Comparison of four prognostic scales for predicting mortality in patients with severe maternal morbidity. / Comparación de 4 escalas pronósticas para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con morbilidad materna severa.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the prognostic validity of the APACHE II-M and O-SOFA scales versus the APACHE II and SOFA to predict mortality in patients with severe maternal morbidity. DESIGN: A retrospective, longitudinal and analytical cohort study was carried out. SETTING: Medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital. PATIENTS: Pregnant or puerperal patients of any age admitted to the ICU. INTERVENTIONS: Calculation of prognostic scores upon admission. VARIABLES OF INTEREST: APACHE II, SOFA, APACHE II-M and O-SOFA scores and maternal mortality. RESULTS: A total of 141 patients were included. The majority (70.2%) were puerperal. The most frequent diagnosis was gestational hypertensive disease (50 cases). The discrimination of each prognostic model was estimated with the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC). The calibration was estimated using the mortality ratio and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The four scales discriminated between survivors and non-survivors with areas under the curve >0.85. The APACHE II-M model was the predictive model with the highest discrimination and calibration. In the Hosmer-Lemeshow regression analysis, mortality as predicted by the APACHE II and O-SOFA was significantly different from the observed mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The APACHE II-M exhibited the greatest prognostic validity in predicting maternal mortality. This difference was given by its improvement in calibration.

Comparación de 4 escalas pronósticas para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con morbilidad materna severa / Comparison of four prognostic scales for predicting mortality in patients with severe maternal morbidity

Objetivo Comparar la validez pronóstica del APACHE II-M y O-SOFA versus el APACHE II y SOFA para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con morbilidad materna severa. Diseño Estudio de cohorte, retrospectivo, longitudinal y analítico. Ámbito Unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) médico-quirúrgica de un hospital de tercer nivel. Pacientes Pacientes embarazadas o puérperas de cualquier edad ingresadas en la UCI. Intervenciones Cálculo de scores pronósticos al ingreso. Variables de interés APACHE II, SOFA, APACHE II-M, O-SOFA y mortalidad materna. Resultados Se incluyeron 141 pacientes. Noventa y nueve (70,2%) fueron puérperas. El diagnóstico más frecuente fue la enfermedad hipertensiva del embarazo (50 casos). La discriminación de cada modelo pronóstico se estimó con el área bajo la curva ROC (ABC-ROC). La calibración se estimó utilizando la razón de mortalidad y el estadístico de Hosmer-Lemeshow. Las 4 escalas discriminaron entre supervivientes y no supervivientes con áreas bajo la curva >0,85. El modelo APACHE II-M fue el modelo pronóstico con mayor discriminación y calibración. En la regresión de Hosmer-Lemeshow la predicción de mortalidad de APACHE II y O-SOFA fue significativamente diferente a las muertes observadas. Conclusiones el APACHE II-M tuvo la mayor validez pronóstica para predecir muerte materna. Esta diferencia está dada por su mejoría en la calibración. (AU)

Objective To compare the prognostic validity of the APACHE II-M and O-SOFA scales versus the APACHE II and SOFA to predict mortality in patients with severe maternal morbidity. Design A retrospective, longitudinal and analytical cohort study was carried out. Setting Medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital. Patients Pregnant or puerperal patients of any age admitted to the ICU. Interventions Calculation of prognostic scores upon admission. Variables of interest APACHE II, SOFA, APACHE II-M and O-SOFA scores and maternal mortality. Results A total of 141 patients were included. The majority (70.2%) were puerperal. The most frequent diagnosis was gestational hypertensive disease (50 cases). The discrimination of each prognostic model was estimated with the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC). The calibration was estimated using the mortality ratio and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The four scales discriminated between survivors and non-survivors with areas under the curve >0.85. The APACHE II-M model was the predictive model with the highest discrimination and calibration. In the Hosmer-Lemeshow regression analysis, mortality as predicted by the APACHE II and O-SOFA was significantly different from the observed mortality. Conclusions The APACHE II-M exhibited the greatest prognostic validity in predicting maternal mortality. This difference was given by its improvement in calibration. (AU)