Leveraging information from secondary endpoints to enhance dynamic borrowing across subpopulations.

Randomized trials seek efficient treatment effect estimation within target populations, yet scientific interest often also centers on subpopulations. Although there are typically too few subjects within each subpopulation to efficiently estimate these subpopulation treatment effects, one can gain precision by borrowing strength across subpopulations, as is the case in a basket trial. While dynamic borrowing has been proposed as an efficient approach to estimating subpopulation treatment effects on primary endpoints, additional efficiency could be gained by leveraging the information found in secondary endpoints. We propose a multisource exchangeability model (MEM) that incorporates secondary endpoints to more efficiently assess subpopulation exchangeability. Across simulation studies, our proposed model almost uniformly reduces the mean squared error when compared to the standard MEM that only considers data from the primary endpoint by gaining efficiency when subpopulations respond similarly to the treatment and reducing the magnitude of bias when the subpopulations are heterogeneous. We illustrate our model's feasibility using data from a recently completed trial of very low nicotine content cigarettes to estimate the effect on abstinence from smoking within three priority subpopulations. Our proposed model led to increases in the effective sample size two to four times greater than under the standard MEM.

Inhibition of lung adenocarcinoma by combinations of sulfasalazine (SAS) and disulfiram-copper (DSF-Cu) in cell line models and mice.

Sulfasalazine (SAS) is a repurposed antitumor drug which inhibits the proliferation and survival of cancer cells by inhibiting the xCT cellular antioxidant system. Recent clinical studies have shown that, due to poor bioavailability, the antitumor effects of SAS monotherapy are minimal. Therefore, we hypothesized that DSF, another repurposed drug that has demonstrated anticancer effects, or its complex with copper (DSF-copper, DSF-Cu) could potentiate the antilung cancer effects of SAS. Exposure of non-small cell lung cancer cells to therapeutically achievable concentrations of SAS-induced low-to-moderate cytotoxic effects (20-40% reduction in cell viability) and, unexpectedly, induced the antioxidant protein NRF2 and its downstream effectors xCT and ALDH1A1. However, combinations of SAS and DSF-Cu, but not SAS and DSF, induced a significantly higher cytotoxic effect (64-88% reduction in cell viability), apoptosis and generation of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species as compared with SAS or DSF-Cu alone. Moreover, DSF-Cu abrogated SAS-induced NRF2, xCT and ALDH1A1 expression. In a mouse model of lung tumor, SAS + DSF-Cu showed a higher efficacy than the individual drugs in reducing the number and size of tumors as well as the incidence and multiplicity of lung adenocarcinoma. Taken together, our findings indicate that the observed antilung cancer effects of SAS plus DSF-Cu are mediated, at least in part, via impairment of reactive oxygen species defense and -enhancement of oxidative stress and provide evidence for the preventive/therapeutic potential of this combinatorial approach against lung cancer.

Increased Levels of the Acrolein Metabolite 3-Hydroxypropyl Mercapturic Acid in the Urine of e-Cigarette Users.

Carcinogen and toxicant uptake by e-cigarette users have not been fully evaluated. In the study reported here, we recruited 30 e-cigarette users, 63 nonsmokers, and 33 cigarette smokers who gave monthly urine samples over a period of 4-6 months. Their product use status was confirmed by measurements of exhaled CO, urinary total nicotine equivalents, cyanoethyl mercapturic acid (CEMA), and total 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol. Urinary biomarkers of exposure to the carcinogens acrolein (3-hydroxypropyl mercapturic acid, 3-HPMA), benzene (S-phenyl mercapturic acid, SPMA), acrylonitrile (CEMA), and a combination of crotonaldehyde, methyl vinyl ketone, and methacrolein (3-hydroxy-1-methylpropyl mercapturic acid, HMPMA) were quantified at each visit. Data from subject visits with CEMA > 27 pmol/mL were excluded from the statistical analysis of the results because of possible unreported exposures to volatile combustion products such as secondhand cigarette smoke or marijuana smoke exposure; this left 22 e-cigarette users with 4 or more monthly visits and all 63 nonsmokers. Geometric mean levels of 3-HPMA (1249 versus 679.3 pmol/mL urine) were significantly higher (P = 0.003) in e-cigarette users than in nonsmokers, whereas levels of SPMA, CEMA, and HMPMA did not differ between these two groups. All analytes were significantly higher in cigarette smokers than in either e-cigarette users or nonsmokers. The results of this unique multimonth longitudinal study demonstrate consistent significantly higher uptake of the carcinogen acrolein in e-cigarette users versus nonsmokers, presenting a warning signal regarding e-cigarette use.

Switching to cigarette brand variants with different filter ventilation levels: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: Regulation of filter ventilation (FV) has been proposed to reduce misperceptions that ventilation reduces the health risks of smoking. We describe smoking behaviour and exposure after switching to a cigarette brand variant (CBV) with a different FV level. METHODS: Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco Use and Health Study was merged with FV levels of participants' CBV and restricted to adults with a usual CBV, smoked daily and included in wave 4 (2016-2017; n=371). Generalised estimation equations method modelled changes in FV and cigarettes per day (CPD), quit interest, total nicotine equivalents (TNE) and total NNAL (biomarker of a tobacco-specific carcinogen). FV change was defined as a change in CBV resulting in a ≥20% increase or decrease in FV. Secondary analyses used FV change based on an increase from <5% to >10% or a decrease from >10% to <5%. RESULTS: A non-significant pattern indicating an increase of 0.97 and 0.49 CPD was observed among those who switched to a CBV and increased FV by ≥20% and from <5% to >10%, respectively. A non-significant pattern indicating a decrease of 1.31 and 1.97 CPD was observed among those who decreased FV by ≥20% and from >10% to <5%, respectively. Changes in quit interest and biomarkers were also non-significant with one exception: greater reduction in TNE among those who decreased from >10% to <5% FV versus no change (-8.51 vs -0.25 nmol/mg creatinine; p=0.0447). CONCLUSIONS: Switching to CBV with lower FV does not appear to increase exposure and may even reduce exposure for some. Additional investigations are recommended to confirm these descriptive findings.

Risk perceptions and continued smoking as a function of cigarette filter ventilation level among US youth and young adults who smoke.

BACKGROUND: While evidence demonstrates that the industry's marketing of cigarettes with higher filter ventilation (FV) misleads adults about their health risks, there is no research on the relationships between FV, risk perceptions and smoking trajectories among youth (ages 12-17) and young adults (ages 18-24). METHODS: Data on FV levels of major US cigarette brands/sub-brands were merged with the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study to examine whether FV level in cigarettes used by wave 1 youth/young adults (n=1970) predicted continued smoking at waves 2-4, and whether those relationships were mediated by perceived risk of their cigarette brand. FV was modelled based on tertiles (0.2%-11.8%, low; 11.9%-23.2%, moderate; 23.3%-61.1%, high) to predict daily smoking, past 30-day smoking and change in number of days smoking at successive waves. RESULTS: The odds of perceiving one's brand as less harmful than other cigarette brands was 2.21 times higher in the high versus low FV group (p=0.0146). Relationships between FV and smoking outcomes at successive waves were non-significant (all p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Youth and young adults who use higher FV cigarettes perceived their brand as less harmful compared with other brands. However, level of FV was not associated with continued smoking.

Nonparametric estimation in an illness-death model with component-wise censoring.

In disease settings where study participants are at risk for death and a serious nonfatal event, composite endpoints defined as the time until the earliest of death or the nonfatal event are often used as the primary endpoint in clinical trials. In practice, if the nonfatal event can only be detected at clinic visits and the death time is known exactly, the resulting composite endpoint exhibits "component-wise censoring." The standard method used to estimate event-free survival in this setting fails to account for component-wise censoring. We apply a kernel smoothing method previously proposed for a marker process in a novel way to produce a nonparametric estimator for event-free survival that accounts for component-wise censoring. The key insight that allows us to apply this kernel method is thinking of nonfatal event status as an intermittently observed binary time-dependent variable rather than thinking of time to the nonfatal event as interval-censored. We also propose estimators for the probability in state and restricted mean time in state for reversible or irreversible illness-death models, under component-wise censoring, and derive their large-sample properties. We perform a simulation study to compare our method to existing multistate survival methods and apply the methods on data from a large randomized trial studying a multifactor intervention for reducing morbidity and mortality among men at above average risk of coronary heart disease.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data meta-analysis of demand curves.

Individual participant data meta-analysis is a frequently used method to combine and contrast data from multiple independent studies. Bayesian hierarchical models are increasingly used to appropriately take into account potential heterogeneity between studies. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data generated from the Cigarette Purchase Task (CPT). Data from the CPT details how demand for cigarettes varies as a function of price, which is usually described as an exponential demand curve. As opposed to the conventional random-effects meta-analysis methods, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to estimate both the study-specific and population-level parameters simultaneously without relying on the normality assumptions. We applied the proposed model to a meta-analysis with baseline CPT data from six studies and compared the results from the proposed model and a two-step conventional random-effects meta-analysis approach. We conducted extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach and discussed the benefits of using the Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data meta-analysis of demand curves.

Smoking abstinence and cessation-related outcomes one month after an immediate versus gradual reduction in nicotine content of cigarettes.

The United States Food and Drug Administration has the authority to reduce the nicotine content in cigarettes to minimal or non-addictive levels and could do so immediately or gradually over time. A large clinical trial compared the two approaches. This secondary analysis assesses abstinence and cessation-related outcomes one month after the trial concluded, when participants no longer had access to very low nicotine content (VLNC) research cigarettes. Smokers not interested in quitting (N = 1250) were recruited for the parent trial from 2014 to 2016 across 10 sites throughout the US and randomized to a 20-week study period during which they immediately switched to VLNC cigarettes, gradually transitioned to VLNC cigarettes with five monthly dose reductions, or smoked normal nicotine research cigarettes (control). At the one-month follow-up, both immediate and gradual reduction resulted in greater mean cigarette-free days (4.7 and 4.6 respectively) than the control group (3.2, both p < .05). Immediate reduction resulted in fewer mean cigarettes per day (CPD = 10.3) and lower Fagerström Test for Cigarette Dependence (FTCD = 3.7) than the gradual (CPD = 11.7, p = .001; FTCD = 3.8, p = .039) and control (CPD = 13.5, p < .001; FTCD = 4.0, p < .001) groups. Compared to controls, gradual reduction resulted in reduced CPD (p = .012) but not FTCD (p = .13). Differences in CO-verified 7-day point-prevalence abstinence were not significant. Findings demonstrate that switching to VLNC cigarettes resulted in reduced smoking and nicotine dependence severity that was sustained for at least a month after the VLNC trial period in smokers who were not interested in cessation. The greatest harm reduction endpoints were observed in those who immediately transitioned to VLNC cigarettes.

BivRec: an R package for the nonparametric and semiparametric analysis of bivariate alternating recurrent events.

BACKGROUND: Bivariate alternating recurrent event data can arise in longitudinal studies where patients with chronic diseases go through two states that occur repeatedly, e.g., care periods and break periods. However, there was no statistical software that provided tools for the analysis of such data. To meet this software need, we developed BivRec, a package for R that contains a set of tools for exploratory, nonparametric and semiparametric regression analysis of bivariate alternating recurrent events. RESULTS: The BivRec package provides functions for nonparametric estimations for the joint distribution of bivariate gap times (bivrecNP) and semiparametric regression methods for evaluating covariate effects on the two types of gap times under the accelerated failure time model framework (bivrecReg). The package also provides exploratory data analysis tools such as a visualization of the gap times by groups. We utilize a subset of the South Verona Psychiatric Case Register (PCR) data to illustrate the use of the BivRec package for the reviewed methods. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate BivRec's capability for data visualization, nonparametric and regression based analysis, as well as data simulation. The package has default methods with satisfactory performance despite the complexity of calculations and fills a gap in software for statistical analysis of bivariate alternating recurrent events. BivRec is accessible under the GPL-3 General Public License through CRAN, facilitating its installation.

Cigarette Smokers Versus Cannabis Smokers Versus Co-users of Cigarettes and Cannabis: A Pilot Study Examining Exposure to Toxicants.

INTRODUCTION: Studies suggest tobacco and cannabis co-users may experience greater toxicant exposure than exclusive cigarette (ET) smokers. No study has systematically tested differences in toxicant exposure among co-users, exclusive cannabis (ECa) smokers, and ET smokers. AIMS AND METHODS: Adult daily cigarette smokers and/or weekly cannabis smokers completed two laboratory visits. Co-users (n = 19) tested positive for urinary 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH), self-reported cannabis use ≥1 per week, and smoked ≥5 cigarettes per day (CPD). ET smokers (n = 18) denied past month cannabis use, tested negative for urinary THCCOOH and smoked ≥5 CPD. ECa smokers (n = 16) tested positive for urinary THCCOOH, self-reported cannabis use ≥1 per week, and denied past month tobacco use (NicAlert <3). Self-reported tobacco and cannabis use were collected at both visits. First morning urinary tobacco and combustion-related biomarkers of exposure were compared following a cannabis or tobacco smoking session (visit 2). RESULTS: Co-users and ET smokers had higher levels of exhaled carbon monoxide, total nicotine equivalents, metabolites of 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNAL), and all four measured mercapturic acids (measures of volatile organic compounds) than ECa smokers (ps < .005). ET smokers (geometric mean = 7220.2 pmol/mg) had higher levels of 2-hydroxypropylmercapturic acid than co-users (geometric mean = 5348.7 adjusted p = .009). Phenanthrene tetraol did not differ by group (p > .05). CONCLUSIONS: Co-users and ET smokers demonstrated comparable levels of biomarkers of exposure to harmful constituents despite smoking similar amounts of tobacco. ECa smokers demonstrated lower levels of toxicant exposure for most biomarkers. IMPLICATIONS: Although ECa smokers are exposed to significantly lower levels of harmful constituents compared with co-users and exclusive cigarette smokers, this group is still exposed to higher levels of toxicants than observed in studies of nonsmokers. Additionally, these three groups were exposed to similar levels of phenanthrene tetraol. It is important to account for cannabis use in studies examining biomarkers of exposure among cigarette smokers. Additionally, further research is needed examining exposure to harmful chemicals among various types of cannabis and tobacco users.

The implementation of a smoking cessation and alcohol abstinence intervention for people experiencing homelessness.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, eighty percent of the adult homeless population smokes cigarettes compared to 15 percent of the general population. In 2017 Power to Quit 2 (PTQ2), a randomized clinical trial, was implemented in two urban homeless shelters in the Upper Midwest to address concurrent smoking cessation and alcohol treatment among people experiencing homelessness. A subset of this study population were interviewed to assess their experiences of study intervention. The objective of this study was to use participants' experiences with the intervention to inform future implementation efforts of combined smoking cessation and alcohol abstinence interventions, guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). METHODS: Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 40 PTQ2 participants between 2016-2017 and analyzed in 2019. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a socially constructivist approach to grounded theory. RESULTS: Participants described the PTQ2 intervention in positive terms. Participants valued the opportunity to obtain both counseling and nicotine-replacement therapy products (intervention characteristics) and described forming a bond with the PTQ2 staff and reliance on them for emotional support and encouragement (characteristics of individuals). However, the culture of alcohol use and cigarette smoking around the shelter environment presented a serious challenge (outer setting). The study setting and the multiple competing needs of participants were reported as the most challenging barriers to implementation (implementation process). CONCLUSION: There are unique challenges in addressing smoking cessation with people experiencing homelessness. For those in shelters there can be the difficulty of pro-smoking norms in and around the shelter itself. Considering pairing cessation with policy level interventions targeting smoke-free spaces, or pairing cessation with housing support efforts may be worthwhile.. Participants described a discord in their personal goals of reduction compared with the study goals of complete abstinence, which may pose a challenge to the ways in which success is defined for people experiencing homelessness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01932996 , registered 08/30/2013.

Cigarette smoking enhances the metabolic activation of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon phenanthrene in humans.

Although it is well established that human cytochrome P450 1 family enzymes are induced by cigarette smoking through activation of the Ah receptor, it is not known whether this leads to increased metabolic activation or detoxification of carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), which are present in cigarette smoke and the general environment. We gave oral doses of deuterated phenanthrene ([D10]Phe), a non-carcinogenic surrogate of carcinogenic PAH such as benzo[a]pyrene, to smokers (N = 170, 1 or 10 µg doses) and non-smokers (N = 57, 1 µg dose). Bioactivation products (dihydrodiol and tetraol) and detoxification products (phenols) of [D10]Phe were determined in 6-h urine to obtain a comprehensive metabolic profile. Cigarette smoking increased the bioactivation of [D10]Phe and decreased its detoxification resulting in significantly different metabolic patterns between smokers and non-smokers (P < 0.01), consistent with increased cancer risk in smokers. The Phe bioactivation ratios ([D10]PheT/total [D9]OHPhe) were significantly higher (2.3 (P < 0.01) to 4.8 (P < 0.001) fold) in smokers than non-smokers. With solid human in vivo evidence, our results for the first time demonstrate that cigarette smoking enhances the metabolic activation of Phe, structurally representative of carcinogenic PAH, in humans, strongly supporting their causal role in cancers caused by smoking. The results suggest potential new methods for identifying smokers who could be at particularly high risk for cancer.

A mixed effects model for analyzing area under the curve of longitudinally measured biomarkers with missing data.

A simple approach for analyzing longitudinally measured biomarkers is to calculate summary measures such as the area under the curve (AUC) for each individual and then compare the mean AUC between treatment groups using methods such as t test. This two-step approach is difficult to implement when there are missing data since the AUC cannot be directly calculated for individuals with missing measurements. Simple methods for dealing with missing data include the complete case analysis and imputation. A recent study showed that the estimated mean AUC difference between treatment groups based on the linear mixed model (LMM), rather than on individually calculated AUCs by simple imputation, has negligible bias under random missing assumptions and only small bias when missing is not at random. However, this model assumes the outcome to be normally distributed, which is often violated in biomarker data. In this paper, we propose to use a LMM on log-transformed biomarkers, based on which statistical inference for the ratio, rather than difference, of AUC between treatment groups is provided. The proposed method can not only handle the potential baseline imbalance in a randomized trail but also circumvent the estimation of the nuisance variance parameters in the log-normal model. The proposed model is applied to a recently completed large randomized trial studying the effect of nicotine reduction on biomarker exposure of smokers.

Urinary Cyanoethyl Mercapturic Acid, a Biomarker of the Smoke Toxicant Acrylonitrile, Clearly Distinguishes Smokers From Nonsmokers.

INTRODUCTION: Cyanoethyl mercapturic acid (CEMA) is a urinary metabolite of acrylonitrile, a toxicant found in substantial quantities in cigarette smoke, but not in non-combusted products such as e-cigarettes or smokeless tobacco and rarely in the diet or in the general human environment. Thus, we hypothesized that CEMA is an excellent biomarker of combusted tobacco product use. AIMS AND METHODS: We tested this hypothesis by analyzing CEMA in the urine of 1259 cigarette smokers (urinary cotinine ≥25 ng/mL) and 1191 nonsmokers. The analyses of CEMA and cotinine were performed by validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry methods. Logistic regression was fit for log-transformed CEMA to construct the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: We found that a CEMA cutpoint of 27 pmol/mL urine differentiated cigarette smokers from nonsmokers with sensitivity and specificity greater than 99%. The use of different cotinine cutpoints to define smokers (10-30 ng/mL) had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS: CEMA is a highly reliable urinary biomarker to identify users of combusted tobacco products such as cigarettes as opposed to users of non-combusted products, medicinal nicotine, or nonusers of tobacco products. IMPLICATIONS: CEMA can be used to distinguish users of combusted tobacco products from non-combusted products such as e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and medicinal nicotine. Levels of CEMA in the urine of people who use these non-combusted products are extremely low, in contrast to cotinine.

Cigarette Smokers Versus Cousers of Cannabis and Cigarettes: Exposure to Toxicants.

INTRODUCTION: Cannabis and tobacco couse is common and could expose users to higher levels of toxicants. No studies have examined biomarkers of toxicant exposure in cousers of cannabis and cigarettes, compared with cigarette smokers (CS). AIMS AND METHODS: Adult daily CS were recruited from 10 US sites for a study of reduced nicotine cigarettes. In this analysis of baseline data, participants were categorized as either cousers of cannabis and tobacco (cousers; N = 167; urine positive for 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ 9-tetrahydrocannnabinol and self-reported cannabis use ≥1×/week), or CS (N = 911; negative urine and no self-reported cannabis use). Participants who did not meet either definition (N = 172) were excluded. Self-reported tobacco and cannabis use and tobacco and/or combustion-related biomarkers of exposure were compared between groups. RESULTS: Compared to CS, cousers were younger (couser Mage = 38.96, SD = 13.01; CS Mage = 47.22, SD = 12.72; p < .001) and more likely to be male (cousers = 67.7%, CS = 51.9%, p < .001). There were no group differences in self-reported cigarettes/day, total nicotine equivalents, or breath carbon monoxide, but cousers had greater use of non-cigarette tobacco products. Compared to CS, cousers had higher concentrations of 3-hydroxypropylmercapturic acid, 2-cyanoethylmercapturic acid, S-phenylmercapturic acid, 3-hydroxy-1-methylpropylmercapturic acid (ps < .05), and phenanthrene tetraol (p < .001). No biomarkers were affected by number of cannabis use days/week or days since last cannabis use during baseline (ps > .05). CONCLUSIONS: Cousers had higher concentrations of biomarkers of exposure than CS, but similar number of cigarettes per day and nicotine exposure. Additional studies are needed to determine whether cannabis and/or alternative tobacco products are driving the increased toxicant exposure. IMPLICATIONS: Cousers of cannabis and tobacco appear to be exposed to greater levels of harmful chemicals (ie, volatile organic compounds and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), but similar levels of nicotine as CS. It is unclear if the higher levels of toxicant exposure in cousers are due to cannabis use or the increased use of alternative tobacco products compared with CS. It is important for studies examining biomarkers of exposure among CS to account for cannabis use as it may have a significant impact on outcomes. Additionally, further research is needed examining exposure to harmful chemicals among cannabis users.

Very Low Nicotine Content Cigarettes Disrupt the Feedback Loop of Affective States and Smoking Behavior.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking to reduce negative affect has been identified as a key motivational feature of tobacco use. Our recent work suggests that smoking very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes reduces the relationship between negative affect and smoking behavior over a 6-week period. Here, we sought to extend our findings by evaluating whether a gradual or immediate approach to switching to VLNC cigarettes led to a differential reduction in the relationship between affect and smoking behavior over a longer (20-week) period. AIMS AND METHODS: Participants (n = 1250) were adult smokers from 10 US sites randomized to one of three groups: gradual nicotine reduction (15.5, 11.7, 5.2, 2.4, and 0.4 mg of nicotine per gram of tobacco [mg/g]), immediate nicotine reduction (0.4 mg/g), or standard nicotine content cigarettes (15.5 mg/g; control), for 20 weeks. We examined whether the relationship between affect-both negative and positive-and cigarettes per day differed as a function of reduction group. RESULTS: We found that both negative and positive affect were associated with cigarette consumption in the control group, but not in the gradual or immediate reduction groups across the 20 weeks of exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Our results extend previous findings that switching to VLNC cigarettes disrupts the relationship between affect and cigarette consumption by showing that either gradually or immediately reducing cigarette nicotine content achieves this disruption. These findings provide further evidence that switching to VLNC cigarettes reduces nicotine-related reinforcement of cigarette smoking. IMPLICATIONS: These findings support the notion that switching to very low nicotine content cigarettes reduces the association between affect and smoking behavior, and that either a gradual or immediate nicotine reduction approach achieves this reduction. This provides further evidence that switching to very low nicotine content cigarettes weakens reinforcement mechanisms associated with nicotine dependence.

Monocyte Subpopulation Recovery as Predictors of Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Outcomes.

Monocyte recovery after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has been correlated with overall survival (OS). However, monocytes are heterogeneous and consist of classic (CD14++CD16-), intermediate (CD14+CD16+), and nonclassic (CD14+CD16++) subpopulations, with unique functional properties. We hypothesized that monocyte subpopulation reconstitution would vary based on allogeneic stem cell source and would be associated with outcomes. We studied monocyte subpopulation recovery at days 28, 60, 100, 180, and 365 post-HCT among 202 patients with hematologic malignancy. Significant differences in absolute monocyte count (AMC) and monocyte subpopulation counts at days 60 and 100 were identified based on stem cell source (all P < .01), with more robust recovery in umbilical cord blood (UCB) recipients. Using 2-fold cross-validation, optimal cutpoints were calculated for day 28 AMC and monocyte subpopulations based on OS. These were used to calculate hazard ratios for OS, disease-free survival (DFS), relapse, transplant-related mortality (TRM), and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease. OS and DFS were superior when AMC and classic monocyte recovery were above optimal cutpoints (all P < .03). Relapse was reduced for those with AMC (P < .01) and classic (P = .05) monocyte counts above optimal cutpoints. TRM was also reduced when classic (P = .02) monocyte count exceeded optimal cutpoints. Intermediate and nonclassic monocyte recovery were not associated with outcomes. In summary, hematopoietic cell source is associated with monocyte subpopulation recovery, with the early robust recovery in UCB recipients. Recovery of AMC and classic monocytes were prognostic for survival, relapse, and TRM. These indicators may identify patients at increased risk for post-HCT failure and guide therapeutic interventions.

The Importance of Estimating Causal Effects for Evaluating a Nicotine Standard for Cigarettes.

Recent evidence from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes indicates that smokers randomized to VLNC cigarettes had significantly lower cigarette use, dependence, and biomarkers of exposure than smokers randomized to normal nicotine content control cigarettes. In these trials, a substantial number of participants did not adhere to their randomized treatment assignment, i.e., they used commercial cigarettes not provided by the trial in place of or in addition to the VLNC cigarettes provided by the trial. As with most RCTs, the analysis of these trials followed the intention-to-treat principle, where participants are analyzed according to their randomized treatment assignment regardless of adherence. Alternately, the analysis of an RCT could focus on the estimation and testing of the causal effect of the intervention, which is the treatment effect if all subjects were to adhere to their randomized treatment assignment. In this commentary, we compare these two approaches, highlighting the important role of causal estimation and inference for evaluating the regulatory effect of a nicotine standard for cigarettes. Additionally, we review the results of the secondary analyses of randomized trials of VLNC cigarettes using causal inference methodology to account for non-adherence to the assigned treatment and discuss the implications for a nicotine standard for cigarettes.

Effects of Very Low Nicotine Content Cigarettes on Smoking Behavior and Biomarkers of Exposure in Menthol and Non-menthol Smokers.

INTRODUCTION: Because 30% of cigarettes sold in the United States are characterized as menthol cigarettes, it is important to understand how menthol preference may affect the impact of a nicotine reduction policy. METHODS: In a recent trial, non-treatment-seeking smokers were randomly assigned to receive very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNC; 0.4 mg nicotine/g tobacco) or normal nicotine cigarettes (NNC; 15.5 mg/g) for 20 weeks. On the basis of preference, participants received menthol or non-menthol cigarettes. We conducted multivariable regression analyses to examine whether menthol preference moderated the effects of nicotine content on cigarettes per day (CPD), breath carbon monoxide (CO), urinary total nicotine equivalents (TNE), urinary 2-cyanoethylmercapturic acid (CEMA), and abstinence. RESULTS: At baseline, menthol smokers (n = 346) reported smoking fewer CPD (14.9 vs. 19.2) and had lower TNE (52.8 vs. 71.6 nmol/mg) and CO (17.7 vs. 20.5 ppm) levels than non-menthol smokers (n = 406; ps < .05). At week 20, significant interactions indicated that menthol smokers had smaller treatment effects than non-menthol smokers for CPD (-6.4 vs. -9.3), TNE (ratio of geometric means, 0.22 vs. 0.10) and CEMA (ratio, 0.56 vs. 0.37; ps < .05), and trended toward a smaller treatment effect for CO (-4.5 vs. -7.3 ppm; p = .06). Odds ratios for abstinence at week 20 were 1.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.8 to 4.4) for menthol and 9.11 (95% CI = 3.3 to 25.2) for non-menthol VLNC smokers (p = .02) relative to the NNC condition. CONCLUSIONS: Although menthol smokers experienced reductions in smoking, toxicant exposure, and increases in quitting when using VLNC cigarettes, the magnitude of change was smaller than that observed for non-menthol smokers. IMPLICATIONS: Results of this analysis suggest that smokers of menthol cigarettes may respond to a nicotine reduction policy with smaller reductions in smoking rates and toxicant exposure than would smokers of non-menthol cigarettes.

The Impact of Gradual and Immediate Nicotine Reduction on Subjective Cigarette Ratings.

BACKGROUND: A recent clinical trial showed that an immediate transition to very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes, compared with a gradual transition, produced greater reductions in smoking behavior, smoke exposure, and dependence. However, there was less compliance with the instruction to smoke only VLNC cigarettes in the immediate versus gradual reduction condition. The goal of this study was to test whether nicotine reduction method alters subjective ratings of VLNC cigarettes, and whether subjective ratings mediate effects of nicotine reduction method on smoking behavior, smoke exposure, dependence, and compliance. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a randomized trial conducted across 10 sites in the United States. Smokers (n = 1250) were randomized to either a control condition, or to have the nicotine content of their cigarettes reduced immediately or gradually to 0.04 mg nicotine/g of tobacco during a 20-week study period. Participants completed the modified Cigarette Evaluation Questionnaire (mCEQ). RESULTS: After Week 20, the immediate reduction group scored significantly lower than the gradual reduction group on multiple subscales of the mCEQ (ps < .001). The Satisfaction subscale of the mCEQ mediated the impact of nicotine reduction method on smoke exposure, smoking behavior, dependence, compliance, and abstinence. Other subscales also mediated a subset of these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: An immediate reduction in nicotine content resulted in lower product satisfaction than a gradual reduction, suggesting that immediate reduction further reduces cigarette reward value. This study will provide the Food and Drug Administration with information about the impact of nicotine reduction method on cigarette reward value. IMPLICATIONS: These data suggest that an immediate reduction in nicotine content will result in greater reductions in cigarette satisfaction than a gradual reduction, and this reduction in satisfaction is related to changes in smoking behavior and dependence.