A common NFKB1 variant detected through antibody analysis in UK Biobank predicts risk of infection and allergy.

Infectious agents contribute significantly to the global burden of diseases through both acute infection and their chronic sequelae. We leveraged the UK Biobank to identify genetic loci that influence humoral immune response to multiple infections. From 45 genome-wide association studies in 9,611 participants from UK Biobank, we identified NFKB1 as a locus associated with quantitative antibody responses to multiple pathogens, including those from the herpes, retro-, and polyoma-virus families. An insertion-deletion variant thought to affect NFKB1 expression (rs28362491), was mapped as the likely causal variant and could play a key role in regulation of the immune response. Using 121 infection- and inflammation-related traits in 487,297 UK Biobank participants, we show that the deletion allele was associated with an increased risk of infection from diverse pathogens but had a protective effect against allergic disease. We propose that altered expression of NFKB1, as a result of the deletion, modulates hematopoietic pathways and likely impacts cell survival, antibody production, and inflammation. Taken together, we show that disruptions to the tightly regulated immune processes may tip the balance between exacerbated immune responses and allergy, or increased risk of infection and impaired resolution of inflammation.

Frailty and Other Factors Associated With Early Outcomes in Middle-to Older Age Trauma Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To prospectively investigate associations of frailty and other predictor variables with functional recovery and health outcomes in middle-aged and older patients with trauma. DESIGN: Single-center prospective cohort study. SETTING: Emergency department of Wan Fang Hospital in Taiwan. PARTICIPANTS: Trauma patients aged 45 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Injury mechanisms, pre-existing diseases, and fracture locations were recorded at baseline. The primary outcome was functional recovery assessed using the Barthel Index (BI). Secondary outcomes were new care needs, unscheduled return visits, and falls 3 months postinjury. RESULTS: A total of 588 participants were included in the final analysis. For every one-point increase in the CFS, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratio (OR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of failure to retain the preinjury BI was 1.34 (1.16-1.55); associations were consistent across levels of age and injury severities. Significant joint associations of frailty and age with poor functional recovery were observed. CFS was also associated with new care needs (OR for every one-point increase, 1.36, 95% CI, 1.17-1.58), unscheduled return visits (OR 1.26, 95% CI, 1.04-1.51), and falls (OR 1.23, 95% CI, 1.01-1.51). Other variables associated with failure to retain preinjury BI included road traffic accident and presence of hip fracture. CONCLUSION: Frailty was significantly associated with poor functional and health outcomes regardless of injury severity in middle-aged and older patients with trauma. Injury mechanisms and fracture locations were also significant predictors of functional recovery postinjury.

Assessing the importance of primary care diagnoses in the UK Biobank.

The UK Biobank has made general practitioner (GP) data (censoring date 2016-2017) available for approximately 45% of the cohort, whilst hospital inpatient and death registry (referred to as "HES/Death") data are available cohort-wide through 2018-2022 depending on whether the data comes from England, Wales or Scotland. We assessed the importance of case ascertainment via different data sources in UKB for three diseases that are usually first diagnosed in primary care: Parkinson's disease (PD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and all-cause dementia. Including GP data at least doubled the number of incident cases in the subset of the cohort with primary care data (e.g. from 619 to 1390 for dementia). Among the 786 dementia cases that were only captured in the GP data before the GP censoring date, only 421 (54%) were subsequently recorded in HES. Therefore, estimates of the absolute incidence or risk-stratified incidence are misleadingly low when based only on the HES/Death data. For incident cases present in both HES/Death and GP data during the full follow-up period (i.e. until the HES censoring date), the median time difference between an incident diagnosis of dementia being recorded in GP and HES/Death was 2.25 years (i.e. recorded 2.25 years earlier in the GP records). Similar lag periods were also observed for PD (median 2.31 years earlier) and T2D (median 2.82 years earlier). For participants with an incident GP diagnosis, only 65.6% of dementia cases, 69.0% of PD cases, and 58.5% of T2D cases had their diagnosis recorded in HES/Death within 7 years since GP diagnosis. The effect estimates (hazard ratios, HR) of established risk factors for the three health outcomes mostly remain in the same direction and with a similar strength of association when cases are ascertained either using HES only or further adding GP data. The confidence intervals of the HR became narrower when adding GP data, due to the increased statistical power from the additional cases. In conclusion, it is desirable to extend both the coverage and follow-up period of GP data to allow researchers to maximise case ascertainment of chronic health conditions in the UK.

Central Adiposity Increases Risk of Kidney Stone Disease through Effects on Serum Calcium Concentrations.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Kidney stone disease is a common disorder with poorly understood pathophysiology. Observational and genetic studies indicate that adiposity is associated with an increased risk of kidney stone disease. However, the relative contribution of general and central adipose depots and the mechanisms by which effects of adiposity on kidney stone disease are mediated have not been defined. Using conventional and genetic epidemiological techniques, we demonstrate that general and central adiposity are independently associated with kidney stone disease. In addition, one mechanism by which central adiposity increases risk of kidney stone disease is by increasing serum calcium concentration. Therapies targeting adipose depots may affect calcium homeostasis and help to prevent kidney stone disease. BACKGROUND: Kidney stone disease affects approximately 10% of individuals in their lifetime and is frequently recurrent. The disease is linked to obesity, but the mechanisms mediating this association are uncertain. METHODS: Associations of adiposity and incident kidney stone disease were assessed in the UK Biobank over a mean of 11.6 years/person. Genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were undertaken in the UK Biobank, FinnGen, and in meta-analyzed cohorts to identify factors that affect kidney stone disease risk. RESULTS: Observational analyses on UK Biobank data demonstrated that increasing central and general adiposity is independently associated with incident kidney stone formation. Multivariable MR, using meta-analyzed UK Biobank and FinnGen data, established that risk of kidney stone disease increases by approximately 21% per one standard deviation increase in body mass index (BMI, a marker of general adiposity) independent of waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, a marker of central adiposity) and approximately 24% per one standard deviation increase of WHR independent of BMI. Genetic analyses indicate that higher WHR, but not higher BMI, increases risk of kidney stone disease by elevating adjusted serum calcium concentrations (ß=0.12 mmol/L); WHR mediates 12%-15% of its effect on kidney stone risk in this way. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that visceral adipose depots elevate serum calcium concentrations, resulting in increased risk of kidney stone disease. These findings highlight the importance of weight loss in individuals with recurrent kidney stones and suggest that therapies targeting adipose depots may affect calcium homeostasis and contribute to prevention of kidney stone disease.

Association of neuroticism with incident dementia, neuroimaging outcomes, and cognitive function.

INTRODUCTION: Higher neuroticism might be associated with dementia risk. Here we investigated modification by genetic predisposition to dementia, mediation by mental health and vascular conditions, neuroimaging outcomes, and cognitive function. METHODS: Cox proportional-hazards models were used to assess the association between neuroticism score and incident dementia over up to 15 years in 1,74,164 participants. Cross-sectional analyses on dementia-related neuroimaging outcomes and cognitive function were conducted in 39,459 dementia-free participants. RESULTS: Higher neuroticism was associated with an 11% higher risk of incident dementia, especially vascular dementia (15% higher risk), regardless of genetic predisposition to dementia. Mental and vascular conditions mediated the association of neuroticism with all-cause dementia and vascular dementia. Neuroticism was associated with higher cerebrovascular pathology, lower gray matter volume, and worse function across multiple cognitive domains. DISCUSSION: Neuroticism could represent a risk factor for dementia, and vascular and mental health might drive these associations. HIGHLIGHTS: Neuroticism was associated with an increased risk of incident all-cause dementia, particularly vascular dementia. Associations were not modified by genetic predisposition to dementia. Associations were largely mediated by mental and vascular conditions. Neuroticism was associated with increased cerebrovascular pathology and lower gray matter volume. Neuroticism was associated with worse function across multiple cognitive domains.

Associations of inner retinal layers with risk of incident dementia: An individual participant data analysis of four prospective cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: Our main objective was to investigate whether retinal neurodegeneration, estimated from lower thickness of inner retinal layers, was associated with incident all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis using unpublished data from four prospective cohort studies with a total of 69,955 participants (n = 1087 cases of incident all-cause dementia; n = 520 cases incident AD; follow-up time median [interquartile range] 11.3 [8.8-11.5] years). RESULTS: General baseline characteristics of the study population were mean (standard deviation) age, 58.1 (8.8) years; 47% women. After adjustment, lower baseline macular retinal nerve fiber layer thickness was significantly associated with a 10% and 11% higher incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, respectively. Lower baseline macular ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness was not significantly associated with these outcomes. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest that retinal neurodegeneration precedes the onset of clinical dementia. Retinal imaging tools may be informative biomarkers for the study of the early pathophysiology of dementia.

Hypertension, a dementia polygenic risk score, APOE genotype, and incident dementia.

INTRODUCTION: There is inconsistent evidence on whether genetic risk for dementia modifies the association between hypertension and dementia. METHODS: In 198,965 dementia-free participants aged ≥60 years, Cox proportional-hazards models were used to investigate the association between hypertension and incident dementia. A polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 38 non-apolipoprotein E (APOE) single nucleotide polymorphisms and APOE ε4 status were used to determine genetic risk for dementia. RESULTS: Over 15 years follow-up, 6270 participants developed dementia. Hypertension was associated with a 19% increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio = 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.27). The associations remained similar when stratifying by genetic risk, with no evidence for multiplicative interaction by dementia PRS (P = 0.20) or APOE ε4 status (P = 0.16). However, the risk difference between those with and without hypertension was larger among those at higher genetic risk. DISCUSSION: Hypertension was associated with an increased risk of dementia regardless of genetic risk for dementia.

Human Cytomegalovirus and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in United Kingdom Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have yielded conflicting results on the association between human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study examined associations between HCMV and incident CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. METHODS: This study included 8531 women and men of predominantly white ethnic background, aged 40-69 without prevalent CVD from the population-based UK Biobank study, recruited between 2006-2010 with HCMV antibody levels measured. CVD was ascertained via linkage to health administrative records collected until 2020. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine associations between HCMV seropositivity and incident CVD, IHD and stroke. HCMV seropositive antibody levels in tertiles were used to assess dose-response associations. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up period of 10.2 years, HCMV seropositivity was not significantly associated with CVD (Cases = 626, Hazard Ratio [HR] =1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI], .86-1.20), IHD (Cases = 539, HR=1.03, 95% CI, .87-1.24) or stroke (Cases = 144, HR = 0.96, 95% CI, .68-1.36). There was no evidence of dose-response associations with any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: We found no significant association between HCMV seropositivity and risk of CVD, IHD or stroke. Further research within understudied populations, such as those of non-white ethnicity, and CVD subtypes is warranted.

Speech-in-noise hearing impairment is associated with an increased risk of incident dementia in 82,039 UK Biobank participants.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the association between speech-in-noise (SiN) hearing impairment and dementia. METHODS: In 82,039 dementia-free participants aged ≥60 years were selected from the UK Biobank. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to investigate whether SiN hearing impairment is associated with an increased risk of incident dementia. RESULTS: Over 11 years of follow-up (median = 10.1), 1285 participants developed dementia. Insufficient and poor SiN hearing were associated with a 61% (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61, 95% confidence [CI] 1.41-1.84) and 91% (HR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.55-2.36) increased risk of developing dementia, respectively, compared to normal SiN hearing. The association remained similar when restricting to follow-up intervals of ≤3, >3 to  <6, >6 to <9, and >9 years. There was limited evidence for mediation through depressive symptoms and social isolation. DISCUSSION: SiN hearing impairment is independently associated with incident dementia, providing further evidence for hearing impairment as a potential modifiable dementia risk factor.

Association of Lifestyle and Genetic Risk With Incidence of Dementia.

IMPORTANCE: Genetic factors increase risk of dementia, but the extent to which this can be offset by lifestyle factors is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether a healthy lifestyle is associated with lower risk of dementia regardless of genetic risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study that included adults of European ancestry aged at least 60 years without cognitive impairment or dementia at baseline. Participants joined the UK Biobank study from 2006 to 2010 and were followed up until 2016 or 2017. EXPOSURES: A polygenic risk score for dementia with low (lowest quintile), intermediate (quintiles 2 to 4), and high (highest quintile) risk categories and a weighted healthy lifestyle score, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, healthy diet, and moderate alcohol consumption, categorized into favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable lifestyles. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident all-cause dementia, ascertained through hospital inpatient and death records. RESULTS: A total of 196 383 individuals (mean [SD] age, 64.1 [2.9] years; 52.7% were women) were followed up for 1 545 433 person-years (median [interquartile range] follow-up, 8.0 [7.4-8.6] years). Overall, 68.1% of participants followed a favorable lifestyle, 23.6% followed an intermediate lifestyle, and 8.2% followed an unfavorable lifestyle. Twenty percent had high polygenic risk scores, 60% had intermediate risk scores, and 20% had low risk scores. Of the participants with high genetic risk, 1.23% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.35%) developed dementia compared with 0.63% (95% CI, 0.56%-0.71%) of the participants with low genetic risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.64-2.23]). Of the participants with a high genetic risk and unfavorable lifestyle, 1.78% (95% CI, 1.38%-2.28%) developed dementia compared with 0.56% (95% CI, 0.48%-0.66%) of participants with low genetic risk and favorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 2.83 [95% CI, 2.09-3.83]). There was no significant interaction between genetic risk and lifestyle factors (P = .99). Among participants with high genetic risk, 1.13% (95% CI, 1.01%-1.26%) of those with a favorable lifestyle developed dementia compared with 1.78% (95% CI, 1.38%-2.28%) with an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.51-0.90]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among older adults without cognitive impairment or dementia, both an unfavorable lifestyle and high genetic risk were significantly associated with higher dementia risk. A favorable lifestyle was associated with a lower dementia risk among participants with high genetic risk.

Comparison of Sociodemographic and Health-Related Characteristics of UK Biobank Participants With Those of the General Population.

The UK Biobank cohort is a population-based cohort of 500,000 participants recruited in the United Kingdom (UK) between 2006 and 2010. Approximately 9.2 million individuals aged 40-69 years who lived within 25 miles (40 km) of one of 22 assessment centers in England, Wales, and Scotland were invited to enter the cohort, and 5.5% participated in the baseline assessment. The representativeness of the UK Biobank cohort was investigated by comparing demographic characteristics between nonresponders and responders. Sociodemographic, physical, lifestyle, and health-related characteristics of the cohort were compared with nationally representative data sources. UK Biobank participants were more likely to be older, to be female, and to live in less socioeconomically deprived areas than nonparticipants. Compared with the general population, participants were less likely to be obese, to smoke, and to drink alcohol on a daily basis and had fewer self-reported health conditions. At age 70-74 years, rates of all-cause mortality and total cancer incidence were 46.2% and 11.8% lower, respectively, in men and 55.5% and 18.1% lower, respectively, in women than in the general population of the same age. UK Biobank is not representative of the sampling population; there is evidence of a "healthy volunteer" selection bias. Nonetheless, valid assessment of exposure-disease relationships may be widely generalizable and does not require participants to be representative of the population at large.

Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery and Dementia Risk in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: The association between history of coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and dementia risk remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis using data on 3155 elderly adults free from prevalent dementia from the US population-based Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) with adjudicated incident all-cause dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and mixed dementia. RESULTS: In the CHS, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause dementia was 1.93 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.36-2.74] for those with CABG history compared with those with no CABG history after adjustment for potential confounders. Similar HRs were observed for AD (HR=1.71; 95% CI, 0.98-2.98), VaD (HR=1.42; 95% CI, 0.56-3.65), and mixed dementia (HR=2.73; 95% CI, 1.55-4.80). The same pattern of results was observed when these CHS findings were pooled with a prior prospective study, the pooled HRs were 1.96 (95% CI, 1.42-2.69) for all-cause dementia, 1.71 (95% CI, 1.04-2.79) for AD and 2.20 (95% CI, 0.78-6.19) for VaD. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest CABG history is associated with long-term dementia risk. Further investigation is warranted to examine the causal mechanisms which may explain this relationship or whether the association reflects differences in coronary artery disease severity.

The acceptability of repeat Internet-based hybrid diet assessment of previous 24-h dietary intake: administration of the Oxford WebQ in UK Biobank.

Although dietary intake over a single 24-h period may be atypical of an individual's habitual pattern, multiple 24-h dietary assessments can be representative of habitual intake and help in assessing seasonal variation. Web-based questionnaires are convenient for the participant and result in automatic data capture for study investigators. This study reports on the acceptability of repeated web-based administration of the Oxford WebQ--a 24-h recall of frequency from a set food list suitable for self-completion from which energy and nutrient values can be automatically generated. As part of the UK Biobank study, four invitations to complete the Oxford WebQ were sent by email over a 16-month period. Overall, 176 012 (53% of those invited) participants completed the online version of the Oxford WebQ at least once and 66% completed it more than once, although only 16% completed it on all four occasions. The response rate for any one round of invitations varied between 34 and 26%. On most occasions, the Oxford WebQ was completed on the same day that they received the invitation, although this was less likely if sent on a weekend. Participants who completed the Oxford WebQ tended to be white, female, slightly older, less deprived and more educated, which is typical of health-conscious volunteer-based studies. These findings provide preliminary evidence to suggest that repeated 24-h dietary assessment via the Internet is acceptable to the public and a feasible strategy for large population-based studies.

Association of Metabolic Syndrome With Neuroimaging and Cognitive Outcomes in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been linked to dementia. In this study, we examined the association of MetS with neuroimaging and cognition in dementia-free adults, offering insight into the impact of MetS on brain health prior to dementia onset. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 37,395 dementia-free adults from the UK Biobank database. MetS was defined as having at least three of the following components: larger waist circumference; elevated levels of triglycerides, blood pressure, HbA1c; or reduced HDL cholesterol levels. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression was used to assess associations of MetS with structural neuroimaging and cognitive domains. RESULTS: MetS was associated with lower total brain (standardized ß: -0.06; 95% CI -0.08, -0.04), gray matter (ß: -0.10; 95% CI -0.12, -0.08) and hippocampal (for left side, ß: -0.03, 95% CI -0.05, -0.01; for right side, ß: -0.04, 95% CI -0.07, -0.02) volumes, and greater white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume (ß: 0.08; 95% CI 0.06, 0.11). Study participants with MetS performed poorer on cognitive tests of working memory (ß: -0.10; 95% CI -0.13, -0.07), verbal declarative memory (ß: -0.08; 95% CI -0.11, -0.05), processing speed (ß: -0.06; 95% CI -0.09, -0.04), verbal and numerical reasoning (ß: -0.07; 95% CI -0.09, -0.04), nonverbal reasoning (ß: -0.03; 95% CI -0.05, -0.01), and on tests of executive function, where higher scores indicated poorer performance (ß: 0.05; 95% CI 0.03, 0.08). More MetS components were also associated with less brain volume, greater WMH, and poorer cognition across all domains. CONCLUSIONS: MetS was associated poorer brain health in dementia-free adults, characterized by less brain volume, greater vascular pathology, and poorer cognition. Further research is necessary to understand whether reversal or improvement of MetS can improve brain health.

Assessing the Value of Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score with Nongenetic Factors for Predicting Breast Cancer Diagnosis in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have demonstrated that incorporating a polygenic risk score (PRS) to existing risk prediction models for breast cancer improves model fit, but to determine its clinical utility the impact on risk categorization needs to be established. We add a PRS to two well-established models and quantify the difference in classification using the net reclassification improvement (NRI). METHODS: We analyzed data from 126,490 post-menopausal women of "White British" ancestry, aged 40 to 69 years at baseline from the UK Biobank prospective cohort. The breast cancer outcome was derived from linked registry data and hospital records. We combined a PRS for breast cancer with 10-year risk scores from the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models, and compared these to the risk scores from the models using phenotypic variables alone. We report metrics of discrimination and classification, and consider the importance of the risk threshold selected. RESULTS: The Harrell's C statistic of the 10-year risk from the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models was 0.57 and 0.54, respectively, increasing to 0.67 when the PRS was included. Inclusion of the PRS gave a positive NRI for cases in both models [0.080 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.053-0.104) and 0.051 (95% CI, 0.030-0.073), respectively], with negligible impact on controls. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of a PRS for breast cancer to the well-established Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models provides a substantial improvement in the prediction accuracy and risk stratification. IMPACT: These findings could have important implications for the ongoing discussion about the value of PRS in risk prediction models and screening.

Incorporating polygenic risk into the Leicester Risk Assessment score for 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: We evaluated whether incorporating information on ethnic background and polygenic risk enhanced the Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA) score for predicting 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The sample included 202,529 UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years. We computed the LRA score, and developed two new risk scores using training data (80% sample): LRArev, which incorporated additional information on ethnic background, and LRAprs, which incorporated polygenic risk for type 2 diabetes. We assessed discriminative and reclassification performance in a test set (20% sample). Type 2 diabetes was ascertained using primary care, hospital inpatient and death registry records. RESULTS: Over 10 years, 7,476 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The Harrell's C indexes were 0.796 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.785, 0.806), 0.802 (95% CI 0.792, 0.813), and 0.829 (95% CI 0.820, 0.839) for the LRA, LRArev and LRAprs scores, respectively. The LRAprs score significantly improved the overall reclassification compared to the LRA (net reclassification index [NRI] = 0.033, 95% CI 0.015, 0.049) and LRArev (NRI = 0.040, 95% CI 0.024, 0.055) scores. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risk moderately improved the performance of the existing LRA score for 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes.

Brain Care Score and Neuroimaging Markers of Brain Health in Asymptomatic Middle-Age Persons.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate associations between health-related behaviors as measured using the Brain Care Score (BCS) and neuroimaging markers of white matter injury. METHODS: This prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank assessed the BCS, a novel tool designed to empower patients to address 12 dementia and stroke risk factors. The BCS ranges from 0 to 21, with higher scores suggesting better brain care. Outcomes included white matter hyperintensities (WMH) volume, fractional anisotropy (FA), and mean diffusivity (MD) obtained during 2 imaging assessments, as well as their progression between assessments, using multivariable linear regression adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: We included 34,509 participants (average age 55 years, 53% female) with no stroke or dementia history. At first and repeat imaging assessments, every 5-point increase in baseline BCS was linked to significantly lower WMH volumes (25% 95% CI [23%-27%] first, 33% [27%-39%] repeat) and higher FA (18% [16%-20%] first, 22% [15%-28%] repeat), with a decrease in MD (9% [7%-11%] first, 10% [4%-16%] repeat). In addition, a higher baseline BCS was associated with a 10% [3%-17%] reduction in WMH progression and FA decline over time. DISCUSSION: This study extends the impact of the BCS to neuroimaging markers of clinically silent cerebrovascular disease. Our results suggest that improving one's BCS could be a valuable intervention to prevent early brain health decline.

Combining machine learning with Cox models to identify predictors for incident post-menopausal breast cancer in the UK Biobank.

We aimed to identify potential novel predictors for breast cancer among post-menopausal women, with pre-specified interest in the role of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for risk prediction. We utilised an analysis pipeline where machine learning was used for feature selection, prior to risk prediction by classical statistical models. An "extreme gradient boosting" (XGBoost) machine with Shapley feature-importance measures were used for feature selection among [Formula: see text] 1.7 k features in 104,313 post-menopausal women from the UK Biobank. We constructed and compared the "augmented" Cox model (incorporating the two PRS, known and novel predictors) with a "baseline" Cox model (incorporating the two PRS and known predictors) for risk prediction. Both of the two PRS were significant in the augmented Cox model ([Formula: see text]). XGBoost identified 10 novel features, among which five showed significant associations with post-menopausal breast cancer: plasma urea (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98, [Formula: see text]), plasma phosphate (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.88, [Formula: see text]), basal metabolic rate (HR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.11-1.24, [Formula: see text]), red blood cell count (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.08-1.35, [Formula: see text]), and creatinine in urine (HR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09, [Formula: see text]). Risk discrimination was maintained in the augmented Cox model, yielding C-index 0.673 vs 0.667 (baseline Cox model) with the training data and 0.665 vs 0.664 with the test data. We identified blood/urine biomarkers as potential novel predictors for post-menopausal breast cancer. Our findings provide new insights to breast cancer risk. Future research should validate novel predictors, investigate using multiple PRS and more precise anthropometry measures for better breast cancer risk prediction.