Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming.

Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mid-twentieth century 1-7 are known as the Great Acceleration and have been discussed as a key indicator of the onset of the Anthropocene epoch 6 . While reports on ecological responses (for example, changes in species range or local extinctions) to the Great Acceleration are multiplying 8, 9 , it is unknown whether such biotic responses are undergoing a similar acceleration over time. This knowledge gap stems from the limited availability of time series data on biodiversity changes across large temporal and geographical extents. Here we use a dataset of repeated plant surveys from 302 mountain summits across Europe, spanning 145 years of observation, to assess the temporal trajectory of mountain biodiversity changes as a globally coherent imprint of the Anthropocene. We find a continent-wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, with five times as much species enrichment between 2007 and 2016 as fifty years ago, between 1957 and 1966. This acceleration is strikingly synchronized with accelerated global warming and is not linked to alternative global change drivers. The accelerating increases in species richness on mountain summits across this broad spatial extent demonstrate that acceleration in climate-induced biotic change is occurring even in remote places on Earth, with potentially far-ranging consequences not only for biodiversity, but also for ecosystem functioning and services.

Biotic rescaling reveals importance of species interactions for variation in biodiversity responses to climate change.

Generality in understanding biodiversity responses to climate change has been hampered by substantial variation in the rates and even directions of response to a given change in climate. We propose that such context dependencies can be clarified by rescaling climate gradients in terms of the underlying biological processes, with biotic interactions as a particularly important process. We tested this rescaling approach in a replicated field experiment where entire montane grassland communities were transplanted in the direction of expected temperature and/or precipitation change. In line with earlier work, we found considerable variation across sites in community dynamics in response to climate change. However, these complex context dependencies could be substantially reduced or eliminated by rescaling climate drivers in terms of proxies of plant-plant interactions. Specifically, bryophytes limited colonization by new species into local communities, whereas the cover of those colonists, along with bryophytes, were the primary drivers of local extinctions. These specific interactions are relatively understudied, suggesting important directions for future work in similar systems. More generally, the success of our approach in explaining and simplifying landscape-level variation in climate change responses suggests that developing and testing proxies for relevant underlying processes could be a fruitful direction for building more general models of biodiversity response to climate change.

Legacy effects of herbivory on treeline dynamics along an elevational gradient.

Treelines are expected to expand into alpine ecosystems with global warming, but herbivory may delay this expansion. This study quantifies long-term effects of temporally varying sheep densities on birch recruitment and growth in the treeline ecotone. We examined treeline ecotone successional trajectories and legacy effects in a replicated experimental setup, where enclosures were present for 14 years with three different sheep densities (0, 25, 80 sheep km-2). Before and after the enclosures were present, the site had an ambient sheep density of 20-25 km-2. We sampled field data 4 years after enclosure removal and compared these to data sampled 8 and 9 years after enclosure erection. We sampled data on birch browsing pressure, birch distribution across life-stages (recruits, saplings, and mature trees), and birch annual radial growth. Fourteen years of increased or decreased sheep density had observable legacy effects depending on birch life-stage. Birch recruit prevalence decreased in areas, where sheep were reintroduced after being absent for 14 years. For the same areas, sapling and mature tree prevalence increased, indicating that these areas have entered alternative successional trajectories compared to areas, where sheep were present the whole time. Birch annual radial growth showed a lag effect of 2 years after enclosure removal, with growth decreasing in areas where sheep had been absent for 14 years and increasing where sheep densities were high. Thus, decadal-scale absences of herbivores can leave legacy effects due to increased numbers of trees that have high resistance to later-introduced herbivore browsing.

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity-ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.

Patterns of free amino acids in tundra soils reflect mycorrhizal type, shrubification, and warming.

The soil nitrogen (N) cycle in cold terrestrial ecosystems is slow and organically bound N is an important source of N for plants in these ecosystems. Many plant species can take up free amino acids from these infertile soils, either directly or indirectly via their mycorrhizal fungi. We hypothesized that plant community changes and local plant community differences will alter the soil free amino acid pool and composition; and that long-term warming could enhance this effect. To test this, we studied the composition of extractable free amino acids at five separate heath, meadow, and bog locations in subarctic and alpine Scandinavia, with long-term (13 to 24 years) warming manipulations. The plant communities all included a mixture of ecto-, ericoid-, and arbuscular mycorrhizal plant species. Vegetation dominated by grasses and forbs with arbuscular and non-mycorrhizal associations showed highest soil free amino acid content, distinguishing them from the sites dominated by shrubs with ecto- and ericoid-mycorrhizal associations. Warming increased shrub and decreased moss cover at two sites, and by using redundancy analysis, we found that altered soil free amino acid composition was related to this plant cover change. From this, we conclude that the mycorrhizal type is important in controlling soil N cycling and that expansion of shrubs with ectomycorrhiza (and to some extent ericoid mycorrhiza) can help retain N within the ecosystems by tightening the N cycle.

Macroecological context predicts species' responses to climate warming.

Context-dependencies in species' responses to the same climate change frustrate attempts to generalize and make predictions based on experimental and observational approaches in biodiversity science. Here, we propose predictability may be enhanced by explicitly incorporating macroecological context into analyses of species' responses to climate manipulations. We combined vascular plant species' responses to an 8-year, 12-site turf transplant climate change experiment set in southwestern Norway with climate niche data from the observed 151 species. We used the difference between a species' mean climate across their range and climate conditions at the transplant site ("climate differences") to predict colonization probability, extinction probability, and change in abundance of a species at a site. In analyses across species that ignore species-specific patterns, colonization success increased as species' distribution optima were increasingly warmer than the experimental target site. Extinction probability increased as species' distribution optima were increasingly colder than the target site. These patterns were reflected in change in abundance analyses. We found weak responses to increased precipitation in these oceanic climates. Climate differences were better predictors of species' responses to climate manipulations than range size. Interestingly, similar patterns were found when analyses focused on variation in species-specific responses across sites. These results provide an experimental underpinning to observational studies that report thermophilization of communities and suggest that space-for-time substitutions may be valid for predicting species' responses to climate warming, given other conditions are accounted for (e.g., soil nutrients). Finally, we suggest that this method of putting climate change experiments into macroecological context has the potential to generalize and predict species' responses to climate manipulations globally.

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities.

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1-315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species' populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales.

Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes.

Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree.

From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands.

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.

Temperature, precipitation and biotic interactions as determinants of tree seedling recruitment across the tree line ecotone.

Seedling recruitment is a critical life history stage for trees, and successful recruitment is tightly linked to both abiotic factors and biotic interactions. In order to better understand how tree species' distributions may change in response to anticipated climate change, more knowledge of the effects of complex climate and biotic interactions is needed. We conducted a seed-sowing experiment to investigate how temperature, precipitation and biotic interactions impact recruitment of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) seedlings in southern Norway. Seeds were sown into intact vegetation and experimentally created gaps. To study the combined effects of temperature and precipitation, the experiment was replicated across 12 sites, spanning a natural climate gradient from boreal to alpine and from sub-continental to oceanic. Seedling emergence and survival were assessed 12 and 16 months after sowing, respectively, and above-ground biomass and height were determined at the end of the experiment. Interestingly, very few seedlings were detected in the boreal sites, and the highest number of seedlings emerged and established in the alpine sites, indicating that low temperature did not limit seedling recruitment. Site precipitation had an overall positive effect on seedling recruitment, especially at intermediate precipitation levels. Seedling emergence, establishment and biomass were higher in gap plots compared to intact vegetation at all temperature levels. These results suggest that biotic interactions in the form of competition may be more important than temperature as a limiting factor for tree seedling recruitment in the sub- and low-alpine zone of southern Norway.

Plant traits and associated data from a warming experiment, a seabird colony, and along elevation in Svalbard.

The Arctic is warming at a rate four times the global average, while also being exposed to other global environmental changes, resulting in widespread vegetation and ecosystem change. Integrating functional trait-based approaches with multi-level vegetation, ecosystem, and landscape data enables a holistic understanding of the drivers and consequences of these changes. In two High Arctic study systems near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, a 20-year ITEX warming experiment and elevational gradients with and without nutrient input from nesting seabirds, we collected data on vegetation composition and structure, plant functional traits, ecosystem fluxes, multispectral remote sensing, and microclimate. The dataset contains 1,962 plant records and 16,160 trait measurements from 34 vascular plant taxa, for 9 of which these are the first published trait data. By integrating these comprehensive data, we bridge knowledge gaps and expand trait data coverage, including on intraspecific trait variation. These data can offer insights into ecosystem functioning and provide baselines to assess climate and environmental change impacts. Such knowledge is crucial for effective conservation and management in these vulnerable regions.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

Do trade-offs govern plant species' responses to different global change treatments?

Plants are subject to trade-offs among growth strategies such that adaptations for optimal growth in one condition can preclude optimal growth in another. Thus, we predicted that a plant species that responds positively to one global change treatment would be less likely than average to respond positively to another treatment, particularly for pairs of treatments that favor distinct traits. We examined plant species' abundances in 39 global change experiments manipulating two or more of the following: CO2 , nitrogen, phosphorus, water, temperature, or disturbance. Overall, the directional response of a species to one treatment was 13% more likely than expected to oppose its response to a another single-factor treatment. This tendency was detectable across the global data set, but held little predictive power for individual treatment combinations or within individual experiments. Although trade-offs in the ability to respond to different global change treatments exert discernible global effects, other forces obscure their influence in local communities.

The role of plant functional groups mediating climate impacts on carbon and biodiversity of alpine grasslands.

Plant removal experiments allow assessment of the role of biotic interactions among species or functional groups in community assembly and ecosystem functioning. When replicated along climate gradients, they can assess changes in interactions among species or functional groups with climate. Across twelve sites in the Vestland Climate Grid (VCG) spanning 4 °C in growing season temperature and 2000 mm in mean annual precipitation across boreal and alpine regions of Western Norway, we conducted a fully factorial plant functional group removal experiment (graminoids, forbs, bryophytes). Over six years, we recorded biomass removed, soil microclimate, plant community composition and structure, seedling recruitment, ecosystem carbon fluxes, and reflectance in 384 experimental and control plots. The dataset consists of 5,412 biomass records, 360 species-level biomass records, 1,084,970 soil temperature records, 4,771 soil moisture records, 17,181 plant records covering 206 taxa, 16,656 seedling records, 3,696 ecosystem carbon flux measurements, and 1,244 reflectance measurements. The data can be combined with longer-term climate data and plant population, community, ecosystem, and functional trait data collected within the VCG.

Ontogenetic niche shifts in a locally endangered tree species (Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata) in a disturbed forest in Northern Ethiopia: Implications for conservation.

Understanding the responses of different ontogenetic stages to environmental and human disturbance factors is essential for developing efficient conservation strategies for endangered plant species. We examined how three ontogenetic stages of a locally endangered tree species, Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata, responded to environmental factors and human disturbance in Hugumburda dry Afromontane forest in Ethiopia. We counted individual seedlings, saplings and adults of O. europaea in 70 20 × 20 m quadrats over ca. 2.8 ha, and measured biotic (woody species richness, canopy cover, aboveground tree biomass, herbaceous cover), abiotic (soil and topographic variables), and human disturbance factors (logging and tracks). To detect ontogenetic niche shifts, we compared observed vs. simulated locations of trees in the three life stages and how they related to the environmental and human disturbance factors. We found that the population structure of O. europaea showed generally low recruitment, with few seedlings per hectare compared with the abundance of saplings and adults. The probability of finding O. europaea individuals was influenced by biotic (woody species richness) and abiotic (soil depth, slope) environmental conditions and human disturbance (logging intensity), but the direction, strength and shape of the relationships differed between seedling, sapling and adult life stages, indicating ontogenetic niche shifts. All life stages showed a positive relationship with elevation. The observed environmental niches of the different lifestages of O. europaea, and their association with human disturbance levels, should be considered when conservation strategies are developed for this species. Human disturbance in terms of logging decreases the abundance of saplings, but may facilitate emerging seedlings through creation of gaps with improved light conditions. Recruitment is, however, very low in the study area, and seedlings should be protected from browsing to enhance survival. Woody species richness in general should be conserved to optimize conditions also for O. europaea saplings.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants.

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Quantifying the roles of seed dispersal, filtering, and climate on regional patterns of grassland biodiversity.

Seed dispersal and local filtering interactively govern community membership and scale up to shape regional vegetation patterns, but data revealing how and why particular species are excluded from specific communities in nature are scarce. This lack of data is a missing link between our theoretical understanding of how diversity patterns can form and how they actually form in nature, and it hampers our ability to predict community responses to climate change. Here, we compare seed, seedling, and adult plant communities at 12 grassland sites with different climates in southern Norway to examine how community membership is interactively shaped by seed dispersal and local filtering, and how this process varies with climate across sites. To do this, we divide species at each site into two groups: locally transient species, which occur as seeds but are rare or absent as adults (i.e., they arrive but are filtered out), and locally persistent species, which occur consistently as adults in annual vegetation surveys. We then ask how and why locally transient species are disfavored during community assembly. Our results led to four main conclusions: (1) the total numbers of seeds and species that arrived, but failed to establish locally persistent populations, rose with temperature, indicating an increase in the realized effects of local filtering on community assembly, as well as an increase in the number of species poised to rapidly colonize those warmer sites if local conditions change in their favor, (2) locally transient species were selectively filtered out during seedling emergence, but not during seedling establishment, (3) selective filtering was partly driven by species climate preferences, exemplified by the poor performance of seeds dispersing outside of their realized climate niches into colder and drier foreign climates, and (4) locally transient species had traits that likely made them better dispersers (i.e., smaller seeds) but poorer competitors for light (i.e., shorter statures and less persistent clonal connections) than locally persistent species, potentially explaining why these species arrived to new sites but did not establish locally persistent adult populations. Our study is the first to combine seed, seedling, and adult survey data across sites to rigorously characterize how seed dispersal and local filtering govern community membership and shape climate-associated vegetation patterns.

Plant traits and vegetation data from climate warming experiments along an 1100 m elevation gradient in Gongga Mountains, China.

Functional trait data enhance climate change research by linking climate change, biodiversity response, and ecosystem functioning, and by enabling comparison between systems sharing few taxa. Across four sites along a 3000-4130 m a.s.l. gradient spanning 5.3 °C in growing season temperature in Mt. Gongga, Sichuan, China, we collected plant functional trait and vegetation data from control plots, open top chambers (OTCs), and reciprocally transplanted vegetation turfs. Over five years, we recorded vascular plant composition in 140 experimental treatment and control plots. We collected trait data associated with plant resource use, growth, and life history strategies (leaf area, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf C, N and P content and C and N isotopes) from local populations and from experimental treatments. The database consists of 6,671 plant records and 36,743 trait measurements (increasing the trait data coverage of the regional flora by 500%) covering 11 traits and 193 plant taxa (ca. 50% of which have no previous published trait data) across 37 families.