24-Hour Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion and Cardiovascular Risk.

BACKGROUND: The relation between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease remains controversial, owing in part to inaccurate assessment of sodium intake. Assessing 24-hour urinary excretion over a period of multiple days is considered to be an accurate method. METHODS: We included individual-participant data from six prospective cohorts of generally healthy adults; sodium and potassium excretion was assessed with the use of at least two 24-hour urine samples per participant. The primary outcome was a cardiovascular event (coronary revascularization or fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke). We analyzed each cohort using consistent methods and combined the results using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 10,709 participants, who had a mean (±SD) age of 51.5±12.6 years and of whom 54.2% were women, 571 cardiovascular events were ascertained during a median study follow-up of 8.8 years (incidence rate, 5.9 per 1000 person-years). The median 24-hour urinary sodium excretion was 3270 mg (10th to 90th percentile, 2099 to 4899). Higher sodium excretion, lower potassium excretion, and a higher sodium-to-potassium ratio were all associated with a higher cardiovascular risk in analyses that were controlled for confounding factors (P≤0.005 for all comparisons). In analyses that compared quartile 4 of the urinary biomarker (highest) with quartile 1 (lowest), the hazard ratios were 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 2.14) for sodium excretion, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.91) for potassium excretion, and 1.62 (95% CI, 1.25 to 2.10) for the sodium-to-potassium ratio. Each daily increment of 1000 mg in sodium excretion was associated with an 18% increase in cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.29), and each daily increment of 1000 mg in potassium excretion was associated with an 18% decrease in risk (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Higher sodium and lower potassium intakes, as measured in multiple 24-hour urine samples, were associated in a dose-response manner with a higher cardiovascular risk. These findings may support reducing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake from current levels. (Funded by the American Heart Association and the National Institutes of Health.).

Participation rate and yield of two home-based screening methods to detect increased albuminuria in the general population in the Netherlands (THOMAS): a prospective, randomised, open-label implementation study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a rising global prevalence and is expected to become the fifth leading cause of death by 2030. Increased albuminuria defines the early stages of CKD and is among the strongest risk factors for progressive CKD and cardiovascular disease. The value of population screening for albuminuria to detect CKD in an early phase has yet to be studied. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of two home-based albuminuria population screening methods. METHODS: Towards Home-based Albuminuria Screening (THOMAS) was a prospective, randomised, open-label implementation study that invited Dutch adults aged 45-80 years for albuminuria screening. Individuals were randomly assigned (1:1) to screening by applying either a urine collection device (UCD) that was sent by post to a central laboratory for measurement of the albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) by immunoturbidimetry or to screening via a smartphone application that measures the ACR with a dipstick method at home. Randomisation was done with a four-block method via a web-based system and was stratified by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. If two or more individuals per household were invited to participate, these individuals were randomly assigned to the same group. In case of confirmed increased albuminuria at home, participants were invited for an elaborate screening in a regional hospital (Amphia Hospital, Breda, Netherlands) for CKD and cardiovascular risk factors. When abnormalities were found, participants were referred to their general practitioner for treatment. The primary outcomes were the participation rate and yield of the home-based screening and elaborate screening. Participation rate was assessed in the intention-to-screen population (ie, all participants who were invited for the home-based screening or elaborate screening). Yield was assessed in the per-protocol population (ie, all individuals who participated in the home-based screening or elaborate screening). An exploratory analysis assessed the sensitivity and specificity of both home-based screening methods. To this end, an additional quantitative ACR test was performed among people participating in the elaborate screening, and a substudy was performed among participants with a first negative home-based screening test, who were invited for an additional test. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04295889. FINDINGS: 15 074 participants were enrolled between Nov 14, 2019, and March 19, 2021. 7552 (50·1%) were randomly assigned to home-based albuminuria screening by the UCD method and 7522 (49·9%) were assigned to albuminuria screening by the smartphone application method. The participation rate of the home-based screening was 4484 (59·4% [95% CI 58·3-60·5]) of the 7552 invited individuals for the UCD method and 3336 (44·3% [43·2-45·5]) of 7522 invited individuals for the smartphone application method (p<0·0001). Increased ACR was confirmed by home-based testing in 150 (3·3% [95% CI 2·9-3·9]) of 4484 individuals for the UCD method and 171 (5·1% [4·4-5·9]) of 3336 indivduals for the smartphone application method. 124 (82·7% [95% CI 75·8-87·9]) of 150 individuals assigned to the UCD method and 142 (83·0% [76·7-87·9]) of 171 participants assigned to the smartphone application method attended the elaborate screening. Sensitivity to detect increased ACR was 96·6% (95% CI 91·5-99·1) for the UCD method and 98·1% (89·9-99·9) for the smartphone application method, and specificity was 97·3% (94·7-98·8) for the UCD method and 67·9% (62·0-73·3) for the smartphone application method, indicating that the test characteristics of only the UCD method were sufficient for screening. Albuminuria, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and decreased kidney function were newly diagnosed in 77 (62·1%), 44 (35·5%), 30 (24·2%), and 27 (21·8%) of 124 participants for the UCD method, respectively. Of the 124 participants assigned to the UCD method who completed elaborate screening, 111 (89·5%) were referred to their general practitioner for treatment because of newly diagnosed CKD or cardiovascular disease risk factors or known risk factors outside the target range. INTERPRETATION: Home-based screening of the general population for increased ACR using a UCD had a high participation rate and correctly identified individuals with increased albuminuria and yet unknown or known but outside target range CKD and cardiovascular risk factors. By contrast, the smartphone application method had a lower at-home participation rate than the UCD method and the test specificity was too low to accurately assess individuals for risk factors during the elaborate screening. The UCD screening strategy could allow for an early start of treatment to prevent progressive kidney function loss and cardiovascular disease in patients with CKD. FUNDING: Dutch Kidney Foundation, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Urinary albumin excretion and cancer risk: the PREVEND cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is believed to be associated with an increased risk for cancer, especially urinary tract cancer. However, previous studies predominantly focused on the association of decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with cancer. In this study, we investigated the association of albuminuria with cancer incidence, adjusted for eGFR. METHODS: We included 8490 subjects in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) observational study. Urinary albumin excretion (UAE) was measured in two 24-hour urine specimens at baseline. Primary outcomes were the incidence of overall and urinary tract cancer. Secondary outcomes were the incidence of other site-specific cancers, and mortality due to overall, urinary tract, and other site-specific cancers. RESULTS: Median baseline UAE was 9.4 (IQR, 6.3-17.8) mg/24 h. During a median follow-up of 17.7 years, 1341 subjects developed cancer (of which 177 were urinary tract cancers). After multivariable adjustment including eGFR, every doubling of UAE was associated with a 6% (hazard ratios (HR), 1.06, 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.02-1.10), and 14% (HR, 1.14, 95% CI, 1.04-1.24) higher risk of overall and urinary tract cancer incidence, respectively. Except for lung and hematological cancer, no associations were found between UAE and the incidence of other site-specific cancer. Doubling of UAE was also associated with a higher risk of mortality due to overall and lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Higher albuminuria is associated with a higher incidence of overall, urinary tract, lung, and hematological cancer, and with a higher risk of mortality due to overall and lung cancers, independent of baseline eGFR.

Plasma Calprotectin Levels Associate with Suspected Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease and All-Cause Mortality in the General Population.

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is characterized by hepatic steatosis, metabolic dysregulation, and neutrophilic inflammation. In this study, we hypothesized that systemic levels of plasma calprotectin, as a biomarker of neutrophilic inflammation, may be associated with suspected MAFLD. Plasma calprotectin levels were measured in subjects (n = 5446) participating in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort study. Suspected MAFLD was defined by the fatty liver index (FLI ≥ 60) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI ≥ 36) as proxies. Plasma calprotectin levels were significantly higher in subjects with FLI ≥ 60 (0.57 [IQR: 0.42−0.79] mg/L, n = 1592) (p < 0.001) compared to subjects with FLI < 60 (0.46 [0.34−0.65] mg/L, n = 3854). Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with suspected MAFLD (FLI ≥ 60), even after adjustment for potential confounding factors, including current smoking, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), hs-CRP, eGFR, and total cholesterol levels (OR 1.19 [95% CI: 1.06−1.33], p = 0.003). Interaction analyses revealed significant effect modifications for the association between plasma calprotectin and suspected MAFLD by BMI (p < 0.001) and hypertension (p = 0.003), with the strongest associations in subjects with normal BMI and without hypertension. Prospectively, plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with all-cause mortality after adjustment for potential confounding factors, particularly in subjects without suspected MAFLD (FLI < 60) (hazard ratio (HR) per doubling: 1.34 (1.05−1.72), p < 0.05). In conclusion, higher plasma calprotectin levels are associated with suspected MAFLD and with the risk of all-cause mortality, the latter especially in subjects without suspected MAFLD.

Combined low vitamin D and K status amplifies mortality risk: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association of both plasma vitamin D and K concentrations with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events in the general population. METHODS: We studied 4742 participants of the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-Stage Disease (PREVEND) Study. At baseline, vitamin D and K status was determined by measurement of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and dephosphorylated uncarboxylated matrix Gla protein (dp-ucMGP), respectively. Patients were categorized into: 25(OH)D < 50 or ≥ 50 nmol/L and dp-ucMGP < 361 or ≥ 361 pmol/L with 25(OH)D > 75 nmol/L and dp-ucMGP < 361 pmol/L as reference. Cause of death was coded according to International Classification of Diseases 9&10 codes from the 2001-2003 examination until date of death/event or censoring date (January 1st, 2017). RESULTS: Mean age was 52.6 ± 11.9 years and 2513 (53%) were female. During a median of 14.2 year follow-up, 620 participants died of which 142 were due to cardiovascular causes. Combined low vitamin D and K status was present in 970 participants (20%) and was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality compared to high vitamin D and high vitamin K status group (n = 1424) after adjusting for potential confounders: hazard ratio 1.46 (95% confidence intervals 1.12-1.90). We observed similar trends, albeit non-significant for cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events: 1.42 (0.79-2.55), 1.28 (0.93-1.77), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Combined low vitamin D and K status are associated with increased all-cause mortality risk and possibly with cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events compared with adequate vitamin D and K status. Future studies should investigate the effect of combined vitamin D and K supplementation on clinical outcomes.

Serum free thiols predict cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in the general population: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Serum free thiols (R-SH, sulfhydryl groups) reliably reflect systemic oxidative stress. Since serum free thiols are rapidly oxidized by reactive species, systemic oxidative stress is generally associated with reduced serum free thiol levels. Free thiols associate with favorable disease outcomes in many patient cohorts, and the current hypothesis is that oxidative stress might also play an important role in cardiovascular disease. In this study, we aimed to establish the role of serum free thiols in the general population by investigating their relationship with the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Participants (n = 5955) of the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort study from the general population were included. At baseline, serum levels of free thiols were quantified and adjusted to total protein levels. Protein-adjusted serum free thiol levels were studied for their associations with clinical and biochemical parameters, as well as with the risk of CV events and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The mean protein-adjusted serum free thiol level was 5.05 ± 1.02 µmol/g of protein. Protein-adjusted serum free thiols significantly predicted the risk of CV events, even after adjustment for potential confounding factors (hazard ratio [HR] per doubling 0.68 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-1.00], P = 0.048). Similarly, protein-adjusted serum free thiols were significantly predictive of the risk of all-cause mortality (HR per doubling 0.66 [95% CI 0.44-1.00], P = 0.050). Stratified analyses revealed lower HRs for subjects with a lower body mass index (BMI), without hypertension, and without diabetes. Conversely, HRs were lower in subjects with albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based cohort study, serum free thiols significantly predicted the risk of CV events and all-cause mortality. Our results highlight the potential significance and clinical applicability of serum free thiols since they are amendable to therapeutic intervention.

Educational level and risk of chronic kidney disease: longitudinal data from the PREVEND study.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal association between low education and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its underlying mechanisms is poorly characterized. We therefore examined the association of low education with incident CKD and change in kidney function, and explored potential mediators of this association. METHODS: We analysed data on 6078 participants from the community-based Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study. Educational level was categorized into low, medium and high (< secondary, secondary/equivalent, > secondary schooling, respectively). Kidney function was assessed by estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by serum creatinine and cystatin C at five examinations during ∼11 years of follow-up. Incident CKD was defined as new-onset eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and/or urinary albumin ≥30 mg/24 h in those free of CKD at baseline. We estimated main effects with Cox regression and linear mixed models. In exploratory causal mediation analyses, we examined mediation by several potential risk factors. RESULTS: Incident CKD was observed in 861 (17%) participants. Lower education was associated with higher rates of incident CKD [low versus high education; hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) 1.25 (1.05-1.48), Ptrend = 0.009] and accelerated eGFR decline [B (95% CI) -0.15 (-0.21 to -0.09) mL/min/1.73 m2/year, Ptrend < 0.001]. The association between education and incident CKD was mediated by smoking, potassium excretion, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and hypertension. Analysis on annual eGFR change in addition suggested mediation by magnesium excretion, protein intake and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, we observed an inverse association of educational level with CKD. Diabetes and the modifiable risk factors smoking, poor diet, BMI, WHR and hypertension are suggested to underlie this association. These findings provide support for targeted preventive policies to reduce socioeconomic disparities in kidney disease.

COVID-19-related mortality in kidney transplant and dialysis patients: results of the ERACODA collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Patients on kidney replacement therapy comprise a vulnerable population and may be at increased risk of death from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Currently, only limited data are available on outcomes in this patient population. METHODS: We set up the ERACODA (European Renal Association COVID-19 Database) database, which is specifically designed to prospectively collect detailed data on kidney transplant and dialysis patients with COVID-19. For this analysis, patients were included who presented between 1 February and 1 May 2020 and had complete information available on the primary outcome parameter, 28-day mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1073 patients enrolled, 305 (28%) were kidney transplant and 768 (72%) dialysis patients with a mean age of 60 ± 13 and 67 ± 14 years, respectively. The 28-day probability of death was 21.3% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 14.3-30.2%] in kidney transplant and 25.0% (95% CI 20.2-30.0%) in dialysis patients. Mortality was primarily associated with advanced age in kidney transplant patients, and with age and frailty in dialysis patients. After adjusting for sex, age and frailty, in-hospital mortality did not significantly differ between transplant and dialysis patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% CI 0.59-1.10, P = 0.18]. In the subset of dialysis patients who were a candidate for transplantation (n = 148), 8 patients died within 28 days, as compared with 7 deaths in 23 patients who underwent a kidney transplantation <1 year before presentation (HR adjusted for sex, age and frailty 0.20, 95% CI 0.07-0.56, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The 28-day case-fatality rate is high in patients on kidney replacement therapy with COVID-19 and is primarily driven by the risk factors age and frailty. Furthermore, in the first year after kidney transplantation, patients may be at increased risk of COVID-19-related mortality as compared with dialysis patients on the waiting list for transplantation. This information is important in guiding clinical decision-making, and for informing the public and healthcare authorities on the COVID-19-related mortality risk in kidney transplant and dialysis patients.

Circulating total bilirubin and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the PREVEND study: observational findings and a Mendelian randomization study.

The relationship between circulating total bilirubin and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is uncertain. We aimed to assess the association of total bilirubin with the risk of new-onset NAFLD and investigate any causal relevance to the association using a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Plasma total bilirubin levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND prospective study of 3824 participants (aged 28-75 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease or NAFLD. Incident NAFLD was estimated using the biomarker-based algorithms, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI). Odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals) for NAFLD were assessed. The genetic variant rs6742078 located in the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus was used as an instrumental variable. Participants were followed up for a mean duration of 4.2 years. The multivariable adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by FLI (434 cases) was 0.82 (0.73-0.92; p = 0.001) per 1 standard deviation (SD) change in loge total bilirubin. The corresponding adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by HSI (452 cases) was 0.87 (0.78-0.97; p = 0.012). The rs6742078 variant explained 20% of bilirubin variation. The ORs (95% CIs) for a 1 SD genetically elevated total bilirubin level was 0.98 (0.69-1.38; p = 0.900) for FLI and 1.14 (0.81-1.59; p = 0.451) for HSI. Elevated levels of total bilirubin were not causally associated with decreased risk of NAFLD based on MR analysis. The observational association may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, due to low statistical power, larger-scale investigations are necessary to draw definitive conclusions.

Heart Failure Stimulates Tumor Growth by Circulating Factors.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) survival has improved, and nowadays, many patients with HF die of noncardiac causes, including cancer. Our aim was to investigate whether a causal relationship exists between HF and the development of cancer. METHODS: HF was induced by inflicting large anterior myocardial infarction in APCmin mice, which are prone to developing precancerous intestinal tumors, and tumor growth was measured. In addition, to rule out hemodynamic impairment, a heterotopic heart transplantation model was used in which an infarcted or sham-operated heart was transplanted into a recipient mouse while the native heart was left in situ. After 6 weeks, tumor number, volume, and proliferation were quantified. Candidate secreted proteins were selected because they were previously associated both with (colon) tumor growth and with myocardial production in post-myocardial infarction proteomic studies. Myocardial gene expression levels of these selected candidates were analyzed, as well as their proliferative effects on HT-29 (colon cancer) cells. We validated these candidates by measuring them in plasma of healthy subjects and patients with HF. Finally, we associated the relation between cardiac specific and inflammatory biomarkers and new-onset cancer in a large, prospective general population cohort. RESULTS: The presence of failing hearts, both native and heterotopically transplanted, resulted in significantly increased intestinal tumor load of 2.4-fold in APCmin mice (all P<0.0001). The severity of left ventricular dysfunction and fibrotic scar strongly correlated with tumor growth ( P=0.002 and P=0.016, respectively). We identified several proteins (including serpinA3 and A1, fibronectin, ceruloplasmin, and paraoxonase 1) that were elevated in human patients with chronic HF (n=101) compared with healthy subjects (n=180; P<0.001). Functionally, serpinA3 resulted in marked proliferation effects in human colon cancer (HT-29) cells, associated with Akt-S6 phosphorylation. Finally, elevated cardiac and inflammation biomarkers in apparently healthy humans (n=8319) were predictive of new-onset cancer (n=1124) independently of risk factors for cancer (age, smoking status, and body mass index). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the presence of HF is associated with enhanced tumor growth and that this is independent of hemodynamic impairment and could be caused by cardiac excreted factors. A diagnosis of HF may therefore be considered a risk factor for incident cancer.

Urinary Ethyl Glucuronide Can Be Used as a Biomarker of Habitual Alcohol Consumption in the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is a frequently studied risk factor for chronic diseases, but many studies are hampered by self-report of alcohol consumption. The urinary metabolite ethyl glucuronide (EtG), reflecting alcohol consumption during the past 72 h, is a promising objective marker, but population data are lacking. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the reliability of EtG as a marker for habitual alcohol consumption compared with self-report and other biomarkers in the general population. METHODS: Among 6211 participants in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort, EtG concentrations were measured in 24-h urine samples. EtG was considered positive when concentrations were ≥100 ng/mL. Habitual alcohol consumption was self-reported by questionnaire (categories: no/almost never, 1-4 units per month, 2-7 units per week, 1-3 units per day or ≥4 units per day). Plasma HDL cholesterol concentration, erythrocyte mean corpuscular volume (MCV), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) were determined as indirect biomarkers of alcohol consumption. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and proportions of agreement between reported consumption and EtG were calculated. To test the agreement of EtG concentration and alcohol consumption in categories, linear regression analysis was performed. In addition, the association between EtG concentrations and indirect biomarkers was analyzed. RESULTS: Mean age was 53.7 y, and 52.9% of participants men. Of the self-reported abstainers, 92.3% had an EtG concentration <100 ng/mL. Sensitivity was 66.3%, positive predictive value was 96.3%, and negative predictive value was 47.4%. The proportion of positive agreement was 78.5%, and the proportion of negative agreement was 62.7%. EtG concentrations were linearly associated with higher categories of alcohol consumption (P-trend < 0.001), adjusted for age, sex, and renal function. EtG was positively related to MCV, HDL cholesterol, and GGT but not to AST and ALT concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that urinary EtG is in reasonable agreement with self-reported alcohol consumption and therefore can be used as an objective marker of habitual alcohol consumption in the general population.

Proenkephalin and risk of developing chronic kidney disease: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Proenkephalin (pro-ENK) was recently found to be associated with low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The association of pro-ENK with urinary albumin excretion (UAE), another marker for chronic kidney disease (CKD), has not been investigated. We examined the association of pro-ENK with eGFR and UAE as markers of CKD. METHODS: We included 4375 subjects of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study. CKDeGFR was defined as development of eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and CKDUAE as albuminuria >30 mg/24 h. RESULTS: Baseline median pro-ENK was 52.2 (IQR: 44.9-60.5) pmol/L. After a median follow-up of 8.4 (IQR: 7.9-8.9) years, 183 subjects developed CKDeGFR and 371 developed CKDUAE. The association of pro-ENK with CKDeGFR was modified by sex (Pinteraction < 0.1), in such a way that after adjustment, the association only remained significant in men (adjusted hazard ratio per SD increase in 10log-transformed pro-ENK, 1.65; 95% CI: 1.15-2.36) and not in women (0.83; 0.58-1.20). No significant association was observed between pro-ENK and CKDUAE risk (0.83; 0.58-1.20). CONCLUSIONS: High pro-ENK is associated with increased risk of CKDeGFR in men, but not in women. No association of pro-ENK with CKDUAE was observed. These results should be interpreted with caution, since residual confounding and potential overfitting of models could have influenced the results.

Plasma N-terminal Prosomatostatin and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in a Prospective Observational Cohort: the PREVEND Study.

BACKGROUND: Somatostatin is a component of the well-known insulin-like growth factor-1/growth hormone (GH) longevity axis. There is observational evidence that increased GH is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to investigate the potential association of plasma N-terminal fragment prosomatostatin (NT-proSST) with incident CVD and all-cause mortality in apparently healthy adults. METHODS: We studied 8134 participants without history of CVD (aged 28-75 years; women, 52.6%) from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study in Groningen, the Netherlands. Plasma NT-proSST was measured in baseline samples. Outcomes were incidence of CVD and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses, NT-proSST [mean (SD), 384.0 (169.3) pmol/L] was positively associated with male sex and age (both P < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 10.5 (Q1-Q3: 9.9-10.8) years, 708 (8.7%) participants developed CVD and 517 (6.4%) participants died. In univariable analyses, NT-proSST was associated with an increased risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality (both P < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, these associations were independent of the Framingham risk factors, with hazard ratios (95% CI) per doubling of NT-proSST of 1.17 (1.03-1.34; P = 0.02) for incident CVD and of 1.28 (1.09-1.49; P = 0.002) for all-cause mortality. Addition of NT-proSST to the updated Framingham Risk Score improved reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement (P < 0.001); net reclassification improvement was 2.5% (P = 0.04)). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma NT-proSST is positively associated with increased risk of future CVD and all-cause mortality, partly independent of traditional CVD risk factors. Further research is needed to address the nature of associations.

Low potassium excretion but not high sodium excretion is associated with increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease.

It is unclear whether sodium and potassium intake is relevant to the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. Our aim was to examine the associations of urinary sodium (UNaV) and potassium excretion (UKV), as estimates of intake, with risk of developing CKD in a population-based cohort. We studied 5315 individuals free of CKD at baseline of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study, a prospective, population-based cohort of Dutch men and women aged 28 to 75 years. UNaV and UKV were measured in two 24-hour urine specimens at baseline (1997-1998) and midway during follow-up (2001-2003). CKD was defined as de novo development of eGFR under 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) or albuminuria over 30 mg/24 hours, or both. Baseline UNaV and UKV were 135 mmol/24 hours (interquartile range: 106-169 mmol/24 hours) and 70 mmol/24 hours (interquartile range, 57-85 mmol/24 hours), respectively. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years, 872 patients developed CKD. After multivariable adjustment for important covariables, no association was observed between UNaV and risk of CKD (hazard ratio per 50 mmol/24 hours [1 SD] increment, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-1.06). Each 21 mmol/24 hours (1 SD) decrement in UKV was significantly associated with a 16% higher risk of developing CKD (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.28). Thus, low UKV, and not high UNaV, was associated with an increased risk of developing CKD in a population-based cohort with normal kidney function.

An increase in albuminuria is associated with a higher incidence of malignancies.

Background: A single albuminuria measurement is reported to be an independent predictor of cancer risk. Whether change in albuminuria is also independently associated with cancer is not known. Methods: We included 64 303 subjects of the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project without a history of cancer and with at least two urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) tests up to 2 years apart. Albuminuria changes were quantified by the fold-change in ACR over 2 years, and stratified into the absence of clinically elevated albuminuria (i.e. never), albuminuria that remained constant, and albuminuria that increased or decreased. The primary outcome was overall cancer incidence. Secondary outcomes were site-specific cancer incidences. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.7 (interquartile range 3.6-3.7) years, 5126 subjects developed de novo cancer. After multivariable adjustment including baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate and baseline ACR, subjects with increasing ACR over 2 years had a 19% (hazard ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.31) higher risk of overall cancer compared with those who never had clinically elevated ACR. No association with cancer risk was seen in the groups with decreasing or constant ACR. Regarding site-specific cancer risks, subjects with increasing ACR or constant ACR had a higher risk of developing urinary tract and lung cancer. No other associations between 2-year ACR changes and site-specific cancers were found. Conclusions: Increases in albuminuria over a 2-year period are associated with a higher risk of developing overall, urinary tract and lung cancer, independent of baseline kidney function and albuminuria. These data add important weight to the link that exists between albuminuria and cancer incidence.

Cost-effectiveness of home-based screening of the general population for albuminuria to prevent progression of cardiovascular and kidney disease.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is often detected late, leading to substantial health loss and high treatment costs. Screening the general population for albuminuria identifies individuals at high risk of kidney events and cardiovascular disease (CVD) who may benefit from early start of preventive interventions. Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of albuminuria population screening were inconclusive, but were based on survey or cohort data rather than an implementation study, modelled screening as performed by general practitioners rather than home-based screening, and often included only benefits with respect to kidney events. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of home-based general population screening for increased albuminuria based on real-world data obtained from a prospective implementation study taking into account prevention of CKD as well as CVD events. Methods: We developed an individual-level simulation model to compare home-based screening using a urine collection device with usual care (no home-based screening) in individuals of the general population aged 45-80, based on the THOMAS study (Towards HOMe-based Albuminuria Screening). Cost-effectiveness was assessed from the Dutch healthcare perspective with a lifetime horizon. The costs of the screening process and benefits of preventing CKD progression (dialysis and kidney transplantation) and CVD events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, fatal CVD event) were reflected. Albuminuria detection led to treatment of identified risk factors. The model subsequently simulated CKD progression, the occurrence of CVD events, and death. The risks of experiencing CVD events were calculated using the SCORE2 CKD risk prediction model and individual-level data from the THOMAS study. Relative treatment effectiveness, quality of life scores, resource use, and cost inputs were obtained from literature. Model outcomes were the number of CKD and CVD-related events, total costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained by screening versus usual care. All results were obtained through probabilistic analysis. Findings: The absolute difference between screening versus usual care in lifetime probability of dialysis, kidney transplantation, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and fatal CVD events were 0.2%, 0.05%, 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.2%, respectively. This led to relative decreases compared to usual care in lifetime incidence of these events of 10.7%, 11.1%, 5.1%, 4.1%, and 1.6%, respectively. The incremental costs and QALYs of screening were €1607 and 0.17 QALY, respectively, which led to a corresponding ICER of €9225/QALY. The probability of screening being cost-effective for the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold for preventive population screening of €20,000/QALY was 95.0%. Implementing the screening in the subgroup of 45-64 years old reduced the ICER (€7946/QALY), whereas implementing screening in the subgroup of 65-80 years old increased the ICER (€10,310/QALY). A scenario analysis assuming treatment optimization in all individuals with newly diagnosed risk factors or known risk factors not within target range reduced the ICER to €7083/QALY, resulting from the incremental costs and QALY gain of €2145 and 0.30, respectively. Interpretation: Home-based screening for increased albuminuria to prevent CVD and CKD events is likely cost-effective. More health benefits can be obtained by screening younger individuals and better optimization of care in individuals identified with newly diagnosed or known risk factors outside target range. Funding: Dutch Kidney Foundation, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Trajectories of renal biomarkers and new-onset heart failure in the general population: Findings from the PREVEND study.

AIMS: Renal dysfunction is one of the most critical risk factors for developing heart failure (HF). However, the association between repeated measures of renal function and incident HF remains unclear. Therefore, this study investigated the longitudinal trajectories of urinary albumin excretion (UAE) and serum creatinine and their association with new-onset HF and all-cause mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory analysis, we estimated trajectories of UAE and serum creatinine in 6881 participants from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study and their association with new-onset HF and all-cause death during the 11-years of follow-up. Most participants had stable low UAE or serum creatinine. Participants with persistently higher UAE or serum creatinine were older, more often men, and more often had comorbidities, such as diabetes, a previous myocardial infarction or dyslipidaemia. Participants with persistently high UAE had a higher risk of new-onset HF or all-cause mortality, whereas stable serum creatinine trajectories showed a linear association for new-onset HF and no association with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Our population-based study identified different but often stable longitudinal patterns of UAE and serum creatinine. Patients with persistently worse renal function, such as higher UAE or serum creatinine, were at a higher risk of HF or mortality.