Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

Incidence trends of primary liver cancer in different geographical regions of China from 1978 to 2012 and projections to 2032: An age-period-cohort analysis.

China accounted for 45.3% of new cases of primary liver cancer (PLC) worldwide in 2020. While variations in PLC incidence between different regions of China and decreasing incidence in overall China have been reported, incidence patterns have not been thoroughly explored by region. We examined the nearly status and temporal trends of PLC incidence in different geographical regions in China and project future trends. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was estimated for 1978 to 2012 by different geographical regions and gender in China. Age-period-cohort model was adopted to evaluate age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trend of five registries of China (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jiashan, Harbin and Zhongshan), Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to project future trends for 2013 to 2032. PLC incidence in China exhibits marked geographical disparity, with the highest incidence in Southwest China, and gender differences being particularly pronounced in South China. While other registries exhibited decreasing trend, Zhongshan exhibited an increasing trend, with the cohort effect showing a marked upward trend for females born in 1916 to 1949 and males born in 1916 to 1962. During 2013 to 2032, the ASR appears to increase by 86.9% for men and 40.0% for women in Zhongshan, while the remaining registries will decline by around 50%. Since the high incidence of hepatitis B virus infection in early birth cohort, recent rise of nonviral risk factors and the severe aging of the Chinese population, it may be critical to tailor future prevention and control strategies for PLC to the distribution of risk factors in different geographical regions.

Long-term outcomes among ischemic stroke TOAST subtypes: A 12-year Cohort study in China.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in short-term ischemic stroke (IS) prognosis among Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) subtypes were observed. Notably, little is known about the long-term prognosis of different subtypes in China. We aim to investigate the long-term outcome in IS patients and try to explore the potential interactive effects between IS subtypes and antithrombotic therapy. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort of stroke survivors. Patients diagnosed with first-ever IS at the Department of Neurology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University from January 2010 to December 2019 were recruited. They were followed until September 2022 to assess recurrence, mortality, and functional recovery. The multivariate Fine-Gray model assessed stroke recurrence, while Cox regression estimated hazard ratios. Modified Rankin Scale scores(mRS) were analyzed using the generalized linear mixed effects model. RESULTS: At baseline, 589 of 950 participants (62.00 %) were male. The longest follow-up was 150 months, the shortest was 1.5 months, and the median follow-up was 81.0 months. Cardio-embolism (CE) bore the highest mortality risk compared to large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) (HR=4.43,95 %CI 1.61-12.23). Among survivors on anticoagulant therapy, CE exhibited a reduced risk of mortality (HR = 0.18, 95 % CI 0.04-0.80). In function recovery, small artery occlusion (SAO) demonstrated more favorable prognostic outcomes (ß=-2.08, P<0.01, OR=0.13,95 %CI 0.03-0.47). Among survivors taking antiplatelet drugs, SAO demonstrated a slower pace of functional recovery compared to LAA (ß=1.39, P=0.05, OR=3.99,95 %CI 1.01-15.74). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes post-first IS vary among TOAST subtypes. Anticoagulant therapy offers long-term benefits among patients of the CE. However, prolonged administration of antiplatelet drugs among SAO patients may be limited in improving function recovery. Physicians should carefully consider treatment options for different IS subtypes to optimize patient outcomes and stroke care effectiveness.

Association between post-stroke smoking and stroke recurrence in first-ever ischemic stroke survivors: based on a 10-year prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Whether smoking is a risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence in IS survivors is still uncovered, and evidences are sparse. Meanwhile, an add-on effect of clopidogrel was observed in myocardial infarction patients who smoked, but whether the paradox exists in IS patients is still unsolved. The objectives of this study are to explore the association between smoking behavior after index stroke and IS recurrence and to explore whether the paradox exists. METHODS: A prospective cohort of first-ever IS patients was conducted between 2010 and 2019. The prognosis and smoking features of enrolled patients were obtained via telephone follow-up every 3 months. Fine-gray model with interaction terms was applied to measure the relationships between stroke recurrence and smoking behaviors after index stroke and to explore the add-on effect of clopidogrel in smoking patients. RESULTS: There were 171 (24.26%) recurrences and 129 (18.30%) deaths during follow-up in 705 enrolled IS patients. One hundred forty-six (20.71%) patients smoked after index stroke. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of interaction terms between antiplatelet drug and follow-up smoking (smoking status and daily smoking amount) were 1.092 (95% CI: 0.524, 2.276) and 0.985 (95% CI: 0.941, 1.031), respectively. A significantly higher risk of recurrence was observed in patients with a higher daily smoking amount during follow-up (per cigarette), with HR being 1.027 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.052). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking could elevate the risk of IS recurrence, and IS survivor should be advised to quit or smoke less. Add-on effect of clopidogrel may not exist in smoking strokers taking clopidogrel.

Does Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Reduce HIV Risk in Men Who Have Sex with Men?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the evidence on the effect of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) on reducing HIV risk among men who have sex with men (MSM) and assess the limitations of available evidence. RECENT FINDINGS: Individual studies have shown conflicting results, but recent meta-analyses have consistently suggested that VMMC was associated with 7 to 23% reductions in HIV prevalence or incidence in MSM, particularly among a subgroup of men who predominantly practice insertive role in anal sex. Mathematical models have also suggested a moderate population-level impact of VMMC intervention. All original studies have been observational and are subject to confounding and bias. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are needed to provide strong evidence of assessing the efficacy of VMMC on HIV risk among MSM. VMMC is a promising HIV risk reduction tool for MSM. RCTs are needed to evaluate the efficacy of VMMC intervention.

Associations Between the Prevalence, Treatment, Control of Hypertension and Cognitive Trajectories Among Chinese Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between the prevalence, treatment, control of hypertension, and trajectories of cognitive performance among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. DESIGN: An 8-year longitudinal study. SETTING: China. PARTICIPANTS: Chinese middle-aged and older adults. MEASUREMENTS: Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were utilized. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed to identify heterogeneous trajectories of episodic memory and executive function. Multinomial logistic regression models were established to examine the relationships between hypertension status and cognitive trajectories, stratified by sex. RESULTS: Three episodic memory trajectories and four executive function trajectories were identified in males and females. Hypertension prevalence was associated with worse episodic memory and executive function trajectories in females. Compared with treated hypertensives, untreated hypertensives were more likely to have worse executive function trajectories, both in males and females. Among male treated hypertensives, those with uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) had worse episodic memory trajectories compared with their counterparts with controlled at standard targets, while females with uncontrolled BP demonstrated worse executive function trajectories compared with females controlled at standard targets. There was basically no significant difference in cognitive trajectory memberships between individuals with controlled hypertension corresponding to intensive or standard BP targets. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hypertension was associated with worse cognitive trajectories, and the treatment and control of hypertension were related to more favorable cognitive trajectories. Intensive BP control target was not associated with additional benefit beyond the recognized protective effect of standard BP targets on cognitive trajectories.

Association between usual alcohol consumption and risk of falls in middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies exploring usual alcohol consumption and falls risk were scarce in China. In addition, the dose-response relationship has not been explored so far. This study aims to estimate the association between usual alcohol consumption and risk of falls among middle-aged and older Chinese adults based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which is representative of the population of the entire country. METHODS: Baseline survey data in 2015 and follow-up data in 2018 in CHARLS were utilized. Alcohol consumption was calculated in grams per day (gr/day) according to self-reported drinking data and categorized accordingly to The Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (DGC) 2016. Fall was obtained from self-reported information. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the association of usual alcohol consumption with risk of falling. The dose-response relationship was also explored using restricted cubic splines. RESULTS: A total of 12,910 middle-aged and older participants were included from the CHARLS 2015, of which 11,667 were followed up in 2018. We found that former, moderate, and excessive drinkers were at higher fall risk compared to never drinkers (former: OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.46; moderate: OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.06-1.41; excessive: OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.15-1.61) in the longitudinal analysis. Similarly, individuals with moderate and excessive alcohol consumption were at increased risk of falling in the cross-sectional analysis (moderate: OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02-1.37; excessive: OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.11,1.57). No significant increased risk of falls was found for former drinkers (former: OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.96-1.34). We observed a significant non-linear relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that usual alcohol consumption was associated with a higher risk of falls, highlighting the key role of alcohol intake on the fall risk, which needed consideration in developing intervention and prevention strategies for reducing falls among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

The effect of gradually lifting the two-child policy on demographic changes in China.

Low-fertility rate has been a common problem in many industrialized countries. To reverse the declining trend of new births, Chinese government gradually lifted its restrictions on the number of births per family, allowing for a household to have no more than two children. Little is known about the additional births or population increase contributed by the gradual relaxation of birth restrictions. To fill this gap, this quasi-experimental design study including data from 124 regions used the synthetic control method and controlled interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the differences in birth rates and rates of natural population increase between China and its synthetic control following implementation of the two-child policy from 2011 to 2020. A total of 123 regions were included in the control pool. Data collected during 1990-2010 were used to identify the synthetic China for each study outcome. The mean rate differences of birth rates and rates of natural increase between China and synthetic China after two-child policy implementation were 1.16 per 1000 population and 1.02 per 1000, respectively. These rate differences were distinguished from variation due to chance (one-sided pseudo-P-values: P for birth rates = 0.047, P for rates of natural increase = 0.020). However, there were statistically significant annual reductions in the pre-post trend of birth rates and rates of natural increase compared with those of controls of <0.340 per 1000 population per year [P = 0.007, 95% CI = (-0.584, -0.096)] and <0.274 per 1000 per year [P = 0.028, 95% CI = (-0.518, -0.031)]. The results suggested that lifting birth restrictions had a short-term effect on the increase in birth rates and rates of natural population increase. However, birth policy with lifting birth restrictions alone may not have sustained impact on population growth in the long run.

Bidirectional relationship between C-reactive protein and depressive symptoms considering cumulative effect among Chinese middle-aged and older adults.

Introduction: Research examining the bidirectional relationship between C-reactive protein (CRP) and depressive symptoms, while accounting for cumulative effect of repeated episodes of CRP or depressive symptoms, is currently deficient in non-Western populations. Methods: A nationally representative population-based cohort data from the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) was utilized. In bi-directional analysis, we considered both single determinations and two successive determinations of CRP or depressive symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression assessed the association between elevated CRP levels at baseline or repeated episodes of CRP elevations over two successive determinations and subsequent elevated depressive symptoms, and vice versa. Results: Although single determinations of CRP or depressive symptoms yielded non-significant results in both directions, full multivariate models, adjusting for baseline depressive symptoms, socio-demographic characteristics, health-related behaviors, metabolic measures, and health status, revealed a significantly positive association based on two successive determinations of CRP or depressive symptoms. This significant association was observed between cumulative effects of sustained CRP elevations over two successive determinations (2 vs. 0) and subsequent elevated depressive symptoms (OR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.15 to 2.17) and between cumulative effect of repeated episodes of depression (2 vs. 0) and later elevated CRP (OR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.56). Furthermore, sex-stratified analyses confirmed the robustness of these relationships. Conclusion: There are bidirectional associations between depressive symptoms and CRP, driven by the cumulative effect of repeated episodes of CRP or depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older Chinese adults. These findings hold significant clinical implications, highlighting the potential of both anti-inflammatory and anti-depression approaches.

Trajectories of post-stroke quality of life and long-term prognosis: Results from an eleven-year prospective study.

PURPOSE: The relationship between quality of life (QoL) and long-term prognosis in stroke patients is still unclear. We explored physical and mental QoL trajectories during the first six months after stroke and determined the associations between trajectories and long-term prognosis in patients with first-ever ischemic stroke. METHODS: Included were 733 participants from a prospective study. QoL was assessed with the 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12) at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Patients' prognoses (stroke recurrence and death) were identified from 2010 to 2021. The latent class growth model (LCGM) was used to identify distinct trajectories of physical and mental QoL measured over the first 6 months. We employed the Cox model or Fine-Gray model for prognoses to examine the associations between QoL trajectories and prognosis. RESULTS: Five trajectories of physical QoL and five trajectories of mental QoL were identified. For physical QoL of the Poor-Improved, and Moderate-Impaired trajectory versus Moderate-Improved trajectory, the hazard ratio (HR) for death was 2.39 (1.14 to 5.02), and 2.03(0.93 to 4.44); the HR for recurrence was 1.56 (0.83 to 2.94) and 2.33 (1.28 to 4.24). For mental QoL of the Moderate-Impaired trajectory versus the Moderate-Improved trajectory, the HR for death was 2.48 (1.21 to 5.07). The results were robust in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: QoL during the first six months after ischemic stroke can be categorized into distinct groups. Change in QoL was associated with long-term survival. Secondary prevention of recurrent strokes might rely more on improving patients' physical QoL.

Associations between trajectories of depressive symptoms and rate of cognitive decline among Chinese middle-aged and older adults: An 8-year longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between trajectories of depressive symptoms and rate of cognitive decline among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: A population-based cohort data from the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were utilized. The cohort was followed up for 8 years and assessments of depressive symptoms and cognitive performance were conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was conducted to identify heterogeneous trajectories of depressive symptoms. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were performed to examine the associations between trajectories of depressive symptoms and rate of decline in global cognitive function, episodic memory, and executive function. RESULTS: Among 9264 middle-aged and older adults, five depressive symptoms trajectory groups were determined: constantly low (n = 3206, 34.6%), constantly medium (n = 3747, 40.5%), increasing (n = 899, 9.7%), decreasing (n = 929, 10.0%), and constantly high (n = 483, 5.2%). Individuals with increasing depressive symptoms exhibited the fastest decline in global cognitive function and episodic memory, followed by participants reporting constantly high or medium depressive symptoms. A significantly higher rate of decline in executive function was only observed among subjects who had increasing depressive symptoms in comparison with their counterparts with constantly low depressive symptoms. There was no significant difference in rate of cognitive decline between individuals with decreasing depressive symptoms and those demonstrating constantly low depressive symptoms. CONCLUSION: Increasing depressive symptoms co-occurred with the steepest cognitive decline among Chinese middle-aged and older adults, which potentially suggested that interventions targeting to alleviating cognitive decline should be given priority among individuals with deterioration of depressive symptoms.

Cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies based on Chinese diabetes risk score for pre-diabetes in China.

Objective: Studies have shown that screening for pre-diabetes mellitus (pre-DM) is essential to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies that apply the Chinese Diabetes Risk Score (CDRS) to screen for pre-DM in China. Methods: A Markov microsimulation model was conducted from a social perspective, and the input parameters were obtained from published literature or publicly available data. Two screening strategies for pre-DM based on CDRS were built and compared with the control group to determine the cost-effective strategy. The screening strategy of the control group was screening for pre-DM by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) test in adults undergoing annual health examination and no screening in adults without an annual health examination (status quo). Two screening strategies were strategy 1: screening for pre-DM using CDRS in all adults (including with or without an annual health examination); and strategy 2: supplemental self-screening for pre-DM using CDRS in adults without an annual health examination, based on the status quo. We focus on the cumulative prevalence of T2DM and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio which signifies the cost per case of T2DM prevented. We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness from the health system perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the robustness of the results. Results: The costs a case of T2DM prevented for strategy 1 compared with the control group and strategy 2 were $299.67 (95% CI 298.88, 300.46) and $385.89 (95% CI 381.58, 390.20), respectively. In addition, compared with the control group, the cost of strategy 2 to prevent a case of T2DM was $272.23 (95% CI 271.50, 272.96). Conclusions: Screening for pre-DM using CDRS in all adults was the most cost-effective health policy. We suggest that medical institutions replace FPG with CDRS for pre-DM screening; at the same time, self-screening for pre-DM using CDRS is widely promoted among adults without an annual health examination. There were still some disputes about how CDRS is included in the health examination projects, so strategy 2 should be considered as an alternative screening strategy. Findings provide a reference for the application of the CDRS in pre-DM screening and contribute to T2DM prevention.