RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) contribute to increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, and cost. Despite progress in understanding the risk factors, there remains a need to accurately predict the risk of CLABSIs and, in real time, prevent them from occurring. METHODS: A predictive model was developed using retrospective data from a large academic healthcare system. Models were developed with machine learning via construction of random forests using validated input variables. RESULTS: Fifteen variables accounted for the most significant effect on CLABSI prediction based on a retrospective study of 70,218 unique patient encounters between January 1, 2013, and May 31, 2016. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the best-performing model was 0.82 in production. DISCUSSION: This model has multiple applications for resource allocation for CLABSI prevention, including serving as a tool to target patients at highest risk for potentially cost-effective but otherwise time-limited interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning can be used to develop accurate models to predict the risk of CLABSI in real time prior to the development of infection.