RESUMO
Lassa fever (LF) is endemic to Nigeria, where the disease causes substantial rates of illness and death. In this article, we report an analysis of the epidemiologic and clinical aspects of the LF outbreak that occurred in Nigeria during January 1-May 6, 2018. A total of 1,893 cases were reported; 423 were laboratory-confirmed cases, among which 106 deaths were recorded (case-fatality rate 25.1%). Among all confirmed cases, 37 occurred in healthcare workers. The secondary attack rate among 5,001 contacts was 0.56%. Most (80.6%) confirmed cases were reported from 3 states (Edo, Ondo, and Ebonyi). Fatal outcomes were significantly associated with being elderly; no administration of ribavirin; and the presence of a cough, hemorrhaging, and unconsciousness. The findings in this study should lead to further LF research and provide guidance to those preparing to respond to future outbreaks.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Febre Lassa/diagnóstico , Febre Lassa/epidemiologia , Vírus Lassa , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Geografia Médica , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Febre Lassa/história , Febre Lassa/virologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Razão de Chances , Prevalência , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Estações do Ano , Avaliação de Sintomas , Adulto JovemRESUMO
We reviewed data pertaining to the massive wave of Lassa fever cases that occurred in Nigeria in 2018. No new virus strains were detected, but in 2018, the outbreak response was intensified, additional diagnostic support was available, and surveillance sensitivity increased. These factors probably contributed to the high case count.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Febre Lassa/epidemiologia , Animais , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Incidência , Febre Lassa/diagnóstico , Febre Lassa/história , Febre Lassa/virologia , Vírus Lassa/classificação , Vírus Lassa/genética , Vírus Lassa/isolamento & purificação , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Estações do AnoRESUMO
Lassa fever cases have increased in Nigeria since 2016 with the highest number, 633 cases, reported in 2018. From 1 January to 28 April 2019, 554 laboratory-confirmed cases including 124 deaths were reported in 21 states in Nigeria. A public health emergency was declared on 22 January by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. We describe the various outbreak responses that have been implemented, including establishment of emergency thresholds and guidelines for case management.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Febre Lassa/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Emergências/epidemiologia , Guias como Assunto , Pessoal de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Febre Lassa/epidemiologia , Febre Lassa/mortalidade , Vírus Lassa , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.