Surveillance for variants of SARS-CoV-2 to inform risk assessments.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have emerged, some leading to large increases in infections, hospitalizations and deaths globally. The virus's impact on public health depends on many factors, including the emergence of new viral variants and their global spread. Consequently, the early detection and surveillance of variants and characterization of their clinical effects are vital for assessing their health risk. The unprecedented capacity for viral genomic sequencing and data sharing built globally during the pandemic has enabled new variants to be rapidly detected and assessed. This article describes the main variants circulating globally between January 2020 and June 2023, the genetic features driving variant evolution, and the epidemiological impact of these variants across countries and regions. Second, we report how integrating genetic variant surveillance with epidemiological data and event-based surveillance, through a network of World Health Organization partners, supported risk assessment and helped provide guidance on pandemic responses. In addition, given the evolutionary characteristics of circulating variants and the immune status of populations, we propose future directions for the sustainable genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, both nationally and internationally: (i) optimizing variant surveillance by including environmental monitoring; (ii) coordinating laboratory assessment of variant evolution and phenotype; (iii) linking data on circulating variants with clinical data; and (iv) expanding genomic surveillance to additional pathogens. Experience during the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that genomic surveillance of pathogens can provide essential, timely and evidence-based information for public health decision-making.

Depuis le début de la pandémie de coronavirus survenue en 2019 (COVID-19), de nombreux variants du coronavirus 2 du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (SARS-CoV-2) sont apparus, certains entraînant une forte augmentation du nombre d'infections, d'hospitalisations et de décès dans le monde. L'impact du virus sur la santé publique dépend de nombreux facteurs, notamment l'émergence de nouveaux variants viraux et leur propagation à l'échelle mondiale. Par conséquent, la détection précoce et la surveillance des variants ainsi que la caractérisation de leurs effets cliniques sont essentielles pour évaluer leur risque pour la santé. La capacité sans précédent de séquençage du génome viral et de partage des données, capacité mise en place à l'échelle mondiale pendant la pandémie, a permis de détecter et d'évaluer rapidement de nouveaux variants. Le présent article décrit les principaux variants circulant dans le monde entre janvier 2020 et juin 2023, les caractéristiques génétiques à l'origine de leur évolution et leur impact épidémiologique dans les différents pays et régions. Ensuite, nous expliquerons comment l'intégration de la surveillance des variants génétiques aux données épidémiologiques et à la surveillance fondée sur les événements, par l'intermédiaire d'un réseau de partenaires de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé, a permis de faciliter l'évaluation des risques et de fournir des orientations sur les mesures à prendre en période de pandémie. En outre, compte tenu des caractéristiques évolutives des variants en circulation et de l'état immunitaire des populations, nous proposons des orientations futures pour une surveillance génomique durable des variants du SARS-CoV-2, au niveau tant national qu'international: (i) optimiser la surveillance des variants en incluant le suivi environnemental; (ii) coordonner l'évaluation en laboratoire de l'évolution des variants et du phénotype; (iii) établir un lien entre les données sur les variants en circulation et les données cliniques; et (iv) étendre la surveillance génomique à d'autres agents pathogènes. L'expérience de la pandémie de COVID-19 a mis en évidence que la surveillance génomique des agents pathogènes peut fournir en temps utile des informations essentielles fondées sur des preuves en vue de la prise de décisions en matière de santé publique.

Desde el inicio de la pandemia de la enfermedad por coronavirus de 2019 (COVID-19), han aparecido numerosas variantes del coronavirus de tipo 2 causante del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo (SRAS-CoV-2), algunas de las que han provocado un gran aumento de las infecciones, hospitalizaciones y muertes en todo el mundo. El impacto del virus en la salud pública depende de muchos factores, entre ellos la aparición de nuevas variantes víricas y su propagación mundial. En consecuencia, la detección y vigilancia tempranas de las variantes y la caracterización de sus efectos clínicos son vitales para evaluar su riesgo sanitario. La capacidad sin precedentes de secuenciación genómica viral y de intercambio de datos creada a nivel mundial durante la pandemia ha permitido detectar y evaluar rápidamente variantes nuevas. En este artículo se describen las principales variantes que circulan a nivel mundial entre enero de 2020 y junio de 2023, la característica genética que impulsa la evolución de las variantes y el impacto epidemiológico de estas variantes en los diferentes países y regiones. En segundo lugar, se informa de cómo la integración de la vigilancia de variantes genéticas con los datos epidemiológicos y la vigilancia basada en eventos, a través de una red de asociados de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, apoyó la evaluación de riesgos y ayudó a proporcionar orientación sobre las respuestas a la pandemia. Además, dadas las características evolutivas de las variantes circulantes y el estado inmunitario de las poblaciones, se proponen orientaciones futuras para la vigilancia genómica sostenible de las variantes del SRAS-CoV-2, tanto a nivel nacional como internacional: (i) optimizar la vigilancia de las variantes mediante la inclusión de la monitorización ambiental; (ii) coordinar la evaluación de laboratorio de la evolución y el fenotipo de las variantes; (iii) vincular los datos sobre las variantes circulantes con los datos clínicos; y (iv) ampliar la vigilancia genómica a patógenos adicionales. La experiencia durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha demostrado que la vigilancia genómica de patógenos puede proporcionar información esencial, oportuna y basada en evidencias para la toma de decisiones en materia de salud pública.

Testing the Feasibility and Acceptability of a Religiously-Tailored Text Messaging Intervention to Reduce Smoking Among Somali Muslim Men During Ramadan.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of smoking among Somali Muslim male immigrants residing in Minnesota is estimated at 44%, however smoking reduction is common during the month of Ramadan. This study evaluated the feasibility and impact of a religiously tailored text message intervention delivered during Ramadan to encourage smoking reduction among Somali Muslim men who smoke. METHODS: Fifty Somali men were recruited. Participants received two text messages per day starting 1 week prior to and throughout the month of Ramadan. Approximately half were religiously tailored and half were about the risks of smoking and benefits of quitting. Smoking behavior was assessed at baseline, and at weeks 4 (end of Ramadan), 8, and 16. Outcomes included feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary impact of the text message intervention on smoking reduction and bioverified abstinence. RESULTS: The average age was 41 years. Average time to first cigarette was 1.8 hours at baseline, and 46% of participants smoked menthol cigarettes. Eighteen of 50 participants selected English and 32 selected Somali text messages. Subjects significantly reduced self-reported cigarettes per day (CPD) from 12.4 CPD at baseline to 5.8 CPD at week 16 (p < 0.001). Seven subjects reported quitting at week 16, five completed CO testing, confirming self-reported abstinence. The majority of participants found the cultural and religious references encouraging at the end of the week 16 survey. CONCLUSIONS: Religiously tailored text messages to decrease smoking are feasible and acceptable to Somali Muslim men who smoke during Ramadan. This intervention for addressing smoking disparities is worthy of further study. IMPLICATIONS: Recruitment of Somali Muslim men who smoke is feasible and supports the idea that further studies targeting smoking during Ramadan are practical. Ramadan presents a window of opportunity upon which to build smoking cessation interventions for smokers who identify as Muslim. These preliminary findings suggest that text messaging is a feasible and acceptable intervention strategy, and that religious tailoring was well received. Such an approach may offer potential for addressing smoking disparities among Somali Muslim male smokers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT03379142.

Text Message Support for Smoking Cessation During Ramadan: A Focus Group Study With Somali Immigrant Muslim Men.

INTRODUCTION: Somali Muslim male immigrants in Minnesota have a high prevalence of smoking, estimated at 44%, compared with the average smoking rate for adults in the United States (14%). However, the literature has reported spontaneous reductions of smoking during Ramadan. This study sought to gather the views of Somali Muslim men on how faith impacts their smoking, and determine what messaging to incorporate into a tailored text messages intervention that draws on the Muslim faith beliefs and practices during Ramadan to promote smoking cessation. METHODS: Thirty-seven Somali adult male smokers were recruited from community settings to participate in one of five focus groups in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Minnesota. The research study team developed a semi-structured focus group guide that explored: (1) the experience of Muslim immigrants quitting smoking during Ramadan, (2) views on text messaging interventions to reduce smoking focusing on health and faith, and (3) views on the relationship between faith and smoking. A thematic analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Participants reported reductions in smoking during Ramadan, which was mostly achieved without formal treatment (ie, willpower). There was interest in text messaging interventions that incorporated faith and health-related messages, and that would be delivered around the time of Ramadan. Participants described concerns about the adverse health effects of smoking, including the risk of chronic health issues, cancer, and death. CONCLUSION: Combining faith and health-related text-based messaging, and tailoring interventions around and beyond Ramadan, maybe a valuable approach to help address smoking disparities in the Somali immigrant community. IMPLICATIONS: Ramadan offers a unique window of opportunity to intervene upon smoking for Somali Muslim immigrant men, for whom rates of smoking are high. Combining faith and health-related text-based messaging, and tailoring interventions around and beyond Ramadan, maybe a valuable approach to help address these serious smoking disparities.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2018-September 2019.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only countries that continue to confirm ongoing wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) transmission (1). During January 2018-September 2019 the number of WPV1 cases in Pakistan increased, compared with the number during the previous 4 years. This report updates previous reports on Pakistan's polio eradication activities, progress, and challenges (2,3). In 2018, Pakistan reported 12 WPV1 cases, a 50% increase from eight cases in 2017, and a 31% increase in the proportion of WPV1-positive sites under environmental surveillance (i.e., sampling of sewage to detect poliovirus). As of November 7, 2019, 80 WPV1 cases had been reported, compared with eight cases by the same time in 2018. An intensive schedule of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)* implemented by community health workers in the core reservoirs (i.e., Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta) where WPV1 circulation has never been interrupted, and by mobile teams, has failed to interrupt WPV1 transmission in core reservoirs and prevent WPV1 resurgence in nonreservoir areas. Sewage samples have indicated wide WPV1 transmission in nonreservoir areas in other districts and provinces. Vaccine refusals, chronically missed children, community campaign fatigue, and poor vaccination management and implementation have exacerbated the situation. To overcome challenges to vaccinating children who are chronically missed in SIAs and to attain country and global polio eradication goals, substantial changes are needed in Pakistan's polio eradication program, including continuing cross-border coordination with Afghanistan, gaining community trust, conducting high-quality vaccination campaigns, improving oversight of field activities, and improving managerial processes to unify eradication efforts.

Effect of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine Campaigns, Pakistan, 2014-2017.

Pakistan began using inactivated poliovirus vaccine alongside oral vaccine in mass campaigns to accelerate eradication of wild-type poliovirus in 2014. Using case-based and environmental surveillance data for January 2014-October 2017, we found that these campaigns reduced wild-type poliovirus detection more than campaigns that used only oral vaccine.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2017-September 2018.

Among the three wild poliovirus (WPV) serotypes, only WPV type 1 (WPV1) has been reported in polio cases or detected from environmental surveillance globally since 2012. Pakistan remains one of only three countries worldwide (the others are Afghanistan and Nigeria) that has never had interrupted WPV1 transmission. This report documents Pakistan's activities and progress toward polio eradication during January 2017-September 2018 and updates previous reports (1,2). In 2017, Pakistan reported eight WPV1 cases, a 60% decrease from 20 cases in 2016. As of September 18, 2018, four cases had been reported, compared with five cases at that time in 2017. Nonetheless, in 2018, WPV1 continues to be isolated regularly from environmental surveillance sites, primarily in the core reservoir areas of Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar, signifying persistent transmission. Strategies to increase childhood immunity have included an intense schedule of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), expanding and refining deployment of community-based vaccination implemented by community health workers recruited from the local community in reservoir areas, and strategic placement of permanent transit points where vaccination is provided to mobile populations. Interruption of WPV1 transmission will require further programmatic improvements throughout the country with a focus on specific underperforming subdistricts in reservoir areas.

Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources. METHODS: Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases. RESULTS: The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2016-September 2017.

In 1988, the World Health Assembly launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Among the three wild poliovirus serotypes, only wild poliovirus (WPV) type 1 (WPV1) has been detected since 2012. Since 2014, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria remain the only countries with continuing endemic WPV1 transmission. This report describes activities conducted and progress made toward the eradication of poliovirus in Pakistan during January 2016-July 2017 and provides an update to previous reports (1,2). In 2016, Pakistan reported 20 WPV1 cases, a 63% decrease compared with 54 cases in 2015 (3). As of September 25, 2017, five WPV1 cases have been reported in 2017, representing a 69% decline compared with 16 cases reported during the same period in 2016 (Figure 1). During January-September 2017, WPV1 was detected in 72 of 468 (15%) environmental samples collected, compared with 36 of 348 (9%) samples collected during the same period in 2016. WPV1 was detected in environmental samples in areas where no polio cases are being reported, which indicates that WPV1 transmission is continuing in some high-risk areas. Interruption of WPV transmission in Pakistan requires maintaining focus on reaching missed children (particularly among mobile populations), continuing community-based vaccination, implementing the 2017-2018 National Emergency Action Plan (4), and improving routine immunization services.

Response to a Large Polio Outbreak in a Setting of Conflict - Middle East, 2013-2015.

As the world advances toward the eradication of polio, outbreaks of wild poliovirus (WPV) in polio-free regions pose a substantial risk to the timeline for global eradication. Countries and regions experiencing active conflict, chronic insecurity, and large-scale displacement of persons are particularly vulnerable to outbreaks because of the disruption of health care and immunization services (1). A polio outbreak occurred in the Middle East, beginning in Syria in 2013 with subsequent spread to Iraq (2). The outbreak occurred 2 years after the onset of the Syrian civil war, resulted in 38 cases, and was the first time WPV was detected in Syria in approximately a decade (3,4). The national governments of eight countries designated the outbreak a public health emergency and collaborated with partners in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) to develop a multiphase outbreak response plan focused on improving the quality of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance* and administering polio vaccines to >27 million children during multiple rounds of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs).† Successful implementation of the response plan led to containment and interruption of the outbreak within 6 months of its identification. The concerted approach adopted in response to this outbreak could serve as a model for responding to polio outbreaks in settings of conflict and political instability.

Fractional-Dose Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine Campaign - Sindh Province, Pakistan, 2016.

Following the declaration of eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) type 2 in September 2015, trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) was withdrawn globally to reduce the risk for type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) transmission; all countries implemented a synchronized switch to bivalent OPV (type 1 and 3) in April 2016 (1,2). Any isolation of VDPV2 after the switch is to be treated as a potential public health emergency and might indicate the need for supplementary immunization activities (3,4). On August 9, 2016, VDPV2 was isolated from a sewage sample taken from an environmental surveillance site in Hyderabad, Sindh province, Pakistan. Possible vaccination activities in response to VDPV2 isolation include the use of injectable inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), which poses no risk for vaccine-derived poliovirus transmission. Fractional-dose, intradermal IPV (fIPV), one fifth of the standard intramuscular dose, has been developed to more efficiently manage limited IPV supplies. fIPV has been shown in some studies to be noninferior to full-dose IPV (5,6) and was used successfully in response to a similar detection of a single VDPV2 isolate from sewage in India (7). Injectable fIPV was used for response activities in Hyderabad and three neighboring districts. This report describes the findings of an assessment of preparatory activities and subsequent implementation of the fIPV campaign. Despite achieving high coverage (>80%), several operational challenges were noted. The lessons learned from this campaign could help to guide the planning and implementation of future fIPV vaccination activities.