Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with CKD may be at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, there are no ASCVD risk prediction models developed in CKD populations to inform clinical care and prevention. METHODS: We developed and validated 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models in patients with CKD that included participants without self-reported cardiovascular disease from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. ASCVD was defined as the first occurrence of adjudicated fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. Our models used clinically available variables and novel biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: Of 2604 participants (mean age 55.8 years; 52.0% male) included in the analyses, 252 had incident ASCVD within 10 years of baseline. Compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]=0.730), a model with coefficients estimated within the CRIC sample had higher discrimination (P=0.03), achieving an AUC of 0.736 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.649 to 0.826). The CRIC model developed using clinically available variables had an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI, 0.678 to 0.851). The CRIC biomarker-enriched model had an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI, 0.674 to 0.853), which was significantly higher than the clinical model (P=0.001). Both the clinical and biomarker-enriched models were well-calibrated and improved reclassification of nonevents compared with the pooled cohort equations (6.6%; 95% CI, 3.7% to 9.6% and 10.0%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 13.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed in patients with CKD, including novel kidney and cardiac biomarkers, performed better than equations developed for the general population using only traditional risk factors.

Higher net acid excretion is associated with a lower risk of kidney disease progression in patients with diabetes.

Higher diet-dependent nonvolatile acid load is associated with faster chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, but most studies have used estimated acid load or measured only components of the gold standard, net acid excretion (NAE). Here we measured NAE as the sum of urine ammonium and titratable acidity in 24-hour urines from a random subset of 980 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. In multivariable models accounting for demographics, comorbidity and kidney function, higher NAE was significantly associated with lower serum bicarbonate (0.17 mEq/l lower serum bicarbonate per 10 mEq/day higher NAE), consistent with a larger acid load. Over a median of 6 years of follow-up, higher NAE was independently associated with a significantly lower risk of the composite of end-stage renal disease or halving of estimated glomerular filtration rate among diabetics (hazard ratio 0.88 per 10 mEq/day higher NAE), but not those without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.04 per 10 mEq/day higher NAE). For comparison, we estimated the nonvolatile acid load as net endogenous acid production using self-reported food frequency questionnaires from 2848 patients and dietary urine biomarkers from 3385 patients. Higher net endogenous acid production based on biomarkers (urea nitrogen and potassium) was modestly associated with faster CKD progression consistent with prior reports, but only among those without diabetes. Results from the food frequency questionnaires were not associated with CKD progression in any group. Thus, disparate results obtained from analyses of nonvolatile acid load directly measured as NAE and estimated from diet suggest a novel hypothesis that the risk of CKD progression related to low NAE or acid load may be due to diet-independent changes in acid production in diabetes.

Proteinuria, but Not eGFR, Predicts Stroke Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease: Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic kidney disease is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, the impact of chronic kidney disease on cerebrovascular disease is less well understood. We hypothesized that renal function severity would be predictive of stroke risk, independent of other vascular risk factors. METHODS: The study population included 3939 subjects enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, a prospective observational cohort. Stroke events were reported by participants and adjudicated by 2 vascular neurologists. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare measures of baseline renal function with stroke events. Multivariable analysis was performed to adjust for key covariates. RESULTS: In 3939 subjects, 143 new stroke events (0.62 events per 100 person-years) occurred over a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. Stroke risk was increased in subjects who had worse baseline measurements of renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate and total proteinuria or albuminuria). When adjusted for variables known to influence stroke risk, total proteinuria or albuminuria, but not estimated glomerular filtration rate, were associated with an increased risk of stroke. Treatment with blockers of the renin-angiotensin system did not decrease stroke risk in individuals with albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria and albuminuria are better predictors of stroke risk in patients with chronic kidney disease than estimated glomerular filtration rate. The impact of therapies targeting proteinuria/albuminuria in individuals with chronic kidney disease on stroke prevention warrants further investigation.

Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and risk of cardiovascular disease and death in CKD: results from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is common and is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk. Currently, markers of renal tubular injury are not used routinely to describe kidney health and little is known about the risk of cardiovascular events and death associated with these biomarkers independent of glomerular filtration-based markers (such as serum creatinine or albuminuria). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study, CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,386 participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate of 20 to 70mL/min/1.73m(2) enrolled from June 2003 through August 2008. PREDICTOR: Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) concentration. OUTCOMES: Adjudicated heart failure event, ischemic atherosclerotic event (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral artery disease), and death through March 2011. MEASUREMENTS: Urine NGAL measured at baseline with a 2-step assay using chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay technology on an ARCHITECT i2000SR (Abbott Laboratories). RESULTS: There were 428 heart failure events (during 16,383 person-years of follow-up), 361 ischemic atherosclerotic events (during 16,584 person-years of follow-up), and 522 deaths (during 18,214 person-years of follow-up). In Cox regression models adjusted for estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, demographics, traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors, and cardiac medications, higher urine NGAL levels remained associated independently with ischemic atherosclerotic events (adjusted HR for the highest [>49.5ng/mL] vs lowest [≤6.9ng/mL] quintile, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.20-2.81]; HR per 0.1-unit increase in log urine NGAL, 1.012 [95% CI, 1.001-1.023]), but not heart failure events or deaths. LIMITATIONS: Urine NGAL was measured only once. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with chronic kidney disease, urine levels of NGAL, a marker of renal tubular injury, were associated independently with future ischemic atherosclerotic events, but not with heart failure events or deaths.

The role of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system genes in the progression of chronic kidney disease: findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted single-marker, gene- and pathway-based analyses to examine the association between renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) variants and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression among Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study participants. METHODS: A total of 1523 white and 1490 black subjects were genotyped for 490 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 12 RAAS genes as part of the ITMAT-Broad-CARe array. CKD progression phenotypes included decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and the occurrence of a renal disease event, defined as incident end-stage renal disease or halving of eGFR from baseline. Mixed-effects models were used to examine SNP associations with eGFR decline, while Cox proportional hazards models tested SNP associations with renal events. Gene- and pathway-based analyses were conducted using the truncated product method. All analyses were stratified by race, and a Bonferroni correction was applied to adjust for multiple testing. RESULTS: Among white and black participants, eGFR declined an average of 1.2 and 2.3 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year, respectively, while renal events occurred in a respective 11.5 and 24.9% of participants. We identified strong gene- and pathway-based associations with CKD progression. The AGT and RENBP genes were consistently associated with risk of renal events in separate analyses of white and black participants (both P < 1.00 × 10(-6)). Driven by the significant gene-based findings, the entire RAAS pathway was also associated with renal events in both groups (both P < 1.00 × 10(-6)). No single-marker associations with CKD progression were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The current study provides strong evidence for a role of the RAAS in CKD progression.

Fibroblast growth factor 23 is not associated with and does not induce arterial calcification.

Elevated fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is associated with cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease. As a potential mediating mechanism, FGF23 induces left ventricular hypertrophy; however, its role in arterial calcification is less clear. In order to study this, we quantified coronary artery and thoracic aorta calcium by computed tomography in 1501 patients from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study within a median of 376 days (interquartile range 331-420 days) of baseline. Baseline plasma FGF23 was not associated with the prevalence or severity of coronary artery calcium after multivariable adjustment. In contrast, higher serum phosphate levels were associated with prevalence and severity of coronary artery calcium, even after adjustment for FGF23. Neither FGF23 nor serum phosphate were consistently associated with thoracic aorta calcium. We could not detect mRNA expression of FGF23 or its coreceptor, klotho, in human or mouse vascular smooth muscle cells, or normal or calcified mouse aorta. Whereas elevated phosphate concentrations induced calcification in vitro, FGF23 had no effect on phosphate uptake or phosphate-induced calcification regardless of phosphate concentration or even in the presence of soluble klotho. Thus, in contrast to serum phosphate, FGF23 is not associated with arterial calcification and does not promote calcification experimentally. Hence, phosphate and FGF23 promote cardiovascular disease through distinct mechanisms.

Heart rate variability is a predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease: a report from the CRIC Study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Low heart rate variability (HRV) is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in the general population. We aimed to determine the factors associated with HRV and evaluate the association between low HRV and clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: A 10-second electrocardiogram was obtained at baseline in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. HRV was measured by the standard deviation of all R-R intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences between R-R intervals (RMSSD). RESULTS: In 3,245 CRIC participants with available baseline SDNN and RMSSD, lower HRV was associated with older age, lack of exercise, heart failure, elevated phosphorus and hemoglobin A1c, and low estimated glomerular filtration rate. After a median follow-up of 4.2 years, in fully adjusted models, lower HRV was not associated with renal [SDNN: hazard rate, HR = 0.96 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.88-1.05); RMSSD: HR = 0.97 (95% CI 0.88-1.07)] or cardiovascular outcomes [SDNN: HR = 1.02 (95% CI 0.92-1.13); RMSSD: HR = 1.00 (95% CI 0.90-1.10)]. There was a nonlinear relationship between RMSSD and all-cause mortality with increased risk with both low and high RMSSD (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of patients with CKD, multiple risk factors for renal and cardiovascular diseases were associated with lower HRV. Lower HRV was not associated with increased risk for renal or cardiovascular outcomes, but both low and high RMSSD were associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality. In conclusion, HRV measured by RMSSD may be a novel and independent risk factor for mortality in CKD patients.

Plant protein intake is associated with fibroblast growth factor 23 and serum bicarbonate levels in patients with chronic kidney disease: the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Protein from plant, as opposed to animal, sources may be preferred in chronic kidney disease (CKD) because of the lower bioavailability of phosphate and lower nonvolatile acid load. STUDY DESIGN: Observational cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2,938 participants with CKD and information on their dietary intake at the baseline visit in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study. PREDICTORS: Percentage of total protein intake from plant sources (percent plant protein) was determined by scoring individual food items using the National Cancer Institute Diet History Questionnaire (DHQ). OUTCOMES: Metabolic parameters, including serum phosphate, bicarbonate (HCO3), potassium, and albumin, plasma fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), and parathyroid hormone (PTH), and hemoglobin levels. MEASUREMENTS: We modeled the association between percent plant protein and metabolic parameters using linear regression. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, diabetes status, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, income, smoking status, total energy intake, total protein intake, 24-hour urinary sodium concentration, use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, and use of diuretics. RESULTS: Higher percent plant protein was associated with lower FGF-23 (P = .05) and higher HCO3 (P = .01) levels, but not with serum phosphate or parathyroid hormone concentrations (P = .9 and P = .5, respectively). Higher percent plant protein was not associated with higher serum potassium (P = .2), lower serum albumin (P = .2), or lower hemoglobin (P = .3) levels. The associations of percent plant protein with FGF-23 and HCO3 levels did not differ by diabetes status, sex, race, CKD stage (2/3 vs. 4/5), or total protein intake (≤0.8 g/kg/day vs. >0.8 g/kg/day; P-interaction >.10 for each). LIMITATIONS: This is a cross-sectional study; determination of percent plant protein using the Diet History Questionnaire has not been validated. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of a higher percentage of protein from plant sources may lower FGF-23 and raise HCO3 levels in patients with CKD.

Renal impairment, hypertension and plasma urotensin II.

BACKGROUND: Human urotensin II (UII) is a potent mammalian vasoconstrictor thought to be produced and cleared by the kidneys. Conflicting data exist regarding the relationship between UII concentrations, kidney function and blood pressure (BP). We measured the associations between kidney function [including end-stage renal disease (ESRD)] and levels of BP with plasma concentrations of UII. METHODS: Ninety-one subjects were enrolled. Thirty-one subjects had ESRD (undergoing haemodialysis), 30 subjects had chronic kidney disease (CKD) and 30 control subjects had no kidney disease. Plasma UII concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay. RESULTS: Mean plasma UII concentrations were highest in controls, lower in subjects with ESRD and lowest in subjects with non-ESRD CKD (P<0.0001). UII concentrations correlated negatively with serum creatinine (P=0.0012) and CKD stage, and positively with creatinine clearance (P=0.013). In ESRD subjects, plasma UII (P=0.008) increased after dialysis, while SBP (P=0.007), DBP (P=0.009), serum creatinine (P<0.0001) and serum urea nitrogen (P<0.0001) decreased. UII concentrations were lower in patients with a history of hypertension (HTN) (P=0.016). Age, race and gender did not appear to be associated with UII concentration. However, the distribution of African American race and male gender appear to be associated with increasing stages of chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a potential vasodilatory role of UII in humans with kidney disease or hypertension. The reduction in UII levels in CKD also suggests either reduced production or greater clearance, or both, of UII.

Risk factors for progression of coronary artery calcification in patients with chronic kidney disease: The CRIC study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is common among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and predicts the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined the associations of novel risk factors with CAC progression among patients with CKD. METHODS: Among 1123 CKD patients in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study, CAC was measured in Agatston units at baseline and a follow-up visit using electron beam computed tomography or multidetector computed tomography. RESULTS: Over an average 3.3-year follow-up, 109 (25.1%) participants without CAC at baseline had incident CAC and 124 (18.0%) participants with CAC at baseline had CAC progression, defined as an annual increase of ≥100 Agatston units. After adjustment for established atherosclerotic risk factors, several novel risk factors were associated with changes in CAC over follow-up. Changes in square root transformed CAC score associated with 1 SD greater level of risk factors were -0.20 (95% confidence interval, -0.31 to -0.10; p < 0.001) for estimated glomerular filtration rate, 0.14 (0.02-0.25; p = 0.02) for 24-h urine albumin, 0.25 (0.15-0.34; p < 0.001) for cystatin C, -0.17 (-0.27 to -0.07; p < 0.001) for serum calcium, 0.14 (0.03-0.24; p = 0.009) for serum phosphate, 0.24 (0.14-0.33; p < 0.001) for fibroblast growth factor-23, 0.13 (0.04-0.23; p = 0.007) for total parathyroid hormone, 0.17 (0.07-0.27; p < 0.001) for interleukin-6, and 0.12 (0.02-0.22; p = 0.02) for tumor necrosis factor-α. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced kidney function, calcium and phosphate metabolism disorders, and inflammation, independent of established CVD risk factors, may progress CAC among CKD patients.

Persistent high serum bicarbonate and the risk of heart failure in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD): A report from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Serum bicarbonate varies over time in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, and this variability may portend poor cardiovascular outcomes. The aim of this study was to conduct a time-updated longitudinal analysis to evaluate the association of serum bicarbonate with long-term clinical outcomes: heart failure, atherosclerotic events, renal events (halving of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or end-stage renal disease), and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Serum bicarbonate was measured annually, in 3586 participants with CKD, enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. Marginal structural models were created to allow for integration of all available bicarbonate measurements and proper adjustment for time-dependent confounding. During the 6 years follow-up, 512 participants developed congestive heart failure (26/1000 person-years) and 749 developed renal events (37/1000 person-years). The risk of heart failure and death was significantly higher for participants who maintained serum bicarbonate >26 mmol/L for the entire duration of follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 2.23, and HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.82, respectively) compared with participants who kept their bicarbonate 22 to 26 mmol/L, after adjusting for demographics, co-morbidities, medications including diuretics, eGFR, and proteinuria. Participants who maintained serum bicarbonate <22 mmol/L had almost a 2-fold increased risk of renal disease progression (HR 1.97; 95% CI, 1.50 to 2.57) compared with participants with bicarbonate 22 to 26 mmol/L. CONCLUSION: In this large CKD cohort, persistent serum bicarbonate >26 mmol/L was associated with increased risk of heart failure events and mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal range of serum bicarbonate in CKD to prevent adverse clinical outcomes.

Blood pressure variability of two ambulatory blood pressure monitors.

OBJECTIVE: There are no data on the evaluation of blood pressure (BP) variability comparing two ambulatory blood pressure monitoring monitors worn at the same time. Hence, this study was carried out to compare variability of BP in healthy untreated adults using two ambulatory BP monitors worn at the same time over an 8-h period. METHODS: An Accutorr device was used to measure office BP in the dominant and nondominant arms of 24 participants.Simultaneous 8-h BP and heart rate data were measured in 24 untreated adult volunteers by Mobil-O-Graph (worn for an additional 16 h after removing the Spacelabs monitor) and Spacelabs with both random (N=12) and nonrandom (N=12) assignment of each device to the dominant arm. Average real variability (ARV), SD, coefficient of variation, and variation independent of mean were calculated for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure (PP). RESULTS: Whether the Mobil-O-Graph was applied to the dominant or the nondominant arm, the ARV of mean systolic (P=0.003 nonrandomized; P=0.010 randomized) and PP (P=0.009 nonrandomized; P=0.005 randomized) remained significantly higher than the Spacelabs device, whereas the ARV of the mean arterial pressure was not significantly different. The average BP readings and ARVs for systolic blood pressure and PP obtained by the Mobil-O-Graph were considerably higher for the daytime than the night-time. CONCLUSION: Given the emerging interest in the effect of BP variability on health outcomes, the accuracy of its measurement is important. Our study raises concerns about the accuracy of pooling international ambulatory blood pressure monitoring variability data using different devices.

A comparison of two ambulatory blood pressure monitors worn at the same time.

There are limited data in the literature comparing two simultaneously worn ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring (ABPM) devices. The authors compared BPs from two monitors (Mobil-O-Graph [I.E.M., Stolberg, Germany] and Spacelabs 90207 [Spacelabs Medical, Issequah, WA]). In the nonrandomized component of the study, simultaneous 8-hour BP and heart rate data were measured by Mobil-O-Graph, consistently applied to the nondominant arm, and Spacelabs to the dominant arm on 12 untreated adults. Simultaneous 8-hour BP and heart data were obtained by the same monitors randomly assigned to a dominant or nondominant arm on 12 other untreated adults. Oscillometric BP profiles were obtained in the dominant and nondominant arms of the above 24 patients using an Accutorr (Datascope, Mahwah, NJ) device. The Spacelabs monitor recorded a 10.2-mm Hg higher systolic pressure in the nonrandomized (P=.0016) and a 7.9-mm Hg higher systolic pressure in the randomized studies (P=.00008) compared with the Mobil-O-Graph. The mean arterial pressures were 1 mm Hg to 2 mm Hg different between monitors in the two studies, and heart rates were nearly identical. Our observations, if confirmed in larger cohorts, support the concern that ABPM device manufacturers consider developing normative databases for their devices.

Association of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide with left ventricular structure and function in chronic kidney disease (from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort [CRIC]).

We evaluated the cross-sectional associations of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with cardiac structural and functional abnormalities in a cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease without clinical heart failure, the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (n = 3,232). The associations of NT-proBNP with echocardiographically determined left ventricular (LV) mass and LV systolic and diastolic function were evaluated using multivariate logistic and linear regression models. Reclassification of participants' predicted risk of LV hypertrophy (LVH), systolic and diastolic dysfunction was performed using a category-free net reclassification improvement index that compared a clinical model with and without NT-proBNP. The median NT-proBNP was 126.6 pg/ml (interquartile range 55.5 to 303.7). The greatest quartile of NT-proBNP was associated with a nearly threefold odds of LVH (odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8 to 4.0) and LV systolic dysfunction (odds ratio 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.5) and a twofold odds of diastolic dysfunction (odds ratio 2.0, 95% CI 1.3 to 2.9) in the fully adjusted models. When evaluated alone as a screening test, NT-proBNP functioned modestly for the detection of LVH (area under the curve 0.66) and LV systolic dysfunction (area under the curve 0.62) and poorly for the detection of diastolic dysfunction (area under the curve 0.51). However, when added to the clinical model, NT-proBNP significantly reclassified participants' likelihood of having LVH (net reclassification improvement 0.14, 95% CI 0.13-0.15; p <0.001) and LV systolic dysfunction (net reclassification improvement 0.28, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.30; p <0.001) but not diastolic dysfunction (net reclassification improvement 0.10, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.11; p = 0.07). In conclusion, in this large chronic kidney disease cohort without heart failure, NT-proBNP had strong associations with prevalent LVH and LV systolic dysfunction.