A randomized comparative effectiveness study of oral triple therapy versus etanercept plus methotrexate in early aggressive rheumatoid arthritis: the treatment of Early Aggressive Rheumatoid Arthritis Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether it is better to intensively treat all patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using combinations of drugs or to reserve this approach for patients who do not have an appropriate response (as determined by a Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate [DAS28-ESR] of ≥ 3.2 at week 24) to methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy, and to assess whether combination therapy with MTX plus etanercept is superior to the combination of MTX plus sulfasalazine plus hydroxychloroquine. METHODS: The Treatment of Early Aggressive Rheumatoid Arthritis (TEAR) study is a 2-year, randomized, double-blind trial. A 2 × 2 factorial design was used to randomly assign subjects to 1 of 4 treatment arms: immediate treatment with MTX plus etanercept, immediate oral triple therapy (MTX plus sulfasalazine plus hydroxychloroquine), or step-up from MTX monotherapy to one of the combination therapies (MTX plus etanercept or MTX plus sulfasalazine plus hydroxychloroquine) at week 24 if the DAS28-ESR was ≥ 3.2. All treatment arms included matching placebos. The primary outcome was an observed-group analysis of DAS28-ESR values from week 48 to week 102. RESULTS: At week 24 (beginning of the step-up period), subjects in the 2 immediate-treatment groups demonstrated a greater reduction in the DAS28-ESR compared with those in the 2 step-up groups (3.6 versus 4.2; P < 0.0001); no differences between the combination-therapy regimens were observed. Between week 48 and week 102, subjects randomized to the step-up arms had a DAS28-ESR clinical response that was not different from that of subjects who initially received combination therapy, regardless of the treatment arm. There was no significant difference in the DAS28-ESR between subjects randomized to oral triple therapy and those randomized to receive MTX plus etanercept. By week 102, there was a statistically significant difference in the change in radiographic measurements from baseline between the group receiving MTX plus etanercept and the group receiving oral triple therapy (0.64 versus 1.69; P = 0.047). CONCLUSION: There were no differences in the mean DAS28-ESR during weeks 48-102 between subjects randomized to receive MTX plus etanercept and those randomized to triple therapy, regardless of whether they received immediate combination treatment or step-up from MTX monotherapy. At 102 weeks, immediate combination treatment with either strategy was more effective than MTX monotherapy prior to the initiation of step-up therapy. Initial use of MTX monotherapy with the addition of sulfasalazine plus hydroxychloroquine (or etanercept, if necessary, after 6 months) is a reasonable therapeutic strategy for patients with early RA. Treatment with the combination of MTX plus etanercept resulted in a statistically significant radiographic benefit compared with oral triple therapy.

Unintentional weight loss predicts decline in activities of daily living function and life-space mobility over 4 years among community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI), weight loss, and changes in activities of daily living (ADL) function and mobility in older adults is not clear. We sought to study the relationship between BMI and weight loss on the rate of decline in ADL function and life-space mobility over a 4-year period among older African Americans and whites. METHODS: The participants were 983 enrollees in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging, a longitudinal study of mobility among community-dwelling older adults stratified to achieve a balanced sample in terms of sex, race, and residence. Primary outcome measures were changes in ADL function and mobility assessed by the UAB Study of Aging Life-Space Assessment (LSA) which were measured every 6 months. RESULTS: Relative to normal weight participants, those with BMI levels in the obese range did not show more rapid ADL functional decline, but a history of unintentional weight loss predicted more rapid decline. Relative to normal-weight participants, other BMI categories were not associated with more rapid decline in LSA scores. However, unintentional weight loss predicted more rapid declines in LSA. Intentional weight loss had no relation to ADL function or LSA decline. CONCLUSIONS: In this population of community-dwelling older African Americans and whites, neither BMI nor intentional weight loss had an association with rate of functional decline. Unintentional weight loss had a negative relation with rate of functional decline, regardless of baseline BMI. Whether this is causal remains to be determined.

Clinical response within 12 weeks as a predictor of future low disease activity in patients with early RA: results from the TEAR Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Rapidly predicting future outcomes based on short-term clinical response would be helpful to optimize rheumatoid arthritis (RA) management in early disease. Our aim was to derive and validate a clinical prediction rule to predict low disease activity (LDA) at 1 year among patients participating in the Treatment of Early Aggressive Rheumatoid Arthritis (TEAR) trial escalating RA therapy by adding either etanercept or sulfasalazine + hydroxychloroquine [triple therapy (TT)] after 6 months of methotrexate (MTX) therapy. METHODS: Eligible subjects included in the derivation cohort (used for model building, n = 186) were participants with moderate or higher disease activity [Disease Activity Score 28-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS-ESR) > 3.2] despite 24 weeks of MTX monotherapy who added either etanercept or sulfasalazine + hydroxychloroquine. Clinical characteristics measured within the next 12 weeks were used to predict LDA 1 year later using multivariable logistic regression. Validation was performed in the cohort of TEAR patients randomized to initially receive either MTX + etanercept or TT. RESULTS: The derivation cohort yielded 3 prediction models of varying complexity that included age, DAS28 at various timepoints, body mass index, and ESR (area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve up to 0.83). Accuracy of the prediction models ranged between 80% and 95% in both derivation and validation cohorts, depending on the complexity of the model and the cutpoints chosen for response and nonresponse. About 80% of patients could be predicted to be responders or nonresponders at Week 12. CONCLUSION: Clinical data collected early after starting or escalating disease-modifying antirheumatic drug/biologic treatment could accurately predict LDA at 1 year in patients with early RA. For patients predicted to be nonresponders, treatment could be changed at 12 weeks to optimize outcomes.

Sample size in obesity trials: patient perspective versus current practice.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate patient opinions on acceptable risks in exchange for a given degree of weight loss and their implications for sample size determination in obesity randomized clinical trials (RCTs). DESIGN: . Survey of patients entering RCTs for weight loss in a university-based clinical research setting and power calculations based on their responses. Participants. Men (n = 8) and women (n = 66) between 24 and 73 years of age with body mass indices ranging from 26.8 to 40.5 kg/m(2). Measurements. Survey responses to questions assessing the added risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) or death one is willing to assume for a given degree of weight loss. RESULTS: For 5% and 10% weight loss against risk for death per se, the mean acceptable risk tended to be about 3.5%, but the median (0.00) and mode (0.00) suggested that for most individuals, only a risk of < or = 1% would be acceptable. Figures, estimated dropout rates, and base rates of SAEs (including deaths) from recent obesity trials indicate that 1-year 2-group obesity RCTs would need tens of thousands of participants per group to have 80% power to detect risks that are meaningful to patients at the 2-tailed 0.05 alpha level. CONCLUSION: Patient education is needed to explain which risks are realistically detectable in RCTs so that patients may provide truly informed consent, or RCT standards should be modified to meet patients' implicit expectations.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Long-term effects of bereavement and caregiver intervention on dementia caregiver depressive symptoms.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the joint effects of bereavement and caregiver intervention on caregiver depressive symptoms. DESIGN AND METHODS: Alzheimer's caregivers from a randomized trial of an enhanced caregiver support intervention versus usual care who had experienced the death of their spouse (n = 254) were repeatedly assessed with the Geriatric Depression Scale prior to and following bereavement. Random effects regression growth curve analyses examined the effects of treatment group and bereavement while controlling for other variables. RESULTS: The death of the care recipient led to reductions in depressive symptoms for both caregiving groups. Enhanced support intervention led to lower depressive symptoms compared with controls both before and after bereavement. Post-bereavement group differences were stronger for caregivers of spouses who did not previously experience a nursing home placement. These caregivers maintained these differences for more than 1 year after bereavement. Caregivers who received the enhanced support intervention were more likely to show long-term patterns of fewer depressive symptoms before and after bereavement, suggesting resilience, whereas control caregivers were more likely to show chronic depressive symptoms before and after the death of their spouse. IMPLICATIONS: Caregiver intervention has the potential to alter the long-term course of the caregiving career. Such clinical strategies may also protect caregivers against chronic depressive symptoms that would otherwise persist long after caregiving ends.