Association between longitudinal biomarkers and major adverse liver outcomes in patients with non-cirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Non-invasive biomarkers provide prognostic information for the development of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), but the predictive value of longitudinal biomarker measurements has not been evaluated. We assessed whether changes in biomarkers could predict incident MALO in MASLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed a cohort of 1,260 patients (71.7% on biopsy) with non-cirrhotic MASLD between 1974 and 2019. Data at baseline and follow-up visits were obtained from medical charts. MALO was determined through medical charts and linkage to national registers until the end of 2020. A joint modeling approach was used to quantify the associations between the trajectory of biomarkers with the risk of MALO. MASLD was diagnosed at median age of 52 years (IQR: 39-60), and 59% were male. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 111 (8.8%) patients developed MALO. The joint modeling showed that an elevated FIB-4 (HR 2.60, 95% CI 1.89-3.50), AST (HR 2.69, 95% CI 2.57-3.05), and lower platelet count (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.97) at any time point were associated with an increased risk of MALO, whereas the rate of change in these biomarkers had no association with this risk. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to baseline measurements of non-invasive biomarkers such as FIB-4 and AST, and platelets taken at MASLD diagnosis, monitoring their values over time is important, as the latest value of these biomarkers is closely associated with the risk of future MALO. The rate of change may not be as important.

Serum ferritin levels can predict long-term outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Hyperferritinaemia is associated with liver fibrosis severity in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), but the longitudinal implications have not been thoroughly investigated. We assessed the role of serum ferritin in predicting long-term outcomes or death. DESIGN: We evaluated the relationship between baseline serum ferritin and longitudinal events in a multicentre cohort of 1342 patients. Four survival models considering ferritin with confounders or non-invasive scoring systems were applied with repeated five-fold cross-validation schema. Prediction performance was evaluated in terms of Harrell's C-index and its improvement by including ferritin as a covariate. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 96 months. Liver-related events occurred in 7.7%, hepatocellular carcinoma in 1.9%, cardiovascular events in 10.9%, extrahepatic cancers in 8.3% and all-cause mortality in 5.8%. Hyperferritinaemia was associated with a 50% increased risk of liver-related events and 27% of all-cause mortality. A stepwise increase in baseline ferritin thresholds was associated with a statistical increase in C-index, ranging between 0.02 (lasso-penalised Cox regression) and 0.03 (ridge-penalised Cox regression); the risk of developing liver-related events mainly increased from threshold 215.5 µg/L (median HR=1.71 and C-index=0.71) and the risk of overall mortality from threshold 272 µg/L (median HR=1.49 and C-index=0.70). The inclusion of serum ferritin thresholds (215.5 µg/L and 272 µg/L) in predictive models increased the performance of Fibrosis-4 and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score in the longitudinal risk assessment of liver-related events (C-indices>0.71) and overall mortality (C-indices>0.65). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the potential use of serum ferritin values for predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with MASLD.

Misclassified Alcohol-related Liver Disease is Common in Presumed Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease and Highly Increases Risk for Future Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol overconsumption is a risk factor for disease progression in patients with presumed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). How commonly this occurs and how it affects progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) is not well known. METHODS: We did a register-based cohort study, including all patients with a diagnosis of MASLD in Sweden between 1987 and 2020. Patients were stratified on co-occurrence of diagnoses of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) prior to MASLD diagnosis. Incident MALOs were derived from national registers. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident MALO. RESULTS: A total of 15,107 patients with MASLD were identified. The median age was 55 years, and 52% were female. Of the patients, 1843 (12%) had a prior diagnosis of ALD or AUD. During follow-up, a further 787 patients (5.2%) received a diagnosis of ALD or AUD. Patients with previous ALD or AUD diagnoses at or before baseline had considerably higher rates of MALOs compared with patients without (19.5% vs 7.8%; adjusted HR, 3.12; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-3.55). Acquiring an ALD or AUD diagnosis after MASLD diagnosis was associated with higher rates of MALOs (adjusted HR, 5.81; 95% confidence interval, 4.90-6.88). CONCLUSIONS: ALD or AUD is commonly diagnosed prior to or after MASLD diagnosis. Such patients have considerably higher rates of progression to MALOs. Correctly separating between MASLD and ALD is vital to assess prognosis.

Performance of novel collagen turnover biomarkers to detect increased liver stiffness in MASLD.

BACKGROUND: Cleavage products from collagen formation and degradation hold potential as first-line biomarkers for the risk of advanced fibrosis in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Here, we evaluated the performance of PRO-C3, PRO-C6, C4M, PRO-C18L, and the clinical score ADAPT (age, diabetes, PRO-C3, and platelet count) to detect patients with an LSM >8 kPa or >12 kPa in comparison to the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4). METHODS: Serum from patients with MASLD (n = 269) from six Swedish University Hospitals was analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based methods. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography was performed. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and net benefit analysis were used. RESULTS: An LSM >8 kPa was found in 108 (40.1%) patients. PRO-C3, PRO-C6, C4M, and PRO-C18L had AUCs ranging from 0.48 to 0.62. ADAPT had the highest AUC (0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67-0.79) to detect patients >8 kPa, compared to FIB-4 (0.71, (95%CI = 0.64-0.77, p = 0.35), and had a higher net benefit compared to FIB-4 from a probability threshold of 15%. FIB-4 and ADAPT performed equally well to detect patients with an LSM >12 kPa, AUC 0.76 versus 0.76, p = 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: ADAPT seems to be marginally better than FIB-4 in identifying patients with an LSM >8 kPa. However, the clinical utility of ADAPT as a first line test is uncertain, especially in low-risk populations. The overall performance of FIB-4 was similar to that of ADAPT in detecting patients with an LSM of >12 kPa. Altogether, the results suggest that ADAPT might be useful to detect earlier stages of fibrosis in MASLD, but that FIB-4 remains a first-line test for advanced fibrosis.

Activin A levels in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease associates with fibrosis and the PNPLA3 I148M variant.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most prevalent chronic liver condition worldwide. There is an urgent need to develop new biomarkers to assess disease severity and to define patients with a progressive phenotype. Activin A is a new promising biomarker with conflicting results about liver fibrosis. In this study we investigate levels of Activin A in patients with biopsy proven MASLD. We assess levels of Activin A in regard to fibrosis stage and genetic variant I148M in the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3). METHODS: Activin A levels were assessed in plasma samples from patients with biopsy-proven MASLD in a cross-sectional study. All patients were clinically evaluated and the PNPLA3 I148M genotype of the cohort was assessed. FINDINGS: 41 patients were included and 27% of these had advanced fibrosis. In MASLD patients with advanced fibrosis, Activin A levels was higher (p < 0.001) and could classify advanced fibrosis with an AUROC for activin A of 0.836 (p < 0.001). Patients homozygous for PNPLA3 I148M G/G had higher levels of activin A than non-homozygotes (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating activin A levels were associated with advanced fibrosis and could be a potential blood biomarker for identifying advanced fibrosis in MASLD. Patients with the risk genotype PNPLA3 I148M G/G had higher levels of activin A proposing activin A as a contributor of the transition from simple steatosis to a fibrotic phenotype.

Prospective surveillance for cholangiocarcinoma in unselected individuals with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The evidence for hepatobiliary tumour surveillance in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is scarce. In this study, we aimed to prospectively evaluate cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) surveillance with yearly MRI with cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) in a nationwide cohort. METHODS: In total, 512 patients with PSC from 11 Swedish hospitals were recruited. The study protocol included yearly clinical follow-ups, liver function tests and contrast-enhanced MRI/MRCP and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9. Patients with severe/progressive bile duct changes on MRI/MRCP were further investigated with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. Patients were followed for 5 years or until a diagnosis of CCA, liver transplantation (LT) and/or death. Risk factors associated with CCA were analysed with Cox regression. RESULTS: Eleven patients (2%) were diagnosed with CCA, and two (0.5%) with high-grade bile duct dysplasia. Severe/progressive bile duct changes on MRI/MRCP were detected in 122 patients (24%), of whom 10% had an underlying malignancy. The primary indication for LT (n = 54) was biliary dysplasia in nine patients (17%) and end-stage liver disease in 45 patients (83%), of whom three patients (7%) had unexpected malignancy in the explants. The median survival for patients with CCA was 13 months (3-22 months). Time to diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia and/or hepatobiliary malignancy was significantly associated with severe/progressive bile duct changes on MRI/MRCP (hazard ratio 10.50; 95% CI 2.49-44.31) and increased levels of CA19-9 (hazard ratio 1.00; 95% CI 1.00-1.01). CONCLUSION: In an unselected cohort of patients with PSC, yearly CA19-9 and MRI/MRCP surveillance followed by ERCP was ineffective in detecting cancer early enough to support long-term survival. Given the low occurrence of CCA, studies on individualised strategies for follow-up and improved diagnostic methods for PSC-related CCA are warranted. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: A prospective nationwide 5-year study was conducted to evaluate yearly cholangiocarcinoma surveillance using MRI and CA19-9 in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. Only 2% of the patients were diagnosed with cholangiocarcinoma during follow-up and their prognosis remained poor despite surveillance. This surveillance strategy failed to detect cancer early enough to support long-term survival. Therefore, individualised strategies and improved diagnostic methods will be required to improve the early detection of cholangiocarcinoma in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies. RESULTS: Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.

Impact on follow-up strategies in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Evidence for the benefit of scheduled imaging for early detection of hepatobiliary malignancies in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is limited. We aimed to compare different follow-up strategies in PSC with the hypothesis that regular imaging improves survival. METHODS: We collected retrospective data from 2975 PSC patients from 27 centres. Patients were followed from the start of scheduled imaging or in case of clinical follow-up from 1 January 2000, until death or last clinical follow-up alive. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A broad variety of different follow-up strategies were reported. All except one centre used regular imaging, ultrasound (US) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Two centres used scheduled endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in addition to imaging for surveillance purposes. The overall HR (CI95%) for death, adjusted for sex, age and start year of follow-up, was 0.61 (0.47-0.80) for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP; 0.64 (0.48-0.86) for US/MRI and 0.53 (0.37-0.75) for follow-up strategies including scheduled ERCP. The lower risk of death remained for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP after adjustment for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or high-grade dysplasia as a time-dependent covariate, HR 0.57 (0.44-0.75). Hepatobiliary malignancy was diagnosed in 175 (5.9%) of the patients at 7.9 years of follow-up. Asymptomatic patients (25%) with CCA had better survival if scheduled imaging had been performed. CONCLUSIONS: Follow-up strategies vary considerably across centres. Scheduled imaging was associated with improved survival. Multiple factors may contribute to this result including early tumour detection and increased endoscopic treatment of asymptomatic benign biliary strictures.

A rapid, non-invasive, clinical surveillance for CachExia, sarcopenia, portal hypertension, and hepatocellular carcinoma in end-stage liver disease: the ACCESS-ESLD study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis, the advanced stage of many chronic liver diseases, is associated with escalated risks of liver-related complications like decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis patients are linked to portal hypertension, sarcopenia, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although conventional cirrhosis management centered on treating complications, contemporary approaches prioritize preemptive measures. This study aims to formulate novel blood- and imaging-centric methodologies for monitoring liver cirrhosis patients. METHODS: In this prospective study, 150 liver cirrhosis patients will be enrolled from three Swedish liver clinics. Their conditions will be assessed through extensive blood-based markers and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The MRI protocol encompasses body composition profile with Muscle Assement Score, portal flow assessment, magnet resonance elastography, and a abbreviated MRI for HCC screening. Evaluation of lifestyle, muscular strength, physical performance, body composition, and quality of life will be conducted. Additionally, DNA, serum, and plasma biobanking will facilitate future investigations. DISCUSSION: The anticipated outcomes involve the identification and validation of non-invasive blood- and imaging-oriented biomarkers, enhancing the care paradigm for liver cirrhosis patients. Notably, the temporal evolution of these biomarkers will be crucial for understanding dynamic changes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, registration identifier NCT05502198. Registered on 16 August 2022. Link: https://classic. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT05502198 .

Non-invasive tests accurately stratify patients with NAFLD based on their risk of liver-related events.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies on the prognostic significance of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) lack direct comparison to liver biopsy. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of fibrosis-4 (FIB4) and vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), compared to liver biopsy, for the prediction of liver-related events (LREs) in NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 1,057 patients with NAFLD and baseline FIB4 and VCTE were included in a multicenter cohort. Of these patients, 594 also had a baseline liver biopsy. The main study outcome during follow-up was occurrence of LREs, a composite endpoint combining cirrhosis complications and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Discriminative ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-index. RESULTS: FIB4 and VCTE showed good accuracy for the prediction of LREs, with Harrell's C-indexes >0.80 (0.817 [0.768-0.866] vs. 0.878 [0.835-0.921], respectively, p = 0.059). In the biopsy subgroup, Harrell's C-indexes of histological fibrosis staging and VCTE were not significantly different (0.932 [0.910-0.955] vs. 0.881 [0.832-0.931], respectively, p = 0.164), while both significantly outperformed FIB4 for the prediction of LREs. FIB4 and VCTE were independent predictors of LREs in the whole study cohort. The stepwise FIB4-VCTE algorithm accurately stratified the risk of LREs: compared to patients with "FIB4 <1.30", those with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE <8.0 kPa" had similar risk of LREs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.3; 95% CI 0.3-6.8), whereas the risk of LREs significantly increased in patients with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE 8.0-12.0 kPa" (aHR 3.8; 95% CI 1.3-10.9), and even more for those with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE >12.0 kPa" (aHR 12.4; 95% CI 5.1-30.2). CONCLUSION: VCTE and FIB4 accurately stratify patients with NAFLD based on their risk of LREs. These non-invasive tests are alternatives to liver biopsy for the identification of patients in need of specialized management. LAY SUMMARY: The amount of fibrosis in the liver is closely associated with the risk of liver-related complications in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Liver biopsy currently remains the reference standard for the evaluation of fibrosis, but its application is limited by its invasiveness. Therefore, we evaluated the ability of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests to predict liver-related complications in NAFLD. Our results show that the blood test FIB4 and transient elastography stratify the risk of liver-related complications in NAFLD, and that transient elastography has similar prognostic accuracy as liver biopsy. These results support the use of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests instead of liver biopsy for the management of patients with NAFLD.

Risk for hepatic and extra-hepatic outcomes in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is defined by presence of steatosis in more than 5% of liver cells. The gold standard for diagnosis is liver biopsy, but this is seldom achieved due to costs and risk for side effects, and that is why the diagnosis is mostly made based on a combination of radiology and exclusion of other liver diseases. Disease severity staging can be noninvasively achieved with radiological exams such as elastography or blood-based markers that usually have lower sensitivity and specificity. NAFLD is today the most common chronic liver disease globally with a prevalence estimated to be 25%. Fortunately, for many persons NAFLD is an incidental finding with a good prognosis. Whilst a major focus has been on liver-related outcomes in NAFLD, there has recently been an increased interest in extrahepatic consequences of NAFLD. The most commonly studied outcomes include cardiovascular disease and cancer. The risk of adverse outcomes generally differs according to the baseline fibrosis stage. There is a five-time higher risk of liver-related events in NAFLD patients with fibrosis stage 3 as compared to those with no or little fibrosis. Meanwhile, the presence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) does not seem to influence prognosis in addition to fibrosis stage. Patients with NAFLD clearly have a higher risk for cardiovascular outcomes compared to the general population, with a recent meta-analysis indicating a 37% increased hazard for cardiovascular events as opposed to individuals without NAFLD. The risk of liver cancer is increased, which is mostly driven by presence of cirrhosis, but the increased risk is present also in patients without cirrhosis, and to a greater extent than for other chronic liver disease. Around one-third of patients with NAFLD and liver cancer do not have cirrhosis. Additionally, the risk of extrahepatic malignancies is thought to be moderately increased, with most evidence for a link between NAFLD and colorectal cancer where the risk is approximately 50% higher compared to patients without NAFLD. A particularly salient point is if NAFLD can be considered an independent risk factor for outcomes. Many studies have not been able to adjust for key confounders, or suffer from different forms of bias. The clinical problem is nevertheless to identify persons with an increased risk for adverse hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes. We here discuss the evidence linking NAFLD to severe hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes.

Repeated measurements of non-invasive fibrosis tests to monitor the progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The presence of advanced hepatic fibrosis is the prime marker for the prediction of liver-related complications in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Blood-based non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed to evaluate fibrosis and identify patients at risk. Current guidelines propose monitoring the progression of NAFLD using repeated NITs at 2-3-year intervals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of changes in NITs measured at two time points with the progression of NAFLD. METHODS: We retrospectively included NAFLD patients with NIT measurements in whom the baseline hepatic fibrosis stage had been assessed by biopsy or transient elastography (TE). Subjects underwent follow-up visits at least 1 year from baseline to evaluate the progression of NAFLD. NAFLD progression was defined as the development of end-stage liver disease or fibrosis progression according to repeat biopsy or TE. The following NITs were calculated at baseline and follow-up: Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and dynamic aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (dAAR). RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-five patients were included with a mean follow-up of 12.6 ± 8.5 years. During follow-up, 41 patients (30%) were diagnosed with progressive NAFLD. Change in NIT scores during follow-up was significantly associated with disease progression for all NITs tested except for NFS. However, the diagnostic precision was suboptimal with area under the receiver operating characteristics 0.56-0.64 and positive predictive values of 0.28-0.36 at sensitivity fixed at 90%. CONCLUSIONS: Change of FIB-4, NFS, APRI, and dAAR scores is only weakly associated with disease progression in NAFLD. Our findings do not support repeated measurements of these NITs for monitoring the course of NAFLD.

Effect of common genetic variants on the risk of cirrhosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease during 20 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several genotypes associate with a worse histopathological profile in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Whether genotypes impact long-term outcomes is unclear. We investigated the importance of PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7 and GCKR genotype for the development of severe outcomes in NAFLD. METHOD: DNA samples were collected from 546 patients with NAFLD. Advanced fibrosis was diagnosed by liver biopsy or elastography. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was histologically defined. Additionally, 5396 controls matched for age, sex and municipality were identified from population-based registers. Events of severe liver disease and all-cause mortality were collected from national registries. Hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index and type 2 diabetes were estimated with Cox regression. RESULTS: In NAFLD, the G/G genotype of PNPLA3 was associated with a higher prevalence of NASH at baseline (odds ratio [OR] 3.67, 95% CI = 1.66-8.08), but not with advanced fibrosis (OR 1.81, 95% CI = 0.79-4.14). After up to 40 years of follow-up, the PNPLA3 G/G genotype was associated with a higher rate of severe liver disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.27, 95% CI = 1.15-4.47) compared with the C/C variant. NAFLD patients developed cirrhosis at a higher rate than controls (aHR 9.00, 95% CI = 6.85-11.83). The PNPLA3 G/G genotype accentuated this rate (aHR 23.32, 95% = CI 9.14-59.47). Overall mortality was not affected by any genetic variant. CONCLUSION: The PNPLA3 G/G genotype is associated with an increased rate of cirrhosis in NAFLD. Our results suggest that assessment of the PNPLA3 genotype is of clinical relevance in patients with NAFLD to individualize monitoring and therapeutic strategies.

Low awareness of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes in Swedish Primary Health Care.

OBJECTIVES: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is more common in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) compared to individuals without. Recent guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in patients with T2DM. Our aim was to investigate the prevalence of NAFLD in patients with T2DM in a Swedish primary health care setting, how they are cared for and assess the risk of biochemical signs of advanced fibrosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this cohort study, patients with T2DM from five primary health care centers were included. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed and living habits, medical history, results of diagnostic imaging and anthropometric and biochemical features were noted in a standardized form. The risk of steatosis and advanced fibrosis was assessed using commonly used algorithms (FLI, HSI, NAFLD-LFS, NAFLD ridge score, FIB-4 and NFS). RESULTS: In total 350 patients were included. Diagnostic imaging had been performed in 132 patients and of these, 34 (26%) had steatosis, which was not noted in the medical records in 16 (47%) patients. One patient with steatosis had been referred to a hepatologist. Of assessable patients, 71-97% had a high to intermediate risk of steatosis and 29-65% had an intermediate to high risk of advanced fibrosis according to the algorithms used. CONCLUSION: This study indicates a high prevalence of NAFLD among T2DM patients in Swedish primary care. Patients with known NAFLD were followed up to a very low extent. Using fibrosis algorithms in primary health care would result in many patients needing further assessment in secondary care.

A pilot study of golexanolone, a new GABA-A receptor-modulating steroid antagonist, in patients with covert hepatic encephalopathy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Golexanolone is a novel small molecule GABA-A receptor-modulating steroid antagonist under development for the treatment of cognitive and vigilance disorders caused by allosteric over-activation of GABA-A receptors by neurosteroids. It restored spatial learning and motor coordination in animal models of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and mitigated the effects of intravenous allopregnanolone in healthy adults in a dose-dependent fashion. Herein, we report data on the safety, pharmacokinetics (PK) and efficacy of golexanolone in adult patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Following single/multiple ascending dose studies, adults with Child-Pugh A/B cirrhosis and abnormal continuous reaction time (CRT) on screening were randomized to 3 weeks' dosing with golexanolone (10, 40 or 80 mg BID) or placebo. CRT, psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES), animal naming test (ANT), Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS) and electroencephalogram (mean dominant frequency [MDF]; delta+theta/alpha+beta ratio [DT/AB]) were obtained at baseline, 10, and 21 days. RESULTS: Golexanolone exhibited satisfactory safety and PK. Baseline characteristics were similar between the 12 and 33 patients randomized to placebo or golexanolone, respectively. By prespecified analyses, golexanolone was associated with directionally favourable changes vs. placebo in ESS (p = 0.047), MDF (p = 0.142) and DT/AB (p = 0.021). All patients also showed directionally favourable changes in CRT, PHES and ANT, but with no statistical difference between golexanolone and placebo. Post hoc analyses taking into account the variability and improvement in CRT, PHES and ANT observed between screening and baseline suggested an efficacy signal by cognitive measures as well. CONCLUSION: Golexanolone was well tolerated and associated with improvement in cognitive performance. These results implicate GABA-A receptor-modulating neurosteroids in the pathogenesis of HE and support the therapeutic potential of golexanolone. LAY SUMMARY: Many patients with cirrhosis experience subtle but disabling cognitive problems, including sleepiness and poor attention span, that impair their ability to be gainfully employed or carry out activities of daily living. This pilot study tested the hypothesis that these problems with cognition, for which there is no approved treatment, might be improved by an experimental drug, golexanolone, designed to normalize the function of receptors which inhibit brain function. The results of this study suggest that golexanolone is well tolerated and may improve cognition, as reflected by measures of sleepiness, attention span and brain wave activity, paving the way for future larger studies of this promising experimental drug. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT 2016-003651-30.

Serum levels of endotrophin are associated with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are no currently available biomarkers that can accurately indicate the presence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We investigated the association between endotrophin, a cleavage product of collagen type 6α3, and disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: We measured serum endotrophin levels in 211 patients with NAFLD and nine healthy controls. Liver biopsy data was available for 141 (67%) of the patients. Associations between endotrophin and the presence of NASH and advanced fibrosis were investigated alone and in combination with standard clinical parameters using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 211 patients were enrolled in this study, consisting of 108 (51%) men and 103 (49%) women with a mean age of 55.6 years. 58 (27%) of the patients had advanced fibrosis. Of those with biopsy data, 87 (62%) had NASH. Serum levels of endotrophin were significantly higher in patients with NAFLD than those in healthy controls (37[±12] vs. 17[±7] ng/mL, p<.001). Serum levels of endotrophin were also significantly higher in patients with NASH than in those without NASH (40[±12] vs. 32[±13] ng/mL, p<.001). A model using age, sex, body mass index and levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), glucose and endotrophin effectively predicted the presence of NASH in a derivation (AUROC 0.83, 95%CI = 0.74-0.92) and validation cohort (AUROC 0.71, 95%CI = 0.54-0.88). There was no significant association between serum levels of endotrophin and advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that serum endotrophin could be a valuable biomarker for diagnosing NASH, but not for detecting advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

Evaluating the prevalence and severity of NAFLD in primary care: the EPSONIP study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects 20-30% of the general adult population. NAFLD patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at an increased risk of advanced fibrosis, which puts them at risk of cardiovascular complications, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver failure. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessing hepatic fibrosis. However, its utility is inherently limited. Consequently, the prevalence and characteristics of T2DM patients with advanced fibrosis are unknown. Therefore, the purpose of the current study is to evaluate the prevalence and severity of NAFLD in patients with T2DM by recruiting participants from primary care, using the latest imaging modalities, to collect a cohort of well phenotyped patients. METHODS: We will prospectively recruit 400 patients with T2DM using biomarkers to assess their status. Specifically, we will evaluate liver fat content using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); hepatic fibrosis using MR elastography and vibration-controlled transient elastography; muscle composition and body fat distribution using water-fat separated whole body MRI; and cardiac function, structure, and tissue characteristics, using cardiovascular MRI. DISCUSSION: We expect that the study will uncover potential mechanisms of advanced hepatic fibrosis in NAFLD and T2DM and equip the clinician with better diagnostic tools for the care of T2DM patients with NAFLD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT03864510. Registered 6 March 2019, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03864510 .

Genome-wide association study of non-alcoholic fatty liver and steatohepatitis in a histologically characterised cohort☆.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genetic factors associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remain incompletely understood. To date, most genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have adopted radiologically assessed hepatic triglyceride content as the reference phenotype and so cannot address steatohepatitis or fibrosis. We describe a GWAS encompassing the full spectrum of histologically characterised NAFLD. METHODS: The GWAS involved 1,483 European NAFLD cases and 17,781 genetically matched controls. A replication cohort of 559 NAFLD cases and 945 controls was genotyped to confirm signals showing genome-wide or close to genome-wide significance. RESULTS: Case-control analysis identified signals showing p values ≤5 × 10-8 at 4 locations (chromosome [chr] 2 GCKR/C2ORF16; chr4 HSD17B13; chr19 TM6SF2; chr22 PNPLA3) together with 2 other signals with p <1 × 10-7 (chr1 near LEPR and chr8 near IDO2/TC1). Case-only analysis of quantitative traits showed that the PNPLA3 signal (rs738409) had genome-wide significance for steatosis, fibrosis and NAFLD activity score and a new signal (PYGO1 rs62021874) had close to genome-wide significance for steatosis (p = 8.2 × 10-8). Subgroup case-control analysis for NASH confirmed the PNPLA3 signal. The chr1 LEPR single nucleotide polymorphism also showed genome-wide significance for this phenotype. Considering the subgroup with advanced fibrosis (≥F3), the signals on chr2, chr19 and chr22 maintained their genome-wide significance. Except for GCKR/C2ORF16, the genome-wide significance signals were replicated. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms PNPLA3 as a risk factor for the full histological spectrum of NAFLD at genome-wide significance levels, with important contributions from TM6SF2 and HSD17B13. PYGO1 is a novel steatosis modifier, suggesting that Wnt signalling pathways may be relevant in NAFLD pathogenesis. LAY SUMMARY: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is a common disease where excessive fat accumulates in the liver and may result in cirrhosis. To understand who is at risk of developing this disease and suffering liver damage, we undertook a genetic study to compare the genetic profiles of people suffering from fatty liver disease with genetic profiles seen in the general population. We found that particular sequences in 4 different areas of the human genome were seen at different frequencies in the fatty liver disease cases. These sequences may help predict an individual's risk of developing advanced disease. Some genes where these sequences are located may also be good targets for future drug treatments.

Health Care Costs of Patients With Biopsy-Confirmed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Are Nearly Twice Those of Matched Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Data on healthcare resource use and costs associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in clinical practice are lacking. We compared real-life healthcare costs of patients with NAFLD to matched controls. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD in Sweden from 1971 through 2009. Each patient was matched for age, sex, and county of residence with 10 persons from the general population (controls). We retrieved all healthcare contacts through Dec 31, 2014 from national registers. Unit costs were assigned to arrive at a total healthcare cost (in USD [$]) per study subject. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 19.9 years, we recorded a mean of 0.27 hospitalizations per year for patients with NAFLD vs 0.16 for controls (P < .001). This corresponded to an incremental cost of $635 per year for patients with NAFLD. Patients with NAFLD had a higher mean use of outpatient care visits: 1.46 contacts per year compared with 0.86 per year in controls, corresponding to $255 in additional costs (P < .001). Total costs incurred by patients with stage 3-4 fibrosis were higher than by patients with fibrosis stage 0-2 (mean annual costs, $4397 vs $629). Cumulative costs were higher for all stages of fibrosis compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare costs are nearly twice as high in patients with NAFLD than in matched controls. This is mostly attributable to higher costs for hospitalizations, but also to more outpatient visits. Patients with advanced fibrosis had the highest costs.

The amount of liver fat predicts mortality and development of type 2 diabetes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor for development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to evaluate whether conventional histological grading of steatosis and accurate quantification of fat content in liver biopsies using stereological point counting (SPC) can predict mortality and future development of T2DM in NAFLD patients. METHODS: 129 patients with biopsy proven NAFLD, enrolled between 1988 and 1992, were re-evaluated on two occasions, after 13.7 (±1.5) and 23.2 (±6.8) years. In patients accepting to undergo the procedure, repeat liver biopsies were performed on each follow-up and were evaluated with conventional histopathological methodology and SPC. RESULTS: Of the 106 patients without T2DM at baseline, 66 (62%) developed T2DM during a mean follow-up of 23.2 (± 6.8) years. Steatosis grade and liver fat measured with SPC independently (adjusted for age, BMI, fibrosis stage) predicted development of T2DM with an aHR of 1.60 per grade and 1.03 for each SPC percentage increase respectively. Overall mortality and development of T2DM was more common in patients with grade 3 steatosis compared to lower grades of steatosis. Liver fat measured with SPC was significant for overall mortality (aHR 1.04). In patients that underwent repeat biopsy, reduction in liver fat measured with SPC was associated with decreased risk of developing T2DM (aHR 0.91 for each SPC percentage decrease). CONCLUSION: Steatosis grade and liver fat measured with SPC predict mortality and the risk of developing T2DM in NAFLD. Reduction in liver fat decreases the risk of developing T2DM.