechanical ventilation, circulatory support, or kidney replacement therapy) at 90 days. Secondary outcomes included mortality, proportion of patients with serious adverse events, and number of days alive and out of hospital, all at 90 days. Results: Of 726 randomized patients, primary outcome data were available for 697 (351 in the lower oxygenation group and 346 in the higher oxygenation group). Median age was 66 years, and 495 patients (68%) were male. At 90 days, the median number of days alive without life support was 80.0 days (IQR, 9.0-89.0 days) in the lower oxygenation group and 72.0 days (IQR, 2.0-88.0 days) in the higher oxygenation group (P = .009 by van Elteren test; supplemental bootstrapped adjusted mean difference, 5.8 days [95% CI, 0.2-11.5 days]; P = .04). Mortality at 90 days was 30.2% in the lower oxygenation group and 34.7% in the higher oxygenation group (risk ratio, 0.86 [98.6% CI, 0.66-1.13]; P = .18). There were no statistically significant differences in proportion of patients with serious adverse events or in number of days alive and out of hospital. Conclusion and Relevance: In adult ICU patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, targeting a Pao2 of 60 mm Hg resulted in more days alive without life support in 90 days than targeting a Pao2 of 90 mm Hg. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04425031.

Atrial Fibrillation (AFIB) in the ICU: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes: The International AFIB-ICU Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ICU and to describe current practice in the management of AF. DESIGN: Multicenter, prospective, inception cohort study. SETTING: Forty-four ICUs in 12 countries in four geographical regions. SUBJECTS: Adult, acutely admitted ICU patients without a history of persistent/permanent AF or recent cardiac surgery were enrolled; inception periods were from October 2020 to June 2021. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We included 1,423 ICU patients and analyzed 1,415 (99.4%), among whom 221 patients had 539 episodes of AF. Most (59%) episodes were diagnosed with continuous electrocardiogram monitoring. The incidence of AF was 15.6% (95% CI, 13.8-17.6), of which newly developed AF was 13.3% (11.5-15.1). A history of arterial hypertension, paroxysmal AF, sepsis, or high disease severity at ICU admission was associated with AF. Used interventions to manage AF were fluid bolus 19% (95% CI 16-23), magnesium 16% (13-20), potassium 15% (12-19), amiodarone 51% (47-55), beta-1 selective blockers 34% (30-38), calcium channel blockers 4% (2-6), digoxin 16% (12-19), and direct current cardioversion in 4% (2-6). Patients with AF had more ischemic, thromboembolic (13.6% vs 7.9%), and severe bleeding events (5.9% vs 2.1%), and higher mortality (41.2% vs 25.2%) than those without AF. The adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio for 90-day mortality by AF was 1.38 (95% CI, 0.95-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: In ICU patients, AF occurred in one of six and was associated with different conditions. AF was associated with worse outcomes while not statistically significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the adjusted analyses. We observed variations in the diagnostic and management strategies for AF.

PaCO2 trajectories in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify PaCO2 trajectories and assess their associations with mortality in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the first and second waves of the pandemic in Denmark. DESIGN: A population-based cohort study with retrospective data collection. PATIENTS: All COVID-19 patients were treated in eight intensive care units (ICUs) in the Capital Region of Copenhagen, Denmark, between March 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. MEASUREMENTS: Data from the electronic health records were extracted, and latent class analyses were computed based on up to the first 3 weeks of mechanical ventilation to depict trajectories of PaCO2 levels. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3, sex and age with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death according to PaCO2 trajectories. MAIN RESULTS: In latent class trajectory models, including 25,318 PaCO2 measurements from 244 patients, three PaCO2 latent class trajectories were identified: a low isocapnic (Class I; n = 130), a high isocapnic (Class II; n = 80), as well as a progressively hypercapnic (Class III; n = 34) trajectory. Mortality was higher in Class II [aHR: 2.16 {1.26-3.68}] and Class III [aHR: 2.97 {1.63-5.40}]) compared to Class I (reference). CONCLUSION: Latent class analysis of arterial blood gases in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients identified distinct PaCO2 trajectories, which were independently associated with mortality.

Thromboembolic and bleeding events in ICU patients with COVID-19: A nationwide, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have an increased risk of thromboembolic complications. We describe the occurrence of thromboembolic and bleeding events in all ICU patients with COVID-19 in Denmark during the first and second waves of the pandemic. METHODS: This was a sub-study of the Danish Intensive Care Covid database, in which all patients with SARS-CoV-2 admitted to Danish ICUs from 10th March 2020 to 30th June 2021 were included. We registered coagulation variables at admission, and all thromboembolic and bleeding events, and the use of heparins during ICU stay. Variables associated with thrombosis and bleeding and any association with 90-day mortality were estimated using Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: We included 1369 patients in this sub-study; 158 (12%, 95% confidence interval 10-13) had a thromboembolic event in ICU and 309 (23%, 20-25) had a bleeding event, among whom 81 patients (6%, 4.8-7.3) had major bleeding. We found that mechanical ventilation and increased D-dimer were associated with thrombosis and mechanical ventilation, low platelet count and presence of haematological malignancy were associated with bleeding. Most patients (76%) received increased doses of thromboprophylaxis during their ICU stay. Thromboembolic events were not associated with mortality in adjusted analysis (hazard ratio 1.35 [0.91-2.01, p = .14], whereas bleeding events were 1.55 [1.18-2.05, p = .002]). CONCLUSIONS: Both thromboembolic and bleeding events frequently occurred in ICU patients with COVID-19. Based on these data, it is not apparent that increased doses of thromboprophylaxis were beneficial.

Long-term outcomes in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care in Denmark: A nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Among ICU patients with COVID-19, it is largely unknown how the overall outcome and resource use have changed with time, different genetic variants, and vaccination status. METHODS: For all Danish ICU patients with COVID-19 from March 10, 2020 to March 31, 2022, we manually retrieved data on demographics, comorbidities, vaccination status, use of life support, length of stay, and vital status from medical records. We compared patients based on the period of admittance and vaccination status and described changes in epidemiology related to the Omicron variant. RESULTS: Among all 2167 ICU patients with COVID-19, 327 were admitted during the first (March 10-19, 2020), 1053 during the second (May 20, 2020 to June 30, 2021) and 787 during the third wave (July 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022). We observed changes over the three waves in age (median 72 vs. 68 vs. 65 years), use of invasive mechanical ventilation (81% vs. 58% vs. 51%), renal replacement therapy (26% vs. 13% vs. 12%), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (7% vs. 3% vs. 2%), duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (median 13 vs. 13 vs. 9 days) and ICU length of stay (median 13 vs. 10 vs. 7 days). Despite these changes, 90-day mortality remained constant (36% vs. 35% vs. 33%). Vaccination rates among ICU patients were 42% as compared to 80% in society. Unvaccinated versus vaccinated patients were younger (median 57 vs. 73 years), had less comorbidity (50% vs. 78%), and had lower 90-day mortality (29% vs. 51%). Patient characteristics changed significantly after the Omicron variant became dominant including a decrease in the use of COVID-specific pharmacological agents from 95% to 69%. CONCLUSIONS: In Danish ICUs, the use of life support declined, while mortality seemed unchanged throughout the three waves of COVID-19. Vaccination rates were lower among ICU patients than in society, but the selected group of vaccinated patients admitted to the ICU still had very severe disease courses. When the Omicron variant became dominant a lower fraction of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients received COVID treatment indicating other causes for ICU admission.

Treatments of new-onset atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is common in hospitalised patients with critical illness and associated with worse outcomes. Several interventions are available in the management of NOAF, but the overall effectiveness and safety of these interventions compared with placebo or no treatment are unknown. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA) of randomised clinical trials (RCT) in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses, the Cochrane Collaboration, and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation statements. We searched RCTs assessing any pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment compared with placebo or no treatment in critically ill hospitalised patients with NOAF. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, adverse events, and health-related quality of life. RESULTS: We included 16 trials (n = 1891) evaluating seven interventions. All trials were adjudicated 'some concerns' or 'high risk' of bias. The evidence is very uncertain for mortality (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.03-8.30), adverse events (RR 1.28, 95% CI 0.85-1.92), and treatment efficacy i.e. rhythm control (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.20-1.97; TSA-adjusted CI 0.56-4.53) between pharmacological treatment and placebo/no treatment (very low certainty evidence). There were no data for health-related quality of life or most of our secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The existing data are insufficient to firmly conclude on effects of any intervention against NOAF on any outcome in hospitalised patients with critical illness. Randomised trials of the most frequently used interventions against NOAF are warranted in these patients.

Management of acute atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit: An international survey.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and is associated with poor outcomes. Different management strategies exist, but the evidence is limited and derived from non-ICU patients. This international survey of ICU doctors evaluated the preferred management of acute AF in ICU patients. METHOD: We conducted an international online survey of ICU doctors with 27 questions about the preferred management of acute AF in the ICU, including antiarrhythmic therapy in hemodynamically stable and unstable patients and use of anticoagulant therapy. RESULTS: A total of 910 respondents from 70 ICUs in 14 countries participated in the survey with 24%-100% of doctors from sites responding. Most ICUs (80%) did not have a local guideline for the management of acute AF. The preferred first-line strategy for the management of hemodynamically stable patients with acute AF was observation (95% of respondents), rhythm control (3%), or rate control (2%). For hemodynamically unstable patients, the preferred strategy was observation (48%), rhythm control (48%), or rate control (4%). Overall, preferred antiarrhythmic interventions included amiodarone, direct current cardioversion, beta-blockers other than sotalol, and magnesium in that order. A total of 67% preferred using anticoagulant therapy in ICU patients with AF, among whom 61% preferred therapeutic dose anticoagulants and 39% prophylactic dose anticoagulants. CONCLUSION: This international survey indicated considerable practice variation among ICU doctors in the clinical management of acute AF, including the overall management strategies and the use of antiarrhythmic interventions and anticoagulants.

A descriptive study of the surge response and outcomes of ICU patients with COVID-19 during first wave in Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: We sought to provide a description of surge response strategies and characteristics, clinical management and outcomes of patients with severe COVID-19 in the intensive care unit (ICU) during the first wave of the pandemic in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. METHODS: Representatives from the national ICU registries for each of the five countries provided clinical data and a description of the strategies to allocate ICU resources and increase the ICU capacity during the pandemic. All adult patients admitted to the ICU for COVID-19 disease during the first wave of COVID-19 were included. The clinical characteristics, ICU management and outcomes of individual countries were described with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Most countries more than doubled their ICU capacity during the pandemic. For patients positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ratio of requiring ICU admission for COVID-19 varied substantially (1.6%-6.7%). Apart from age (proportion of patients aged 65 years or over between 29% and 62%), baseline characteristics, chronic comorbidity burden and acute presentations of COVID-19 disease were similar among the five countries. While utilization of invasive mechanical ventilation was high (59%-85%) in all countries, the proportion of patients receiving renal replacement therapy (7%-26%) and various experimental therapies for COVID-19 disease varied substantially (e.g. use of hydroxychloroquine 0%-85%). Crude ICU mortality ranged from 11% to 33%. CONCLUSION: There was substantial variability in the critical care response in Nordic ICUs to the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic, including usage of experimental medications. While ICU mortality was low in all countries, the observed variability warrants further attention.

Long-term cognitive and functional status in Danish ICU patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: ICU admission due to COVID-19 may result in cognitive and physical impairment. We investigated the long-term cognitive and physical status of Danish ICU patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We included all patients with COVID-19 admitted to Danish ICUs between March 10 and May 19, 2020. Patients were the contacted prospectively at 6 and 12 months for follow-up. Our primary outcomes were cognitive function and frailty at 6 and 12 months after ICU admission, estimated by the Mini Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and the Clinical Frailty Scale. Secondary outcomes were 6- and 12-month mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assessed by EQ-5D-5L, functional status (Barthel activities of daily living and Lawton-Brody instrumental activities of daily living), and fatigue (Fatigue Assessment Scale). The study had no information on pre-ICU admission status for the participants. RESULTS: A total of 326 patients were included. The 6- and 12-month mortality was 37% and 38%, respectively. Among the 204 six-month survivors, 105 (51%) participated in the 6-month follow-up; among the 202 twelve-month survivors, 95 (47%) participated in the 12-month follow-up. At 6 months, cognitive scores indicated impairment for 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4-12.4) and at 12 months for 17% (95% CI, 12.0-12.8) of participants. Frailty was indicated in 20% (95% CI, 3.4-3.9) at 6 months, and for 18% (95% CI, 3.3-3.8) at 12 months. Fatigue was reported by 52% at 6 months, and by 47% at 12 months. For HRQoL, moderate, severe, or extreme health problems were reported by 28% at 6 months, and by 25% at 12 months. CONCLUSION: Long-term cognitive, functional impairment was found in up to one in four of patients surviving intensive care for COVID-19. Fatigue was present in nearly half the survivors at both 6 and 12 months. However, pre-ICU admission status of the patients was unknown.

Changes over time in characteristics, resource use and outcomes among ICU patients with COVID-19-A nationwide, observational study in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Characteristics and care of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19 may have changed during the pandemic, but longitudinal data assessing this are limited. We compared patients with COVID-19 admitted to Danish ICUs in the first wave with those admitted later. METHODS: Among all Danish ICU patients with COVID-19, we compared demographics, chronic comorbidities, use of organ support, length of stay and vital status of those admitted 10 March to 19 May 2020 (first wave) versus 20 May 2020 to 30 June 2021. We analysed risk factors for death by adjusted logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among all hospitalised patients with COVID-19, a lower proportion was admitted to ICU after the first wave (13% vs. 8%). Among all 1374 ICU patients with COVID-19, 326 were admitted during the first wave. There were no major differences in patient's characteristics or mortality between the two periods, but use of invasive mechanical ventilation (81% vs. 58% of patients), renal replacement therapy (26% vs. 13%) and ECMO (8% vs. 3%) and median length of stay in ICU (13 vs. 10 days) and in hospital (20 vs. 17 days) were all significantly lower after the first wave. Risk factors for death were higher age, larger burden of comorbidities (heart failure, pulmonary disease and kidney disease) and active cancer, but not admission during or after the first wave. CONCLUSIONS: After the first wave of COVID-19 in Denmark, a lower proportion of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 were admitted to ICU. Among ICU patients, use of organ support was lower and length of stay was reduced, but mortality rates remained at a relatively high level.

Training non-intensivist doctors to work with COVID-19 patients in intensive care units.

BACKGROUND: Due to an expected surge of COVID-19 patients in need of mechanical ventilation, the intensive care capacity was doubled at Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, in March 2020. This resulted in an urgent need for doctors with competence in working with critically ill COVID-19 patients. A training course and a theoretical test for non-intensivist doctors were developed. The aims of this study were to gather validity evidence for the theoretical test and explore the effects of the course. METHODS: The 1-day course was comprised of theoretical sessions and hands-on training in ventilator use, hemodynamic monitoring, vascular access, and use of personal protective equipment. Validity evidence was gathered for the test by comparing answers from novices and experts in intensive care. Doctors who participated in the course completed the test before (pretest), after (posttest), and again within 8 weeks following the course (retention test). RESULTS: Fifty-four non-intensivist doctors from 15 different specialties with a wide range in clinical experience level completed the course. The test consisted of 23 questions and demonstrated a credible pass-fail standard at 16 points. Mean pretest score was 11.9 (SD 3.0), mean posttest score 20.6 (1.8), and mean retention test score 17.4 (2.2). All doctors passed the posttest. CONCLUSION: Non-intensivist doctors, irrespective of experience level, can acquire relevant knowledge for working in the ICU through a focused 1-day evidence-based course. This knowledge was largely retained as shown by a multiple-choice test supported by validity evidence. The test is available in appendix and online.

COVID-19 versus influenza A/B supeRInfectionS in the IntenSive care unit (CRISIS): Protocol for a Danish nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Superinfection following viral infection is a known complication, which may lead to longer hospitalisation and worse outcome. Empirical antibiotic therapy may prevent bacterial superinfections, but may also lead to overuse, adverse effects and development of resistant pathogens. Knowledge about the incidence of superinfections in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. METHODS: We will conduct a nationwide cohort study comparing the incidence of superinfections in patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to the ICU compared with ICU patients with influenza A/B in Denmark. We will include approximately 1000 patients in each group from the time period of 1 October 2014 to 30 April 2019 and from 10 March 2020 to 1 March 2021 for patients with influenza and COVID-19, respectively. The primary outcome is any superinfection within 90 days of admission to the ICU. We will use logistic regression analysis comparing COVID-19 with influenza A/B after adjustment for relevant predefined confounders. Secondarily, we will use unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression analyses to assess six potential risk factors (sex, age, cancer [including haematological], immunosuppression and use of life support on day 1 in the ICU) for superinfections and compare outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with/without superinfections, and present descriptive data regarding the superinfections. CONCLUSION: This study will provide important knowledge about superinfections in ICU patients with severe COVID-19.

New-onset atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit: Protocol for an international inception cohort study (AFIB-ICU).

INTRODUCTION: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is frequently observed in critically ill patients and may be associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased mortality. Considerable variation exists in the reported frequencies of NOAF due to the lack of a standardised definition and detection method. Importantly, there are limited data on NOAF in the intensive care unit (ICU). Thus, we aim to provide contemporary epidemiological data on NOAF in the ICU. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We have designed an international inception cohort study including at least 1,000 consecutive adult patients acutely admitted to the ICU without prior history of persistent or permanent AF. We will present data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF. We will register data daily during stay in the ICU for a maximum of 90 days after admission. The incidence of NOAF and management strategies used will be presented descriptively, and we will use Cox regression analyses including competing risk analyses to assess risk factors for NOAF and any association with 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: The outlined international AFIB-ICU inception cohort study will provide contemporary data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF in adult ICU patients. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This observational study poses no risk to the included patients. All participating sites will obtain relevant approvals according to national laws before patient enrollment. Funding sources will have no influence on data handling, analyses or writing of the manuscript. The study report(s) will be submitted to an international peer-reviewed journal.

Characteristics, interventions, and longer term outcomes of COVID-19 ICU patients in Denmark-A nationwide, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most data on intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19 originate in selected populations from stressed healthcare systems with shorter term follow-up. We present characteristics, interventions and longer term outcomes of the entire, unselected cohort of all ICU patients with COVID-19 in Denmark where the ICU capacity was not exceeded. METHODS: We identified all patients with SARS-CoV-2 admitted to any Danish ICU from 10 March to 19 May 2020 and registered demographics, chronic comorbidities, use of organ support, length of stay, and vital status from patient files. Risk factors for death were analyzed using adjusted Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 323 ICU patients with confirmed COVID-19. Median age was 68 years, 74% were men, 50% had hypertension, 21% diabetes, and 20% chronic pulmonary disease; 29% had no chronic comorbidity. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 82%, vasopressors in 83%, renal replacement therapy in 26%, and extra corporeal membrane oxygenation in 8%. ICU stay was median 13 days (IQR 6-22) and hospital stay 19 days (11-30). Median follow-up was 79 days. At end of follow-up, 118 had died (37%), 15 (4%) were still in hospital hereof 4 in ICU as of 16 June 2020. Risk factors for mortality included male gender, age, chronic pulmonary disease, active cancer, and number of co-morbidities. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide, population-based cohort of ICU patients with COVID-19, longer term survival was high despite high age and substantial use of organ support. Male gender, age, and chronic co-morbidities, in particular chronic pulmonary disease, were associated with increased risk of death.

Treatment strategies for new-onset atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients: Protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation is frequent in critically ill patients and associated with poorer outcomes in these patients. Numerous interventions are used for the management of new-onset atrial fibrillation, but it is unknown if these interventions improve patient-important outcomes as compared with placebo or no active intervention in adult critically ill patients. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomized clinical trials assessing pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions of new-onset atrial fibrillation as compared with placebo or no active intervention in adult critically ill patients. The primary outcomes are mortality, adverse events and health-related quality of life. We will search the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, Science Citation Index and BIOSIS and follow the recommendations by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. We will evaluate the overall certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. DISCUSSION: New-onset atrial fibrillation is common in adult critically ill patients. However, the balance between the desirable and undesirable effects of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions is unknown. The outlined systematic review aims to provide updated data on this topic. REGISTRATION: Submitted to PROSPERO (CRD42020187178 ). Status: accepted.

Effects of simulated sample sizes on the mortality effect estimates in three randomized intensive care unit trials.

BACKGROUND: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are occasionally stopped prematurely before reaching their planned sample sizes. It has been suggested that early stopped RCTs are associated with under- and overestimation of the effect estimates. We simulated the effect of hypothetical premature stopping of three large RCTs done in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting. METHODS: In this post hoc study, we simulated the impact of stopping trials early by calculating mortality effect estimates continuously after the inclusion of each individual patient in three large RCTs, that is the 6S trial on hydroxyethyl starch vs Ringer's acetate in sepsis in ICU, the TRISS trial on lower vs higher haemoglobin threshold for transfusion in septic shock in ICU and the SUP-ICU trial on pantoprazole in patients at risk for gastrointestinal bleeding in the ICU. RESULTS: The three trials included a total of 5087 patients; 798 from the 6S trial, 998 from the TRISS trial and 3291 patients from the SUP-ICU trial. The premature mortality effect estimates showed considerable fluctuations until at least 20%-30% of the sample size was included. The premature estimates became stable after inclusion of 205 patients (26% of the final sample size) in the 6S trial, 133 patients(13%) in the TRISS trial and 1926 patients(59%) in the SUP-ICU trial. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc study of three international RCTs within intensive care, we found that the simulated interim mortality effect estimates showed considerable fluctuations until at least 20%-30% of the sample size was included, but remained instable until the final sample sizes had been included. Thus, this study illustrates the necessity for cautious interpretations of prematurely stopped trials.

External validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).

BACKGROUND: The Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) is a clinical prediction model, which estimates the risk of 90-day mortality in acutely ill adult ICU patients using 7 readily available variables. We aimed to externally validate the SMS-ICU and compare its discrimination with existing prediction models used with 90-day mortality as the outcome. METHODS: We externally validated the SMS-ICU using data from 3282 patients included in the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial, which randomised acutely ill adult ICU patients with risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding to prophylactic pantoprazole or placebo in 33 ICUs in Europe. We assessed discrimination, calibration and overall performance of the SMS-ICU and compared discrimination with the commonly used and more complex SAPS II and SOFA scores. RESULTS: Mortality at day 90 was 30.7%. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the SMS-ICU was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65-0.69), as compared with 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70, P = 0.35) for SAPS II and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.65, P < 0.001) for the SOFA score. Calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.001 and 0.786, respectively, and Nagelkerke's R2 (overall performance) was 0.06. The proportions of missing data for the SMS-ICU, SAPS II and SOFA scores were 0.2%, 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Discrimination for 90-day mortality of the SMS-ICU in this cohort was poor, but similar to SAPS II and better than that of the SOFA score with markedly less missing data.

Lower versus higher hemoglobin threshold for transfusion in septic shock.

BACKGROUND: Blood transfusions are frequently given to patients with septic shock. However, the benefits and harms of different hemoglobin thresholds for transfusion have not been established. METHODS: In this multicenter, parallel-group trial, we randomly assigned patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) who had septic shock and a hemoglobin concentration of 9 g per deciliter or less to receive 1 unit of leukoreduced red cells when the hemoglobin level was 7 g per deciliter or less (lower threshold) or when the level was 9 g per deciliter or less (higher threshold) during the ICU stay. The primary outcome measure was death by 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 998 of 1005 patients (99.3%) who underwent randomization. The two intervention groups had similar baseline characteristics. In the ICU, the lower-threshold group received a median of 1 unit of blood (interquartile range, 0 to 3) and the higher-threshold group received a median of 4 units (interquartile range, 2 to 7). At 90 days after randomization, 216 of 502 patients (43.0%) assigned to the lower-threshold group, as compared with 223 of 496 (45.0%) assigned to the higher-threshold group, had died (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.78 to 1.09; P=0.44). The results were similar in analyses adjusted for risk factors at baseline and in analyses of the per-protocol populations. The numbers of patients who had ischemic events, who had severe adverse reactions, and who required life support were similar in the two intervention groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with septic shock, mortality at 90 days and rates of ischemic events and use of life support were similar among those assigned to blood transfusion at a higher hemoglobin threshold and those assigned to blood transfusion at a lower threshold; the latter group received fewer transfusions. (Funded by the Danish Strategic Research Council and others; TRISS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01485315.).

Hydroxyethyl starch 130/0.42 versus Ringer's acetate in severe sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxyethyl starch (HES) [corrected] is widely used for fluid resuscitation in intensive care units (ICUs), but its safety and efficacy have not been established in patients with severe sepsis. METHODS: In this multicenter, parallel-group, blinded trial, we randomly assigned patients with severe sepsis to fluid resuscitation in the ICU with either 6% HES 130/0.42 (Tetraspan) or Ringer's acetate at a dose of up to 33 ml per kilogram of ideal body weight per day. The primary outcome measure was either death or end-stage kidney failure (dependence on dialysis) at 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: Of the 804 patients who underwent randomization, 798 were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. The two intervention groups had similar baseline characteristics. At 90 days after randomization, 201 of 398 patients (51%) assigned to HES 130/0.42 had died, as compared with 172 of 400 patients (43%) assigned to Ringer's acetate (relative risk, 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.36; P=0.03); 1 patient in each group had end-stage kidney failure. In the 90-day period, 87 patients (22%) assigned to HES 130/0.42 were treated with renal-replacement therapy versus 65 patients (16%) assigned to Ringer's acetate (relative risk, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.80; P=0.04), and 38 patients (10%) and 25 patients (6%), respectively, had severe bleeding (relative risk, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.94 to 2.48; P=0.09). The results were supported by multivariate analyses, with adjustment for known risk factors for death or acute kidney injury at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with severe sepsis assigned to fluid resuscitation with HES 130/0.42 had an increased risk of death at day 90 and were more likely to require renal-replacement therapy, as compared with those receiving Ringer's acetate. (Funded by the Danish Research Council and others; 6S ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00962156.).

Association between biomarkers of endothelial injury and hypocoagulability in patients with severe sepsis: a prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with severe sepsis often present with concurrent coagulopathy, microcirculatory failure and evidence of vascular endothelial activation and damage. Given the critical role of the endothelium in balancing hemostasis, we investigated single-point associations between whole blood coagulopathy by thrombelastography (TEG) and plasma/serum markers of endothelial activation and damage in patients with severe sepsis. METHODS: A post-hoc multicenter prospective observational study in a subgroup of 184 patients from the Scandinavian Starch for Severe Sepsis/Septic Shock (6S) Trial. Study patients were admitted to two Danish intensive care units. Inclusion criteria were severe sepsis, pre-intervention whole blood TEG measurement and a plasma/serum research sample available from baseline (pre-intervention) for analysis of endothelial-derived biomarkers. Endothelial-derived biomarkers were measured in plasma/serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (syndecan-1, thrombomodulin, protein C (PC), tissue-type plasminogen activator and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1). Pre-intervention TEG, functional fibrinogen (FF) and laboratory and clinical data, including mortality, were retrieved from the trial database. RESULTS: Most patients presented with septic shock (86%) and pulmonary (60%) or abdominal (30%) focus of infection. The median (IQR) age was 67 years (59 to 75), and 55% were males. The median SOFA and SAPS II scores were 8 (6 to 10) and 56 (41 to 68), respectively, with 7-, 28- and 90-day mortality rates being 21%, 39% and 53%, respectively. Pre-intervention (before treatment with different fluids), TEG reaction (R)-time, angle and maximum amplitude (MA) and FF MA all correlated with syndecan-1, thrombomodulin and PC levels. By multivariate linear regression analyses, higher syndecan-1 and lower PC were independently associated with TEG and FF hypocoagulability at the same time-point: 100 ng/ml higher syndecan-1 predicted 0.64 minutes higher R-time (SE 0.25), 1.78 mm lower TEG MA (SE 0.87) and 0.84 mm lower FF MA (SE 0.42; all P < 0.05), and 10% lower protein C predicted 1.24 mm lower TEG MA (SE 0.31). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort of patients with severe sepsis, higher circulating levels of biomarkers of mainly endothelial damage were independently associated with hypocoagulability assessed by TEG and FF. Endothelial damage is intimately linked to coagulopathy in severe sepsis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT00962156. Registered 13 July 2009.