Cancer screening with multicancer detection tests: A translational science review.

Multicancer detection (MCD) tests use a single, easily obtainable biospecimen, such as blood, to screen for more than one cancer concurrently. MCD tests can potentially be used to improve early cancer detection, including cancers that currently lack effective screening methods. However, these tests have unknown and unquantified benefits and harms. MCD tests differ from conventional cancer screening tests in that the organ responsible for a positive test is unknown, and a broad diagnostic workup may be necessary to confirm the location and type of underlying cancer. Among two prospective studies involving greater than 16,000 individuals, MCD tests identified those who had some cancers without currently recommended screening tests, including pancreas, ovary, liver, uterus, small intestine, oropharyngeal, bone, thyroid, and hematologic malignancies, at early stages. Reported MCD test sensitivities range from 27% to 95% but differ by organ and are lower for early stage cancers, for which treatment toxicity would be lowest and the potential for cure might be highest. False reassurance from a negative MCD result may reduce screening adherence, risking a loss in proven public health benefits from standard-of-care screening. Prospective clinical trials are needed to address uncertainties about MCD accuracy to detect different cancers in asymptomatic individuals, whether these tests can detect cancer sufficiently early for effective treatment and mortality reduction, the degree to which these tests may contribute to cancer overdiagnosis and overtreatment, whether MCD tests work equally well across all populations, and the appropriate diagnostic evaluation and follow-up for patients with a positive test.

Absolute lung cancer risk increases among individuals with >15 quit-years: Analyses to inform the update of the American Cancer Society lung cancer screening guidelines.

BACKGROUND: This report quantifies counteracting effects of quit-years and concomitant aging on lung cancer risk, especially on exceeding 15 quit-years, when the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends curtailing lung-cancer screening. METHODS: Cox models were fitted to estimate absolute lung cancer risk among Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) participants who ever smoked. Absolute lung cancer risk and gainable years of life from screening for individuals aged 50 to 80 in the US-representative National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2015-2018 who ever smoked were projected. Relaxing USPSTF recommendations to 20/25/30 quit-years versus augmenting USPSTF criteria with individuals whose estimated gain in life expectancy from screening exceeded 16.2 days according to the Life Years From Screening-CT (LYFS-CT) prediction model was compared. RESULTS: Absolute lung cancer risk increased by 8.7%/year (95% CI, 7.7%-9.7%; p < .001) as individuals aged beyond 15 quit-years in the PLCO, with similar results in NHIS and NLST. For example, mean 5-year lung cancer risk for those aged 65 years with 15 quit-years = 1.47% (95% CI, 1.35%-1.59%) versus 1.76% (95% CI, 1.62%-1.90%) for those aged 70 years with 20 quit-years in the PLCO. Removing the quit-year criterion would make 4.9 million more people eligible and increase the proportion of preventable lung cancer deaths prevented (sensitivity) from 63.7% to 74.2%. Alternatively, augmentation using LYFS-CT would make 1.7 million more people eligible while increasing the lung cancer death sensitivity to 74.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Because of aging, absolute lung cancer risk increases beyond 15 quit-years, which does not support exemption from screening or curtailing screening once it has been initiated. Compared with relaxing the USPSTF quit-year criterion, augmentation using LYFS-CT could prevent most of the deaths at substantially superior efficiency, while also preventing deaths among individuals who currently smoke with low intensity or long duration.

Increase in power by obtaining 10 or more controls per case when type-1 error is small in large-scale association studies.

BACKGROUND: The rule of thumb that there is little gain in statistical power by obtaining more than 4 controls per case, is based on type-1 error α = 0.05. However, association studies that evaluate thousands or millions of associations use smaller α and may have access to plentiful controls. We investigate power gains, and reductions in p-values, when increasing well beyond 4 controls per case, for small α. METHODS: We calculate the power, the median expected p-value, and the minimum detectable odds-ratio (OR), as a function of the number of controls/case, as α decreases. RESULTS: As α decreases, at each ratio of controls per case, the increase in power is larger than for α = 0.05. For α between 10-6 and 10-9 (typical for thousands or millions of associations), increasing from 4 controls per case to 10-50 controls per case increases power. For example, a study with power = 0.2 (α = 5 × 10-8) with 1 control/case has power = 0.65 with 4 controls/case, but with 10 controls/case has power = 0.78, and with 50 controls/case has power = 0.84. For situations where obtaining more than 4 controls per case provides small increases in power beyond 0.9 (at small α), the expected p-value can decrease by orders-of-magnitude below α. Increasing from 1 to 4 controls/case reduces the minimum detectable OR toward the null by 20.9%, and from 4 to 50 controls/case reduces by an additional 9.7%, a result which applies regardless of α and hence also applies to "regular" α = 0.05 epidemiology. CONCLUSIONS: At small α, versus 4 controls/case, recruiting 10 or more controls/cases can increase power, reduce the expected p-value by 1-2 orders of magnitude, and meaningfully reduce the minimum detectable OR. These benefits of increasing the controls/case ratio increase as the number of cases increases, although the amount of benefit depends on exposure frequencies and true OR. Provided that controls are comparable to cases, our findings suggest greater sharing of comparable controls in large-scale association studies.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites. METHODS: Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method. RESULTS: There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma). CONCLUSIONS: Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Independent and joint associations of weightlifting and aerobic activity with all-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

OBJECTIVES: Both aerobic moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and muscle-strengthening exercise (MSE) are recommended, but the mortality benefits of weightlifting, a specific type of MSE, are limited. METHODS: In the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between weightlifting and mortality, adjusting for demographics, lifestyle and behavioural risk factors. The sample included 99 713 adults who completed the follow-up questionnaire that assessed weightlifting who were subsequently followed up through 2016 to determine mortality (median 9, IQR 7.6-10.6 years). RESULTS: Mean age at the follow-up questionnaire was 71.3 (IQR 66-76) years, 52.6% female, with mean body mass index of 27.8 (SD 4.9) kg/m2. Weightlifting was associated with a 9% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR=0.91 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.94)) and CVD mortality (0.91 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.97)) after adjusting for MVPA. Joint models revealed that adults who met aerobic MVPA recommendations but did not weightlift had a 32% lower all-cause mortality risk (HR=0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.70)), while those who also reported weightlifting 1-2 times/week had a 41% lower risk (HR=0.59 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.64)), both compared with adults reporting no aerobic MVPA or weightlifting. Without adjustment for MVPA, weightlifting was associated with lower cancer mortality (HR=0.85 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.91)). CONCLUSION: Weightlifting and MVPA were associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, but not cancer mortality. Adults who met recommended amounts of both types of exercise appeared to gain additional benefit.

Patient Perspectives on the Risk-Based NLST Outcomes Tool for Lung Cancer Screening.

Researchers at the NCI have developed the Risk-Based NLST Outcomes Tool (RNOT), an online tool that calculates risk of lung cancer diagnosis and death with and without lung cancer screening, and false-positive risk estimates. This tool has the potential to facilitate shared decision making for screening. The objective of this study was to examine how current heavy and former smokers understand and respond to personalized risk estimates from the RNOT. Individuals who were eligible for lung cancer screening and were visiting Walter Reed National Military Medical Center were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview to assess their experiences with and perceptions of the RNOT. Results were analyzed using template analysis. Participants found their risk of lung cancer death to be lower than anticipated and were confused by changes in risk for lung cancer diagnosis with and without screening. Most participants indicated that the RNOT would be helpful in making screening decisions, despite reporting that there was no maximum risk for a false positive that would lead them to forgo lung cancer screening. Participants provided actionable needs and recommendations to optimize this tool. Risk-based screening tools may enhance shared decision making. The RNOT is being updated to incorporate these findings.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease: A risk factor for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have suggested that gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) may be associated with risk of squamous cancers of the larynx and esophagus; however, most of these studies have had methodological limitations or insufficient control for potential confounders. METHODS: We prospectively examined the association between GERD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EADC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) in 490,605 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort who were 50-71 years of age at baseline. Exposure to risk factors were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. GERD diagnosis was extracted among eligible participants via linkage to Medicare diagnoses codes and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of GERD were computed using Cox regression. RESULTS: From 1995 to 2011, we accrued 931 cases of EADC, 876 cases of LSCC, and 301 cases of ESCC in this cohort and estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.23 (95% CI, 1.72-2.90), 1.91 (95% CI, 1.24-2.94), and 1.99 (95% CI, 1.39-2.84) for EADC, LSCC, and ESCC, respectively. The associations were independent of sex, smoking status, alcohol intake, and follow-up time periods. We estimated that among the general population in the United States, 22.04% of people aged 50-71 years suffered from GERD. Using risk factor distributions for the United States from national survey data, 16.92% of LSCC cases and 17.32% of ESCC cases among individuals aged 50-71 years were estimated to be associated with GERD. CONCLUSION: GERD is a common gastrointestinal disorder, but future prospective studies are needed to replicate our findings. If replicated, they may inform clinical surveillance of GERD patients and suggest new avenues for prevention of these malignancies.

Aspirin, ibuprofen, and reduced risk of advanced colorectal adenoma incidence and recurrence and colorectal cancer in the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: Studying the differential impact of aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs across the stages of colorectal neoplasia from early adenoma to cancer is critical for understanding the benefits of these widely used drugs. METHODS: With 13 years of follow-up, the authors prospectively evaluated the association between aspirin and ibuprofen use and incident distal adenoma (1221 cases), recurrent adenoma (862 cases), and incident colorectal cancer (CRC; 2826 cases) among men and women in the population-based Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. With multivariable-adjusted models, odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for adenoma incidence and recurrence and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident CRC were determined. RESULTS: The authors observed a significantly reduced risk of incident adenoma with ibuprofen use (≥30 vs <4 pills per month: OR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.60-0.95]; Ptrend = .04), particularly advanced adenoma (OR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.28-0.83]; Ptrend = .005). Among those with a previous adenoma detected through screening, aspirin use was associated with a decreased risk of advanced recurrent adenoma (≥30 vs <4 pills per month: OR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.36-0.87]; Ptrend = 0.006). Both aspirin (HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.81-0.96]; Ptrend <.0001) and ibuprofen use (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.70-0.93); Ptrend = 0.003) ≥30 versus <4 pills per month were significantly associated with reduced CRC risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study with long-term follow-up, a beneficial role for not only aspirin, but also ibuprofen, in preventing advanced adenoma and curbing progression to recurrence and cancer among older adults was observed.

Population Attributable Risks of Subtypes of Esophageal and Gastric Cancers in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: To help target preventive strategies, we estimated US population attributable risks (PARs) of demographic and potentially modifiable risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA). METHODS: We prospectively examined the associations for risk factors and these cancers in 490,605 people in the National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort Diet and Health Study cohort from 1995 to 2011. Exposures were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Diagnoses of gastroesophageal reflux disease were extracted for a subset of eligible National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort subjects through linkage to Medicare and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible subjects. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Adjusted population attributable risks were calculated for the US population aged 50-71 years by combining the hazard ratios with the estimated joint distribution of risk factor prevalence from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey. RESULTS: Smoking remained the most important risk factor for ESCC and was estimated to cause more than 1/3 of EAC and GCA and 1/10 of GNCA. Obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with more than 1/2 of EAC and 1/3 of GCA. Compared with each lowest-risk level category, common risk factors were estimated to be associated with 73.7% of ESCC (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.1%-85.4%), 70.3% of EAC (95% CI: 64.4%-76.2%), 69.3% of GCA (95% CI: 61.0%-77.7%), and 33.6% of GNCA (95% CI: 21.7%-45.5%). DISCUSSION: These factors accounted for a large proportion of esophageal and gastric cancers in the United States, highlighting opportunities for education and intervention to reduce the burden of these highly fatal cancers.

Addressing Disparities in Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility and Healthcare Access. An Official American Thoracic Society Statement.

Background: There are well-documented disparities in lung cancer outcomes across populations. Lung cancer screening (LCS) has the potential to reduce lung cancer mortality, but for this benefit to be realized by all high-risk groups, there must be careful attention to ensuring equitable access to this lifesaving preventive health measure.Objectives: To outline current knowledge on disparities in eligibility criteria for, access to, and implementation of LCS, and to develop an official American Thoracic Society statement to propose strategies to optimize current screening guidelines and resource allocation for equitable LCS implementation and dissemination.Methods: A multidisciplinary panel with expertise in LCS, implementation science, primary care, pulmonology, health behavior, smoking cessation, epidemiology, and disparities research was convened. Participants reviewed available literature on historical disparities in cancer screening and emerging evidence of disparities in LCS.Results: Existing LCS guidelines do not consider racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and sex-based differences in smoking behaviors or lung cancer risk. Multiple barriers, including access to screening and cost, further contribute to the inequities in implementation and dissemination of LCS.Conclusions: This statement identifies the impact of LCS eligibility criteria on vulnerable populations who are at increased risk of lung cancer but do not meet eligibility criteria for screening, as well as multiple barriers that contribute to disparities in LCS implementation. Strategies to improve the selection and dissemination of LCS in vulnerable groups are described.

Absolute risks of cervical precancer among women who fulfill exiting guidelines based on HPV and cytology cotesting.

US guidelines recommend that most women older than 65 years cease cervical screening after two consecutive negative cotests (concurrent HPV and cytology tests) in the previous 10 years, with one in the last 5 years. However, this recommendation was based on expert opinion and modeling rather than empirical data on cancer risk. We therefore estimated the 5-year risks of cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ [CIN3]) after one, two and three negative cotests among 346,760 women aged 55-64 years undergoing routine cotesting at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (2003-2015). Women with a history of excisional treatment or CIN2+ were excluded. No woman with one or more negative cotests was diagnosed with cancer during follow-up. Five-year risks of CIN3 after one, two, and three consecutive negative cotests were 0.034% (95% CI: 0.023%-0.046%), 0.041% (95% CI: 0.007%-0.076%) and 0.016% (95% CI: 0.000%-0.052%), respectively (ptrend < 0.001). These risks did not appreciably differ by a positive cotest result prior to the one, two or three negative cotest(s). Since CIN3 risks after one or more negative cotests were significantly below a proposed 0.12% CIN3+ risk threshold for a 5-year screening interval, a longer screening interval in these women is justified. However, the choice of how many negative cotests provide sufficient safety against invasive cancer over a woman's remaining life represents a value judgment based on the harms versus benefits of continued screening. Ideally, this guideline should be informed by longer-term follow-up given that exiting is a long-term decision.

Serum ghrelin and esophageal and gastric cancer in two cohorts in China.

Ghrelin is a hormone produced in the oxyntic glands of the stomach. Previous work by our group has suggested that serum ghrelin concentrations are inversely associated with gastric and esophageal cancer risk. We measured ghrelin concentrations in the Linxian General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT), and the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS). In NIT, we analyzed serum samples from 298 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) cases, 518 gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) cases, 258 gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) cases and 770 subcohort controls (case-cohort). In SWHS, we measured ghrelin in plasma samples from 249 GNCA cases and 498 matched controls (nested case-control). Ghrelin was measured using radioimmunoassay. In NIT and SWHS, low ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk of developing GNCA and GCA. The hazard ratio (HR Q1:Q4 ) for GNCA in NIT was 1.35 (95% CI: 0.89-2.05; p-trend = 0.02); the odds ratio in SWHS was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.02-2.70; p-trend = 0.06). Low ghrelin was associated with a twofold increase of GCA (HR Q1:Q4 = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.45-2.77; p-trend<0.001). In contrast, a lower risk of ESCC (NIT ESCC HR Q1:Q4 = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.92; p-trend = 0.02) was found in NIT. Low baseline ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk for GNCA and GCA in the NIT and the SWHS. In contrast, low ghrelin concentrations at baseline were associated with a reduced risk of developing ESCC in the NIT. Ghrelin may be an early marker of future cancer risk for developing upper gastrointestinal cancer in regions of high incidence.

Pre-transplant short telomeres are associated with high mortality risk after unrelated donor haematopoietic cell transplant for severe aplastic anaemia.

Telomeres are essential for chromosomal stability and markers of biological age. We evaluated the effect of pre-transplant short (<10th percentile-for-age) or very short (<5th or <1st percentile-for-age) leucocyte telomere length on survival after unrelated donor haematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acquired severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). Patient pre-transplant blood samples and clinical data were available at the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. We used quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction to measure relative telomere length (RTL) in 490 SAA patients who received HCT between 1990 and 2013 (median age = 20 years). One hundred and twelve patients (22·86%) had pre-HCT RTL <10th percentile-for-age, with the majority below the 5th percentile (N = 80, 71·43%). RTL <10th percentile-for-age was associated with a higher risk of post-HCT mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1·78, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1·18-2·69, P = 0·006) compared with RTL ≥50th percentile; no survival differences were noted in longer RTL categories (P > 0·10). Time-dependent effects for post-HCT mortality were only observed in relation to very short RTL; HR comparing RTL <5th versus ≥5th percentile = 1·38, P = 0·15 for the first 12 months after HCT, and HR = 3·91, P < 0·0001, thereafter, P-heterogeneity = 0·008; the corresponding HRs for RTL <1st versus ≥1st percentile = 1·29, P = 0·41, and HR = 5·18, P < 0·0001, P-heterogeneity = 0·005. The study suggests a potential role for telomere length in risk stratification of SAA patients in regard to their HCT survival.

Donor telomere length and causes of death after unrelated hematopoietic cell transplantation in patients with marrow failure.

Previous studies have suggested that longer donor leukocyte telomere length (TL) is associated with improved survival after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in severe aplastic anemia (SAA). This study aimed to determine whether cell-specific lymphocyte TL is associated with certain post-HCT causes of death. We used flow cytometry and fluorescence in situ hybridization to measure TL in donor total lymphocytes and subsets: naïve enriched T cells (CD45RA+CD20-), memory enriched T cells (CD45RA-CD20-), natural killer (NK) fully differentiated T cells (CD45RA+CD57+), and B cells (CD45RA+CD20+). Competing risk survival regression was used for cause-specific death analyses. Clinical data and biospecimens were available from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database and biorepository. The study included 197 patients who underwent unrelated-donor HCT for SAA between 1988 and 2004. The median age at HCT was 15 years (range, 0.5-40 years), and the median follow-up was 5 years (range, <1 month to 20.7 years). Longer donor TL in all cell subsets was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (P < .01). In cause-specific mortality analyses, longer TL in B cells (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.87; P = .006) and possibly NK fully differentiated T cells (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.97; P = .03) was associated with lower risk of infection-related death. Donor TL in other tested lymphocyte subsets was not statistically significantly associated with death resulting from graft-versus-host disease or graft failure (P > .05). However, a trend toward excess risk of graft-versus-host mortality was noted (HR for total lymphocyte TL, 1.26; P = .15). In conclusion, longer donor TL was associated with reduced rate of infection-related deaths after HCT for SAA.

Sample-weighted semiparametric estimation of cause-specific cumulative risk and incidence using left- or interval-censored data from electronic health records.

Electronic health records (EHRs) can be a cost-effective data source for forming cohorts and developing risk models in the context of disease screening. However, important issues need to be handled: competing outcomes, left-censoring of prevalent disease, interval-censoring of incident disease, and uncertainty of prevalent disease when accurate disease ascertainment is not conducted at baseline. Furthermore, novel tests that are costly and limited in availability can be conducted on stored biospecimens selected as samples from EHRs by using different sampling fractions. We extend sample-weighted semiparametric marginal mixture models to estimating competing risks. For flexible modeling of relative risks, a general transformation of the subdistribution hazard function and regression parameters is used. We propose a numerical algorithm for nonparametrically calculating the maximum likelihood estimates for subdistribution hazard functions and regression parameters. Methods for calculating the consistent confidence intervals for relative and absolute risk estimates are presented. The proposed algorithm and methods show reliable finite sample performance through simulation studies. We apply our methods to a cohort assembled from EHRs at a health maintenance organization where we estimate cumulative risk of cervical precancer/cancer and incidence of infection-clearance by HPV genotype among human papillomavirus (HPV) positive women. There is no significant difference in 3-year HPV-clearance rates across different HPV types, but 3-year cumulative risk of progression-to-precancer/cancer from HPV-16 is relatively higher than the other HPV genotypes.

Statistical approaches using longitudinal biomarkers for disease early detection: A comparison of methodologies.

Early detection of clinical outcomes such as cancer may be predicted using longitudinal biomarker measurements. Tracking longitudinal biomarkers as a way to identify early disease onset may help to reduce mortality from diseases like ovarian cancer that are more treatable if detected early. Two disease risk prediction frameworks, the shared random effects model (SREM) and the pattern mixture model (PMM) could be used to assess longitudinal biomarkers on disease early detection. In this article, we studied the discrimination and calibration performances of SREM and PMM on disease early detection through an application to ovarian cancer, where early detection using the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA) has been evaluated. Comparisons of the above three approaches were performed via analyses of the ovarian cancer data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Discrimination was evaluated by the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve and its area, while calibration was assessed using calibration plot and the ratio of observed to expected number of diseased subjects. The out-of-sample performances were calculated via using leave-one-out cross-validation, aiming to minimize potential model overfitting. A careful analysis of using the biomarker cancer antigen 125 for ovarian cancer early detection showed significantly improved discrimination performance of PMM as compared with SREM and ROCA, nevertheless all approaches were generally well calibrated. Robustness of all approaches was further investigated in extensive simulation studies. The improved performance of PMM relative to ROCA is in part due to the fact that the biomarker measurements were taken at a yearly interval, which is not frequent enough to reliably estimate the changepoint or the slope after changepoint in cases under ROCA.

Life-Gained-Based Versus Risk-Based Selection of Smokers for Lung Cancer Screening.

Background: Although risk-based selection of ever-smokers for screening could prevent more lung cancer deaths than screening according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, it preferentially selects older ever-smokers with shorter life expectancies due to comorbidities. Objective: To compare selection of ever-smokers for screening based on gains in life expectancy versus lung cancer risk. Design: Cohort analyses and model-based projections. Setting: U.S. population of ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years. Participants: 130 964 National Health Interview Survey participants, representing about 60 million U.S. ever-smokers during 1997 to 2015. Intervention: Annual computed tomography (CT) screening for 3 years versus no screening. Measurements: Estimated number of lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained after development of a mortality model. Results: Using the calibrated and validated mortality model in U.S. ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years and selecting 8.3 million ever-smokers to match the number selected by the USPSTF criteria in 2013 to 2015, the analysis estimated that life-gained-based selection would increase the total life expectancy from CT screening (633 400 vs. 607 800 years) but prevent fewer lung cancer deaths (52 600 vs. 55 000) compared with risk-based selection. The 1.56 million persons selected by the life-gained-based strategy but not the risk-based strategy were younger (mean age, 59 vs. 75 years) and had fewer comorbidities (mean, 0.75 vs. 3.7). Limitation: Estimates are model-based and assume implementation of lung cancer screening with short-term effectiveness similar to that from trials. Conclusion: Life-gained-based selection could maximize the benefits of lung cancer screening in the U.S. population by including ever-smokers who have both high lung cancer risk and long life expectancy. Primary Funding Source: Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.

2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines: Methods for Risk Estimation, Recommended Management, and Validation.

OBJECTIVE: To manage cervical screening abnormalities, the 2019 ASCCP management consensus guidelines will recommend clinical action on the basis of risk of cervical precancer and cancer. This article details the methods used to estimate risk, to determine the risk-based management, and to validate that the risk-based recommendations are of general use in different settings. METHODS: Based on 1.5 million patients undergoing triennial cervical screening by cotesting at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2003 to 2017, we estimated risk profiles for different clinical scenarios and combinations of past and current human papillomavirus and cytology test results. We validated the recommended management by comparing with the estimated risks in several external data sources. RESULTS: Risk and management tables are presented separately by Egemen et al. and Demarco et al. Risk-based management derived from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California largely agreed with the management implied from the estimated risks of the other data sources. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk-based guidelines present management of abnormal cervical screening results. By describing the steps used to develop these guidelines, the methods presented in this article can provide a basis for future extensions of the risk-based guidelines.

Risk Estimates Supporting the 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines.

The 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines for the management of cervical cancer screening abnormalities recommend 1 of 6 clinical actions (treatment, optional treatment or colposcopy/biopsy, colposcopy/biopsy, 1-year surveillance, 3-year surveillance, 5-year return to regular screening) based on the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cancer (CIN 3+) for the many different combinations of current and recent past screening results. This article supports the main guidelines presentation by presenting and explaining the risk estimates that supported the guidelines. METHODS: From 2003 to 2017 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), 1.5 million individuals aged 25 to 65 years were screened with human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytology cotesting scheduled every 3 years. We estimated immediate and 5-year risks of CIN 3+ for combinations of current test results paired with history of screening test and colposcopy/biopsy results. RESULTS: Risk tables are presented for different clinical scenarios. Examples of important results are highlighted; for example, the risk posed by most current abnormalities is greatly reduced if the prior screening round was HPV-negative. The immediate and 5-year risks of CIN 3+ used to decide clinical management are shown. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk-based guidelines present recommendations for the management of abnormal screening test and histology results; the key risk estimates supporting guidelines are presented in this article. Comprehensive risk estimates are freely available online at https://CervixCa.nlm.nih.gov/RiskTables.

Circulating inflammation markers and colorectal adenoma risk.

Inflammation is a driver of colorectal neoplasia; however, what particular inflammatory processes play a role in early carcinogenesis are unclear. We compared serum levels of 78 inflammation markers between 171 pathologically confirmed colorectal adenoma cases (including 48 incident cases) and 344 controls within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We used weighted multivariable logistic regression to compute odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We found 14 markers associated with risk of adenoma overall; three of these were also associated with incident adenoma: CC-chemokine cysteine motif chemokine ligand 20 (CCL20) [overall adenoma fourth versus first quartile: OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.0-12, Ptrend 0.0007; incident adenoma third versus first tertile: OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.0-22, Ptrend 0.03], growth-related gene oncogene products (GRO) [OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.6-9.3, Ptrend 0.006 and OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.1-12, Ptrend 0.04, respectively] and insulin [OR 2.9, 95% CI 0.8-10, Ptrend 0.05 and OR 7.8, 95% CI 1.3-46, Ptrend 0.03, respectively]. All statistical tests were two-sided. These results provide important new evidence implicating CCL20- and GRO-related pathways in early colorectal carcinogenesis and further support a role for insulin.