Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app .

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.

Clinical and molecular features of acquired resistance to immunotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer.

Although immunotherapy with PD-(L)1 blockade is routine for lung cancer, little is known about acquired resistance. Among 1,201 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with PD-(L)1 blockade, acquired resistance is common, occurring in >60% of initial responders. Acquired resistance shows differential expression of inflammation and interferon (IFN) signaling. Relapsed tumors can be separated by upregulated or stable expression of IFNγ response genes. Upregulation of IFNγ response genes is associated with putative routes of resistance characterized by signatures of persistent IFN signaling, immune dysfunction, and mutations in antigen presentation genes which can be recapitulated in multiple murine models of acquired resistance to PD-(L)1 blockade after in vitro IFNγ treatment. Acquired resistance to PD-(L)1 blockade in NSCLC is associated with an ongoing, but altered IFN response. The persistently inflamed, rather than excluded or deserted, tumor microenvironment of acquired resistance may inform therapeutic strategies to effectively reprogram and reverse acquired resistance.