The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Dynamics of overdose and non-overdose mortality among people living with HIV amidst the illicit drug toxicity crisis in British Columbia.

We sought to characterize overdose and non-overdose mortality among PLWH amidst the illicit drug toxicity crisis in British Columbia, Canada. A population-based analysis of PLWH (age ≥19) in British Columbia accessing healthcare from April 1996 to March 2017 was conducted using data from the Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention of HIV/AIDS (STOP HIV/AIDS) cohort linkage. Underlying causes of deaths were stratified into overdose and non-overdose causes. We compared (bivariate analysis) health-related characteristics and prescription history between PLWH died of overdose and non-overdose causes between April 2009 and March 2017. Among 9,180 PLWH, we observed 962 deaths (142 [14.7%] overdoses; 820 [85.2%] other causes). Compared to those who died from other causes, those who died of overdose were significantly younger (median age [Q, Q3]: 46 years [42, 52] vs. 54 years [48, 63]); had an indication of chronic pain (35.9% vs. 27.1%) and hepatitis C virus (64.8% vs. 50.4%), but fewer experienced hospitalization in the year before death. PLWH who died were most likely to be prescribed with opioids (>50%) and least likely with opioid agonist therapy (<10%) in a year before death. These findings highlight the syndemic of substance use, HCV, and chronic pain, and how the crisis is unqiuely impacting females and younger people.

Hospital Readmissions Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada, 2005-2018: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission trends for persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) in North America in the context of policy changes, improved antiretroviral therapy (ART), and aging are not well-known. We examined readmissions during 2005-2018 among adult PWH in NA-ACCORD. METHODS: Linear risk regression estimated calendar trends in 30-day readmissions, adjusted for demographics, CD4 count, AIDS history, virologic suppression (<400 copies/mL), and cohort. RESULTS: We examined 20 189 hospitalizations among 8823 PWH (73% cisgender men, 38% White, 38% Black). PWH hospitalized in 2018 versus 2005 had higher median age (54 vs 44 years), CD4 count (469 vs 274 cells/µL), and virologic suppression (83% vs 49%). Unadjusted 30-day readmissions decreased from 20.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-22.3%) in 2005 to 16.3% (95% CI, 14.1%-18.5%) in 2018. Absolute annual trends were -0.34% (95% CI, -.48% to -.19%) in unadjusted and -0.19% (95% CI, -.35% to -.02%) in adjusted analyses. By index hospitalization reason, there were significant adjusted decreases only for cardiovascular and psychiatric hospitalizations. Readmission reason was most frequently in the same diagnostic category as the index hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Readmissions decreased over 2005-2018 but remained higher than the general population's. Significant decreases after adjusting for CD4 count and virologic suppression suggest that factors alongside improved ART contributed to lower readmissions. Efforts are needed to further prevent readmissions in PWH.

Optimizing Treatment for Human Immunodeficiency Virus to Improve Clinical Outcomes Using Precision Medicine.

In first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, some subgroups of patients may respond better to an efavirenz-based regimen than an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimen, or vice versa, due to patient characteristics modifying treatment effects. Using data based on nearly 16,000 patients from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design from 2009-2016, statistical methods for precision medicine were employed to estimate an optimal treatment rule that minimizes the 5-year risk of the composite outcome of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses, serious non-AIDS events, and all-cause mortality. The treatment rules considered were functions that recommend either an efavirenz- or InSTI-based regimen conditional on baseline patient characteristics such as demographic information, laboratory results, and health history. The estimated 5-year risk under the estimated optimal treatment rule was 10.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6, 11.3), corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of 2.3% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.8) when compared with recommending an efavirenz-based regimen for all patients and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.0, 4.2) when compared with recommending an InSTI-based regimen for all. Tailoring ART to individual patient characteristics may reduce 5-year risk of the composite outcome compared with assigning all patients the same drug regimen.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America.

BACKGROUND: The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality. METHODS: Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018. RESULTS: Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

Use of Gay Chatlines and Online Dating Platforms as Potential Mediators or Moderators in the Relationship Between Loneliness, Self-Rated Attractiveness and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Acquisition Risk Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men in Vancouver, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) remain disproportionately affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Interaction between psychosocial factors likely plays a role in HIV acquisition risk. We aimed to analyze the association of loneliness and self-rated attractiveness with HIV acquisition risk, and determine whether these associations were mediated by gay telephone chatlines or online dating platforms. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included HIV-negative gbMSM 16 years or older enrolled into the Momentum Health Study from February 2012 to February 2015. Loneliness, self-rated attractiveness (exposures) and use of gay chatlines or online dating platforms (mediators) were assessed through self-interviews. Human immunodeficiency virus acquisition risk (outcome) was assessed by the HIV Incidence Risk Index. Weighted logistic regression modeled the association and moderation effect between exposures and outcome. Mediation models estimated 3-way direct effect among exposures, mediators, and outcome. RESULTS: Of 542 gbMSM, those who were lonely (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.54; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.04-2.28) and attractive (aOR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.04-2.76) had increased odds for HIV acquisition risk. Our moderation analysis demonstrated a heightened joint effect among lonely and attractive participants (aOR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.08-2.65). Use of gay telephone chatlines or online dating platforms mediated 30.5% of the association between loneliness and HIV acquisition risk, but did not mediate attractiveness and HIV acquisition risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the provision of interventions focusing on mental health support and safer sex practices through gay telephone chatlines or online dating platforms is promising to help alleviate the HIV burden among gbMSM.

Prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C infection amongst men who have sex with men in a population-based pre-exposure prophylaxis program in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at risk for sexually-transmitted hepatitis C (HCV). Evidence for HCV infection in the context of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use in North America is limited. We sought to characterize baseline HCV prevalence and incidence in MSM receiving PrEP in British Columbia (BC), Canada. METHODS: We followed individuals in the BC PrEP program from January 2018 to August 2019. We evaluated baseline prevalence and incident seroconversions (newly positive HCV antibody). A multivariable logistic regression model was performed in MSM for factors associated with HCV prevalence at enrollment, including reported prior sexually transmitted infection (STI), HIV Incidence Risk Index for MSM score, PrEP use because of a partner living with HIV, and location of residence. RESULTS: The median age of the cohort was 33 years, 98.3% male, with 3058 person years (PY) of follow-up. Baseline HCV prevalence was 0.82% (31/3907 MSM enrollees) and HCV incidence (n = 3) was 0.15 per 100 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.45). In multivariable analysis, initiating PrEP because of a partner living with HIV (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.02; 95% CI 1.87-13.47) and prior STI (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.04-5.24) were associated with positive HCV status. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline HCV prevalence and incidence was low amongst MSM in a population-based PrEP program in BC, Canada. HCV was associated with bridging from populations living with HIV and evidence of a reported prior STI as a PrEP indicator condition amongst MSM. PrEP initiation may be an opportunity for linkage to HCV screening and treatment.

The impact of lookback windows on the prevalence and incidence of chronic diseases among people living with HIV: an exploration in administrative health data in Canada.

BACKGROUND: We described the impact of different lengths of lookback window (LW), a retrospective time period to observe diagnoses in administrative data, on the prevalence and incidence of eight chronic diseases. METHODS: Our study populations included people living with HIV (N = 5151) and 1:5 age-sex-matched HIV-negative individuals (N = 25,755) in British Columbia, Canada, with complete follow-up between 1996 and 2012. We measured period prevalence and incidence of diseases in 2012 using LWs ranging from 1 to 16 years. Cases were deemed prevalent if identified in 2012 or within a defined LW, and incident if newly identified in 2012 with no previous cases detected within a defined LW. Chronic disease cases were ascertained using published case-finding algorithms applied to population-based provincial administrative health datasets. RESULTS: Overall, using cases identified by the full 16-year LW as the reference, LWs ≥8 years and ≥ 4 years reduced the proportion of misclassified prevalent and incidence cases of most diseases to < 20%, respectively. The impact of LWs varied across diseases and populations. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscored the importance of carefully choosing LWs and demonstrated data-driven approaches that may inform these choices. To improve comparability of prevalence and incidence estimates across different settings, we recommend transparent reporting of the rationale and limitations of chosen LWs.

Sexual minority status modifies the association between HIV risk behavior and prevalent mood or anxiety disorders in British Columbia, Canada.

PURPOSE: This study aimed at determining to what extent sexual minority status modifies the association between HIV risk behavior and prevalent mood or anxiety disorder diagnosis in British Columbia (BC), Canada, using a population-based survey. METHODS: This analysis was based on the cross-sectional 2013-2014 Canadian Community Health Survey. The sample was restricted to respondents in BC with valid responses to the survey items considered. A multivariable logistic model, where the behavioral HIV risk score exposure was nested into the sexual minority status modifier, estimated the odds of having a prevalent mood or an anxiety disorder. The behavioral HIV risk score (0, 1, 2, ≥ 3) included the following five measures: (1) age at first intercourse < 14 years, (2) condom use during last intercourse, (3) history of sexually transmitted infections, (5) number of sexual partners in the past 12 months (< 4, ≥ 4), and substance use in the past 12 months. RESULTS: Of the weighted sample (2,521,252), 97% (95% confidence interval (CI) 97-98) were heterosexual, while 3% (95% CI 2-3) were lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB). The prevalence of a mood or anxiety disorder diagnosis was 12% (95% CI 11-13). For every 1-level increment in the behavioral HIV risk score, the adjusted odds ratio of having a prevalent mood or anxiety disorder diagnosis was 1.29 (95% CI 1.03-1.54) for heterosexual respondents and 2.37 (95% CI 1.84-2.90) for LGB respondents. CONCLUSION: Sexual minority status modified the relationship between HIV risk behavior and prevalent mood or anxiety disorders, with a stronger association among LGB respondents. Healthcare providers should prioritize integrated care that addresses the intersectionality between sexual risk, substance use, and mood or anxiety disorders.

Mortality Among Persons Entering HIV Care Compared With the General U.S. Population : An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population. OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PARTICIPANTS: 82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. MEASUREMENTS: Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. RESULTS: Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017. LIMITATION: Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors. CONCLUSION: Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Clinical Effectiveness of Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Regimens Among Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies in the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimens are now recommended as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for adults with human immunodeficiency virus, but evidence on long-term clinical effectiveness of InSTI-based regimens remains limited. We examined whether InSTI-based regimens improved longer-term clinical outcomes. METHODS: We included participants from clinical cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design who initiated their first ART regimen, containing either InSTI (ie, raltegravir, dolutegravir, and elvitegravir-cobicistat) or efavirenz (EFV) as an active comparator, between 2009 and 2016. We estimated observational analogs of 6-year intention-to-treat and per-protocol risks, risk differences (RDs), and hazard ratios (HRs) for the composite outcome of AIDS, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease, end-stage liver disease, or death. RESULTS: Of 15 993 participants, 5824 (36%) initiated an InSTI-based and 10 169 (64%) initiated an EFV-based regimen. During the 6-year follow-up, 440 in the InSTI group and 1097 in the EFV group incurred the composite outcome. The estimated 6-year intention-to-treat risks were 14.6% and 14.3% for the InSTI and EFV groups, respectively, corresponding to a RD of 0.3% (95% confidence interval, -2.7% to 3.3%) and a HR of 1.08 (.97-1.19); the estimated 6-year per-protocol risks were 12.2% for the InSTI group and 11.9% for the EFV group, corresponding to a RD of 0.3% (-3.0% to 3.7%) and a HR of 1.09 (.96-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: InSTI- and EFV-based initial ART regimens had similar 6-year composite clinical outcomes. The risk of adverse clinical outcomes remains substantial even when initiating modern ART.

Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus, Weight Gain, and Their Relationships With Integrase Inhibitor-Based Initial Antiretroviral Therapy Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with greater weight gain among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), though metabolic consequences, such as diabetes mellitus (DM), are unclear. We examined the impact of initial cART regimen and weight on incident DM in a large North American HIV cohort (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: cART-naive adults (≥18 years) initiating INSTI-, protease inhibitor (PI)-, or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimens from January 2007 through December 2017 who had weight measured 12 (±6) months after treatment initiation contributed time until clinical DM, virologic failure, cART regimen switch, administrative close, death, or loss to follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident DM by cART class. Mediation analyses, with 12-month weight as mediator, similarly adjusted for all covariates. RESULTS: Among 22 884 eligible individuals, 47% started NNRTI-, 30% PI-, and 23% INSTI-based cART with median follow-up of 3.0, 2.3, and 1.6 years, respectively. Overall, 722 (3%) developed DM. Persons starting INSTIs vs NNRTIs had incident DM risk (HR, 1.17 [95% CI, .92-1.48]), similar to PI vs NNRTI initiators (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.07-1.51]). This effect was most pronounced for raltegravir (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.06-1.91]) vs NNRTI initiators. The INSTI-DM association was attenuated (HR, 1.03 [95% CI, .71-1.49] vs NNRTIs) when accounting for 12-month weight. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating first cART regimens with INSTIs or PIs vs NNRTIs may confer greater risk of DM, likely mediated through weight gain.

Social Isolation and Mortality Among People Living with HIV in British Columbia, Canada.

Social isolation, a risk factor for poor health within the general population, may be exacerbated by unique challenges faced by people living with HIV (PLHIV). This analysis examines the association between social isolation and all-cause mortality among a cohort of PLHIV experiencing multiple social vulnerabilities. The analytical sample included 936 PLHIV ≥ 19 years, living in British Columbia, Canada, and enrolled in the Longitudinal Investigation into Supportive and Ancillary Health Services (LISA) Study (2007-2010). Participants were classified as Socially Connected (SC), Minimally Isolated (MI) or Socially Isolated (SI) via latent class analysis. Cross-sectional survey data was linked to longitudinal clinical data from a provincial HIV treatment database. Mortality was assessed longitudinally up to and including December 31st, 2017. Through multivariable logistic regression, an association between SI and all-cause mortality was found (adjusted OR: 1.48; 95% CI 1.08, 2.01). These findings emphasize the need to mitigate effects of social isolation among PLHIV.

Correlates of social isolation among people living with HIV in British Columbia, Canada.

Our study aims to define and identify correlates of social isolation among people living with HIV (PLHIV). The Longitudinal Investigation into Supportive and Ancillary health services (LISA) study provided a cross-sectional analytic sample of 996 PLHIV in British Columbia, Canada (sampled between 2007 and 2010). Individuals marginalized by socio-structural inequities were oversampled; sampling bias was addressed through inverse probability of participation weighting. Through latent class analysis, three groups were identified: Socially Connected (SC) (n = 364, 37%), Minimally Isolated (MI) (n = 540, 54%) and Socially Isolated (SI) (n = 92, 9%). Correlates of the SI and MI classes, determined through multivariable multinomial regression using the SC class as a reference, include: recent violence (aOR 1.61, 95%CI 1.28-2.02 [MI vs. SC]; aOR 2.04, 95%CI 1.41-2.96 [SI vs. SC]) and a mental health diagnosis (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.31-1.72 [MI vs. SC]; aOR 1.43, 95%CI 1.11-1.83 [SI vs. SC]). Women (aOR 0.47; 95%CI 0.32-0.68 [SI vs. SC]), individuals of Indigenous ancestry (aOR 0.59; 95%CI 0.40-0.87 [SI vs. SC]) and people identifying as gay or lesbian (aOR 0.37; 95%CI 0.26-0.52 [SI vs. SC]) were less likely to experience isolation. These findings highlight the importance of supporting communities fostering connectedness and identifies populations susceptible to isolation.

Associations of substance use, psychosis, and mortality among people living in precarious housing or homelessness: A longitudinal, community-based study in Vancouver, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The "trimorbidity" of substance use disorder and mental and physical illness is associated with living in precarious housing or homelessness. The extent to which substance use increases risk of psychosis and both contribute to mortality needs investigation in longitudinal studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A community-based sample of 437 adults (330 men, mean [SD] age 40.6 [11.2] years) living in Vancouver, Canada, completed baseline assessments between November 2008 and October 2015. Follow-up was monthly for a median 6.3 years (interquartile range 3.1-8.6). Use of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, methamphetamine, and opioids was assessed by interview and urine drug screen; severity of psychosis was also assessed. Mortality (up to November 15, 2018) was assessed from coroner's reports and hospital records. Using data from monthly visits (mean 9.8, SD 3.6) over the first year after study entry, mixed-effects logistic regression analysis examined relationships between risk factors and psychotic features. A past history of psychotic disorder was common (60.9%). Nonprescribed substance use included tobacco (89.0%), alcohol (77.5%), cocaine (73.2%), cannabis (72.8%), opioids (51.0%), and methamphetamine (46.5%). During the same year, 79.3% of participants reported psychotic features at least once. Greater risk was associated with number of days using methamphetamine (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.24, p = 0.001), alcohol (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18, p = 0.04), and cannabis (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.008), adjusted for demographic factors and history of past psychotic disorder. Greater exposure to concurrent month trauma was associated with increased odds of psychosis (adjusted model aOR 1.54, 95% CI 1.19-2.00, p = 0.001). There was no evidence for interactions or reverse associations between psychotic features and time-varying risk factors. During 2,481 total person years of observation, 79 participants died (18.1%). Causes of death were physical illness (40.5%), accidental overdose (35.4%), trauma (5.1%), suicide (1.3%), and unknown (17.7%). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model indicated baseline alcohol dependence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.83, 95% CI 1.09-3.07, p = 0.02), and evidence of hepatic fibrosis (aHR 1.81, 95% CI 1.08-3.03, p = 0.02) were risk factors for mortality. Among those under age 55 years, a history of a psychotic disorder was a risk factor for mortality (aHR 2.38, 95% CI 1.03-5.51, p = 0.04, adjusted for alcohol dependence at baseline, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV], and hepatic fibrosis). The primary study limitation concerns generalizability: conclusions from a community-based, diagnostically heterogeneous sample may not apply to specific diagnostic groups in a clinical setting. Because one-third of participants grew up in foster care or were adopted, useful family history information was not obtainable. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found methamphetamine, alcohol, and cannabis use were associated with higher risk for psychotic features, as were a past history of psychotic disorder, and experiencing traumatic events. We found that alcohol dependence, hepatic fibrosis, and, only among participants <55 years of age, history of a psychotic disorder were associated with greater risk for mortality. Modifiable risk factors in people living in precarious housing or homelessness can be a focus for interventions.

The Impact of Treatment as Prevention on the HIV Epidemic in British Columbia, Canada.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This study proposes to describe the impact of a publicly funded Treatment as Prevention (TasP) strategy in British Columbia (BC), Canada, in decreasing the individual and public health impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic. RECENT FINDINGS: In BC, TasP has been associated with a steady decline in HIV-related morbidity and mortality. At the same time, a demographic transition was observed among people living with HIV (PLWH), with the majority of those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) now ≥ 50 years of age, living with at least one comorbidity, and dying from age-associated comorbidities. We also documented a progressive increase in the proportion of viral load suppression as a result of ART expansion. While the pre-ART CD4 T cell count has increased steadily in recent years, there is still a large proportion of PLWH being diagnosed in later stages of HIV infection. New HIV diagnoses have been rapidly declining, however to a lesser extent among men who have sex with men (MSM), and BC is currently experiencing an increase in infectious syphilis cases in this population. These facts reinforce the effectiveness of TasP in decreasing HIV transmission, but at the same time, it highlights the need for further innovation to enhance the control of HIV and syphilis among MSM. This study supports the development of new approaches that address existing gaps in the TasP strategy in BC, and the future health needs of PLWH.

The impact of HCV co-infection status on healthcare-related utilization among people living with HIV in British Columbia, Canada: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of HCV among those living with HIV remains a major public health challenge. We aimed to characterize trends in healthcare-related visits (HRV) of people living with HIV (PLW-HIV) and those living with HIV and HCV (PLW-HIV/HCV), in British Columbia (BC), and to identify risk factors associated with the highest HRV rates over time. METHODS: Eligible individuals, recruited from the BC Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention of HIV/AIDS population-based retrospective cohort (N = 3955), were ≥ 18 years old, first started combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 01/01/2000-31/12/2013, and were followed for ≥6 months until 31/12/2014. The main outcome was HRV rate. The main exposure was HIV/HCV co-infection status. We built a confounder non-linear mixed effects model, adjusting for several demographic and time-dependent factors. RESULTS: HRV rates have decreased since 2000 in both groups. The overall age-sex standardized HRV rate (per person-year) among PLW-HIV and PLW-HIV/HCV was 21.11 (95% CI 20.96-21.25) and 41.69 (95% CI 41.51-41.88), respectively. The excess in HRV in the co-infected group was associated with late presentation for ART, history of injection drug use, sub-optimal ART adherence and a higher number of comorbidities. The adjusted HRV rate ratio for PLW-HIV/HCV in comparison to PLW-HIV was 1.18 (95% CI 1.13-1.24). CONCLUSIONS: Although HRV rates have decreased over time in both groups, PLW-HIV/HCV had 18% higher HRV than those only living with HIV. Our results highlight several modifiable risk factors that could be targeted as potential means to minimize the disease burden of this population and of the healthcare system.

CD4:CD8 Ratio and CD8 Count as Prognostic Markers for Mortality in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC).

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether CD4:CD8 ratio and CD8 count were prognostic for all-cause, AIDS, and non-AIDS mortality in virologically suppressed patients with high CD4 count. METHODS: We used data from 13 European and North American cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus-infected, antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive adults who started ART during 1996-2010, who were followed from the date they had CD4 count ≥350 cells/µL and were virologically suppressed (baseline). We used stratified Cox models to estimate unadjusted and adjusted (for sex, people who inject drugs, ART initiation year, and baseline age, CD4 count, AIDS, duration of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios for tertiles of CD4:CD8 ratio (0-0.40, 0.41-0.64 [reference], >0.64) and CD8 count (0-760, 761-1138 [reference], >1138 cells/µL) and examined the shape of associations using cubic splines. RESULTS: During 276526 person-years, 1834 of 49865 patients died (249 AIDS-related; 1076 non-AIDS-defining; 509 unknown/unclassifiable deaths). There was little evidence that CD4:CD8 ratio was prognostic for all-cause mortality after adjustment for other factors: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for lower vs middle tertile was 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.25). The association of CD8 count with all-cause mortality was U-shaped: aHR for higher vs middle tertile was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.01-1.26). AIDS-related mortality declined with increasing CD4:CD8 ratio and decreasing CD8 count. There was little evidence that CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count was prognostic for non-AIDS mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort collaboration, the magnitude of adjusted associations of CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count with mortality was too small for them to be useful as independent prognostic markers in virally suppressed patients on ART.

Is there a rural/urban gap in the quality of HIV care for treatment-naïve HIV-positive individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy in British Columbia?

Rurally located people living with HIV (PLWH) face unique challenges associated with remoteness that may negatively affect their HIV care outcomes. The Programmatic Compliance Score (PCS) has been used previously as a quality of care metric, and is predictive of mortality for treatment-naïve individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study looked at whether the rurality of PLWH impacted their PCS. PCS was calculated for PLWH (≥19 years old) initiating cART in British Columbia between 2000 and 2013. Rurality was determined at the time of cART initiation using two methodologies: (1) a categorical postal code method; and (2) the General Practice Rurality Index (GPRI), a score representing an individual's degree of rurality. Ordinal logistic regression modeling was used to assess the relationship between rurality and PCS. Among 4616 PLWH with an evaluable PCS, 176 were classified as rural and 3512 as urban (928 had an unknown postal code). After adjusting for age, sex, hepatitis C status, Indigenous ancestry, and year of cART initiation, categorical rurality was not associated with a worse PCS (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.04; 95% CI: 0.77-1.39). However, an increasing degree of rurality was associated with a worse PCS (AOR (per 10 increase in GPRI) 1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.20). Given that a poor PCS has been shown to be predictive of all-cause mortality for individuals initiating cART, strategies to improve access to HIV care for rural individuals should be evaluated.