Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example.

The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

Space observations of cold-cloud phase change.

This study examines the vertically resolved cloud measurements from the cloud-aerosol lidar with orthogonal polarization instrument on Aqua satellite from June 2006 through May 2007 to estimate the extent to which the mixed cloud-phase composition can vary according to the ambient temperature, an important concern for the uncertainty in calculating cloud radiative effects. At -20 degrees C, the global average fraction of supercooled clouds in the total cloud population is found to be about 50% in the data period. Between -10 and -40 degrees C, the fraction is smaller at lower temperatures. However, there are appreciable regional and temporal deviations from the global mean (> +/- 20%) at the isotherm. In the analysis with coincident dust aerosol data from the same instrument, it appears that the variation in the supercooled cloud fraction is negatively correlated with the frequencies of dust aerosols at the -20 degrees C isotherm. This result suggests a possibility that dust particles lifted to the cold cloud layer effectively glaciate supercooled clouds. Observations of radiative flux from the clouds and earth's radiant energy system instrument aboard Terra satellite, as well as radiative transfer model simulations, show that the 20% variation in the supercooled cloud fraction is quantitatively important in cloud radiative effects, especially in shortwave, which are 10-20 W m(-2) for regions of mixed-phase clouds affected by dust. In particular, our results demonstrate that dust, by glaciating supercooled water, can decrease albedo, thus compensating for the increase in albedo due to the dust aerosols themselves. This has important implications for the determination of climate sensitivity.