Use of systems thinking and adapted group model building methods to understand patterns of technology use among older adults with type 1 diabetes: a preliminary process evaluation.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of older adults (ages 65+) live with Type 1 diabetes. Simultaneously, technologies such as continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) have become standard of care. There is thus a need to understand better the complex dynamics that promote use of CGM (and other care innovations) over time in this age group. Our aim was to adapt methods from systems thinking, specifically a participatory approach to system dynamics modeling called group model building (GMB), to model the complex experiences that may underlie different trajectories of CGM use among this population. Herein, we report on the feasibility, strengths, and limitations of this methodology. METHODS: We conducted a series of GMB workshops and validation interviews to collect data in the form of questionnaires, diagrams, and recordings of group discussion. Data were integrated into a conceptual diagram of the "system" of factors associated with uptake and use of CGM over time. We evaluate the feasibility of each aspect of the study, including the teaching of systems thinking to older adult participants. We collected participant feedback on positive aspects of their experiences and areas for improvement. RESULTS: We completed nine GMB workshops with older adults and their caregivers (N = 33). Each three-hour in-person workshop comprised: (1) questionnaires; (2) the GMB session, including both didactic components and structured activities; and (3) a brief focus group discussion. Within the GMB session, individual drawing activities proved to be the most challenging for participants, while group activities and discussion of relevant dynamics over time for illustrative (i.e., realistic but not real) patients yielded rich engagement and sufficient information for system diagramming. Study participants liked the opportunity to share experiences with peers, learning and enhancing their knowledge, peer support, age-specific discussions, the workshop pace and structure, and the systems thinking framework. Participants gave mixed feedback on the workshop duration. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates preliminary feasibility, acceptability, and the value of GMB for engaging older adults about key determinants of complex health behaviors over time. To our knowledge, few studies have extended participatory systems science methods to older adult stakeholders. Future studies may utilize this methodology to inform novel approaches for supporting health across the lifespan.

Improving Prediction of Tobacco Use Over Time: Findings from Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: First-order Markov models assume future tobacco use behavior is dependent on current tobacco use and are often used to characterize patterns of tobacco use over time. Higher-order Markov models that assume future behavior is dependent on current and prior tobacco use may better estimate patterns of tobacco use. AIMS AND METHODS: This study compared Markov models of different orders to examine whether incorporating information about tobacco use history improves model estimation of tobacco use and estimated tobacco use transition probabilities. We used data from four waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. In each Wave, a participant was categorized into one of the following tobacco use states: never smoker, former smoker, menthol cigarette smoker, non-menthol cigarette smoker, or e-cigarette/dual user. We compared first-, second-, and third-order Markov models using multinomial logistic regression and estimated transition probabilities between tobacco use states. `RESULTS: The third-order model was the best fit for the data. The percentage of former smokers, menthol cigarette smokers, non-menthol cigarette smokers, and e-cigarette/dual users in Wave 3 that remained in the same tobacco use state in Wave 4 ranged from 63.4% to 97.2%, 29.2% to 89.8%, 34.8% to 89.7%, and 20.5% to 80.0%, respectively, dependent on tobacco use history. Individuals who were current tobacco users, but former smokers in the prior two years, were most likely to quit. CONCLUSIONS: Transition probabilities between tobacco use states varied widely depending on tobacco use history. Higher-order Markov models improve estimation of tobacco use over time and can inform understanding of trajectories of tobacco use behavior. IMPLICATIONS: Findings from this study suggest that transition probabilities between tobacco use states vary widely depending on tobacco use history. Tobacco product users (cigarette or e-cigarette/dual users) who were in the same tobacco use state in the prior two years were least likely to quit. Individuals who were current tobacco users, but former smokers in the prior two years, were most likely to quit. Quitting smoking for at least two years is an important milestone in the process of cessation.

Optimizing process flow diagrams to guide implementation of a colorectal cancer screening intervention in new settings.

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to assess acceptability of using process flow diagrams (or process maps) depicting a previously implemented evidence-based intervention (EBI) to inform the implementation of similar interventions in new settings. METHODS: We developed three different versions of process maps, each visualizing the implementation of the same multicomponent colorectal cancer (CRC) screening EBI in community health centers but including varying levels of detail about how it was implemented. Interviews with community health professionals and practitioners at other sites not affiliated with this intervention were conducted. We assessed their preferences related to the map designs, their potential utility for guiding EBI implementation, and the feasibility of implementing a similar intervention in their local setting given the information available in the process maps. RESULTS: Eleven community health representatives were interviewed. Participants were able to understand how the intervention was implemented and engage in discussions around the feasibility of implementing this type of complex intervention in their local system. Potential uses of the maps for supporting implementation included staff training, role delineation, monitoring and quality control, and adapting the components and implementation activities of the existing intervention. CONCLUSION: Process maps can potentially support decision-making about the adoption, implementation, and adaptation of existing EBIs in new contexts. Given the complexities involved in deciding whether and how to implement EBIs, these diagrams serve as visual, easily understood tools to inform potential future adopters of the EBI about the activities, resources, and staffing needed for implementation.

Engaging stakeholders in the use of an interactive simulation tool to support decision-making about the implementation of colorectal cancer screening interventions.

PURPOSE: We aimed to understand how an interactive, web-based simulation tool can be optimized to support decision-making about the implementation of evidence-based interventions (EBIs) for improving colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. METHODS: Interviews were conducted with decision-makers, including health administrators, advocates, and researchers, with a strong foundation in CRC prevention. Following a demonstration of the microsimulation modeling tool, participants reflected on the tool's potential impact for informing the selection and implementation of strategies for improving CRC screening and outcomes. The interviews assessed participants' preferences regarding the tool's design and content, comprehension of the model results, and recommendations for improving the tool. RESULTS: Seventeen decision-makers completed interviews. Themes regarding the tool's utility included building a case for EBI implementation, selecting EBIs to adopt, setting implementation goals, and understanding the evidence base. Reported barriers to guiding EBI implementation included the tool being too research-focused, contextual differences between the simulated and local contexts, and lack of specificity regarding the design of simulated EBIs. Recommendations to address these challenges included making the data more actionable, allowing users to enter their own model inputs, and providing a how-to guide for implementing the simulated EBIs. CONCLUSION: Diverse decision-makers found the simulation tool to be most useful for supporting early implementation phases, especially deciding which EBI(s) to implement. To increase the tool's utility, providing detailed guidance on how to implement the selected EBIs, and the extent to which users can expect similar CRC screening gains in their contexts, should be prioritized.

Using systems science to advance health equity in tobacco control: a causal loop diagram of smoking.

OBJECTIVES: Develop and use a causal loop diagram (CLD) of smoking among racial/ethnic minority and lower-income groups to anticipate the intended and unintended effects of tobacco control policies. METHODS: We developed a CLD to elucidate connections between individual, environmental and structural causes of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in smoking. The CLD was informed by a review of conceptual and empirical models of smoking, fundamental cause and social stress theories and 19 qualitative interviews with tobacco control stakeholders. The CLD was then used to examine the potential impacts of three tobacco control policies. RESULTS: The CLD includes 24 constructs encompassing individual (eg, risk perceptions), environmental (eg, marketing) and structural (eg, systemic racism) factors associated with smoking. Evaluations of tobacco control policies using the CLD identified potential unintended consequences that may maintain smoking disparities. For example, the intent of a smoke-free policy for public housing is to reduce smoking among residents. Our CLD suggests that the policy may reduce smoking among residents by reducing smoking among family/friends, which subsequently reduces pro-smoking norms and perceptions of tobacco use as low risk. On the other hand, some residents who smoke may violate the policy. Policy violations may result in financial strain and/or housing instability, which increases stress and reduces feelings of control, thus having the unintended consequence of increasing smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The CLD may be used to support stakeholder engagement in action planning and to identify non-traditional partners and approaches for tobacco control.

Local Health Department Values and Organizational Authorities Guiding Cross-Sector Work During COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the role that local health departments (LHDs) have in cross sector can address alone, including the work of value alignment and the strategic use of organizational authorities. The practices by which LHDs used their authorities to conduct cross-sector work during the pandemic need exploration. METHOD: We conducted semi-structured interviews with 19 public health leaders from metropolitan LHDs across the United States. Our interview guide assessed the values that LHD leadership prioritized in their cross-sector work as well as the range of organizational authorities they leveraged to influence external decision-making in other sectors. RESULTS: We found that LHDs approached cross-sector work by leaning on diverse values and authorities, each with unique implications for their work. The LHDs emphasized their approach to value alignment on a sector-by-sector basis, strategically using diverse organizational authorities-economic, political, moral, scientific, and logistical. While each authority and value we assessed was present across all interviewees, how each shaped action varied. Internally, LHDs emphasized certain authorities more than others to the degree that they more closely aligned with prioritized core values. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the ongoing need for LHD leadership to improve their ability to effectively communicate public health values and the unique authorities by which health-supporting work can be facilitated, including how this message must be adapted, depending on the specific sectors with which the LHD needs to partner and the governance arrangement in which the LHD is situated.

The Burden of COVID-19 on Caregivers of Children with Suspected Genetic Conditions: A Therapeutic Odyssey.

AIMS: Children with disabilities and rare or undiagnosed conditions and their families have faced numerous hardships of living during the COVID-19 pandemic. For those with undiagnosed conditions, the diagnostic odyssey can be long, expensive, and marked by uncertainty. We, therefore, sought to understand whether and how COVID-19 impacted the trajectory of children's care. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with 25 caregivers who, prior to the pandemic, were on a diagnostic odyssey for their children. RESULTS: Most caregivers did not report any interruptions to their child's diagnostic odyssey. The greatest impact was access to therapy services, including the suspension or loss of their child's in-person therapeutic care and difficulties with virtual therapies. This therapy gap caused caregivers to fear that their children were not making progress. CONCLUSION: Although much has been written about the challenges of diagnostic odysseys for children and their families, this study illustrates the importance of expanding the focus of these studies to include therapeutic odysseys. Because therapeutic odysseys continue regardless of whether diagnoses are made, future research should investigate how to support caregivers through children's therapies within and outside of the COVID-19 context.

Tools for Supporting the MCH Workforce in Addressing Complex Challenges: A Scoping Review of System Dynamics Modeling in Maternal and Child Health.

OBJECTIVES: System Dynamics (SD) is a promising decision support modeling approach for growing shared understanding of complex maternal and child health (MCH) trends. We sought to inventory published applications of SD to MCH topics and introduce the MCH workforce to these approaches through examples to support further iteration and use. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search (1958-2018) for applications of SD to MCH topics and characterized identified articles, following PRISMA guidelines. Pairs of experts abstracted information on SD approach and MCH relevance. RESULTS: We identified 101 articles describing applications of SD to MCH topics. APPROACH: 27 articles present qualitative diagrams, 10 introduce concept models that begin to quantify dynamics, and 67 present more fully tested/analyzed models. PURPOSE: The most common purposes described were to increase understanding (n = 55) and support strategic planning (n = 26). While the majority of studies (n = 53) did not involve stakeholders, 40 included what we considered to be a high level of stakeholder engagement - a strength of SD for MCH. TOPICS: The two Healthy People 2020 topics addressed most frequently were early and middle childhood (n = 30) and access to health services (n = 26). The most commonly addressed SDG goals were "End disease epidemics" (n = 26) and "End preventable deaths" (n = 26). CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: While several excellent examples of the application of SD in MCH were found, SD is still underutilized in MCH. Because SD is particularly well-suited to studying and addressing complex challenges with stakeholders, its expanded use by the MCH workforce could inform an understanding of contemporary MCH challenges.

A systems framework depicting how complex neighborhood dynamics and contextual factors could impact the effectiveness of an alcohol outlet zoning policy.

An updated zoning policy eliminating all alcohol outlets (liquor stores) in residential districts was implemented to reduce high rates of violent crime in Baltimore City. Diverse stakeholders were engaged in group model building (GMB) activities to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that elucidate the impact of the new zoning policy on crime, and more broadly, the potentially unintended social and environmental consequences of the policy. Three distinct groups, community advocates, city officials/academics, and community residents, participated in three separate GMB sessions. Three CLDs, one from each stakeholder group, were created to depict the possible outcomes of the zoning policy. Our findings offer insight into potential unintended consequences of removing liquor stores from residential areas that may undermine the policy. Community members described the need for additional supports related to mental health and substance use, opportunities for investment in the community, access to other goods and services, and community-police relations to ensure the policy achieved its intended goal of reducing violent crime. Our findings highlight the importance of timely engagement of local stakeholders to understand how complex neighborhood dynamics and contextual factors could impact the effectiveness of a zoning policy change.

The Clinical Sequencing Evidence-Generating Research Consortium: Integrating Genomic Sequencing in Diverse and Medically Underserved Populations.

The Clinical Sequencing Evidence-Generating Research (CSER) consortium, now in its second funding cycle, is investigating the effectiveness of integrating genomic (exome or genome) sequencing into the clinical care of diverse and medically underserved individuals in a variety of healthcare settings and disease states. The consortium comprises a coordinating center, six funded extramural clinical projects, and an ongoing National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) intramural project. Collectively, these projects aim to enroll and sequence over 6,100 participants in four years. At least 60% of participants will be of non-European ancestry or from underserved settings, with the goal of diversifying the populations that are providing an evidence base for genomic medicine. Five of the six clinical projects are enrolling pediatric patients with various phenotypes. One of these five projects is also enrolling couples whose fetus has a structural anomaly, and the sixth project is enrolling adults at risk for hereditary cancer. The ongoing NHGRI intramural project has enrolled primarily healthy adults. Goals of the consortium include assessing the clinical utility of genomic sequencing, exploring medical follow up and cascade testing of relatives, and evaluating patient-provider-laboratory level interactions that influence the use of this technology. The findings from the CSER consortium will offer patients, healthcare systems, and policymakers a clearer understanding of the opportunities and challenges of providing genomic medicine in diverse populations and settings, and contribute evidence toward developing best practices for the delivery of clinically useful and cost-effective genomic sequencing in diverse healthcare settings.

Congestion Pricing Policies and Safety Implications: a Scoping Review.

Congestion pricing policies (CPPs) are a common strategy for addressing urban traffic congestion. Research has explored several impacts of these policies (e.g., air quality, equity, congestion relief). The purpose of this review was to synthesize findings from publications examining CPP impacts on road user safety outcomes. We conducted a systematic search of relevant literature in four large research databases (Transport Research International Documentation, Web of Science, PubMed, and Scopus), searching from database inception through January 2021. We identified 18 eligible publications. Safety-related outcomes included overall crashes and injury crashes with stratification by injury severity and road user type (e.g., bicyclist, pedestrian). A majority of the publications examined zone-based CPPs (n = 13) and used observed data involving real policies (n = 10), as compared to a predicted or simulated analysis. Decreases in overall crashes and injuries for some road users were observed (e.g., car occupants). While some studies estimated short-term increases in injuries and crashes for bicyclists and motorcyclists (likely due to shifts from personal vehicle use to other transportation modes and increased exposure), most analyses focused on longer-term impacts and generally found a reversal and eventual decrease in injuries and crashes after a few years. The relative scarcity of safety outcomes in published literature, along with the wide breadth of CPP types, implementation contexts, and outcomes measured, demonstrates that more research on safety outcomes is needed. Cities and regions planning to implement CPPs should consider potential mode shifts and safety supports for all road users (e.g., bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure).

The Relationship Between Menthol Cigarette Use, Smoking Cessation, and Relapse: Findings From Waves 1 to 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: Some, but not all, studies suggest that menthol cigarette smokers have more difficulty quitting than non-menthol cigarette smokers. Inconsistent findings may be a result of differences in smoker characteristics (eg, daily vs. non-daily smokers) across studies. This study examines the relationship between menthol cigarette use, cessation, and relapse in a longitudinal, nationally representative study of tobacco use in the United States. AIMS AND METHODS: Data come from four waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Waves 1-4 were conducted approximately annually from September 2013 to January 2018. Generalized estimating equation models were used to prospectively examine the relationship between menthol cigarette use, cessation, and relapse in non-daily and daily adult (18+) smokers. Cessation was defined as smokers who had not used cigarettes within the past 30 days at their subsequent assessment. Relapse was defined as cessation followed by past 30-day smoking in the next assessment. RESULTS: Among daily smokers (n = 13 710), 4.0% and 5.3% of menthol and non-menthol smokers quit after 1 year, respectively. In an adjusted model, menthol smokers were less likely to quit compared with non-menthol smokers (odds ratio [OR] = 0.76 [0.63, 0.91]). When the sample was stratified by race/ethnicity, African American (OR = 0.47 [0.24, 0.91]) and White (OR = 0.78 [0.63, 0.97]) daily menthol users were less likely to have quit. Among non-daily smokers (n = 3608), there were no significant differences in quit rates. Among daily and non-daily former smokers, there were also no differences in relapse rates between menthol and non-menthol smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Menthol cigarette use is associated with lower odds of cessation. IMPLICATIONS: Findings from this study suggest that menthol cigarette use is associated with lower odds of cessation, but not relapse. Removing menthol cigarettes from the market may improve cessation rates.

Action Learning Cohort Series: An Innovative Community-Engaged Approach for Translating Research Into Practice.

Cultivating strong partnerships among community and academic stakeholders expedites the translation of research findings into practice and communities by enhancing opportunities for research dissemination and implementation. However, the lack of systematic methods for community stakeholder engagement may decelerate the translational research process. The North Carolina Translational Research and Clinical Sciences Institute implemented an innovative approach to community engagement called the Action Learning Cohort (ALC) Series. The ALC Series, a workgroup extension of a professional conference, used action learning and systems thinking strategies to conceptualize and develop a product aimed at preventing, treating, and controlling hypertension in eastern North Carolina. We evaluated the acceptability and practicality of the ALC Series using survey, focus group, and interview pilot data. Action learning and systems thinking strategies led ALC stakeholders to develop and disseminate The Empathy Building Resource Guide: A Toolkit for Enhancing Patient-Provider Relationships in the Treatment, Management, and Prevention of Hypertension. Stakeholders rated the Series as satisfactory and acknowledged gains in knowledge and desire for engagement with fellow ALC stakeholders beyond the Series. The ALC Series approach is a potentially practical and acceptable model for systematically engaging community stakeholders in translating knowledge into a product that addresses health topics like hypertension.

The Association Between the Supply of Nonpharmacologic Providers, Use of Nonpharmacologic Pain Treatments, and High-risk Opioid Prescription Patterns Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Persistent Musculoskeletal Pain.

BACKGROUND: Opioids are prescribed more frequently than nonpharmacologic treatments for persistent musculoskeletal pain (MSP). We estimate the association between the supply of physical therapy (PT) and mental health (MH) providers and early nonpharmacologic service use with high-risk opioid prescriptions among Medicare beneficiaries with persistent MSP. RESEARCH DESIGN: We retrospectively studied Medicare beneficiaries (>65 y) enrolled in Fee-for-Service and Part D (2007-2014) with a new persistent MSP episode and no opioid prescription during the prior 6 months. Independent variables were nonpharmacologic provider supply per capita and early nonpharmacologic service use (any use during first 3 mo). One year outcomes were long-term opioid use (LTOU) (≥90 days' supply) and high daily dose (HDD) (≥50 mg morphine equivalent). We used multinomial regression and generalized estimating equations and present adjusted odds ratios (aORs). RESULTS: About 2.4% of beneficiaries had LTOU; 11.9% had HDD. The supply of MH providers was not associated with LTOU and HDD. Each additional PT/10,000 people/county was associated with greater odds of LTOU [aOR: 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.11). Early MH use was associated with lower odds of a low-risk opioid use (aOR: 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.96), but greater odds of LTOU (aOR: 1.93; 95% CI, 1.28-2.90). Among beneficiaries with an opioid prescription, early PT was associated with lower odds of LTOU (aOR: 0.75; 95% CI, 0.64-0.89), but greater odds of HDD (aOR: 1.25; 95% CI, 1.15-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of nonpharmacologic services on opioid use may be limited. Research on effective delivery of nonpharmacologic services to reduce high-risk opioid use for older adults with MSP is needed.

System Support Mapping: A Novel Systems Thinking Tool Applied to Assess the Needs of Maternal and Child Health Title V Professionals and Their Partners.

CONTEXT: The Maternal and Child Health (MCH) workforce aims to improve health outcomes for women, children, and families. The work requires coordination and partnerships that span disciplines and service systems. As such, workforce needs assessment requires an approach that is broad, flexible, and "systems-aware." OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the use of System Support Mapping, a novel systems thinking tool that was used to guide participants through a structured assessment of their discrete responsibilities, key needs, and specific resources required for each. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-four Title V MCH professionals and partners from 15 states or jurisdictions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Description and frequency of Title V MCH professionals' coded roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes. An aggregated map illustrating interconnections between identified codes is presented. RESULTS: State- and local-level MCH professionals reported a range of roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes. The most and least frequently reported roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes by state- and local-level MCH professionals are listed, as well as the most frequent connections between those responses. The most frequent responsibility reported in local maps was "link to or provide care or resources" (82%), whereas the most frequent responsibility reported in state maps was "system management" (65%). System management was indirectly connected to 3 wishes: "access to data or information," "funding or resources," and "collaboration, coordination, or support from community or other external organizations." CONCLUSIONS: System Support Mapping can be used to support needs assessment with MCH professionals. System Support Maps show not only the most and least frequently reported roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes of participants but also how those responses are connected and potentially interdependent. System Support Maps may be useful for MCH leaders determining how best to organize their teams to take on complex public health challenges and prioritize improvements that will better support their work.

Stakeholder perspectives on addressing adverse events from adjuvant cancer therapy: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: With increasing survival rates, a growing population of patients with cancer have received or will receive adjuvant therapy to prevent cancer recurrences. Patients and caregivers will confront the complexities of balancing the preventative benefits of adjuvant therapy with possible near-term or long-term adverse events (AEs). Adjuvant treatment-related AEs (from minimal to severe) can impact therapeutic adherence, quality of life, emotional and physical health, and survival. However, to the authors' knowledge, limited information is available regarding how stakeholders use or desire to use adjuvant-related AE information to inform the care of patients with cancer. METHODS: A qualitative, purposeful sampling approach was used to elicit stakeholder feedback via semistructured interviews (24 interviews). Drug development, drug regulatory, clinical, payer, and patient/patient advocacy stakeholders were questioned about the generation, dissemination, and use of adjuvant treatment-related AE information to inform the care of patients with cancer. Transcripts were coded independently by 2 senior health care researchers and reconciled to identify key themes. RESULTS: All stakeholder groups in the current study identified needed improvements in each of the following 4 areas: 1) improving the accessibility and relevance of AE-related information; 2) better integrating and implementing available information regarding AEs for decisions; 3) connecting contemporary cultural and economic value systems to the generation and use of information regarding adjuvant treatment-related AEs; and 4) addressing a lack of alignment and ownership of stakeholder efforts to improve the use of AE information in the adjuvant setting. CONCLUSIONS: Despite commonalities in the overall needs identified by the diverse stakeholders in the current study, broad systemic change has been stymied. The current study identified the lack of alignment and the absence of a central "owner" of these diffuse efforts as a previously unrecognized hurdle to realizing the desired systemic improvements. Future initiatives aimed at improving quality of life and outcomes for patients receiving adjuvant therapy through the improved use of AE information must address this challenge through innovative collectives and novel leadership strategies.

Mailed FIT (fecal immunochemical test), navigation or patient reminders? Using microsimulation to inform selection of interventions to increase colorectal cancer screening in Medicaid enrollees.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) can be effectively prevented or detected with guideline concordant screening, yet Medicaid enrollees experience disparities. We used microsimulation to project CRC screening patterns, CRC cases averted, and life-years gained in the population of 68,077 Oregon Medicaid enrollees 50-64 over a five year period starting in January 2019. The simulation estimated the cost-effectiveness of five intervention scenarios - academic detailing plus provider audit and feedback (Detailing+), patient reminders (Reminders), mailing a Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) directly to the patient's home (Mailed FIT), patient navigation (Navigation), and mailed FIT with Navigation (Mailed FIT + Navigation) - compared to usual care. Each intervention scenario raised CRC screening rates compared to usual care, with improvements as high as 11.6 percentage points (Mailed FIT + Navigation) and as low as 2.5 percentage points (Reminders) after one year. Compared to usual care, Mailed FIT + Navigation would raise CRC screening rates 20.2 percentage points after five years - averting nearly 77 cancer cases (a reduction of 113 per 100,000) and exceeding national screening targets. Over a five year period, Reminders, Mailed FIT and Mailed FIT + Navigation were expected to be cost effective if stakeholders were willing to pay $230 or less per additional year up-to-date (at a cost of $22, $59, and $227 respectively), whereas Detailing+ and Navigation were more costly for the same benefits. To approach national CRC screening targets, health system stakeholders are encouraged to implement Mailed FIT with or without Navigation and Reminders.

Estimating the impact of insurance expansion on colorectal cancer and related costs in North Carolina: A population-level simulation analysis.

Although screening is effective in reducing incidence, mortality, and costs of treating colorectal cancer (CRC), it remains underutilized, in part due to limited insurance access. We used microsimulation to estimate the health and financial effects of insurance expansion and reduction scenarios in North Carolina (NC). We simulated the full lifetime of a simulated population of 3,298,265 residents age-eligible for CRC screening (ages 50-75) during a 5-year period starting January 1, 2018, including polyp incidence and progression and CRC screening, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality. Insurance scenarios included: status quo, which in NC includes access to the Health Insurance Exchange (HIE) under the Affordable Care Act (ACA); no ACA; NC Medicaid expansion, and Medicare-for-all. The insurance expansion scenarios would increase percent up-to-date with screening by 0.3 and 7.1 percentage points for Medicaid expansion and Medicare-for-all, respectively, while insurance reduction would reduce percent up-to-date by 1.1 percentage points, compared to the status quo (51.7% up-to-date), at the end of the 5-year period. Throughout these individuals' lifetimes, this change in CRC screening/testing results in an estimated 498 CRC cases averted with Medicaid expansion and 6031 averted with Medicare-for-all, and an additional 1782 cases if health insurance gains associated with ACA are lost. Estimated cost savings - balancing increased CRC screening/testing costs against decreased cancer treatment costs - are approximately $30 M and $970 M for Medicaid expansion and Medicare-for-all scenarios, respectively, compared to status quo. Insurance expansion is likely to improve CRC screening both overall and in underserved populations while saving money, with the largest savings realized by Medicare.

Does a transition to accountable care in Medicaid shift the modality of colorectal cancer testing?

BACKGROUND: Health care reform is changing preventive services delivery. This study explored trajectories in colorectal cancer (CRC) testing over a 5-year period that included implementation of 16 Medicaid Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs, 2012) and Medicaid expansion (2014) - two provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - within the state of Oregon, USA. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of Oregon's Medicaid claims for enrollee's eligible for CRC screening (50-64 years) spanning January 2010 through December 2014. Our analysis was conducted and refined April 2016 through June 2018. The analysis assessed the annual probability of patients receiving CRC testing and the modality used (e.g., colonoscopy, fecal testing) relative to a baseline year (2010). We hypothesized that CRC testing would increase following Medicaid ACO formation - called Coordinated Care Organizations (CCOs). RESULTS: A total of 132,424 unique Medicaid enrollees (representing 255,192 person-years) met inclusion criteria over the 5-year study. Controlling for demographic and regional factors, the predicted probability of CRC testing was significantly higher in 2014 (+ 1.4 percentage points, p < 0.001) compared to the 2010 baseline but not in 2012 or 2013. Increased fecal testing using Fecal Occult Blood Tests (FOBT) or Fecal Immunochemical Tests (FIT) played a prominent role in 2014. The uptick in statewide fecal testing appears driven primarily by a subset of CCOs. CONCLUSIONS: Observed CRC testing did not immediately increase following the transition to CCOs in 2012. However increased testing in 2014, may reflect a delay in implementation of interventions to increase CRC screening and/or a strong desire by newly insured Medicaid CCO members to receive preventive care.

A Qualitative, Systems Thinking Approach to Study Self-Management in Women With Migraine.

BACKGROUND: A dearth of effective and affordable treatment options has rendered nonpharmacological self-management a crucial part of living with migraine-a debilitating neurobiological condition without cure that disproportionately disables vulnerable women. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe the development and use of a systems thinking, problem-structuring data collection approach that was applied to the study of migraine self-management with women in diverse social locations. METHODS: Two systems mapping activities were developed for use in focus groups: one to unpack a migraine episode (system support map) and the other (connection circle [CC]) to construct a mental model of self-management. Later in the process, a strengths-based problem-solving tool was developed to replace the CC. RESULTS: The CCs-often enlightening for affluent participants-left marginalized women feeling overwhelmed and defeated, as a solution to one challenge became the cause of another. Through constant comparison analysis, we recalibrated the approach using a theory, clinical experience, and participant feedback and replaced the CC with a strengths-based problem-solving activity highlighting relationships and trade-offs in a more agential, actionable way. DISCUSSION: Bringing a critical lens and strengths-based approaches to work with vulnerable populations can replace traditional deficit thinking in healthcare, developing options for leveraging resources and understanding complex health behaviors without losing sight of systemic, distributional justice issues. These systems thinking tools can provide a way to extrapolate the complexities of actual self-management behaviors and challenges faced by vulnerable women with migraine versus what they may be instructed to do by a medical model that does not always account for the social and structural determinants of equity and health.