Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

C-reactive protein modifies lipoprotein(a)-related risk for coronary heart disease: the BiomarCaRE project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent investigations have suggested an interdependence of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)]-related risk for cardiovascular disease with background inflammatory burden. The aim the present analysis was to investigate whether high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) modulates the association between Lp(a) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. METHODS: Data from 71 678 participants from 8 European prospective population-based cohort studies were used (65 661 without/6017 with established CHD at baseline; median follow-up 9.8/13.8 years, respectively). Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models were calculated according to accompanying hsCRP concentration (<2 and ≥2 mg/L). RESULTS: Among CHD-free individuals, increased Lp(a) levels were associated with incident CHD irrespective of hsCRP concentration: fully adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratios [sHRs (95% confidence interval)] for the highest vs. lowest fifth of Lp(a) distribution were 1.45 (1.23-1.72) and 1.48 (1.23-1.78) for a hsCRP group of <2 and ≥2 mg/L, respectively, with no interaction found between these two biomarkers on CHD risk (Pinteraction = 0.82). In those with established CHD, similar associations were seen only among individuals with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/L [1.34 (1.03-1.76)], whereas among participants with a hsCRP concentration <2 mg/L, there was no clear association between Lp(a) and future CHD events [1.29 (0.98-1.71)] (highest vs. lowest fifth, fully adjusted models; Pinteraction = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: While among CHD-free individuals Lp(a) was significantly associated with incident CHD regardless of hsCRP, in participants with CHD at baseline, Lp(a) was related to recurrent CHD events only in those with residual inflammatory risk. These findings might guide adequate selection of high-risk patients for forthcoming Lp(a)-targeting compounds.

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

An arrhythmogenic metabolite in atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Long-chain acyl-carnitines (ACs) are potential arrhythmogenic metabolites. Their role in atrial fibrillation (AF) remains incompletely understood. Using a systems medicine approach, we assessed the contribution of C18:1AC to AF by analysing its in vitro effects on cardiac electrophysiology and metabolism, and translated our findings into the human setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Human iPSC-derived engineered heart tissue was exposed to C18:1AC. A biphasic effect on contractile force was observed: short exposure enhanced contractile force, but elicited spontaneous contractions and impaired Ca2+ handling. Continuous exposure provoked an impairment of contractile force. In human atrial mitochondria from AF individuals, C18:1AC inhibited respiration. In a population-based cohort as well as a cohort of patients, high C18:1AC serum concentrations were associated with the incidence and prevalence of AF. CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence for an arrhythmogenic potential of the metabolite C18:1AC. The metabolite interferes with mitochondrial metabolism, thereby contributing to contractile dysfunction and shows predictive potential as novel circulating biomarker for risk of AF.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. METHODS: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01). CONCLUSION: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Drinking alcohol in moderation is associated with lower rate of all-cause mortality in individuals with higher rather than lower educational level: findings from the MORGAM project.

The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and alcohol-related diseases has been widely explored. Less is known, however, on whether the association of moderate drinking with all-cause mortality is modified by educational level (EL). Using harmonized data from 16 cohorts in the MORGAM Project (N = 142,066) the association of pattern of alcohol intake with hazard of all-cause mortality across EL (lower = primary-school; middle = secondary-school; higher = university/college degree) was assessed using multivariable Cox-regression and spline curves. A total of 16,695 deaths occurred in 11.8 years (median). In comparison with life-long abstainers, participants drinking 0.1-10 g/d of ethanol had 13% (HR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.74-1.02), 11% (HR = 0.89; 0.84-0.95) and 5% (HR = 0.95; 0.89-1.02) lower rate of death in higher, middle and lower EL, respectively. Conversely, drinkers > 20 g/d had 1% (HR = 1.01; 0.82-1.25), 10% (HR = 1.10; 1.02-1.19) and 17% (HR = 1.17; 1.09-1.26) higher rate of death. The association of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality was nonlinear, with a different J-shape by EL levels. It was consistent across both sexes and in various approaches of measuring alcohol consumption, including combining quantity and frequency and it was more evident when the beverage of preference was wine. We observed that drinking in moderation (≤ 10 g/d) is associated with lower mortality rate more evidently in individuals with higher EL than in people with lower EL, while heavy drinking is associated with higher mortality rate more evidently in individuals with lower EL than in people with higher EL, suggesting that advice on reducing alcohol intake should especially target individuals of low EL.

Application of High-Sensitivity Troponin in Suspected Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding high-sensitivity troponin concentrations in patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of myocardial infarction may be useful in determining the probability of myocardial infarction and subsequent 30-day outcomes. METHODS: In 15 international cohorts of patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of myocardial infarction, we determined the concentrations of high-sensitivity troponin I or high-sensitivity troponin T at presentation and after early or late serial sampling. The diagnostic and prognostic performance of multiple high-sensitivity troponin cutoff combinations was assessed with the use of a derivation-validation design. A risk-assessment tool that was based on these data was developed to estimate the risk of index myocardial infarction and of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at 30 days. RESULTS: Among 22,651 patients (9604 in the derivation data set and 13,047 in the validation data set), the prevalence of myocardial infarction was 15.3%. Lower high-sensitivity troponin concentrations at presentation and smaller absolute changes during serial sampling were associated with a lower likelihood of myocardial infarction and a lower short-term risk of cardiovascular events. For example, high-sensitivity troponin I concentrations of less than 6 ng per liter and an absolute change of less than 4 ng per liter after 45 to 120 minutes (early serial sampling) resulted in a negative predictive value of 99.5% for myocardial infarction, with an associated 30-day risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death of 0.2%; a total of 56.5% of the patients would be classified as being at low risk. These findings were confirmed in an external validation data set. CONCLUSIONS: A risk-assessment tool, which we developed to integrate the high-sensitivity troponin I or troponin T concentration at emergency department presentation, its dynamic change during serial sampling, and the time between the obtaining of samples, was used to estimate the probability of myocardial infarction on emergency department presentation and 30-day outcomes. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research [DZHK]; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00470587, NCT02355457, NCT01852123, NCT01994577, and NCT03227159; and Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry numbers, ACTRN12611001069943, ACTRN12610000766011, ACTRN12613000745741, and ACTRN12611000206921.).

Associations of the vasoactive peptides CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM with incident type 2 diabetes: results from the BiomarCaRE Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Endothelin-1 (ET-1) and adrenomedullin (ADM) are commonly known as vasoactive peptides that regulate vascular homeostasis. Less recognised is the fact that both peptides could affect glucose metabolism. Here, we investigated whether ET-1 and ADM, measured as C-terminal-proET-1 (CT-proET-1) and mid-regional-proADM (MR-proADM), respectively, were associated with incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Based on the population-based Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) Consortium data, we performed a prospective cohort study to examine associations of CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM with incident type 2 diabetes in 12,006 participants. During a median follow-up time of 13.8 years, 862 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The associations were examined in Cox proportional hazard models. Additionally, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses using published data. RESULTS: CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes. The multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CI)] were 1.10 [1.03; 1.18], P = 0.008 per 1-SD increase of CT-proET-1 and 1.11 [1.02; 1.21], P = 0.016 per 1-SD increase of log MR-proADM, respectively. We observed a stronger association of MR-proADM with incident type 2 diabetes in obese than in non-obese individuals (P-interaction with BMI < 0.001). The HRs [95%CIs] were 1.19 [1.05; 1.34], P = 0.005 and 1.02 [0.90; 1.15], P = 0.741 in obese and non-obese individuals, respectively. Our Mendelian randomisation analyses yielded a significant association of CT-proET-1, but not of MR-proADM with type 2 diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: Higher concentrations of CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM are associated with incident type 2 diabetes, but our Mendelian randomisation analysis suggests a probable causal link for CT-proET-1 only. The association of MR-proADM seems to be modified by body composition.

Influence of geographical latitude on vitamin D status: cross-sectional results from the BiomarCaRE consortium.

Even though sunlight is viewed as the most important determinant of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status, several European studies have observed higher 25(OH)D concentrations among north-Europeans than south-Europeans. We studied the association between geographical latitude (derived from ecological data) and 25(OH)D status in six European countries using harmonised immunoassay data from 81 084 participants in the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project (male sex 48·9 %; median age 50·8 years; examination period 1984-2014). Quantile regression models, adjusted for age, sex, decade and calendar week of sampling and time from sampling to analysis, were used for between-country comparisons. Up until the median percentile, the ordering of countries by 25(OH)D status (from highest to lowest) was as follows: Sweden (at 65·6-63·8°N), Germany (at 48·4°N), Finland (at 65·0-60·2°N), Italy (at 45·6-41·5°N), Scotland (at 58·2-55·1°N) and Spain (at 41·5°N). From the 75th percentile and upwards, Finland had higher values than Germany. As an example, using the Swedish cohort as a comparator, the median 25(OH)D concentration was 3·03, 3·28, 5·41, 6·54 and 9·28 ng/ml lower in the German, Finnish, Italian, Scottish and Spanish cohort, respectively (P-value < 0·001 for all comparisons). The ordering of countries was highly consistent in subgroup analyses by sex, age, and decade and season of sampling. In conclusion, we confirmed the previous observation of a north-to-south gradient of 25(OH)D status in Europe, with higher percentile values among north-Europeans than south-Europeans.

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes.

AIMS: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.

Prevalent diabetes and risk of total, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers in an ageing population: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether associations between prevalent diabetes and cancer risk are pertinent to older adults and whether associations differ across subgroups of age, body weight status or levels of physical activity. METHODS: We harmonised data from seven prospective cohort studies of older individuals in Europe and the United States participating in the CHANCES consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate the associations of prevalent diabetes with cancer risk (all cancers combined, and for colorectum, prostate and breast). We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts using pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 667,916 individuals were included with an overall median (P25-P75) age at recruitment of 62.3 (57-67) years. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 114,404 total cancer cases were ascertained. Diabetes was not associated with the risk of all cancers combined (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86-1.04; I2 = 63.3%). Diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk in men (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26; I2 = 0%) and a similar HR in women (1.13; 95% CI: 0.82-1.56; I2 = 46%), but with a confidence interval including the null. Diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.85; I2 = 0%), but not with postmenopausal breast cancer (HR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89-1.03; I2 = 0%). In exploratory subgroup analyses, diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk only in men with overweight or obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalent diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk and inversely associated with prostate cancer risk in older Europeans and Americans.

Diabetes status-related differences in risk factors and mediators of heart failure in the general population: results from the MORGAM/BiomarCaRE consortium.

BACKGROUND: The risk of heart failure among diabetic individuals is high, even under tight glycemic control. The correlates and mediators of heart failure risk in individuals with diabetes need more elucidation in large population-based cohorts with long follow-up times and a wide panel of biologically relevant biomarkers. METHODS: In a population-based sample of 3834 diabetic and 90,177 non-diabetic individuals, proportional hazards models and mediation analysis were used to assess the relation of conventional heart failure risk factors and biomarkers with incident heart failure. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 13.8 years, a total of 652 (17.0%) and 5524 (6.1%) cases of incident heart failure were observed in participants with and without diabetes, respectively. 51.4% were women and the mean age at baseline was 48.7 (standard deviation [SD] 12.5) years. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for heart failure among diabetic individuals was 2.70 (95% confidence interval, 2.49-2.93) compared to non-diabetic participants. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox models, conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors, such as smoking (diabetes: HR 2.07 [1.59-2.69]; non-diabetes: HR 1.85 [1.68-2.02]), BMI (diabetes: HR 1.30 [1.18-1.42]; non-diabetes: HR 1.40 [1.35-1.47]), baseline myocardial infarction (diabetes: HR 2.06 [1.55-2.75]; non-diabetes: HR 2.86 [2.50-3.28]), and baseline atrial fibrillation (diabetes: HR 1.51 [0.82-2.80]; non-diabetes: HR 2.97 [2.21-4.00]) had the strongest associations with incident heart failure. In addition, biomarkers for cardiac strain (represented by nT-proBNP, diabetes: HR 1.26 [1.19-1.34]; non-diabetes: HR 1.43 [1.39-1.47]), myocardial injury (hs-TnI, diabetes: HR 1.10 [1.04-1.16]; non-diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.10-1.16]), and inflammation (hs-CRP, diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.03-1.24]; non-diabetes: HR 1.29 [1.25-1.34]) were also associated with incident heart failure. In general, all these associations were equally strong in non-diabetic and diabetic individuals. However, the strongest mediators of heart failure in diabetes were the direct effect of diabetes status itself (relative effect share 43.1% [33.9-52.3] and indirect effects (effect share 56.9% [47.7-66.1]) mediated by obesity (BMI, 13.2% [10.3-16.2]), cardiac strain/volume overload (nT-proBNP, 8.4% [-0.7-17.4]), and hyperglycemia (glucose, 12.0% [4.2-19.9]). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the main mediators of heart failure in diabetes are obesity, hyperglycemia, and cardiac strain/volume overload. Conventional cardiovascular risk factors are strongly related to incident heart failure, but these associations are not stronger in diabetic than in non-diabetic individuals. Active measurement of relevant biomarkers could potentially be used to improve prevention and prediction of heart failure in high-risk diabetic patients.

Association of glycated hemoglobin A1c levels with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population: results from the BiomarCaRE (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe) consortium.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers may contribute to improved cardiovascular risk estimation. Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used to monitor the quality of diabetes treatment. Its strength of association with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population remains uncertain. This study aims to assess the association of HbA1c with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. METHODS: Data from six prospective population-based cohort studies across Europe comprising 36,180 participants were analyzed. HbA1c was evaluated in conjunction with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) for association with cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, and overall mortality in subjects without diabetes (N = 32,496) and with diabetes (N = 3684). RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier curves showed higher event rates with increasing HbA1c levels (log-rank-test: p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between HbA1c (in mmol/mol) in the total study population and the examined outcomes. Thus, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.31, p = 0.02) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.24, p = 0.01) for CVD incidence, and 1.09 (95% CI 1.02-1.17, p = 0.01) for overall mortality was observed per 10 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c. The association with CVD incidence and overall mortality was also observed in study participants without diabetes with increased HbA1c levels (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.25, p = 0.04) and HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.20, p = 0.02) respectively. HbA1c cut-off values of 39.9 mmol/mol (5.8%), 36.6 mmol/mol (5.5%), and 38.8 mmol/mol (5.7%) for cardiovascular mortality, CVD incidence, and overall mortality, showed also an increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: HbA1c is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality, overall mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general European population. A mostly monotonically increasing relationship was observed between HbA1c levels and outcomes. Elevated HbA1c levels were associated with cardiovascular disease incidence and overall mortality in participants without diabetes underlining the importance of HbA1c levels in the overall population.

Cardiac Troponin I and Incident Stroke in European Cohorts: Insights From the BiomarCaRE Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge, but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes are scarce. METHODS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82 881 individuals (median age, 50.7 years; 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from 9 prospective European community cohorts. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for overoptimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3033 individuals were diagnosed with incident nonfatal or fatal stroke (n=1654 ischemic strokes, n=612 hemorrhagic strokes, and n=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models, hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.10-1.21]), ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09-1.21]), and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.20]). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C indices, 0.809, 0.840, and 0.736 for overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C index significantly but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate 10-year risk (5%-20%), the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.038 (P=0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research.

Contribution of cystatin C- and creatinine-based definitions of chronic kidney disease to cardiovascular risk assessment in 20 population-based and 3 disease cohorts: the BiomarCaRE project.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease has emerged as a strong cardiovascular risk factor, and in many current guidelines, it is already considered as a coronary heart disease (CHD) equivalent. Routinely, creatinine has been used as the main marker of renal function, but recently, cystatin C emerged as a more promising marker. The aim of this study was to assess the comparative cardiovascular and mortality risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using cystatin C-based and creatinine-based equations of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants of population-based and disease cohorts. METHODS: The present study has been conducted within the BiomarCaRE project, with harmonized data from 20 population-based cohorts (n = 76,954) from 6 European countries and 3 cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohorts (n = 4982) from Germany. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) for the various CKD definitions with adverse outcomes and mortality after adjustment for the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) variables and study center. Main outcome measures were cardiovascular diseases, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of CKD stage 3-5 by creatinine- and cystatin C-based eGFR, respectively, was 3.3% and 7.4% in the population-based cohorts and 13.9% and 14.4% in the disease cohorts. CKD was an important independent risk factor for subsequent CVD events and mortality. For example, in the population-based cohorts, the HR for CVD mortality was 1.72 (95% CI 1.53 to 1.92) with creatinine-based CKD and it was 2.14 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.40) based on cystatin-based CKD compared to participants without CKD. In general, the HRs were higher for cystatin C-based CKD compared to creatinine-based CKD, for all three outcomes and risk increased clearly below the conventional threshold for CKD, also in older adults. Net reclassification indices were larger for a cystatin-C based CKD definition. Differences in HRs (between the two CKD measures) in the disease cohorts were less pronounced than in the population-based cohorts. CONCLUSION: CKD is an important risk factor for subsequent CVD events and total mortality. However, point estimates of creatinine- and cystatin C-based CKD differed considerably between low- and high-risk populations. Especially in low-risk settings, the use of cystatin C-based CKD may result in more accurate risk estimates and have better prognostic value.

Assessment of causality of natriuretic peptides and atrial fibrillation and heart failure: a Mendelian randomization study in the FINRISK cohort.

AIMS: Natriuretic peptides are extensively studied biomarkers for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF). Their role in the pathogenesis of both diseases is not entirely understood and previous studies several single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the NPPA-NPPB locus associated with natriuretic peptides have been identified. We investigated the causal relationship between natriuretic peptides and AF as well as HF using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS AND RESULTS: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (N = 6669), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) (N = 6674), and mid-regional pro atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) (N = 6813) were measured in the FINRISK 1997 cohort. N = 30 common SNPs related to NT-proBNP, BNP, and MR-proANP were selected from studies. We performed six Mendelian randomizations for all three natriuretic peptide biomarkers and for both outcomes, AF and HF, separately. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on multiple SNPs were used as genetic instrumental variable in Mendelian randomizations. Polygenic risk scores were significantly associated with the three natriuretic peptides. Polygenic risk scores were not significantly associated with incident AF nor HF. Most cardiovascular risk factors showed significant confounding percentages, but no association with PRS. A causal relation except for small causal betas is unlikely. CONCLUSION: In our Mendelian randomization approach, we confirmed an association between common genetic variation at the NPPA-NPPB locus and natriuretic peptides. A strong causal relationship between natriuretic peptides and incidence of AF as well as HF at the community-level was ruled out. Therapeutic approaches targeting natriuretic peptides will therefore very likely work through indirect mechanisms.

Temporal relations between atrial fibrillation and ischaemic stroke and their prognostic impact on mortality.

AIMS: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.

NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) and the Risk of Stroke.

Background and Purpose- NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and a marker of cardiac function used in the detection of heart failure. Given the link between cardiac dysfunction and stroke, NT-proBNP is a candidate marker of stroke risk. Our aim was to evaluate the association of NT-proBNP with stroke and to determine the predictive value beyond a panel of established risk factors. Methods- Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe-Consortium, we analyzed data of 58 173 participants (50% men; mean age 52 y) free of stroke from 6 community-based cohorts. NT-proBNP measurements were performed in the central Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe laboratory. The outcomes considered were total stroke and subtypes of stroke (ischemic/hemorrhagic). Results- During a median follow-up time of 7.9 years, we observed 1550 stroke events (1176 ischemic). Increasing quarters of the NT-proBNP distribution were associated with increasing risk of stroke ( P for trend <0.0001; multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for risk factors and cardiac diseases). Individuals in the highest NT-proBNP quarter (NT-proBNP >82.2 pg/mL) had 2-fold (95% CI, 75%-151%) greater risk of stroke than individuals in the lowest quarter (NT-proBNP <20.4 pg/mL). The association remained unchanged when adjusted for interim coronary events during follow-up, and though it was somewhat heterogeneous across cohorts, it was highly homogenous according to cardiovascular risk profile or subtypes of stroke. The addition of NT-proBNP to a reference model increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.006 ( P=0.0005), yielded a categorical net reclassification improvement of 2.0% in events and 1.4% in nonevents and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.007. Conclusions- In European individuals free of stroke, levels of NT-proBNP are positively associated with risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, independently from several other risk factors and conditions. The addition of NT-proBNP to variables of established risk scores improves prediction of stroke, with a medium effect size.