Data-driven identification of predictive risk biomarkers for subgroups of osteoarthritis using interpretable machine learning.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is increasing in prevalence and has a severe impact on patients' lives. However, our understanding of biomarkers driving OA risk remains limited. We developed a model predicting the five-year risk of OA diagnosis, integrating retrospective clinical, lifestyle and biomarker data from the UK Biobank (19,120 patients with OA, ROC-AUC: 0.72, 95%CI (0.71-0.73)). Higher age, BMI and prescription of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs contributed most to increased OA risk prediction ahead of diagnosis. We identified 14 subgroups of OA risk profiles. These subgroups were validated in an independent set of patients evaluating the 11-year OA risk, with 88% of patients being uniquely assigned to one of the 14 subgroups. Individual OA risk profiles were characterised by personalised biomarkers. Omics integration demonstrated the predictive importance of key OA genes and pathways (e.g., GDF5 and TGF-ß signalling) and OA-specific biomarkers (e.g., CRTAC1 and COL9A1). In summary, this work identifies opportunities for personalised OA prevention and insights into its underlying pathogenesis.

Placental senescence pathophysiology is shared between peripartum cardiomyopathy and preeclampsia in mouse and human.

Peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) is an idiopathic form of pregnancy-induced heart failure associated with preeclampsia. Circulating factors in late pregnancy are thought to contribute to both diseases, suggesting a common underlying pathophysiological process. However, what drives this process remains unclear. Using serum proteomics, we identified the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP), a marker of cellular senescence associated with biological aging, as the most highly up-regulated pathway in young women with PPCM or preeclampsia. Placentas from women with preeclampsia displayed multiple markers of amplified senescence and tissue aging, as well as overall increased gene expression of 28 circulating proteins that contributed to SASP pathway enrichment in serum samples from patients with preeclampsia or PPCM. The most highly expressed placental SASP factor, activin A, was associated with cardiac dysfunction or heart failure severity in women with preeclampsia or PPCM. In a murine model of PPCM induced by cardiomyocyte-specific deletion of the gene encoding peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ coactivator-1α, inhibiting activin A signaling in the early postpartum period with a monoclonal antibody to the activin type II receptor improved heart function. In addition, attenuating placental senescence with the senolytic compound fisetin in late pregnancy improved cardiac function in these animals. These findings link senescence biology to cardiac dysfunction in pregnancy and help to elucidate the pathogenesis underlying cardiovascular diseases of pregnancy.