Severe Infection and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Multicohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The excess risk of cardiovascular disease associated with a wide array of infectious diseases is unknown. We quantified the short- and long-term risk of major cardiovascular events in people with severe infection and estimated the population-attributable fraction. METHODS: We analyzed data from 331 683 UK Biobank participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline (2006-2010) and replicated our main findings in an independent population from 3 prospective cohort studies comprising 271 329 community-dwelling participants from Finland (baseline 1986-2005). Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at baseline. We diagnosed infectious diseases (the exposure) and incident major cardiovascular events after infections, defined as myocardial infarction, cardiac death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke (the outcome) from linkage of participants to hospital and death registers. We computed adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for infectious diseases as short- and long-term risk factors for incident major cardiovascular events. We also calculated population-attributable fractions for long-term risk. RESULTS: In the UK Biobank (mean follow-up, 11.6 years), 54 434 participants were hospitalized for an infection, and 11 649 had an incident major cardiovascular event at follow-up. Relative to participants with no record of infectious disease, those who were hospitalized experienced increased risk of major cardiovascular events, largely irrespective of the type of infection. This association was strongest during the first month after infection (HR, 7.87 [95% CI, 6.36-9.73]), but remained elevated during the entire follow-up (HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.40-1.54]). The findings were similar in the replication cohort (HR, 7.64 [95% CI, 5.82-10.03] during the first month; HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.34-1.48] during mean follow-up of 19.2 years). After controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the population-attributable fraction for severe infections and major cardiovascular events was 4.4% in the UK Biobank and 6.1% in the replication cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Infections severe enough to require hospital treatment were associated with increased risks for major cardiovascular disease events immediately after hospitalization. A small excess risk was also observed in the long-term, but residual confounding cannot be excluded.

Cohort study on incidence of new-onset type 2 diabetes in patients after bariatric surgery and matched controls.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic bariatric surgery the reduces risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes in individuals with obesity, but it is unclear whether the benefit varies by sex, age, or socioeconomic status. The aim was to assess the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes after metabolic bariatric surgery in these subgroups. METHODS: The Finnish Public Sector study, a follow-up study with matched controls nested in a large employee cohort, included patients without type 2 diabetes and with a diagnosis of obesity or self-reported BMI of at least 35 kg/m2. For each patient who had laparoscopic metabolic bariatric surgery (2008-2016), two propensity-score matched controls were selected. New-onset type 2 diabetes was ascertained from linked records from national health registries. RESULTS: The study included a total of 917 patients and 1811 matched controls with obesity. New-onset type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 15 of the patients who had metabolic bariatric surgery (4.1 per 1000 person-years) and 164 controls (20.2 per 1000 person-years). The corresponding rate ratio (RR) was 0.20 (95% c.i. 0.12 to 0.35) and the rate difference (RD) was -16.1 (-19.8 to -12.3) per 1000 person-years. The risk reduction was more marked in individuals of low socioeconomic status (RR 0.10 (0.04 to 0.26) and RD -20.6 (-25.6 to -15.5) per 1000 person-years) than in those with higher socioeconomic status (RR 0.35 (0.18 to 0.66) and RD -11.5 (-16.9 to -6.0) per 1000 person-years) (Pinteraction = 0.017). No differences were observed between sexes or age groups. CONCLUSION: Metabolic bariatric surgery was associated with a reduced risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes in men and women and in all age groups. The greatest benefit was observed in individuals of low socioeconomic status.

Metabolic bariatric surgery reduces the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes in individuals with obesity or severe obesity. The risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes after metabolic bariatric surgery varies between socioeconomic status subgroups. In this prospective study, new-onset type 2 diabetes occurred in 1.6% of 917 patients who underwent metabolic bariatric surgery and 9.1% of 1811 propensity score-matched controls. Risk reduction was more marked in individuals of low socioeconomic status. There were no differences between sex or age groups. The reduced risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes after metabolic bariatric surgery emphasizes the need to increase access to treatment in patients with severe obesity. As the preventive effect was most pronounced in individuals of low socioeconomic status associated with both greater burden of disease and worse access to healthcare, the findings need to be taken into account in health policies to reduce health inequalities.

Dementia prevention: the Mendelian randomisation perspective.

Understanding the causes of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias remains a challenge. Observational studies investigating dementia risk factors are limited by the pervasive issues of confounding, reverse causation and selection biases. Conducting randomised controlled trials for dementia prevention is often impractical due to the long prodromal phase and the inability to randomise many potential risk factors. In this essay, we introduce Mendelian randomisation as an alternative approach to examine factors that may prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease. Mendelian randomisation is a causal inference method that has successfully identified risk factors and treatments in various other fields. However, applying this method to dementia risk factors has yielded unexpected findings. Here, we consider five potential explanations and provide recommendations to enhance causal inference from Mendelian randomisation studies on dementia. By employing these strategies, we can better understand factors affecting dementia risk.

Association between ultra-processed foods and recurrence of depressive symptoms: the Whitehall II cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between high intakes of ultra-processed foods (UPF) and recurrence of depressive symptoms (DepS) in a Western non-Mediterranean country and its contribution to the overall diet-depression relationship. METHODS: Analyses were carried out on British participants from the Whitehall II cohort. Present analyses were restricted to white participants N = 4554 (74% men, mean age = 61; SD = 5.9). UPF consumption was estimated from a 127-item food frequency questionnaire using the NOVA classification, and cumulative average of UPF intakes (g/day) over 11 years of exposure (1991/1994-2002/2004) was computed. Recurrent DepS after measurement of UPF was defined as having two or more episodes of DepS (the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) score ≥ 16 or antidepressants use) during four phases of follow-up (2002/2004-2015/2016). RESULTS: Over the follow-up, 588 (12.9%) cases of recurrent DepS were observed. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors, health behaviours and health status, participants in top quintile of UPF intakes [mean 33% of total daily intakes in grams] had 31% higher odds of recurrent DepS (odds ratio 1.31; 95% CI 1.04-1.64) compared to participants in the four lowest quintiles of UPF [mean 18.1% of total daily intakes in grams]. Additional analyses showed that associations between adherence to several diet quality measures and recurrent DepS were partially attenuated (17-27%) by UPF intakes. CONCLUSION: In this British population, high intakes of ultra-processed foods were associated with increased odds of recurrent depressive symptoms and contributed to the overall diet quality-depressive symptoms association.

Association of school neighbourhood socioeconomic disadvantage and teaching staff's risk of violence at work.

AIM: The aim of this study was to determine the association between neighbourhood socioeconomic disadvantage and teaching staff's risk of workplace violence and whether workplace psychosocial resources can act as effect modifiers. METHODS: Primary school teaching staff in the six largest cities in Finland responded to a survey in 2018 and were linked to information on school neighbourhood disadvantage obtained from the national grid database (n = 3984). RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, staff working in schools located in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods had a 1.2-fold (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.35) risk of encountering violence or threat of violence compared with staff working in the most advantaged neighbourhoods. The association was less marked in schools with strong support from colleagues (risk ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98-1.32 for high support versus 1.23, 95% CI 1.07-1.43 for low/intermediate support), a strong culture of collaboration (1.08, 95% CI 0.93-1.26 versus 1.31, 95% CI 1.12-1.53), high leadership quality (1.12, 95% CI 0.96-1.31 versus 1.29, 95% CI 1.08-1.54), and high organizational justice (1.09, 95% CI 0.91-1.32 versus 1.29, 95% CI 1.09-1.52). CONCLUSIONS: The association between school neighbourhood and teaching staff's risk of violence was weaker in schools with high workplace psychosocial resources, suggesting that targeting these factors might help in minimizing violence at schools, but future intervention studies are needed to confirm or refute this hypothesis.

Risk of Macrovascular and Microvascular Disease in Diabetes Diagnosed Using Oral Glucose Tolerance Test With and Without Confirmation by Hemoglobin A1c: The Whitehall II Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether replacing oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurement for diagnosing diabetes is justified. We aimed to assess the proportion of OGTT-diagnosed diabetes cases that can be confirmed by HbA1c and to examine whether individuals with OGTT diagnosis but nondiagnostic HbA1c are at higher risk of macrovascular and microvascular disease. METHODS: Participants were 5773 men and women from the population-based Whitehall II prospective cohort study in the United Kingdom. New OGTT diabetes cases diagnosed in clinical examinations in 2002 to 2004 and 2007 to 2009 were assessed for HbA1c confirmation (≥6.5%) in these and subsequent clinical examinations in 2012 to 2013 and 2015 to 2016. All participants were followed up for major cardiovascular events through linkage to electronic health records until 2017 and for incident chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2) until the last clinical examination. In analysis of vascular disease risk, new OGTT-diagnosed diabetes cases with and without diagnostic HbA1c and preexisting diabetes cases were compared with diabetes-free participants. RESULTS: Of the 378 (59.3%) participants with OGTT-diagnosed diabetes, 224 were confirmed by HbA1c during 4.1 years (SD, 4.1 years) of follow-up. We recorded 942 cardiovascular events over 12.1 years. After adjustment for nonmodifiable risk factors and compared with the 4997 diabetes-free participants, 371 participants with new HbA1c-confirmed diabetes and 405 participants with preexisting diabetes had increased risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.12-2.10] and 1.85 [95% CI, 1.50-2.28], respectively). The corresponding hazard ratios in the analysis of incident chronic kidney disease (487 cases; follow-up, 6.6 years) were 1.69 (95% CI, 1.09-2.62) for 282 participants with new HbA1c-confirmed diabetes and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.22-2.28) for 276 participants with preexisting diabetes. In both analyses, OGTT cases with nondiagnostic HbA1c (n=149 and 107) had a risk (hazard ratio, 0.99-1.07) similar to that of the diabetes-free population. CONCLUSIONS: More than 40% of OGTT-diagnosed diabetes cases were not confirmed by HbA1c during an extended follow-up. However, because these individuals have a risk of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease similar to that of the diabetes-free population, replacement of OGTT with HbA1c-based diagnosis appears justified.

Is metabolic-healthy obesity associated with risk of dementia? An age-stratified analysis of the Whitehall II cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Metabolically healthy obesity is hypothesized to be a benign condition but whether this is the case for dementia remains debated. We examined the role of age at assessment of metabolic-obesity phenotypes in associations with incident dementia. METHODS: Obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2) and poor metabolic health (≥ 2 of elevated serum triglycerides, low HDL-C, elevated blood pressure, and elevated serum fasting glucose) were used to define four metabolic-obesity phenotypes (metabolically healthy (MHNO) and unhealthy non-obesity (MUNO), metabolically healthy (MHO) and unhealthy obesity (MUO)) at < 60, 60 to < 70, and ≥ 70 years using 6 waves of data from the Whitehall II study and their associations with incident dementia was examined using Cox regression. RESULTS: Analyses with exposures measured < 60, 60 to < 70, and ≥ 70 years involved 410 (5.8%), 379 (5.6%), and 262 (7.4%) incident dementia cases over a median follow-up of 20.8, 10.3, and 4.2 years respectively. In analyses of individual components, obesity before 60 years (HR 1.41, 95% CI: [1.08, 1.85]) but not at older ages was associated with dementia; unhealthy metabolic status when present < 60 years (HR 1.33, 95% CI: [1.08, 1.62]) and 60 to < 70 years (HR 1.32, 95% CI: [1.07, 1.62]) was associated with dementia. Compared to the metabolically healthy non-obesity group, the risk of dementia was higher in those with metabolically healthy obesity before 60 years (1.69; 95% CI: [1.16, 2.45]); this was not the case when metabolic-obesity phenotype was present at 60 to < 70 years or ≥ 70 years. Analyses at older ages were on smaller numbers due to death and drop-out but inverse probability weighting to account for missing data yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with metabolically healthy obesity before age 60 had a higher risk of incident dementia over a 27-year follow-up; the excess risk dissipates when metabolic health and obesity are measured after 70 years.

Triangulating evidence from observational and Mendelian randomization studies of ketone bodies for cognitive performance.

BACKGROUND: Ketone bodies (KBs) are an alternative energy supply for brain functions when glucose is limited. The most abundant ketone metabolite, 3-ß-hydroxybutyrate (BOHBUT), has been suggested to prevent or delay cognitive impairment, but the evidence remains unclear. We triangulated observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies to investigate the association and causation between KBs and cognitive function. METHODS: In observational analyses of 5506 participants aged ≥ 45 years from the Whitehall II study, we used multiple linear regression to investigate the associations between categorized KBs and cognitive function scores. Two-sample MR was carried out using summary statistics from an in-house KBs meta-analysis between the University College London-London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium and Kettunen et al. (N = 45,031), and publicly available summary statistics of cognitive performance and Alzheimer's disease (AD) from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (N = 257,841), and the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (N = 54,162), respectively. Both strong (P < 5 × 10-8) and suggestive (P < 1 × 10-5) sets of instrumental variables for BOHBUT were applied. Finally, we performed cis-MR on OXCT1, a well-known gene for KB catabolism. RESULTS: BOHBUT was positively associated with general cognitive function (ß = 0.26, P = 9.74 × 10-3). In MR analyses, we observed a protective effect of BOHBUT on cognitive performance (inverse variance weighted: ßIVW = 7.89 × 10-2, PIVW = 1.03 × 10-2; weighted median: ßW-Median = 8.65 × 10-2, PW-Median = 9.60 × 10-3) and a protective effect on AD (ßIVW = - 0.31, odds ratio: OR = 0.74, PIVW = 3.06 × 10-2). Cis-MR showed little evidence of therapeutic modulation of OXCT1 on cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulation of evidence suggests that BOHBUT has a beneficial effect on cognitive performance. Our findings raise the hypothesis that increased BOHBUT may improve general cognitive functions, delaying cognitive impairment and reducing the risk of AD.

Trajectories of cardiac troponin in the decades before cardiovascular death: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing is a promising tool for cardiovascular risk prediction, but whether serial testing can dynamically predict risk is uncertain. We evaluated the trajectory of cardiac troponin I in the years prior to a cardiovascular event in the general population, and determine whether serial measurements could track risk within individuals. METHODS: In the Whitehall II cohort, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured on three occasions over a 15-year period. Time trajectories of troponin were constructed in those who died from cardiovascular disease compared to those who survived or died from other causes during follow up and these were externally validated in the HUNT Study. A joint model that adjusts for cardiovascular risk factors was used to estimate risk of cardiovascular death using serial troponin measurements. RESULTS: In 7,293 individuals (mean 58 ± 7 years, 29.4% women) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death occurred in 281 (3.9%) and 914 (12.5%) individuals (median follow-up 21.4 years), respectively. Troponin concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease with a steeper trajectory compared to those surviving or dying from other causes in Whitehall and HUNT (Pinteraction < 0.05 for both). The joint model demonstrated an independent association between temporal evolution of troponin and risk of cardiovascular death (HR per doubling, 1.45, 95% CI,1.33-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac troponin I concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease compared to those surviving or dying from other causes over the preceding decades. Serial cardiac troponin testing in the general population has potential to track future cardiovascular risk.

Nurse Staffing Level, Length of Work Experience, and Risk of Health Care-Associated Infections Among Hospital Patients: A Prospective Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Nurse understaffing may have several adverse consequences for patients in hospitals, such as health care-associated infections (HAIs), but there is little longitudinal evidence available on staffing levels and HAIs with consideration of incubation times to confirm this. Using daily longitudinal data, we analyzed temporal associations between nurse understaffing and limited work experience, and the risk of HAIs. METHODS: The study was based on administrative data of 40 units and 261,067 inpatient periods for a hospital district in Finland in 2013-2019. Survival analyses with moving time windows were used to examine the association of nurse understaffing and limited work experience with the risk of an HAI 2 days after exposure, adjusting for individual risk factors. We reported hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Neither nurse understaffing nor limited work experience were associated with the overall risk of HAIs. The results were inconsistent across staffing measures and types of HAIs, and many of the associations were weak. Regarding specific HAI types, 1-day exposure to low proportion of nurses with >3 years of in-hospital experience and low proportion of nurses more than 25 years old were associated with increased risk of bloodstream infections (HR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.62 and HR=1.40; 95% CI: 1.07-1.83). Two-day exposure to low nursing hours relative to target hours was associated with an increased risk of surgical-site infections (HR=2.64, 95% CI: 1.66-4.20). CONCLUSIONS: Data from time-varying analyses suggest that nursing staff shortages and limited work experience do not always increase the risk of HAI among patients.

Systemic inflammation and subsequent risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While systemic inflammation has been implicated in the etiology of selected neurodegenerative disorders, its role in the development of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a condition with high case-fatality, is untested. Accordingly, we quantified the relationship of C-reactive protein (CRP), an acute-phase reactant and marker of systemic inflammation, with subsequent ALS occurrence. METHODS: We used data from UK Biobank, a prospective cohort study of 502,649 participants who were aged 37 to 73 years when examined at research centers between 2006 and 2010. Venous blood was collected at baseline in the full cohort and assayed for CRP, and repeat measurement was made 3-7 years later in a representative subgroup (N = 14,514) enabling correction for regression dilution. ALS was ascertained via national hospitalization and mortality registries until 2021. We computed multivariable hazard ratios with accompanying 95% confidence intervals for log-transformed CRP expressed as standard deviation and tertiles. RESULTS: In an analytical sample of 400,884 initially ALS-free individuals (218,203 women), a mean follow-up of 12 years gave rise to 231 hospitalizations and 223 deaths ascribed to ALS. After adjustment for covariates which included health behaviors, comorbidity, and socio-economic status, a one standard deviation higher log-CRP was associated with elevated rates of both ALS mortality (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals: 1.32; 1.13, 1.53) and hospitalizations (1.20; 1.00, 1.39). There was evidence of dose-response effects across tertiles of CRP for both outcomes (p for trend ≤ 0.05). Correction for regression dilution led to a strengthening of the relationship with CRP for both mortality (1.62; 1.27, 2.08) and hospitalizations (1.37; 1.05, 1.76). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of CRP, a blood-based biomarker widely captured in clinical practice, is associated with moderately increased future risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Comparison of sex differences in cognitive function in older adults between high- and middle-income countries and the role of education: a population-based multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which education explains variations in sex differences in cognitive function between countries at different levels of economic development is unknown. We examined the role of education in sex differences in four cognitive domains in high- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Analyses were based on 70,846 participants, aged 60 years and older, in cohort studies from a high-income (United States) and four middle-income countries (Mexico, Brazil, China, and India). We used weighted linear models to allow nationally-representative comparisons of sex differences in orientation, memory, attention, and fluency using the United States as the reference, before and after adjustment for education, and after stratification by education. RESULTS: Females had lower levels of education than males in all countries, particularly in India. Before adjustment for education, sex differences in orientation and attention in all middle-income countries, memory in Brazil, China, and India, and fluency in India were less favourable to females than in the United States (P < 0.010). For example, females outperformed males in memory in the United States (mean difference [male-female scores] = -0.26 standard deviations [95% CI -0.30, -0.22]) but not in China (0.15 [0.09, 0.21]) or India (0.16 [0.13, 0.19]). Adjustment for education attenuated these sex differences. In analyses stratified by education, there were minimal sex differences in the high education group in all countries. CONCLUSION: Education contributes to larger female disadvantages in cognitive function at older ages in middle-income countries compared with the United States. Gender equity in education is an important target to reduce sex disparities in cognitive function globally.

Neighbourhood deprivation in childhood and adulthood and risk of arterial stiffness: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study.

Purpose: Individual socioeconomic status is associated with increased arterial stiffness, but limited data are available on the relations of neighbourhood deprivation with this vascular measure. We prospectively examined whether neighbourhood deprivation in childhood and adulthood predicts arterial stiffness indicated by pulse wave velocity (PWV).Materials and methods: The study population comprised 1,761 participants aged 3-18 years at baseline (1980) from the longitudinal Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns cohort study. PWV was measured in 2007 by whole-body impedance cardiography at ages 30-45 years. Cumulative lifetime neighbourhood deprivation was assessed using data from socioeconomic circumstances in participants' lifetime residential neighbourhoods, categorised as low versus high deprivation.Results: High deprivation in childhood and adulthood was associated with higher PWV in adulthood after adjustment for age, sex, and place of birth (mean difference = 0.57 m/s, 95%CI = 0.26-0.88, P for trend = 0.0004). This association was attenuated but remained statistically significant after further adjustment for childhood parental socioeconomic status and adulthood individual socioeconomic status (mean difference = 0.37 m/s, 95%CI = 0.05-0.70, P for trend 0.048). Also, low individual socioeconomic status in adulthood was associated with higher PWV when adjusted for age, sex, place of birth, parental socioeconomic status in childhood, and lifetime neighbourhood deprivation (mean difference = 0.54 m/s, 95%CI = 0.23-0.84, P for trend 0.0001).Conclusion: These findings suggest that lifetime neighbourhood deprivation and low adulthood socioeconomic status are independent risk factors for increased arterial stiffness in adulthood.

Limited data is available about the association between neighbourhood deprivation and arterial stiffening.We prospectively examined whether neighbourhood deprivation in childhood and adulthood predicts arterial stiffness indicated by pulse wave velocity (PWV) in 1,761 participants aged 3-18 years at baseline (1980) from the longitudinal Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns cohort study.PWV was measured by whole-body impedance cardiography at ages 30-45 years. Cumulative lifetime neighbourhood deprivation was assessed using data from socioeconomic circumstances in participants' lifetime residential neighbourhoods, categorised as low versus high deprivation.high lifetime neighbourhood deprivation was associated with high PWV in adulthood independently of childhood parental SES and adulthood individual SES.Low individual SES in adulthood was also associated with higher PWV in adulthood and this association was robust to adjustment for parental SES in childhood and lifetime neighbourhood deprivation.These findings suggest that neighbourhood deprivation and low adulthood socioeconomic status are independent risk factors for increased arterial stiffness in adulthood.

Overweight, obesity, and risk of hospitalization for COVID-19: A community-based cohort study of adults in the United Kingdom.

The role of obesity and overweight in occurrence of COVID-19 is unknown. We conducted a large-scale general population study using data from a community-dwelling sample in England (n = 334,329; 56.4 ±8.1 y; 54.5% women) with prospective linkage to national registry on hospitalization for COVID-19. Body mass index (BMI, from measured height and weight) was used as an indicator of overall obesity, and waist-hip ratio for central obesity. Main outcome was cases of COVID-19 serious enough to warrant a hospital admission from 16 March 2020 to 26 April 2020. Around 0.2% (n = 640) of the sample were hospitalized for COVID-19. There was an upward linear trend in the likelihood of COVID-19 hospitalization with increasing BMI, that was evident in the overweight (odds ratio, 1.39; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.71; crude incidence 19.1 per 10,000) and obese stage I (1.70;1.34 to 2.16; 23.3 per 10,000) and stage II (3.38; 2.60 to 4.40; 42.7 per 10,000) compared to normal weight (12.5 per 10,000). This gradient was little affected after adjustment for a wide range of covariates; however, controlling for biomarkers, particularly high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and glycated hemoglobin, led to a greater degree of attenuation. A similar pattern of association emerged for waist-hip ratio. In summary, overall and central obesity are risk factors for COVID-19 hospital admission. Elevated risk was apparent even at modest weight gain. The mechanisms may involve impaired glucose and lipid metabolism.

Change in lipids before onset of dementia, coronary heart disease, and mortality: A 28-year follow-up Whitehall II prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The association of lipids with dementia remains a subject of debate. Using data from 7,672 participants of the Whitehall II prospective cohort study, we examined whether timing of exposure, length of follow-up, or sex modifies this association. METHODS: Twelve markers of lipid levels were measured from fasting blood and eight among them a further five times. We performed time-to-event as well as trajectory analyses. RESULTS: No associations were observed in men; in women most lipids were associated with the risk of dementia, but only for events occurring after the first 20 years of follow-up. Differences in lipid trajectories in men emerged only in the years immediately before diagnosis whereas in women total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), non-HDL-cholesterol (non-HDL-C), TC/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C were higher in midlife among dementia cases before declining progressively. DISCUSSION: Abnormal lipid levels in midlife seem to be associated with a higher risk of dementia in women.

Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in psychiatric disorders: an umbrella review with meta-analysis of 245 observational studies from 32 systematic reviews.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Estimates of the global prevalence of type 2 diabetes vary between 6% and 9%. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been investigated in psychiatric populations but a critical appraisal of the existing evidence is lacking, and an overview is needed. This umbrella review summarises existing systematic reviews of observational studies investigating the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in people with a psychiatric disorder. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to 17 January 2021 and screened reference lists of included systematic reviews. On the basis of prespecified criteria, we included systematic reviews investigating the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in adults (aged ≥18 years) with a psychiatric disorder. Titles and abstracts of 5155 identified records and full texts of 431 selected studies were screened by two independent reviewers, based on predefined eligibility criteria and an a priori developed extraction form, following the PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed with the ROBIS instrument. Data extracted from primary studies were synthesised using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: A total of 32 systematic reviews with 245 unique primary studies were identified and met inclusion criteria. Twelve had low risk of bias. They reported type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates ranging from 5% to 22% depending on the specific psychiatric disorder. We meta-analysed data for ten categories of psychiatric disorders and found the following prevalence estimates of type 2 diabetes: in people with a sleep disorder: 40%; binge eating disorder: 21%; substance use disorder: 16%; anxiety disorder: 14%; bipolar disorder: 11%; psychosis: 11%; schizophrenia: 10%; a mixed group of psychiatric disorders: 10%; depression: 9%; and in people with an intellectual disability 8%. All meta-analyses revealed high levels of heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Type 2 diabetes is a common comorbidity in people with a psychiatric disorder. Future research should investigate whether routine screening for type 2 diabetes and subsequent prevention initiatives for these people are warranted. PROSPERO registration no. CRD42020159870.

Inter- and intra-individual variation in brain structural-cognition relationships in aging.

The sources of inter- and intra-individual variability in age-related cognitive decline remain poorly understood. We examined the association between 20-year trajectories of cognitive decline and multimodal brain structure and morphology in older age. We used the Whitehall II Study, an extensively characterised cohort with 3T brain magnetic resonance images acquired at older age (mean age = 69.52 ± 4.9) and 5 repeated cognitive performance assessments between mid-life (mean age = 53.2 ±4.9 years) and late-life (mean age = 67.7 ± 4.9). Using non-negative matrix factorization, we identified 10 brain components integrating cortical thickness, surface area, fractional anisotropy, and mean and radial diffusivities. We observed two latent variables describing distinct brain-cognition associations. The first describes variations in 5 structural components associated with low mid-life performance across multiple cognitive domains, decline in reasoning, but maintenance of fluency abilities. The second describes variations in 6 structural components associated with low mid-life performance in fluency and memory, but retention of multiple abilities. Expression of latent variables predicts future cognition 3.2 years later (mean age = 70.87 ± 4.9). This data-driven approach highlights brain-cognition relationships wherein individuals degrees of cognitive decline and maintenance across diverse cognitive functions are both positively and negatively associated with markers of cortical structure.

Association of sleep duration at age 50, 60, and 70 years with risk of multimorbidity in the UK: 25-year follow-up of the Whitehall II cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sleep duration has been shown to be associated with individual chronic diseases but its association with multimorbidity, common in older adults, remains poorly understood. We examined whether sleep duration is associated with incidence of a first chronic disease, subsequent multimorbidity and mortality using data spanning 25 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were drawn from the prospective Whitehall II cohort study, established in 1985 on 10,308 persons employed in the London offices of the British civil service. Self-reported sleep duration was measured 6 times between 1985 and 2016, and data on sleep duration was extracted at age 50 (mean age (standard deviation) = 50.6 (2.6)), 60 (60.3 (2.2)), and 70 (69.2 (1.9)). Incidence of multimorbidity was defined as having 2 or more of 13 chronic diseases, follow-up up to March 2019. Cox regression, separate analyses at each age, was used to examine associations of sleep duration at age 50, 60, and 70 with incident multimorbidity. Multistate models were used to examine the association of sleep duration at age 50 with onset of a first chronic disease, progression to incident multimorbidity, and death. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and health-related factors. A total of 7,864 (32.5% women) participants free of multimorbidity had data on sleep duration at age 50; 544 (6.9%) reported sleeping ≤5 hours, 2,562 (32.6%) 6 hours, 3,589 (45.6%) 7 hours, 1,092 (13.9%) 8 hours, and 77 (1.0%) ≥9 hours. Compared to 7-hour sleep, sleep duration ≤5 hours was associated with higher multimorbidity risk (hazard ratio: 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.12 to 1.50; p < 0.001). This was also the case for short sleep duration at age 60 (1.32, 1.13 to 1.55; p < 0.001) and 70 (1.40, 1.16 to 1.68; p < 0.001). Sleep duration ≥9 hours at age 60 (1.54, 1.15 to 2.06; p = 0.003) and 70 (1.51, 1.10 to 2.08; p = 0.01) but not 50 (1.39, 0.98 to 1.96; p = 0.07) was associated with incident multimorbidity. Among 7,217 participants free of chronic disease at age 50 (mean follow-up = 25.2 years), 4,446 developed a first chronic disease, 2,297 progressed to multimorbidity, and 787 subsequently died. Compared to 7-hour sleep, sleeping ≤5 hours at age 50 was associated with an increased risk of a first chronic disease (1.20, 1.06 to 1.35; p = 0.003) and, among those who developed a first disease, with subsequent multimorbidity (1.21, 1.03 to 1.42; p = 0.02). Sleep duration ≥9 hours was not associated with these transitions. No association was found between sleep duration and mortality among those with existing chronic diseases. The study limitations include the small number of cases in the long sleep category, not allowing conclusions to be drawn for this category, the self-reported nature of sleep data, the potential for reverse causality that could arise from undiagnosed conditions at sleep measures, and the small proportion of non-white participants, limiting generalization of findings. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed short sleep duration to be associated with risk of chronic disease and subsequent multimorbidity but not with progression to death. There was no robust evidence of an increased risk of chronic disease among those with long sleep duration at age 50. Our findings suggest an association between short sleep duration and multimorbidity.

Circulating serum metabolites as predictors of dementia: a machine learning approach in a 21-year follow-up of the Whitehall II cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Age is the strongest risk factor for dementia and there is considerable interest in identifying scalable, blood-based biomarkers in predicting dementia. We examined the role of midlife serum metabolites using a machine learning approach and determined whether the selected metabolites improved prediction accuracy beyond the effect of age. METHODS: Five thousand three hundred seventy-four participants from the Whitehall II study, mean age 55.8 (standard deviation (SD) 6.0) years in 1997-1999 when 233 metabolites were quantified using nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Participants were followed for a median 21.0 (IQR 20.4, 21.7) years for clinically-diagnosed dementia (N=329). Elastic net penalized Cox regression with 100 repetitions of nested cross-validation was used to select models that improved prediction accuracy for incident dementia compared to an age-only model. Risk scores reflecting the frequency with which predictors appeared in the selected models were constructed, and their predictive accuracy was examined using Royston's R2, Akaike's information criterion, sensitivity, specificity, C-statistic and calibration. RESULTS: Sixteen of the 100 models had a better c-statistic compared to an age-only model and 15 metabolites were selected at least once in all 16 models with glucose present in all models. Five risk scores, reflecting the frequency of selection of metabolites, and a 1-SD increment in all five risk scores was associated with higher dementia risk (HR between 3.13 and 3.26). Three of these, constituted of 4, 5 and 15 metabolites, had better prediction accuracy (c-statistic from 0.788 to 0.796) compared to an age-only model (c-statistic 0.780), all p<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was robust evidence for the role of glucose in dementia, metabolites measured in midlife made only a modest contribution to dementia prediction once age was taken into account.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Childhood Body Mass Index Trajectories From Birth to 7 Years of Age.

BACKGROUND: The epidemic of increasing childhood overweight and obesity is a major global health concern, with local contextual factors identified as possible contributors. Robust research is needed to establish an evidence base supporting health policy decisions to reverse the trend. We aimed to examine the association between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and trajectories of body mass index (BMI) from birth to age 7. METHODS: The present study included 11,023 children born within the Southwest Finland Birth Cohort who were free of severe conditions affecting growth with adequate exposure and growth data. We obtained child growth data until school age from municipal follow-up clinics. We based cumulative childhood neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage on the average annual income, unemployment, and level of education in a residential area defined using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 250 m by 250 m. RESULTS: Cumulative neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with distinct childhood BMI z score trajectories from birth to age 7. Despite being born in the lowest BMI z scores, children growing up in disadvantaged neighborhoods subsequently exhibited a trajectory of increasing BMI z scores starting at 4 years of age, ending up with a higher risk of overweight at the end of the follow-up (30%) as compared with children living in more affluent neighborhoods (22%). The corresponding risk of obesity was 5 % for those in affluent neighborhoods and 9 % and those in disadvantaged neighborhoods. CONCLUSION: Cumulative exposure to neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage is independently associated with unfavorable BMI development and obesity in childhood.