Predicting liver-related events in NAFLD: A predictive model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Management of NAFLD involves noninvasive prediction of fibrosis, which is a surrogate for patient outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a model predictive of liver-related events (LREs) of decompensation and/or HCC and compare its accuracy with fibrosis models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with NAFLD from Australia and Spain who were followed for up to 28 years formed derivation (n = 584) and validation (n = 477) cohorts. Competing risk regression and information criteria were used for model development. Accuracy was compared with fibrosis models using time-dependent AUC analysis. During follow-up, LREs occurred in 52 (9%) and 11 (2.3%) patients in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, type 2 diabetes, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of LRE and were combined into a model [NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)]. The NOS model calibrated well [calibration slope, 0.99 (derivation), 0.98 (validation)] with excellent overall performance [integrated Brier score, 0.07 (derivation) and 0.01 (validation)]. A cutoff ≥1.3 identified subjects at a higher risk of LRE, (sub-HR 24.6, p < 0.001, 5-year cumulative incidence 38% vs 1.0%, respectively). The predictive accuracy at 5 and 10 years was excellent in both derivation (time-dependent AUC,0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and validation cohorts (time-dependent AUC,0.80 and 0.82, respectively). The NOS was more accurate than the fibrosis-4 or NAFLD fibrosis score for predicting LREs at 5 and 10 years ( p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The NOS model consists of readily available measures and has greater accuracy in predicting outcomes in patients with NAFLD than existing fibrosis models.

Impact of Share 35 liver transplantation allocation in Australia and New Zealand.

Patients with high model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores waiting for liver transplantation in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) have had limited access to deceased donor livers and therefore binational sharing of livers, for patients with a MELD score ≥35 was introduced in February 2016. Waiting list mortality, post-transplant outcomes and intention-to-treat survival were compared between patients whose MELD score reached 35 on the waiting list between October 2013 and April 2015 (Pre-Share 35 group, n = 23) and patients who were Share 35 listed between February 2016 and May 2022 (Share 35 group, n = 112). There was significantly reduced waiting list mortality in share 35 listed patients in comparison to the pre-Share 35 group (11.7% vs. 52.2%, OR .120 95% CI .044-.328, P < .001). Post-transplant patient and graft survival were not significantly different between the groups (5-year patient survival 82% vs. 84%, P = .991, 5-year graft survival 82% vs. 76%, P = .543). Intention-to-treat survival was superior in the Share 35 group (HR .302, 95% CI .149-.614, P < .001). Introduction of Share 35 in ANZ resulted in a 78% risk reduction in waiting list mortality, equivalent post-transplant survival and an improvement in intention-to-treat survival.

Comparative Accuracy of Clinical Fibrosis Markers, Hepascore and Fibroscan® to Detect Advanced Fibrosis in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive tests are widely used to diagnose fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), however, the optimal method remains unclear. We compared the accuracy of simple serum models, a serum model incorporating direct measures of fibrogenesis (Hepascore), and Fibroscan®, for detecting fibrosis in NAFLD. METHODS: NAFLD patients undergoing liver biopsy were evaluated with Hepascore, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), FIB-4 and AST-platelet ratio index (APRI), with a subset (n = 131) undergoing Fibroscan®. Fibrosis on liver biopsy was categorized as advanced (F3-4) or cirrhosis (F4). Accuracy was determined by area under receiving operating characteristic curves (AUC). Indeterminate ranges were calculated using published cut-offs. RESULTS: In 271 NAFLD patients, 83 (31%) had F3-4 and 47 (17%) cirrhosis. 6/131 (4%) had an unreliable Fibroscan®. For the detection of advanced fibrosis, the accuracy of Hepascore (AUC 0.88) was higher than FIB-4 (0.73), NFS (0.72) and APRI (0.69) (p < 0.001 for all). Hepascore had similar accuracy to Fibroscan® (0.80) overall, but higher accuracy in obese individuals (0.91 vs 0.80, p = 0.001). Hepascore more accurately identified patients with cirrhosis than APRI (AUC 0.85 vs 0.71, p = 0.01) and NFS (AUC 0.73, p = 0.01) but performed similar to FIB-4 and Fibroscan®. For the determination of F3-4, the proportion of patients in indeterminate area was lower for Hepascore (4.8%), compared to FIB-4 (42%), NFS (36%) and APRI (44%) (p < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Hepascore has greater accuracy and a lower indeterminate range than simple serum fibrosis tests for advanced fibrosis in NAFLD, and greater accuracy than Fibroscan® in obese individuals.

Serum Fibrosis Tests Guide Prognosis in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease Patients Referred From Primary Care.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is managed predominately in primary care, however, there is uncertainty regarding how to best identify patients for specialist referral. We examined the accuracy of noninvasive tests as screening tools for the prediction of outcomes in MAFLD patients referred from primary care. METHODS: Patients with MAFLD referred by primary care for specialist review to Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital (cohort 1, n = 626) or tertiary centers within Western Australia (cohort 2, n = 246) were examined. Hepascore, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio, Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score performed at baseline were examined for their accuracy in predicting liver-related death (LRD), decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Outcomes were collected from hospital records and data linkage. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 5.0 years (range, 0.1-13.0 y) and 3.8 years (range, 0.1-10.0 y) in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. In both cohorts, Hepascore and FIB-4 had the highest area under the curve for the prediction of LRD (0.90-0.95 and 0.83-0.94, respectively), decompensation (0.86-0.91 and 0.86-0.87, respectively), and hepatocellular carcinoma (0.75-0.90 and 0.67-0.85, respectively). The sensitivity and negative predictive values were high (>90%) for Hepascore (cut-off value, 0.60), FIB-4 (cut-off value, 1.30), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (cut-off value, -1.455) for all outcomes in cohort 1, and for predicting LRD in cohort 2. Hepascore had the highest specificity, classified the greatest proportion of patients as low risk, and was favored by decision curve analysis as providing the greatest net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Serum noninvasive tests accurately stratify risk of liver-related outcomes in MAFLD patients and can be used as a screening tool for patients referred for specialist review by primary care.

ABIDE: An Accurate Predictive Model of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver-Related Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly important cause of liver cirrhosis and subsequent complications. We retrospectively developed and validated a model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis and compared this with currently available models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Baseline variables from an international cohort of 299 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with compensated cirrhosis were examined to construct a model using competing risk multivariate regression and Akaike/Bayesian information criteria. Validation was performed in 244 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD cirrhosis from the United States. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years (range 2.4-14.1) and 5.4 years (range 1.5-13.8), hepatic decompensation occurred in 81 and 132 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation (Aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, type 2 Diabetes, and Esophageal varices) were combined into the ABIDE model. Patients with a score ≥4.1 compared with those with a score <4.1 had a higher risk of decompensation (subhazard ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-11.2; P < 0.001), a greater 5-year cumulative incidence (37% vs. 6%, P < 0.001), and shorter mean duration to decompensation (3.8 vs 6.7 years, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the ABIDE model at 5 years was good in the derivation (tAUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) and validation cohorts (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81) and was significantly more accurate than the NFS (0.72), FIB-4 (0.74), MELD (0.69), CTP (0.72), and ALBI-FIB-4 (0.73) (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated cirrhosis, ABIDE, a predictive model of routine clinical measures, predicts future hepatic decompensation.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Serum Biomarker Test for Risk-Stratified Liver Ultrasound Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: Risk-stratified ultrasound screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), informed by a serum biomarker test, enables resources to be targeted to patients at the highest risk of developing cancer. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening for HCC in the Australian healthcare system. METHODS: A Markov cohort model was constructed to test 3 scenarios for patients with compensated cirrhosis: (1) risk-stratified screening for high-risk patients, (2) all-inclusive screening, and (3) no formal screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to determine the impact of uncertainty. Scenario analyses were used to assess cost-effectiveness in Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and to determine the impact of including productivity-related costs of mortality. RESULTS: Both risk-stratified screening and all-inclusive screening programs were cost-effective compared with no formal screening, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$39 045 and A$23 090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively. All-inclusive screening had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$4453 compared with risk-stratified screening and had the highest probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of A$50 000 per QALY. Risk-stratified screening had the highest likelihood of cost-effectiveness when the WTP was between A$25 000 and A$35 000 per QALY. Cost-effectiveness results were further strengthened when applied to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cohort and when productivity costs were included. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis population-wide screening for HCC is likely to be cost-effective in Australia. Risk-stratified screening using a serum biomarker test may be cost-effective at lower WTP thresholds.

Long-term Liver-related Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Liver Diseases in Australia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease is a major health burden that produces significant liver-related morbidity and mortality. We aimed to evaluate liver-related outcomes of patients with different causes of chronic liver disease in Australia. METHODS: We collected data from 10,933 patients with chronic liver disease assessed by Hepascore (a serum fibrosis model) in Western Australia from 2004 through 2015. We obtained records of liver-related death, transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma from WA Data Linkage Unit databases. Competing risk analysis was used to calculate the cumulative risk of each clinical endpoint, and risks for clinical endpoints were compared among all causes of chronic liver disease. RESULTS: In our final cohort for analysis, 5566 patients had hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, 1989 had HBV infection, 119 were infected with HBV and HCV, 955 had alcohol-associated liver disease, 1597 had non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), 123 had alcohol-associated liver disease and metabolic risk factors, 561 had autoimmune liver disease without overlap syndrome, and 23 autoimmune overlap syndrome. Significant differences among chronic liver diseases were observed in risk of all-cause death (P < .001), liver-related death (P < .001), liver transplantation (P < .001), and decompensation (P < .001) but not hepatocellular carcinoma (P=.095). Patients with alcohol-associated liver disease had the highest 5-year cumulative risk of liver-related death (17.1%) and the second-highest 5-year cumulative risk of decompensation (29.2%). Multivariate analysis found patients with alcohol-associated liver disease had significantly higher risks of liver-related death and decompensation than patients with HCV infection with hazard ratios (HRs) of 2.39 (95% CI, 1.88-3.03) and 3.42 (95% CI, 2.74-4.27), respectively. Patients with NAFLD had a significantly lower risk of liver related death and decompensation than patients with HCV infection, with HRs of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.48-0.95) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.52-0.94) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of patients in Western Australia, we found patients with alcohol-associated liver disease to have significantly higher risk of decompensation and liver-related death than patients with HCV infection, whereas patients with NAFLD have significantly lower risks of either outcome.

Bile acids associate with specific gut microbiota, low-level alcohol consumption and liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Bile acids (BAs) are synthesized by the liver and modified by gut bacteria, and may play an intermediary role between the gut microbiome and liver in promoting fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the associations between serum and faecal BAs, gut microbiome and fibrosis in patients with and without NAFLD and examined the impact of diet and alcohol consumption on these relationships. METHODS: Adult patients (n = 122) underwent liver biopsy and BAs characterization by high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. Gut microbiome composition was analysed using next-generation 16S rRNA sequencing. Diet and alcohol intake were determined by 3-day food diary. RESULTS: Serum and faecal BA concentrations increased progressively among non-NAFLD controls (n = 55), NAFLD patients with no/mild fibrosis (F0-2, n = 58) and NAFLD with advanced fibrosis (F3/4, n = 9). Progressive increases in serum BAs were driven by primary conjugated BAs including glycocholic acid [GCA] and secondary conjugated BAs. In contrast, faecal BA increase was driven by secondary unconjugated BAs (predominately deoxycholic acid [DCA]). Serum GCA levels and faecal DCA levels correlated with the abundance of Bacteroidaceae and Lachnospiraceae, and stool secondary BAs with an unclassifiable family of the order Bacteroidales (Bacteroidales;other). These bacterial taxa were also associated with advanced fibrosis. Modest alcohol consumption was positively correlated with faecal DCA levels and relative abundance of Lachnospiracaea and Bacteroidales;other. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum and faecal BA levels are associated with advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. Specific gut bacteria link alterations in BA profiles and advanced fibrosis, and may be influenced by low-level alcohol consumption.

Outcomes for children after second liver transplantations are similar to those after first transplantations: a binational registry analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess long term graft and patient survival after donor liver retransplantation in children in Australia and New Zealand during 1986-2017; to determine the factors that influence survival. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis (registry data). SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry data for all liver retransplantations in children (under 18 years of age), 1986-2017, in all four paediatric and six adult liver transplantation centres in the two countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Graft and patient survival at one, 5, 10 and 15 years. RESULTS: 142 liver retransplantations were undertaken in children (59 during 1986-2000, 83 during 2001-2017). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that survival was significantly greater during 2001-2017 than 1986-2000 (P < 0.001). During 2001-2017, graft survival one year after retransplantation was 84%, at 5 years 75%, at 10 years 70%, and at 15 years 54%; patient survival was 89% at one year, 87% at 5 years, 87% at 10 years, and 71% at 15 years. Median time between transplantations was 0.2 years (IQR, 0.03-1.4 years) during 1986-2000, and 1.8 years (IQR, 0.1-6.8 years) during 2001-2017 (P = 0.002). The proportion of graft failures that involved split grafts was larger during 2001-2017 (35 of 83, 42%) than 1986-2000 (10 of 59, 17%). Graft type, cause of graft failure, and number of transplants did not influence survival following retransplantation. CONCLUSION: Survival for children following retransplantation is excellent. Graft survival is similar for split and whole grafts. Children on the liver waiting list requiring retransplantation should have the same access to donor grafts as children requiring a first transplant.

The MAAPE score in intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with Yttrium-90 resin microsphere radioembolization.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Yttrium-90 resin microsphere radioembolization (RE) is not recommended for routine use in intermediate or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by recent guidelines. This study aims to establish pre-treatment variables which predict survival in HCC patients treated with RE to identify those who will benefit most from it, and to inform patient selection for future trials. METHODS: Single center, retrospective study of consecutive patients with HCC treated with RE from 2007 to 2018. Patients included if undergoing their first RE treatment for intermediate or advanced HCC; a Child-Pugh score of B7 or less; and a performance status of 1 or less. Multivariable Cox regression identified variables that were significantly associated with survival. A predictive score was developed based upon coefficients from the fitted Cox regression model, and cubic spline regression was used to identify prognostic groups. RESULTS: One hundred thirteen patients with intermediate (53.1%) and advanced HCC (45.1%) followed for a median of 13.2 months were included. Variables associated with superior survival used to derive the MAAPE score were lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (≤ 7), lower Alpha-fetoprotein (≤ 150 IU/L), higher serum Albumin (> 37 g/L), absence of Portal vein tumor thrombus, and better performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group = 0). Three survival prognostic groups were identified: good (median overall survival 25.0 months), average (15.3 months), and poor (6.3 months) (overall log-rank test, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The MAAPE score accurately identifies HCC patients in whom RE is safe and effective. This will allow for optimal patient selection for future trials of RE versus systemic therapy.

Baseline and Post-treatment 18F-Fluorocholine PET/CT Predicts Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Locoregional Therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: 18F-fluorocholine positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FCH PET/CT) is an emerging functional imaging technique in the diagnosis and management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a pre- and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT to predict prognosis and treatment response in early-stage HCC. METHODS: Patients with early- or intermediate-stage HCC planned for locoregional therapy were prospectively enrolled. Baseline demographic and tumor information was collected and baseline and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT performed. Maximum standardized uptake values (SUVmax) were determined for each HCC lesion, and the difference between baseline and post-treatment SUVmax values were compared with progression-free survival outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 29 patients with 39 confirmed HCC lesions were enrolled from a single clinical center. Patients were mostly men (89.7%) with hepatitis C or alcohol-related cirrhosis (65.5%) and early-stage disease (89.7%). Per-patient and per-lesion sensitivity of 18F-FCH PET/CT was 72.4% and 59.0%, respectively. A baseline SUVmax < 13 was associated with a superior median progression-free survival compared with an SUVmax of > 13 (17.7 vs. 5.1 months; p = 0.006). A > 45% decrease in SUVmax between baseline and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT ("responders") was associated with a superior mean progression-free survival than a percentage decrease of < 45% ("non-responders," 36.1 vs. 11.6 months; p = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT predicts outcomes in early-stage HCC undergoing locoregional therapy. This technique may identify patients with an objective response post-locoregional therapy who would benefit from further therapy.

Increasing Incidence of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis as an Indication for Liver Transplantation in Australia and New Zealand.

The worldwide increase in obesity and diabetes has led to predictions that nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will become the leading indication for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Data supporting this prediction from outside the United States are limited. Thus, we aimed to determine trends in the frequency of NASH among adults listed and undergoing OLT in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) from 1994 to 2017. Data from the ANZ Liver Transplant Registry were analyzed with patients listed for fulminant liver failure, retransplantation, or multivisceral transplants excluded. Nonparametric trend, Spearman rank correlation, and regression analysis were used to assess trends in etiologies of liver disease over time. Of 5016 patient wait-list registrants, a total of 3470 received an OLT. The percentage of patients with NASH activated for OLT increased significantly from 2.0% in 2003 to 10.9% in 2017 (trend analyses; P < 0.001). In 2017, NASH was the third leading cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) among wait-list registrants behind chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV; 29.5%) and alcohol (16.1%). Similarly, significant increases over time in the percentage of patients undergoing OLT were observed for HCV and NASH (all trend analyses; P < 0.001) but with significant reductions in primary sclerosing cholangitis and cryptogenic cirrhosis (both P < 0.05). By 2017, NASH was the third leading cause of liver disease among patients undergoing OLT (12.4%) and behind chronic HCV (30.2%) and alcohol (18.2%). NASH also became the third most frequent etiology of CLD in patients transplanted (13.8%) with concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma by 2017. In conclusion, NASH is increasing as a primary etiology of liver disease requiring listing and liver transplantation in ANZ.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in Australia 1982-2014: Increasing incidence and improving survival.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a paucity of accurate and current data on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) trends in incidence and survival in developed countries. We performed an Australia-wide assessment of HCC epidemiology across a 33-year time span aiming to accurately describe changes in incidence and survival. METHODS: Cases of HCC from 1982 to 2014 were identified via the Australian Cancer Database (ACD). Trends in incidence rates were explored using piecewise linear regression. Survival was compared by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and 1-, 3- and 5-year survival probabilities by year of diagnosis. RESULTS: Age-adjusted HCC incidence rate increased from 1.38 per 100 000 (95% CI: 1.34-1.43) in 1982 to 4.96 per 100 000 (95% CI: 4.89-5.03, P < 0.001) in 2014 with an average annual percentage increase of 4.46% (95% CI: 4.24%-4.69%). The highest incidence rate in 2014 was in those aged 75-79 (24.31 per 100 000; 95% CI: 19.50-29.12). Almost 80% of cases across the period were men who had significantly higher age-adjusted incidence rates in 2014 than women (8.55 per 100 000 [95% CI: 8.42-8.68] vs 1.65 per 100 000 [95% CI: 1.60-1.70]; P < 0.001). A hepatitis C (HCV) birth cohort effect was identified and associated with rapid increases in HCC incidence when members of the cohort aged and entered into age groups 45-49, 50-54 and 55-59. Median survival increased from 2.10 months (95% CI: 1.57-2.62 months) in those diagnosed between 1982 and 1984 to 12.07 months (95% CI: 11.17-12.97 months) when diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: An Australia-wide analysis of HCC epidemiological trends across three decades shows significant and consistent increases in both incidence and survival. LAY SUMMARY: There has been a significant increase in hepatocellular cancer (HCC) reported in Australia over the last three decades without evidence of slowing. Across the same time period, a significant improvement in survival has been identified with the average life expectancy after diagnosis now one year. This research lays the foundation for important public health service delivery.

Type and Pattern of Alcohol Consumption is Associated With Liver Fibrosis in Patients With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: It is unclear whether low levels of alcohol are harmful in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to determine whether quantity, binge pattern consumption, or type of alcohol was associated with liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: Previous and current alcohol consumption was assessed in NAFLD patients undergoing liver biopsy. All subjects currently consumed <210 g per week (male) or <140 g per week (female). Binge consumption was defined as ≥4 standard drinks (female) or ≥5 standard drinks (male) in one sitting. Liver biopsies were scored according to the NASH CRN system with F3/4 fibrosis defined as advanced. RESULTS: Among 187 patients (24% with advanced fibrosis), the median weekly alcohol consumption was 20 (2.3-60) g over an average of 18 years. Modest consumption (1-70 g per week) was associated with lower mean fibrosis stage compared to lifetime abstainers (p < 0.05) and a decreased risk of advanced fibrosis (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.14-0.78, p = 0.01). The association with reduced fibrosis was not seen in subjects drinking in a binge-type fashion. Exclusive wine drinkers but not exclusive beer drinkers, had lower mean fibrosis stage and lower odds of advanced fibrosis (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.06-0.69, p = 0.01), compared to lifetime abstinent subjects. No interaction between gender and alcohol quantity, type, or binge consumption on fibrosis was observed. DISCUSSION: Modest (1-70 g per week) alcohol consumption, particularly wine in a non-binge pattern, is associated with lower fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. Prospective longitudinal studies into fibrosis progression, cardiovascular outcomes, and mortality are required before clinical recommendations can be made.

Diabetes impacts prediction of cirrhosis and prognosis by non-invasive fibrosis models in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients with diabetes are at increased risk of cirrhosis and liver-related death, and thus accurate fibrosis assessment in these patients is important. We examined the ability of non-invasive fibrosis models to determine cirrhosis and outcomes in NAFLD patients with and without diabetes. METHODS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease patients diagnosed between 2006 and 2015 had Hepascore, NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), APRI and FIB-4 scores calculated at baseline and were followed up for outcomes of overall and liver-related mortality/liver transplantation, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Model accuracy was determined by Harrell's C-index and by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: A total of 284 patients (53% diabetic, 15% cirrhotic) were followed up for a median of 51.4 months, (range 6.1-146). During follow-up, diabetic patients had a greater risk of liver-related death/transplantation, HR 3.4 (95% CI 1.2-9.1) decompensation, HR 4.7 (95% CI 2.0-11.3) and HCC, HR 2.9 (95% CI 1.2-7.3). Among 241 subjects with a baseline liver biopsy, the accuracy of Hepascore, APRI and FIB-4 for predicting cirrhosis was lower amongst diabetics compared to non-diabetics (P < .005 for all). Model accuracy apart from Hepascore, was also significantly lower for predicting liver death/transplantation in patients with diabetes. No patient with a low fibrosis score and without diabetes developed liver decompensation or HCC, whereas up to 21% of diabetic patients with a low fibrosis score developed liver decompensation and up to 27% developed HCC at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Non-invasive scoring systems are less accurate at predicting cirrhosis and liver-related outcomes in patients with NAFLD and diabetes.

Rate of Nonsurveillance and Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma at Diagnosis in Chronic Liver Disease.

AIMS: Ultrasound surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended in cirrhotic patients to allow early diagnosis. This study investigated risk factors for nonsurveillance and advanced HCC at diagnosis and their effect on survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred seventy HCC patients were included. Clinical data were collected from hospital databases. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-eight (47.1%) patients had 6-monthly ultrasound surveillance before HCC diagnosis. Ninety-two (34.1%) patients had advanced HCC (multifocal or total diameter ≥6 cm) at diagnosis. The nonsurveillance rate was significantly higher in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (79%) compared with other causes of chronic liver disease (31.6% to 58.1%, P<0.001). Nonrecognition of NAFLD was significantly higher (68.4%) compared with other causes of chronic liver disease (0% to 23.2%, P<0.001). In NAFLD HCC patients, 23.7% were noncirrhotic and smoking was significantly associated HCC in this noncirrhotic group (P=0.041). No-surveillance for HCC was significantly associated with advanced HCC at diagnosis with an odds ratio (OR) of 8.1. Compared with nondrinkers, heavy alcohol consumption was significantly associated with advanced HCC (OR=7.6). In the surveillance group, diagnosis using computed tomography rather than magnetic resonance imaging was significantly associated with advanced HCC (OR=3.36). Patients without HCC surveillance had a significantly shorter median survival compared with those who had HCC surveillance (27.4 vs. 52.0 mo, P=0.0006). CONCLUSIONS: The lack of HCC surveillance is associated with advanced HCC at diagnosis and decreased survival. NAFLD patients with HCC have a significantly lower rate of diagnosis of chronic liver disease and HCC surveillance compared with the other causes of chronic liver disease.

The Prognostic Ability of Major Hepatocellular Carcinoma Staging Systems Is Improved by Including a Treatment Variable.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There has been significant debate regarding which hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging system is best able to predict survival. We hypothesized that the prognostic ability of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) systems would be improved with the addition of an explicit treatment variable. METHODS: We performed an analysis of a prospectively enrolled cohort of 292 patients undergoing 532 treatment episodes for HCC from 2006 to 2014. BCLC, standard nine-stage HKLC (HKLC9), and modified five-stage HKLC (HKLC5) for each treatment episode were assessed. Overall survival and time to disease progression were calculated for the initial treatment, re-treatment, and overall treatment cohorts. We compared the performance of various prognostic models including staging system alone, treatment alone, and staging system plus treatment using the corrected Akaike information criterion and Harrell's C statistic. RESULTS: The BCLC, HKLC5, and HKLC9 systems were significant predictors of survival and time to progression for all treatment cohorts (log rank test, p < 0.001). The addition of a treatment variable significantly improved (p < 0.01) the prognostic ability of the survival and time to progression models compared with those containing only the BCLC or HKLC stage across all treatment cohorts other than survival in re-treatment for BCLC (p = 0.094). CONCLUSIONS: Adding a treatment variable to major HCC staging systems improves their ability to predict survival and time to progression in initial treatment, re-treatment, and overall.

Prevalence of restless legs syndrome in a tertiary cohort of ambulant patients with chronic liver disease.

A cross-sectional survey of 188 ambulant patients with chronic liver disease was performed to determine the prevalence of restless legs syndrome (RLS) using a validated patient completed questionnaire. Patient responses were verified by standardised telephone interview. RLS was identified in 64 (34%) patients. Significantly, more patients with cirrhosis had RLS than patients without RLS (43.9 vs 23.3%, P = 0.003, respectively). Cirrhotic patients with a history of hepatic encephalopathy were also more likely to have RLS than patients without hepatic encephalopathy (odds ratio = 4.33, 95% confidence interval = 1.40-13.37, P = 0.011). Patients with chronic liver disease may be at risk for RLS; early detection and treatment may improve patient outcomes.