How well does the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation identify income and employment deprived individuals across the urban-rural spectrum and between local authorities?

BACKGROUND: Area-based indices of deprivation are used to identify populations at need, to inform service planning and policy, to rank populations for monitoring trends in inequalities, and to evaluate the impacts of interventions. There is scepticism of the utility of area deprivation indices in rural areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of their populations. OBJECTIVE: To compare the sensitivity of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) for detecting income and employment deprived individuals by urban-rural classification and across local authorities. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive analysis of cross-sectional data. METHODS: Data from the 2020 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) were used to calculate the number and percentage of income and employment deprived people missed within each of the six-fold urban-rural classification strata and each local authority using areas ranked by the national SIMD, within local authority rankings, and within urban-rural strata rankings, for deprivation thresholds between the 5% most deprived areas and the 30% most deprived areas. The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated within local authorities and urban-rural classification strata to estimate the concentration of deprivation within ranked data zones. RESULTS: The number and percentage of income and employment deprived people is higher in urban than rural areas. However, using the national, local authority, and within urban-rural classification strata rankings of SIMD, and under all deprivation thresholds (from the 5%-30% most deprived areas), the percentage of income and employment deprived people missed by targeting the most deprived areas within urban-rural strata is higher in more remote and rural areas, and in island local authorities. The absolute number of income and employment deprived individuals is greater in urban areas across rankings and thresholds. CONCLUSION: The SIMD misses a higher percentage of income and employment deprived people in remote, rural and island areas across deprivation thresholds and irrespective of whether national, local or within urban-rural classification strata are used. However, the absolute number of people missed is higher in urban areas.

How important is it to avoid indices of deprivation that include health variables in analyses of health inequalities?

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantify the difference in mortality inequalities using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) and the Income and Employment Index (IEI; a subindex of SIMD, which excludes health) as ranking measures in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: This ecological study was a cross-sectional analysis of routine administrative data. METHODS: Data from the 2020 SIMD and the subindex using data from only the Income and Employment domains, the IEI, were obtained. The correlation between data zones, percentage of data zones that changed deprivation tenth and differences in the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) for Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) across tenths were compared when data zones were ranked by SIMD and IEI. RESULTS: There was a close correlation between data zones ranked by SIMD and IEI (R2 = 0.96). When data zones were ranked by IEI, 18.7% of data zones moved to a lower deprivation tenth, and 20.8% of data zones moved to a higher deprivation tenth, compared with SIMD. However, only a negligible number of data zones moved two or more tenths. The SMRs across deprivation tenths were very similar between the SIMD and IEI, as were the summary health inequality measures of SII (87.3 compared with 85.7) and RII (0.88 and 0.86). CONCLUSION: Although there is a logical problem in using deprivation indices that include health outcomes to rank areas to calculate the scale of health inequalities, the impact of using an alternative subindex containing only data from the income and employment domains is minimal. For population-wide analyses of health inequalities in Scotland, the SIMD does not introduce a substantial bias in the health inequalities summary measures despite substantial movement of small areas between ranked population tenths. Although not examined here, this is likely to be relevant to other similar indices across the United Kingdom.

How well do area-based deprivation indices identify income- and employment-deprived individuals across Great Britain today?

BACKGROUND: Area-based deprivation indices are used in many countries to target interventions and policies to populations with the greatest needs. Analyses of the Carstairs deprivation index applied to postcode sectors in 2001 identified that less than half of all deprived individuals lived in the most deprived areas. OBJECTIVE: This article examines the specificity and sensitivity of deprivation indices across Great Britain in identifying individuals claiming income- and employment-related social security benefits. STUDY DESIGN: This was a descriptive analysis of cross-sectional administrative data. METHODS: The data sets for the 2020 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, Scottish Income and Employment Index, the 2019 English Index of Multiple Deprivation and the 2019 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation were obtained. For each data set, small areas were ranked by increasing overall deprivation, and the cumulative proportions of individuals who were income and employment deprived were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted to show the sensitivity and specificity of each index, and the percentages of income- and employment-deprived individuals captured at different overall deprivation thresholds were calculated. RESULTS: Across all indices, the sensitivity and specificity for detecting income- and employment-deprived individuals were low, with less than half living in the most deprived 20% of areas. Between 55% and 62% of income-deprived people and between 56% and 63% of employment-deprived people were missed across the indices at the 20% deprivation threshold. The sensitivity and specificity were slightly higher for income deprivation than employment deprivation across indices and slightly higher for the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and Scottish Income and Employment Index than for the English Index of Multiple Deprivation and Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation. CONCLUSION: Area-based deprivation measures in Great Britain have limited sensitivity and specificity for identifying individuals who are income or employment deprived. Place-based policies and interventions are unlikely to be effective at reducing inequalities as a result. Creation of individually linked data sets and interventions that recognise the social and economic relationships between social groups are likely to be more effective.

Economic relationships and health inequalities: improving public health recommendations.

Policy recommendations, which aim to reduce health inequalities in society, often focus upon improving the incomes, working conditions and physical environments of the most deprived groups. We agree with these recommendations but argue that they are insufficient to reduce health inequalities because they fail to address the economic relationships between social groups that lead to health inequalities and which perpetuate them over time. A comprehensive programme to reduce health inequalities will require policies that address the numerous ways in which economic resources flow from poorer groups to richer groups through the design of the economy. In this commentary we describe key economic relationships between social groups that lead to inequalities, namely rent, interest, capital gains, profit, monopoly and speculation. Addressing these causes of economic inequality in recommendations to reduce health inequalities should be considered by future research in this area.

Defining health and health inequalities.

OBJECTIVES: To examine existing definitions of health and health inequalities and to synthesise the most useful of these using explicit rationale and the most parsimonious text. STUDY DESIGN: Literature review and synthesis. METHODS: Existing definitions of health and health inequalities were identified, and their normative properties were extracted and then critically appraised. Using explicit reasoning, new definitions, synthesising the most useful aspects of existing definitions, were created. RESULTS: A definition of health as a structural, functional and emotional state that is compatible with effective life as an individual and as a member of society and a definition of health inequalities as the systematic, avoidable and unfair differences in health outcomes that can be observed between populations, between social groups within the same population or as a gradient across a population ranked by social position are proposed. Population health is a less commonly used term but can usefully be defined to encompass the average, distribution and inequalities in health within a society. CONCLUSIONS: Clarifying what is meant by the terms health and health inequalities, and the assumptions, emphasis and values that different definitions contain, is important for public health research, practice and policy.

History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow.

OBJECTIVES: High levels of excess mortality (i.e. that not explained by deprivation) have been observed for Scotland compared with England & Wales, and especially for Glasgow in comparison with similar post-industrial cities such as Liverpool and Manchester. Many potential explanations have been suggested. Based on an assessment of these, the aim was to develop an understanding of the most likely underlying causes. Note that this paper distils a larger research report, with the aim of reaching wider audiences beyond Scotland, as the important lessons learnt are relevant to other populations. STUDY DESIGN: Review and dialectical synthesis of evidence. METHODS: Forty hypotheses were examined, including those identified from a systematic review. The relevance of each was assessed by means of Bradford Hill's criteria for causality alongside-for hypotheses deemed causally linked to mortality-comparisons of exposures between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, and between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. Where gaps in the evidence base were identified, new research was undertaken. Causal chains of relevant hypotheses were created, each tested in terms of its ability to explain the many different aspects of excess mortality. The models were further tested with key informants from public health and other disciplines. RESULTS: In Glasgow's case, the city was made more vulnerable to important socioeconomic (deprivation, deindustrialisation) and political (detrimental economic and social policies) exposures, resulting in worse outcomes. This vulnerability was generated by a series of historical factors, processes and decisions: the lagged effects of historical overcrowding; post-war regional policy including the socially selective relocation of population to outside the city; more detrimental processes of urban change which impacted on living conditions; and differences in local government responses to UK government policy in the 1980s which both impacted in negative terms in Glasgow and also conferred protective effects on comparator cities. Further resulting protective factors were identified (e.g. greater 'social capital' in Liverpool) which placed Glasgow at a further relative disadvantage. Other contributory factors were highlighted, including the inadequate measurement of deprivation. A similar 'explanatory model' resulted for Scotland as a whole. This included: the components of the Glasgow model, given their impact on nationally measured outcomes; inadequate measurement of deprivation; the lagged effects of deprivation (in particular higher levels of overcrowding historically); and additional key vulnerabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The work has helped to further understanding of the underlying causes of Glasgow's and Scotland's high levels of excess mortality. The implications for policy include the need to address three issues simultaneously: to protect against key exposures (e.g. poverty) which impact detrimentally across all parts of the UK; to address the existing consequences of Glasgow's and Scotland's vulnerability; and to mitigate against the effects of future vulnerabilities which are likely to emerge from policy responses to contemporary problems which fail sufficiently to consider and to prevent long-term, unintended social consequences.

Regeneration and health: a structured, rapid literature review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and synthesise what is known about the impacts of regeneration on health, health inequalities and their socio-economic determinants. STUDY DESIGN: Rapid, structured literature review. METHODS: A rapid, structured approach was undertaken to identifying relevant studies involving a search of peer-reviewed literature databases, an Internet search to identify relevant grey literature, and a review of articles citing two key systematic reviews. The identified citations were screened, critically appraised according to the research design and narratively synthesised. RESULTS: Of the 1382 identified citations, 46 were screened as relevant to the review and included in the synthesis. Fifteen citations were reviews but most of the evidence identified or included within the reviews was of medium or low quality due to a lack of longitudinal follow-up, low response rates or attrition. The evidence base on the impacts of regeneration is generally not of high quality and is prone to bias. However, it is theorised as being an important means of addressing the socio-economic determinants of health. Housing refurbishment (generally, and for specific improvements) seems likely to lead to small improvements in health, whereas rehousing and mixed-tenure approaches have less clear impacts on health and carry risks of disruption to social networks and higher rents. Changes in the social composition of communities (gentrification) is a common outcome of regeneration and some 'partnership' approaches to regeneration have been shown to have caused difficulties within communities. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence base for regeneration activities is limited but they have substantial potential to contribute to improving population health. Better quality evidence is available for there being positive health impacts from housing-led regeneration programmes involving refurbishment and specific housing improvements. There is also some evidence of the potential harms of regeneration activities, including social stratification (gentrification and residualisation) and the destabilisation of existing community organisations. Broader labour market and housing policy approaches are also likely to be important as a context for understanding impacts. Regeneration programmes require careful design, implementation and evaluation if they are to contribute to improved health and reduced health inequalities.

Is there a link between childhood adversity, attachment style and Scotland's excess mortality? Evidence, challenges and potential research.

BACKGROUND: Scotland has a persistently high mortality rate that is not solely due to the effects of socio-economic deprivation. This "excess" mortality is observed across the entire country, but is greatest in and around the post-industrial conurbation of West Central Scotland. Despite systematic investigation, the causes of the excess mortality remain the subject of ongoing debate. DISCUSSION: Attachment processes are a fundamental part of human development, and have a profound influence on adult personality and behaviour, especially in response to stressors. Many studies have also shown that childhood adversity is correlated with adult morbidity and mortality. The interplay between childhood adversity and attachment is complex and not fully elucidated, but will include socio-economic, intergenerational and psychological factors. Importantly, some adverse health outcomes for parents (such as problem substance use or suicide) will simultaneously act as risk factors for their children. Data show that some forms of "household dysfunction" relating to childhood adversity are more prevalent in Scotland: such problems include parental problem substance use, rates of imprisonment, rates of suicide and rates of children being taken into care. However other measures of childhood or family wellbeing have not been found to be substantially different in Scotland compared to England. We suggest in this paper that the role of childhood adversity and attachment experience merits further investigation as a plausible mechanism influencing health in Scotland. A model is proposed which sets out some of the interactions between the factors of interest, and we propose parameters for the types of study which would be required to evaluate the validity of the model.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change.

OBJECTIVE: This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). STUDY DESIGN: Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling. METHODS: Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity. RESULTS: Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). STUDY DESIGN: Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. METHODS: We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. RESULTS: The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s. CONCLUSIONS: Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland.

Mortality differences and inequalities within and between 'protected characteristics' groups, in a Scottish Cohort 1991-2009.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the interaction between socio-economic status and 'protected characteristics' in Scotland. This study aimed to examine whether differences in mortality were moderated by interactions with social class or deprivation. The practical value was to pinpoint population groups for priority action on health inequality reduction and health improvement rather than a sole focus on the most deprived socioeconomic groups. METHODS: We used data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study which captures a 5.3 % sample of Scotland and links the censuses of 1991, 2001 and 2011. Hazard ratios for mortality were estimated for those protected characteristics with sufficient deaths using Cox proportional hazards models and through the calculation of European age-standardised mortality rates. Inequality was measured by calculating the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). RESULTS: The Asian population had a polarised distribution across deprivation deciles and was more likely to be in social class I and II. Those reporting disablement were more likely to live in deprived areas, as were those raised Roman Catholic, whilst those raised as Church of Scotland or as 'other Christian' were less likely to. Those aged 35-54 years were the least likely to live in deprived areas and were most likely to be in social class I and II. Males had higher mortality than females, and disabled people had higher mortality than non-disabled people, across all deprivation deciles and social classes. Asian males and females had generally lower mortality hazards than majority ethnic ('White') males and females although the estimates for Asian males and females were imprecise in some social classes and deprivation deciles. Males and females who reported their raised religion as Roman Catholic or reported 'No religion' had generally higher mortality than other groups, although the estimates for 'Other religion' and 'Other Christian' were less precise.Using both the area deprivation and social class distributions for the whole population, relative mortality inequalities were usually greater amongst those who did not report being disabled, Asians and females aged 35-44 years, males by age, and people aged <75 years. The RIIs for the raised religious groups were generally similar or too imprecise to comment on differences. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in Scotland is higher in the majority population, disabled people, males, those reporting being raised as Roman Catholics or with 'no religion' and lower in Asians, females and other religious groups. Relative inequalities in mortality were lower in disabled than nondisabled people, the majority population, females, and greatest in young adults. From the perspective of intersectionality theory, our results clearly demonstrate the importance of representing multiple identities in research on health inequalities.

Growing up in Glasgow: the social context of adolescence.

The adolescent population of Glasgow, the city with the highest mortality in the UK, has a higher prevalence of risk behaviours than elsewhere in Scotland. Previous research has highlighted the importance of social context in interpreting such differences. Contextual variables from the 2010 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Scotland survey were analysed. Glaswegian adolescents were more likely to live in low socioeconomic status, single-parent or step-families, or with neither parent in employment, less likely to share family meals, more likely to buy lunch outside school, and spend time with friends after school and in the evenings. They also had a poorer perception of their local neighbourhood. Family affluence only partially explained these differences.

How robust is the calculation of health inequality trends by educational attainment in England and Wales using the Longitudinal Study?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Inequalities in mortality by educational attainment are wider in Eastern Europe than in West and Central Europe, but have thus far been largely limited to cross-sectional analyses. This study explored the potential to use the Longitudinal Study to describe trends in mortality inequality by educational attainment in England and Wales from 1971 to 2009 and the limitations in the available data. STUDY DESIGN: Comparison of cohort studies. METHODS: Data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study were used which takes a sample of respondees from each Census (1971-2001) and links them to death certification. Age-standardized mortality was calculated by educational attainment for those aged 25-69 years as was the Relative Index of Inequality and Slope Index of Inequality for men and women for each time period. RESULTS: Overall mortality declined in all categories of educational attainment for men and women from 1971. Limited data were collected on educational attainment in the Censuses prior to 2001, combined with the high proportion of respondents with missing data or reporting 'no education', meant that estimates of inequalities for the period 1971 to 2000 were very imprecise and likely to be misleading. For 2001-2009, the slope index of inequality was 268 (95% CI 57-478) and relative index of inequality was 0.61 (95% CI 0.13-1.10) for the total population; 354 (95% CI 72-636) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.14-1.21) respectively for men; and 231 (95% CI 72-389) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.21-1.11) respectively for women. CONCLUSIONS: Limited educational data in the Censuses prior to 2001 makes calculation of mortality inequalities by educational attainment in England and Wales imprecise and potentially misleading. International comparisons and time trend analyses using these data prior to 2001 should be done with great caution.

Is 'excess' mortality in Glasgow an artefact of measurement?

OBJECTIVES: A previous investigation of Glasgow's excess mortality showed that the (income) deprivation profiles for Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester were nearly identical. Despite this, premature deaths in Glasgow were found to be more than 30% higher, and all deaths 15% higher, than in the English cities. This study aimed to explore the extent to which Glasgow's higher mortality could be explained by the use of a potentially more sensitive measure of deprivation employed at a suitably small and consistent geographical spatial unit. STUDY DESIGN: Analyses of mortality based on the creation of a three-city index of deprivation using rates of 'car/van ownership' deprivation for small areas (average population size: 1600) in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester derived from the census. METHODS: Rates of 'car/van ownership deprivation were calculated for small areas in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester. All-cause and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios were calculated for Glasgow relative to Liverpool and Manchester, standardizing for age, gender and deprivation decile. RESULTS: The overall levels of car/van ownership based deprivation in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester, in 2001, differed. Glasgow had a higher percentage of its population who did not have access to a car compared with Liverpool and Manchester. All-cause mortality, after adjustment for age, sex and this measure of deprivation, for deaths <65 years were 15% higher and 8% higher for all deaths for males and females respectively. However, this was lower than the excess observed in the previous study. 'Excess' mortality was greatest in the working age groups of 15-44 years and 45-64 years, where it was 23% and 15% higher respectively. For deaths at all ages after adjustment, analysis by deprivation decile showed that excess mortality in Glasgow was seen in half the deciles, including four of the five most deprived deciles. However, the greatest excess was seen in comparison of the least deprived neighbourhoods. For premature mortality (deaths under 65 years), the excess was mainly driven by higher mortality in the five most deprived deciles (6-10); again, however, a high excess was seen in comparisons of the least deprived areas. CONCLUSIONS: The higher mortality in Glasgow compared to equally income-deprived Liverpool and Manchester cannot be fully explained by a deprivation index based on lack of access to a car or van, but this index does explain more of the excess than income deprivation. Further work to establish better measures of deprivation and to explain this excess are required.

Comparing levels of social capital in three northern post-industrial UK cities.

OBJECTIVES: A high level of 'excess' mortality (i.e. that seemingly not explained by deprivation) has been shown for Scotland compared to England & Wales and, in particular, for its largest city, Glasgow, compared to the similarly deprived postindustrial English cities of Liverpool and Manchester. The excess has been observed across all social classes, but, for premature mortality, has been shown to be highest in comparison of those of lowest socio-economic status (SES). Many theories have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. One such suggestion relates to potential differences in social capital between the cities, given the previously evidenced links between social capital and mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether any aspects of social capital differed between the cities and whether, therefore, this might be a plausible explanation for some of the excess mortality observed in Glasgow. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Social capital was measured using an expanded version of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) core 'Social Capital Harmonised Question Set'. Differences between the cities in five sets of social capital topics (views about the local area, civic participation, social networks and support, social participation, and reciprocity and trust) were explored by means of a series of multivariate regression models, while controlling for differences in the characteristics (age, gender, SES, ethnicity etc.) of the samples. RESULTS: Some, but not all, aspects of social capital were lower among the Glasgow sample compared to those in Liverpool and Manchester. A number of these differences were greatest among those of higher, rather than lower, SES. Levels of social participation, trust and (some measures of) reciprocity were lower in Glasgow, particularly in comparison with Liverpool. However, assessment of any potential impact of these differences is limited by the cross-sectional nature of the data. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses suggest it is at least possible that differences in some aspects of social capital could play some part in explaining Glasgow's excess mortality, especially among particular sections of its population (e.g. those of higher SES). However, in the absence of more detailed longitudinal data, this remains speculative.

Trends in termination of pregnancy in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester.

BACKGROUND: Research published in 2010 showed that premature mortality in Glasgow over the period 2003-2007 was 30% higher than that in Liverpool and Manchester, despite the three cities sharing almost identical levels and patterns of socio-economic deprivation. A number of theories have been proposed to explain this discrepancy, including [in the light of US research linking variations in the termination of pregnancy (ToP) rate to differences in social and health outcomes] the suggestion that variations in current levels of mortality across the cities could be influenced by differences in earlier ToP rates. OBJECTIVES: To undertake further analyses of mortality data for Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester to assess the likelihood of differences in ToP rates influencing rates of excess mortality in Glasgow; to analyse long-term trends in numbers and ToP rates in the three cities (and, for comparison, between Scotland and England); and to investigate potential explanations for any differences in ToP rates. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Mortality analyses were based on the same age-, sex- and deprivation-standardized data that were used in the previous research on the three cities. ToP data (and population denominator data) covering the period 1980-2009 were obtained from Scottish and English national organizations. Historical national ToP data for the years 1969-1979 were obtained from an additional published source. Rates were calculated per female aged 15-44 years and, for analyses of ToP among teenagers, per female aged 15-19 years. Potential explanations for differences in rates were investigated by means of literature searches and discussions with key informants. RESULTS: The ToP rate in Glasgow was lower than the ToP rates in Liverpool and Manchester over the total period analysed (as was the case for Scotland compared with England and Wales), although the gap has narrowed considerably, especially among females aged <20 years. This is due to a greater increase in the ToP rate in Glasgow (and Scotland), attributed, in part, to better access to ToP services. The differences in ToP rates do not appear to have been influenced by women travelling to England from Ireland for access to ToP facilities, nor by Glaswegian women travelling outside Scotland for the same reason. However, 90% of 'excess' deaths that took place in Glasgow compared with Liverpool and Manchester between 2003 and 2007 related to individuals born prior to the 1967 Abortion Act; these excess deaths, therefore, are not influenced by earlier variations in ToP rates. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in ToP rates between the cities are unlikely to impact on variations in later mortality rates. Thus, while the topic of ToP is important, investigation into the reasons behind Glasgow's excess mortality levels should focus on other hypotheses.

Public health priority setting on a national scale: The Scottish experience.

Objectives: Scotland has the lowest life expectancy in Western Europe and significant health inequalities. A national review of public health in 2015 found that there was a lack of coherent action across organisational boundaries, inhibiting progress. This paper describes a rapid (four-month) systematic approach to prioritisation of Scotland's public health challenges, which was evidence-based, transparent and made use of significant stakeholder engagement. Study design: Cross-sectional survey of stakeholders in deliberative meetings. Methods: An independent Expert Advisory Group (EAG) was formed to develop a typology of public health priorities, a long-list of potential priorities and ranking criteria. Deliberative stakeholder events were held at which the criteria were refined and priorities scored by participants from a wide range of stakeholder organisations. Results: The proposed typology identified three types of public health priorities: risk factors, social factors and system factors; medically defined disease entities were not used deliberately, to facilitate broad stakeholder participation. Fifteen criteria were identified to help identify priority issues, based on the scope of their burden, amenability to change, and multi-stakeholder preferences. Six public health priorities were selected by the EAG based on stakeholder scoring of a long-list against these criteria. Conclusion: Prioritisation is important in modern public health but it is challenging due to limited data availability, lack of agreed evidence on effectiveness and efficiency of interventions, and divergent stakeholder views. The Scottish experience nevertheless shows that useful public health priorities can be agreed upon by a wide range of stakeholders through a transparent, participatory and logical process.

Public health on-call in Scotland: how much experience is sufficient?

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the out-of-hours experience obtained by public health trainees in Scotland and to assess whether this is sufficient to meet the Faculty of Public Health guidelines. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective survey. METHODS: All public health trainees in Scotland were invited to participate in a prospective survey of out-of-hours experience. Data were collected from March 2009 to March 2010. The variation in the experience between trainees was compared according to the size, urban/rural mix, and deprivation of the population for which they were responsible. The variation in the experiences gained were then compared to the requirements of the Faculty of Public Health. RESULTS: 18 trainees participated from 6 areas, collecting data on 391 shifts and a total of 276 calls. For every 50 shifts the median number of notifications of probable meningococcus was 3.7 and the median number of chemical incidents and Escherichia coli O157 notifications was 0.0. This variation is difficult to interpret because some trainees collected data for only a short period. The variation between trainees was not significantly related to population size, deprivation or rurality. Pooling the data from all trainees, there was a mean of 2.9 probable meningococcus notifications, 2.4 E coli O157 calls, and 0.3 chemical incident calls per 50 shifts. CONCLUSIONS: There is a large and unpredictable degree of variation in the on-call experience of Scottish trainees. The minimum recommended number of on-call shifts may not be adequate to ensure a high proportion of trainees are prepared for unsupervised on-call.