ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due to Particulate Matter Pollution in New York City.

Exposure to PM2.5 is associated with hundreds of premature mortalities every year in New York City (NYC). Current air quality and health impact assessment tools provide county-wide estimates but are inadequate for assessing health benefits at neighborhood scales, especially for evaluating policy options related to energy efficiency or climate goals. We developed a new ZIP Code-Level Air Pollution Policy Assessment (ZAPPA) tool for NYC by integrating two reduced form models─Community Air Quality Tools (C-TOOLS) and the Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA)─that propagate emissions changes to estimate air pollution exposures and health benefits. ZAPPA leverages custom higher resolution inputs for emissions, health incidences, and population. It, then, enables rapid policy evaluation with localized ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level analysis of potential health and monetary benefits stemming from air quality management decisions. We evaluated the modeled 2016 PM2.5 values against observed values at EPA and NYCCAS monitors, finding good model performance (FAC2, 1; NMSE, 0.05). We, then, applied ZAPPA to assess PM2.5 reduction-related health benefits from five illustrative policy scenarios in NYC focused on (1) commercial cooking, (2) residential and commercial building fuel regulations, (3) fleet electrification, (4) congestion pricing in Manhattan, and (5) these four combined as a "citywide sustainable policy implementation" scenario. The citywide scenario estimates an average reduction in PM2.5 of 0.9 µg/m3. This change translates to avoiding 210-475 deaths, 340 asthma emergency department visits, and monetized health benefits worth $2B to $5B annually, with significant variation across NYC's 192 ZCTAs. ZCTA-level assessments can help prioritize interventions in neighborhoods that would see the most health benefits from air pollution reduction. ZAPPA can provide quantitative insights on health and monetary benefits for future sustainability policy development in NYC.

Power Outage Preparedness and Concern among Vulnerable New York City Residents.

Power outages can impact health, and certain populations may be more at risk. Personal preparedness may reduce impacts, but information on power outage preparedness and risk perception among vulnerable populations is limited. We examined power outage preparedness and concern among New York City residents, including vulnerable populations defined as older adults (≥ 65 years), and respondents with household members who require assistance with daily activities or depend on electric medical devices. A random sample telephone survey was conducted during November-December 2016. Preparedness was defined as having a three-day supply of drinking water, non-perishable food, and a working flashlight. Among all respondents (n = 887), 58% were prepared and 46% expressed concern about health. Respondents with electric-dependent household members (9% of all respondents) tended to have higher preparedness (70 vs. 56% of respondents without electric-dependent household members). Among this group, only 40% reported being registered with a utility company to receive early notification of outages. While the subgroup sample was small, respondents with registered electric-dependent household members had lower preparedness than those with non-registered users (59 vs. 76%). Respondents with household members who needed assistance had comparable levels of preparedness to respondents without someone who needed assistance (59 vs. 57%). Older adults had greater preparedness than younger adults (65 vs. 56%). Health concerns were greater among all vulnerable groups than the general population. Levels of preparedness varied among vulnerable respondents, and awareness of power outage notification programs was low. Our findings highlight the need to increase awareness and preparedness among at-risk people.

A-DROP system for prognostication of NHCAP inpatients.

Nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia (NHCAP) is a category of healthcare-associated pneumonia that was modified for the healthcare system of Japan. The NHCAP guidelines stated the difficulty in assessing the severity classifications, for instance, A-DROP. We compared the usefulness of different severity classifications (A-DROP, CURB-65, PSI, and I-ROAD) in predicting the prognosis of nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia. We conducted a retrospective analysis on 303 adult patients hospitalized for nursing healthcare-associated pneumonia and community-acquired pneumonia, which were diagnosed at the Department of Respiratory Medicine of Niigata General City Hospital between January 2012 and December 2014. We evaluated 159 patients with community-acquired pneumonia and 144 with nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia. In the nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia group, 30-days mortality and in-hospital mortality rates were 6.5% and 8.7%, respectively, in severe cases and 16.1% and 25.0%, respectively, in the most severe cases, based on A-DROP. With I-ROAD, these rates were 11.1% and 11.1%, respectively, in group B and 14.9% and 20.7%, respectively, in group C. With PSI, the rates were 2.3% and 6.8%, respectively, in class IV and 14.3% and 19.8%, respectively, in class V. Despite some variability due to the small sample size, both the 30-days and in-hospital mortality rates increased as the severity increased. In this study, both the 30-days mortality and in-hospital mortality rates in the nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia group tended to increase in severity with the A-DROP. We found that A-DROP was useful in predicting the prognosis of nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia.

Particulate Air Pollution and Clinical Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) air pollution is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the impact of PM on clinical risk factors for CVD in healthy subjects is unclear. We examined the relationship of PM with levels of circulating lipids and blood pressure in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a large nationally representative US survey. METHODS: This study was based on 11,623 adult participants of NHANES III (1988-1994; median age 41.0). Serum lipids and blood pressure were measured during the NHANES III examination. Average exposure for 1988-1994 to particulate matter <10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) at the residences of participants was estimated based on measurements from US Environmental Protection Agency monitors. Multivariate linear regression was used to estimate the associations of PM10 with lipids and blood pressure. RESULTS: An interquartile range width increase in PM10 exposure (11.1 µg/m) in the study population was associated with 2.42% greater serum triglycerides (95% confidence interval: 1.09, 3.76); multivariate adjusted means of triglycerides according to increasing quartiles of PM10 were 137.6, 142.5, 142.6, and 148.9 mg/dl, respectively. An interquartile range width increase in PM10 was associated with 1.43% greater total cholesterol (95% confidence interval: 1.21, 1.66). These relationships with triglycerides and total cholesterol did not differ by age or region. Associations of PM10 with blood pressure were modest. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this large, diverse study indicate that greater long-term PM10 exposure is associated with elevated serum triglycerides and total cholesterol, potentially mediating air pollution-related effects on CVD.

Intraurban Variation of Fine Particle Elemental Concentrations in New York City.

Few past studies have collected and analyzed within-city variation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) elements. We developed land-use regression (LUR) models to characterize spatial variation of 15 PM2.5 elements collected at 150 street-level locations in New York City during December 2008-November 2009: aluminum, bromine, calcium, copper, iron, potassium, manganese, sodium, nickel, lead, sulfur, silicon, titanium, vanadium, and zinc. Summer- and winter-only data available at 99 locations in the subsequent 3 years, up to November 2012, were analyzed to examine variation of LUR results across years. Spatial variation of each element was modeled in LUR including six major emission indicators: boilers burning residual oil; traffic density; industrial structures; construction/demolition (these four indicators in buffers of 50 to 1000 m), commercial cooking based on a dispersion model; and ship traffic based on inverse distance to navigation path weighted by associated port berth volume. All the elements except sodium were associated with at least one source, with R(2) ranging from 0.2 to 0.8. Strong source-element associations, persistent across years, were found for residual oil burning (nickel, zinc), near-road traffic (copper, iron, and titanium), and ship traffic (vanadium). These emission source indicators were also significant and consistent predictors of PM2.5 concentrations across years.

The contribution of motor vehicle emissions to ambient fine particulate matter public health impacts in New York City: a health burden assessment.

BACKGROUND: On-road vehicles are an important source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in cities, but spatially varying traffic emissions and vulnerable populations make it difficult to assess impacts to inform policy and the public. METHODS: We estimated PM2.5-attributable mortality and morbidity from on-road vehicle generated air pollution in the New York City (NYC) region using high-spatial-resolution emissions estimates, air quality modeling, and local health incidence data to evaluate variations in impacts by vehicle class, neighborhood, and area socioeconomic status. We developed multiple 'zero-out' emission scenarios focused on regional and local cars, trucks, and buses in the NYC region. We simulated PM2.5 concentrations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model at a 1-km spatial resolution over NYC and combined modeled estimates with monitored data from 2010 to 2012. We applied health impact functions and local health data to quantify the PM2.5-attributable health burden on NYC residents within 42 city neighborhoods. RESULTS: We estimate that all on-road mobile sources in the NYC region contribute to 320 (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 220-420) deaths and 870 (95 % CI: 440-1280) hospitalizations and emergency department visits annually within NYC due to PM2.5 exposures, accounting for 5850 (95 % CI: 4020-7620) years of life lost. Trucks and buses within NYC accounted for the largest share of on-road mobile-attributable ambient PM2.5, contributing up to 14.9 % of annual average levels across 1-km grid cells, and were associated with 170 (95 % CI: 110-220) PM2.5-attributable deaths each year. These contributions were not evenly distributed, with high poverty neighborhoods experiencing a larger share of the exposure and health burden than low poverty neighborhoods. CONCLUSION: Reducing motor vehicle emissions, especially from trucks and buses, could produce significant health benefits and reduce disparities in impacts. Our high-spatial-resolution modeling approach could improve assessment of on-road vehicle health impacts in other cities.

Ambient Fine Particulate Matter, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested a possible association between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and the development of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, but effect sizes have been small and methodologic weaknesses preclude firm conclusions. METHODS: We linked birth certificates in New York City in 2008-2010 to hospital discharge diagnoses and estimated air pollution exposure based on maternal address. The New York City Community Air Survey provided refined estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at the maternal residence. We estimated the association between exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 in the first and second trimester and risk of gestational hypertension, mild preeclampsia, and severe preeclampsia among 268,601 births. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, we found evidence of a positive association between both pollutants and gestational hypertension. However, after adjustment for individual covariates, socioeconomic deprivation, and delivery hospital, we did not find evidence of an association between PM2.5 or NO2 in the first or second trimester and any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our data did not provide clear evidence of an effect of ambient air pollution on hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Results need to be interpreted with caution considering the quality of the available exposure and health outcome measures and the uncertain impact of adjusting for hospital. Relative to previous studies, which have tended to identify positive associations with PM2.5 and NO2, our large study size, refined air pollution exposure estimates, hospital-based disease ascertainment, and little risk of confounding by socioeconomic deprivation, does not provide evidence for an association.

Impact of a letter-grade program on restaurant sanitary conditions and diner behavior in New York City.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the impact of the New York City restaurant letter-grading program on restaurant hygiene, food safety practices, and public awareness. METHODS: We analyzed data from 43,448 restaurants inspected between 2007 and 2013 to measure changes in inspection score and violation citations since program launch in July 2010. We used binomial regression to assess probability of scoring 0 to 13 points (A-range score). Two population-based random-digit-dial telephone surveys assessed public perceptions of the program. RESULTS: After we controlled for repeated restaurant observations, season of inspection, and chain restaurant status, the probability of scoring 0 to 13 points on an unannounced inspection increased 35% (95% confidence interval [CI]=31%, 40%) 3 years after compared with 3 years before grading. There were notable improvements in compliance with some specific requirements, including having a certified kitchen manager on site and being pest-free. More than 91% (95% CI=88%, 94%) of New Yorkers approved of the program and 88% (95% CI=85%, 92%) considered grades in dining decisions in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: Restaurant letter grading in New York City has resulted in improved sanitary conditions on unannounced inspection, suggesting that the program is an effective regulatory tool.

Area-level socioeconomic deprivation, nitrogen dioxide exposure, and term birth weight in New York City.

Numerous studies have linked air pollution with adverse birth outcomes, but relatively few have examined differential associations across the socioeconomic gradient. To evaluate interaction effects of gestational nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and area-level socioeconomic deprivation on fetal growth, we used: (1) highly spatially-resolved air pollution data from the New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS); and (2) spatially-stratified principle component analysis of census variables previously associated with birth outcomes to define area-level deprivation. New York City (NYC) hospital birth records for years 2008-2010 were restricted to full-term, singleton births to non-smoking mothers (n=243,853). We used generalized additive mixed models to examine the potentially non-linear interaction of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and deprivation categories on birth weight (and estimated linear associations, for comparison), adjusting for individual-level socio-demographic characteristics and sensitivity testing adjustment for co-pollutant exposures. Estimated NO2 exposures were highest, and most varying, among mothers residing in the most-affluent census tracts, and lowest among mothers residing in mid-range deprivation tracts. In non-linear models, we found an inverse association between NO2 and birth weight in the least-deprived and most-deprived areas (p-values<0.001 and 0.05, respectively) but no association in the mid-range of deprivation (p=0.8). Likewise, in linear models, a 10 ppb increase in NO2 was associated with a decrease in birth weight among mothers in the least-deprived and most-deprived areas of -16.2g (95% CI: -21.9 to -10.5) and -11.0 g (95% CI: -22.8 to 0.9), respectively, and a non-significant change in the mid-range areas [ß=0.5 g (95% CI: -7.7 to 8.7)]. Linear slopes in the most- and least-deprived quartiles differed from the mid-range (reference group) (p-values<0.001 and 0.09, respectively). The complex patterning in air pollution exposure and deprivation in NYC, however, precludes simple interpretation of interactive effects on birth weight, and highlights the importance of considering differential distributions of air pollution concentrations, and potential differences in susceptibility, across deprivation levels.

The associations between daily spring pollen counts, over-the-counter allergy medication sales, and asthma syndrome emergency department visits in New York City, 2002-2012.

BACKGROUND: Many types of tree pollen trigger seasonal allergic illness, but their population-level impacts on allergy and asthma morbidity are not well established, likely due to the paucity of long records of daily pollen data that allow analysis of multi-day effects. Our objective in this study was therefore to determine the impacts of individual spring tree pollen types on over-the-counter allergy medication sales and asthma emergency department (ED) visits. METHODS: Nine clinically-relevant spring tree pollen genera (elm, poplar, maple, birch, beech, ash, sycamore/London planetree, oak, and hickory) measured in Armonk, NY, were analyzed for their associations with over-the-counter allergy medication sales and daily asthma syndrome ED visits from patients' chief complaints or diagnosis codes in New York City during March 1st through June 10th, 2002-2012. Multi-day impacts of pollen on the outcomes (0-3 days and 0-7 days for the medication sales and ED visits, respectively) were estimated using a distributed lag Poisson time-series model adjusting for temporal trends, day-of-week, weather, and air pollution. For asthma syndrome ED visits, age groups were also analyzed. Year-to-year variation in the average peak dates and the 10th-to-90th percentile duration between pollen and the outcomes were also examined with Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: Mid-spring pollen types (maple, birch, beech, ash, oak, and sycamore/London planetree) showed the strongest significant associations with both outcomes, with cumulative rate ratios up to 2.0 per 0-to-98th percentile pollen increase (e.g., 1.9 [95% CI: 1.7, 2.1] and 1.7 [95% CI: 1.5, 1.9] for the medication sales and ED visits, respectively, for ash). Lagged associations were longer for asthma syndrome ED visits than for the medication sales. Associations were strongest in children (ages 5-17; e.g., a cumulative rate ratio of 2.6 [95% CI: 2.1, 3.1] per 0-to-98th percentile increase in ash). The average peak dates and durations of some of these mid-spring pollen types were also associated with those of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Tree pollen peaking in mid-spring exhibit substantive impacts on allergy, and asthma exacerbations, particularly in children. Given the narrow time window of these pollen peak occurrences, public health and clinical approaches to anticipate and reduce allergy/asthma exacerbation should be developed.

Ambient fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and term birth weight in New York, New York.

Building on a unique exposure assessment project in New York, New York, we examined the relationship of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm and nitrogen dioxide with birth weight, restricting the population to term births to nonsmokers, along with other restrictions, to isolate the potential impact of air pollution on growth. We included 252,967 births in 2008-2010 identified in vital records, and we assigned exposure at the residential location by using validated models that accounted for spatial and temporal factors. Estimates of association were adjusted for individual and contextual sociodemographic characteristics and season, using linear mixed models to quantify the predicted change in birth weight in grams related to increasing pollution levels. Adjusted estimates for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm indicated that for each 10-µg/m(3) increase in exposure, birth weights declined by 18.4, 10.5, 29.7, and 48.4 g for exposures in the first, second, and third trimesters and for the total pregnancy, respectively. Adjusted estimates for nitrogen dioxide indicated that for each 10-ppb increase in exposure, birth weights declined by 14.2, 15.9, 18.0, and 18.0 g for exposures in the first, second, and third trimesters and for the total pregnancy, respectively. These results strongly support the association of urban air pollution exposure with reduced fetal growth.

The public health benefits of reducing fine particulate matter through conversion to cleaner heating fuels in New York City.

In recent years, both New York State and City issued regulations to reduce emissions from burning heating oil. To assess the benefits of these programs in New York City, where the density of emissions and vulnerable populations vary greatly, we simulated the air quality benefits of scenarios reflecting no action, partial, and complete phase-out of high-sulfur heating fuels using the Community MultiScale Air Quality (CMAQ) model conducted at a high spatial resolution (1 km). We evaluated the premature mortality and morbidity benefits of the scenarios within 42 city neighborhoods and computed benefits by neighborhood poverty status. The complete phase-out scenario reduces annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by an estimated 0.71 µg/m(3) city-wide (average of 1 km estimates, 10-90th percentile: 0.1-1.6 µg/m(3)), avoiding an estimated 290 premature deaths, 180 hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and 550 emergency department visits for asthma each year. The largest improvements were seen in areas of highest building and population density and the majority of benefits have occurred through the partial phase out of high-sulfur heating fuel already achieved. While emissions reductions were greatest in low-poverty neighborhoods, health benefits are estimated to be greatest in high-poverty neighborhoods due to higher baseline morbidity and mortality rates.

Spatial variation in environmental noise and air pollution in New York City.

Exposure to environmental noise from traffic is common in urban areas and has been linked to increased risks of adverse health effects including cardiovascular disease. Because traffic sources also produce air pollutants that increase the risk of cardiovascular morbidity, associations between traffic exposures and health outcomes may involve confounding and/or synergisms between air pollution and noise. While prior studies have characterized intraurban spatial variation in air pollution in New York City (NYC), limited data exists on the levels and spatial variation in noise levels. We measured 1-week equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (Leq) at 56 sites during the fall of 2012 across NYC locations with varying traffic intensity and building density that are routinely monitored for combustion-related air pollutants. We evaluated correlations among several noise metrics used to characterize noise exposures, including Leq during different time periods (night, day, weekday, weekend), Ldn (day-night noise), and measures of intermittent noise defined as the ratio of peak levels to median and background levels. We also examined correlations between sound pressure levels and co-located simultaneous measures of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and black carbon (BC) as well as estimates of traffic and building density around the monitoring sites. Noise levels varied widely across the 56 monitoring sites; 1-week Leq varied by 21.6 dBA (range 59.1-80.7 dBA) with the highest levels observed during the weekday, daytime hours. Indices of average noise were well correlated with each other (r > 0.83), while indices of intermittent noise were not well correlated with average noise levels (r < 0.41). One-week Leq correlated well with NO, NO2, and EC levels (r = 0.61 to 0.68) and less so with PM2.5 levels (r = 0.45). We observed associations between 1-week noise levels and traffic intensity within 100 m of the monitoring sites (r = 0.58). The high levels of noise observed in NYC often exceed recommended guidelines for outdoor and personal exposures, suggesting unhealthy levels in many locations. Associations between noise, traffic, and combustion air pollutants suggest the possibility for confounding and/or synergism in intraurban epidemiological studies of traffic-related health effects. The different spatial pattern of intermittent noise compared to average noise level may suggest different sources.

NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk.

This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report considers climate health risks, vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies in New York City's unique urban context. It updates evidence since the last health assessment in 2015 as part of NPCC2 and addresses climate health risks and vulnerabilities that have emerged as especially salient to NYC since 2015. Climate health risks from heat and flooding are emphasized. In addition, other climate-sensitive exposures harmful to human health are considered, including outdoor and indoor air pollution, including aeroallergens; insect vectors of human illness; waterborne infectious and chemical contaminants; and compounding of climate health risks with other public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence-informed strategies for reducing future climate risks to health are considered.

Spatial and temporal estimation of air pollutants in New York City: exposure assignment for use in a birth outcomes study.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiological studies have examined the associations between air pollution and birth outcomes. Regulatory air quality monitors often used in these studies, however, were spatially sparse and unable to capture relevant within-city variation in exposure during pregnancy. METHODS: This study developed two-week average exposure estimates for fine particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during pregnancy for 274,996 New York City births in 2008-2010. The two-week average exposures were constructed by first developing land use regression (LUR) models of spatial variation in annual average PM2.5 and NO2 data from 150 locations in the New York City Community Air Survey and emissions source data near monitors. The annual average concentrations from the spatial models were adjusted to account for city-wide temporal trends using time series derived from regulatory monitors. Models were developed using Year 1 data and validated using Year 2 data. Two-week average exposures were then estimated for three buffers of maternal address and were averaged into the last six weeks, the trimesters, and the entire period of gestation. We characterized temporal variation of exposure estimates, correlation between PM2.5 and NO2, and correlation of exposures across trimesters. RESULTS: The LUR models of average annual concentrations explained a substantial amount of the spatial variation (R2 = 0.79 for PM2.5 and 0.80 for NO2). In the validation, predictions of Year 2 two-week average concentrations showed strong agreement with measured concentrations (R2 = 0.83 for PM2.5 and 0.79 for NO2). PM2.5 exhibited greater temporal variation than NO2. The relative contribution of temporal vs. spatial variation in the estimated exposures varied by time window. The differing seasonal cycle of these pollutants (bi-annual for PM2.5 and annual for NO2) resulted in different patterns of correlations in the estimated exposures across trimesters. The three levels of spatial buffer did not make a substantive difference in estimated exposures. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of spatially resolved monitoring data, LUR models and temporal adjustment using regulatory monitoring data yielded exposure estimates for PM2.5 and NO2 that performed well in validation tests. The interaction between seasonality of air pollution and exposure intervals during pregnancy needs to be considered in future studies.

National Particle Component Toxicity (NPACT) Initiative: integrated epidemiologic and toxicologic studies of the health effects of particulate matter components.

Particulate matter (PM*), an ambient air criteria pollutant, is a complex mixture of chemical components; particle sizes range from nanometer-sized molecular clusters to dust particles that are too large to be aspirated into the lungs. Although particle composition is believed to affect health risks from PM exposure, our current health-based air quality standards for PM are limited to (1) the mass concentrations of PM2.5 (particles 2.5 microm or smaller in aerodynamic diameter), which are largely attributable to combustion products; and (2) PM10 (10 microm or smaller), which includes larger-sized mechanically generated dusts. Both of these particle size fractions are regulated under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and both have been associated with excess mortality and morbidity. We conducted four studies as part of HEI's integrated National Particle Component Toxicity (NPACT) Initiative research program. Since 1999, the Chemical Speciation Network (CSN), managed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S; EPA), has routinely gathered air monitoring data every third or sixth day for the concentrations of numerous components of PM2.5. Data from the CSN enabled us to conduct a limited time-series epidemiologic study of short-term morbidity and mortality (Ito study); and a study of the associations between long-term average pollutant concentrations and annual mortality (Thurston study). Both have illuminated the roles of PM2.5 chemical components and source-related mixtures as potentially causal agents. We also conducted a series of 6-month subchronic inhalation exposure studies (6 hours/day, 5 days/week) of PM2.5 concentrated (nominally) 10 x from ambient air (CAPs) with apolipoprotein E-deficient (ApoE(-/-)) mice (a mouse model of atherosclerosis) (Chen study). The CAPs studies were conducted in five different U.S. airsheds; we measured the daily mass concentrations of PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and 16 elemental components in order to identify their sources and their roles in eliciting both short- and long-term health-related responses. In addition, from the same five air-sheds we collected samples of coarse (PM10-2.5), fine (PM2.5-0.2), and ultrafine (PM0.2) particles. Aliquots of these samples were administered to cells in vitro and to mouse lungs in vivo (by aspiration) in order to determine their comparative acute effects (Gordon Study). The results of these four complementary studies, and the overall integrative analyses, provide a basis for guiding future research and for helping to determine more targeted emission controls for the PM components most hazardous to acute and chronic health. Application of the knowledge gained in this work may therefore contribute to an optimization of the public health benefits of future PM emission controls. The design of each NPACT study conducted at NYU was guided by our scientific hypotheses, which were based on our reviews of the background literature and our experience in conducting studies of associations between ambient PM and health-related responses. These hypotheses guided the development and conduct of the four studies. Hypothesis 1. Coarse, fine, and ultrafine PM are each capable of producing acute health effects of public health concern, but the effects may differ according to particle size and composition. (Applies to all studies.) Hypothesis 2. Long-term PM2.5 exposures are closely associated with chronic health effects. (Applies to studies 1 and 4.) Hypothesis 3. The source-apportionment techniques that we have developed and refined in recent years provide a useful basis for identifying major categories of sources of PM in ambient air and specific chemical components that have the greatest impacts on a variety of acute and chronic health effects. (Applies to all studies.) Hypothesis 4. The health effects due to ambient PM exposures can best be seen in sensitive subgroups within overall human populations and in animal models of such populations. (Applies to studies 1, 3, and 4.) Overall, the studies have demonstrated that the toxicity of PM is driven by a complex interaction of particle size range, geographic location, source category, and season. These findings suggest that the components of PM--associated with certain categories of sources--are responsible for the observed adverse health effects. Most importantly, the responsible components and source categories vary with the health-related endpoints being assessed. Across all studies, fossil-fuel combustion source categories were most consistently associated with both short- and long-term adverse effects of PM2.5 exposure. The components that originate from the Residual Oil Combustion and Traffic source categories were most closely associated with short-term effects; and components from the Coal Combustion category were more closely associated with long-term effects.

Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

Long-term ozone exposure and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have linked elevations in tropospheric ozone to adverse health outcomes, the effect of long-term exposure to ozone on air pollution-related mortality remains uncertain. We examined the potential contribution of exposure to ozone to the risk of death from cardiopulmonary causes and specifically to death from respiratory causes. METHODS: Data from the study cohort of the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II were correlated with air-pollution data from 96 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. Data were analyzed from 448,850 subjects, with 118,777 deaths in an 18-year follow-up period. Data on daily maximum ozone concentrations were obtained from April 1 to September 30 for the years 1977 through 2000. Data on concentrations of fine particulate matter (particles that are < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter [PM(2.5)]) were obtained for the years 1999 and 2000. Associations between ozone concentrations and the risk of death were evaluated with the use of standard and multilevel Cox regression models. RESULTS: In single-pollutant models, increased concentrations of either PM(2.5) or ozone were significantly associated with an increased risk of death from cardiopulmonary causes. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5) was associated with the risk of death from cardiovascular causes, whereas ozone was associated with the risk of death from respiratory causes. The estimated relative risk of death from respiratory causes that was associated with an increment in ozone concentration of 10 ppb was 1.040 (95% confidence interval, 1.010 to 1.067). The association of ozone with the risk of death from respiratory causes was insensitive to adjustment for confounders and to the type of statistical model used. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study, we were not able to detect an effect of ozone on the risk of death from cardiovascular causes when the concentration of PM(2.5) was taken into account. We did, however, demonstrate a significant increase in the risk of death from respiratory causes in association with an increase in ozone concentration.

Spatial variability in levels of benzene, formaldehyde, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes in New York City: a land-use regression study.

BACKGROUND: Hazardous air pollutant exposures are common in urban areas contributing to increased risk of cancer and other adverse health outcomes. While recent analyses indicate that New York City residents experience significantly higher cancer risks attributable to hazardous air pollutant exposures than the United States as a whole, limited data exist to assess intra-urban variability in air toxics exposures. METHODS: To assess intra-urban spatial variability in exposures to common hazardous air pollutants, street-level air sampling for volatile organic compounds and aldehydes was conducted at 70 sites throughout New York City during the spring of 2011. Land-use regression models were developed using a subset of 59 sites and validated against the remaining 11 sites to describe the relationship between concentrations of benzene, total BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) and formaldehyde to indicators of local sources, adjusting for temporal variation. RESULTS: Total BTEX levels exhibited the most spatial variability, followed by benzene and formaldehyde (coefficient of variation of temporally adjusted measurements of 0.57, 0.35, 0.22, respectively). Total roadway length within 100 m, traffic signal density within 400 m of monitoring sites, and an indicator of temporal variation explained 65% of the total variability in benzene while 70% of the total variability in BTEX was accounted for by traffic signal density within 450 m, density of permitted solvent-use industries within 500 m, and an indicator of temporal variation. Measures of temporal variation, traffic signal density within 400 m, road length within 100 m, and interior building area within 100 m (indicator of heating fuel combustion) predicted 83% of the total variability of formaldehyde. The models built with the modeling subset were found to predict concentrations well, predicting 62% to 68% of monitored values at validation sites. CONCLUSIONS: Traffic and point source emissions cause substantial variation in street-level exposures to common toxic volatile organic compounds in New York City. Land-use regression models were successfully developed for benzene, formaldehyde, and total BTEX using spatial indicators of on-road vehicle emissions and emissions from stationary sources. These estimates will improve the understanding of health effects of individual pollutants in complex urban pollutant mixtures and inform local air quality improvement efforts that reduce disparities in exposure.