Dynamic forecasting of individual cow milk yield in automatic milking systems.

Accurate forecasting of dairy cow milk yield is useful to dairy farmers, both in relation to financial planning and for detection of deviating yield patterns, which can be an indicator of mastitis and other diseases. In this study we developed a dynamic linear model (DLM) designed to forecast milk yields of individual cows per milking, as they are milked in milking robots. The DLM implements a Wood's function to account for the expected total daily milk yield. It further implements a second-degree polynomial function to account for the effect of the time intervals between milkings on the proportion of the expected total daily milk yield. By combining these 2 functions in a dynamic framework, the DLM was able to continuously forecast the amount of milk to be produced in a given milking. Data from 169,774 milkings on 5 different farms in 2 different countries were used in this study. A separate farm-specific implementation of the DLM was made for each of the 5 farms. To determine which factors would influence the forecast accuracy, the standardized forecast errors of the DLM were described with a linear mixed effects model (lme). This lme included lactation stage (early, middle, or late), somatic cell count (SCC) level (nonelevated or elevated), and whether or not the proper farm-specific version of the DLM was used. The standardized forecast errors of the DLM were only affected by SCC level and interactions between SCC level and lactation stage. Therefore, we concluded that the implementation of Wood's function combined with a second-degree polynomial is useful for dynamic modeling of milk yield in milking robots, and that this model has potential to be used as part of a mastitis detection system.

Bayesian integration of sensor information and a multivariate dynamic linear model for prediction of dairy cow mastitis.

Rapid detection of dairy cow mastitis is important so corrective action can be taken as soon as possible. Automatically collected sensor data used to monitor the performance and the health state of the cow could be useful for rapid detection of mastitis while reducing the labor needs for monitoring. The state of the art in combining sensor data to predict clinical mastitis still does not perform well enough to be applied in practice. Our objective was to combine a multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) with a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC) in a novel method using sensor and nonsensor data to detect clinical cases of mastitis. We also evaluated reductions in the number of sensors for detecting mastitis. With the DLM, we co-modeled 7 sources of sensor data (milk yield, fat, protein, lactose, conductivity, blood, body weight) collected at each milking for individual cows to produce one-step-ahead forecasts for each sensor. The observations were subsequently categorized according to the errors of the forecasted values and the estimated forecast variance. The categorized sensor data were combined with other data pertaining to the cow (week in milk, parity, mastitis history, somatic cell count category, and season) using Bayes' theorem, which produced a combined probability of the cow having clinical mastitis. If this probability was above a set threshold, the cow was classified as mastitis positive. To illustrate the performance of our method, we used sensor data from 1,003,207 milkings from the University of Florida Dairy Unit collected from 2008 to 2014. Of these, 2,907 milkings were associated with recorded cases of clinical mastitis. Using the DLM/NBC method, we reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, with a specificity of 0.81 when the sensitivity was set at 0.80. Specificities with omissions of sensor data ranged from 0.58 to 0.81. These results are comparable to other studies, but differences in data quality, definitions of clinical mastitis, and time windows make comparisons across studies difficult. We found the DLM/NBC method to be a flexible method for combining multiple sensor and nonsensor data sources to predict clinical mastitis and accommodate missing observations. Further research is needed before practical implementation is possible. In particular, the performance of our method needs to be improved in the first 2 wk of lactation. The DLM method produces forecasts that are based on continuously estimated multivariate normal distributions, which makes forecasts and forecast errors easy to interpret, and new sensors can easily be added.

The DECIDE project: from surveillance data to decision-support for farmers and veterinarians.

Farmers, veterinarians and other animal health managers in the livestock sector are currently missing sufficient information on prevalence and burden of contagious endemic animal diseases. They need adequate tools for risk assessment and prioritization of control measures for these diseases. The DECIDE project develops data-driven decision-support tools, which present (i) robust and early signals of disease emergence and options for diagnostic confirmation; and (ii) options for controlling the disease along with their implications in terms of disease spread, economic burden and animal welfare. DECIDE focuses on respiratory and gastro-intestinal syndromes in the three most important terrestrial livestock species (pigs, poultry, cattle) and on reduced growth and mortality in two of the most important aquaculture species (salmon and trout). For each of these, we (i) identify the stakeholder needs; (ii) determine the burden of disease and costs of control measures; (iii) develop data sharing frameworks based on federated data access and meta-information sharing; (iv) build multivariate and multi-level models for creating early warning systems; and (v) rank interventions based on multiple criteria. Together, all of this forms decision-support tools to be integrated in existing farm management systems wherever possible and to be evaluated in several pilot implementations in farms across Europe. The results of DECIDE lead to improved use of surveillance data and evidence-based decisions on disease control. Improved disease control is essential for a sustainable food chain in Europe with increased animal health and welfare and that protects human health.

Bayesian prediction of bacterial growth temperature range based on genome sequences.

BACKGROUND: The preferred habitat of a given bacterium can provide a hint of which types of enzymes of potential industrial interest it might produce. These might include enzymes that are stable and active at very high or very low temperatures. Being able to accurately predict this based on a genomic sequence, would thus allow for an efficient and targeted search for production organisms, reducing the need for culturing experiments. RESULTS: This study found a total of 40 protein families useful for distinction between three thermophilicity classes (thermophiles, mesophiles and psychrophiles). The predictive performance of these protein families were compared to those of 87 basic sequence features (relative use of amino acids and codons, genomic and 16S rDNA AT content and genome size). When using naïve Bayesian inference, it was possible to correctly predict the optimal temperature range with a Matthews correlation coefficient of up to 0.68. The best predictive performance was always achieved by including protein families as well as structural features, compared to either of these alone. A dedicated computer program was created to perform these predictions. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that protein families associated with specific thermophilicity classes can provide effective input data for thermophilicity prediction, and that the naïve Bayesian approach is effective for such a task. The program created for this study is able to efficiently distinguish between thermophilic, mesophilic and psychrophilic adapted bacterial genomes.

Evaluation of reticuloruminal pH measurements from individual cattle: Sampling strategies for the assessment of herd status.

The application of pH observations to clinical practice in dairy cattle is based on criteria derived primarily from single time-point observations more than 20 years ago. The aims of this study were to evaluate these criteria using data collected using continuous recording methods; to make recommendations that might improve their interpretation; and to determine the relationship between the number of devices deployed in a herd and the accuracy of the resulting estimate of the herd-mean reticuloruminal pH. The study made use of 815,475 observations of reticuloruminal pH values obtained from 75 cattle in three herds (one beef and two twice-daily milking herds) to assess sampling strategies for the diagnosis of sub-acute rumen acidosis (SARA), and to evaluate the ability of different numbers of bolus devices to accurately estimate the true herd-mean reticuloruminal pH value at any time. The traditional criteria for SARA provide low diagnostic utility, the probability of detection of animals with pH values below specified thresholds being affected by a strong effect of time of day and herd. The analysis suggests that regardless of time of feeding, sampling should be carried out in the late afternoon or evening to obtain a reasonable probability of detection of animals with pH values below the threshold level. The among-cow variation varied strongly between herds, but for a typical herd, if using reticuloruminal pH boluses to detect a predisposition to fermentation disorders while feeding a diet that is high in rapidly fermentable carbohydrates, it is recommended to use a minimum of nine boluses.

Bayesian prediction of microbial oxygen requirement.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of the optimal habitat conditions for a given bacterium, based on genome sequence alone would be of value for scientific as well as industrial purposes. One example of such a habitat adaptation is the requirement for oxygen. In spite of good genome data availability, there have been only a few prediction attempts of bacterial oxygen requirements, using genome sequences. Here, we describe a method for distinguishing aerobic, anaerobic and facultative anaerobic bacteria, based on genome sequence-derived input, using naive Bayesian inference. In contrast, other studies found in literature only demonstrate the ability to distinguish two classes at a time. RESULTS: The results shown in the present study are as good as or better than comparable methods previously described in the scientific literature, with an arguably simpler method, when results are directly compared. This method further compares the performance of a single-step naive Bayesian prediction of the three included classifications, compared to a simple Bayesian network with two steps. A two-step network, distinguishing first respiring from non-respiring organisms, followed by the distinction of aerobe and facultative anaerobe organisms within the respiring group, is found to perform best. CONCLUSIONS: A simple naive Bayesian network based on the presence or absence of specific protein domains within a genome is an effective and easy way to predict bacterial habitat preferences, such as oxygen requirement.