Is prostate cancer different in black men? Answers from 3 natural history models.

BACKGROUND: Black men in the United States have substantially higher prostate cancer incidence rates than the general population. The extent to which this incidence disparity is because prostate cancer is more prevalent, more aggressive, and/or more frequently diagnosed in black men is unknown. METHODS: The authors estimated 3 independently developed models of prostate cancer natural history in black men and in the general population using an updated reconstruction of prostate-specific antigen screening, based on the National Health Interview Survey in 2005 and on prostate cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program during 1975 through 2000. By using the estimated models, the natural history of prostate cancer was compared between black men and the general population. RESULTS: The models projected that from 30% to 43% (range across models) of black men develop preclinical prostate cancer by age 85 years, a risk that is (relatively) 28% to 56% higher than that in the general population. Among men who had preclinical disease onset, black men had a similar risk of diagnosis (range, 35%-49%) compared with the general population (32%-44%), but their risk of progression to metastatic disease by the time of diagnosis was from 44% to 75% higher than that in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer incidence patterns implicate higher incidence of preclinical disease and higher risk of metastatic progression among black men. The findings suggest screening black men earlier than white men and support further research into the benefit-harm tradeoffs of more aggressive screening policies for black men. Cancer 2017;123:2312-2319. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Expected population impacts of discontinued prostate-specific antigen screening.

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer has high risks of overdiagnosis, particularly among older men, and reports from screening trials indicate that it saves few lives after 11 to 13 years of follow-up. New clinical guidelines recommend against PSA screening for all men or for men aged >70 years, but, to the authors' knowledge, the expected population effects of these guidelines have not been studied to date. METHODS: Two models of prostate cancer natural history and diagnosis were previously developed using reconstructed PSA screening patterns and prostate cancer incidence in the United States. Assuming a survival benefit of PSA screening consistent with the screening trials, the authors used the models to predict incidence and mortality rates for the period from 2013 through 2025 under continued PSA screening and under discontinued PSA screening for all men or for men aged >70 years. RESULTS: The models predicted that continuation of recent screening rates will overdiagnose 710,000 to 1,120,000 men (range between models) but will avoid 36,000 to 57,000 cancer deaths over the period 2013 through 2025. Discontinued screening for all men eliminated 100% of overdiagnoses but failed to prevent 100% of avoidable cancer deaths. Continued screening for men aged <70 years eliminated 64% to 66% of overdiagnoses but failed to prevent 36% to 39% of avoidable cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuing PSA screening for all men may generate many avoidable cancer deaths. Continuing PSA screening for men aged <70 years could prevent greater than one-half of these avoidable cancer deaths while dramatically reducing overdiagnoses compared with continued PSA screening for all ages.