Transmission dynamics of the 2016-18 outbreak of hepatitis A among men who have sex with men in England and cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination strategies to prevent future outbreaks.

Background: Despite being vaccine-preventable, hepatitis A virus (HAV) outbreaks occur among men who have sex with men (MSM). We modelled the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies to prevent future outbreaks. Methods: A HAV transmission model was calibrated to HAV outbreak data for MSM in England over 2016-2018, producing estimates for the basic reproduction number (R0) and immunity levels (seroprevalence) post-outbreak. For a hypothetical outbreak in 2023 (same R0 and evolving immunity), the cost-effectiveness of pre-emptive (vaccination between outbreaks among MSM attending sexual health services (SHS)) and reactive (vaccination during outbreak among MSM attending SHS and primary care) vaccination strategies were modelled. Effectiveness in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs were estimated (2017 UK pounds) from a societal perspective (10-year time horizon; 3% discount rate). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated. Findings: R0 for the 2016-2018 outbreak was 3·19 (95% credibility interval (95%CrI) 2·87-3·46); seroprevalence among MSM increased to 70·4% (95%CrI 67·3-72·8%) post-outbreak. For our hypothetical HAV outbreak in 2023, pre-emptively vaccinating MSM over the preceding five-years was cost-saving (compared to no vaccination) if the yearly vaccine coverage rate among MSM attending SHS was <9·1%. Reactive vaccination was also cost-saving compared to no vaccination, but was dominated by pre-emptive vaccination if the yearly vaccination rate was >8%. If the pre-emptive yearly vaccination rate fell below this threshold, it became cost-saving to add reactive vaccination to pre-emptive vaccination. Interpretation: Although highly transmissible, existing immunity limited the recent HAV outbreak among MSM in England. Pre-emptive vaccination between outbreaks, with reactive vaccination if indicated, is the best strategy for limiting future HAV outbreaks. Funding: NIHR.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children to contacts in schools and households: a prospective cohort and environmental sampling study in London.

BACKGROUND: Assessing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children in schools is of crucial importance to inform public health action. We assessed frequency of acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 by contacts of pupils with COVID-19 in schools and households, and quantified SARS-CoV-2 shedding into air and onto fomites in both settings. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort and environmental sampling study in London, UK in eight schools. Schools reporting new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection to local health protection teams were invited to take part if a child index case had been attending school in the 48 h before a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. At the time of the study, PCR testing was available to symptomatic individuals only. Children aged 2-14 years (extended to <18 years in November, 2020) with a new nose or throat swab SARS-CoV-2 positive PCR from an accredited laboratory were included. Incidents involving exposure to at least one index pupil with COVID-19 were identified (the prevailing variants were original, α, and δ). Weekly PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 was done on immediate classroom contacts (the so-called bubble), non-bubble school contacts, and household contacts of index pupils. Testing was supported by genome sequencing and on-surface and air samples from school and home environments. FINDINGS: Between October, 2020, and July, 2021 from the eight schools included, secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in 28 bubble contacts, representing ten bubble classes (participation rate 8·8% [IQR 4·6-15·3]). Across eight non-bubble classes, 3 (2%) of 62 pupils tested positive, but these were unrelated to the original index case (participation rate 22·5% [9·7-32·3]). All three were asymptomatic and tested positive in one setting on the same day. In contrast, secondary transmission to previously negative household contacts from infected index pupils was found in six (17%) of 35 household contacts rising to 13 (28%) of 47 household contacts when considering all potential infections in household contacts. Environmental contamination with SARS-CoV-2 was rare in schools: fomite SARS-CoV-2 was identified in four (2%) of 189 samples in bubble classrooms, two (2%) of 127 samples in non-bubble classrooms, and five (4%) of 130 samples in washrooms. This contrasted with fomites in households, where SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 60 (24%) of 248 bedroom samples, 66 (27%) of 241 communal room samples, and 21 (11%) 188 bathroom samples. Air sampling identified SARS-CoV-2 RNA in just one (2%) of 68 of school air samples, compared with 21 (25%) of 85 air samples taken in homes. INTERPRETATION: There was no evidence of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools with precautions in place. Low levels of environmental contamination in schools are consistent with low transmission frequency and suggest adequate cleaning and ventilation in schools during the period of study. The high frequency of secondary transmission in households associated with evident viral shedding throughout the home suggests a need to improve advice to households with infection in children to prevent onward community spread. The data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 transmission from children in any setting is very likely to occur when precautions are reduced. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and UK Department of Health and Social Care, National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Increased measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake in the context of a targeted immunisation campaign during a measles outbreak in a vaccine-reluctant community in England.

BACKGROUND: Following a measles outbreak in a vaccine-rejecting community between April and September 2011 in South-East England, local health agencies implemented a two-pronged measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) immunisation campaign from August to October offered at the local general practice where most cases were registered. The campaign included (a) accelerated vaccination of children earlier than scheduled (1st dose at 6-11 months, or 2nd dose at 18-39 months), (b) catch-up of those aged over 18 months who had had no MMR immunisations or were late for second MMR. We investigated the impact of the outbreak and campaign on the number of MMR doses given. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In January 2012, we collected information on MMR vaccination for children registered at the practice aged 6 months-16 years on 1 August 2011, through the child health information system. We counted the number of MMR doses administered in 2011 and compared it to 2008-2010 data. We estimated the proportion vaccinated among the children eligible for the accelerated and catch-up campaign. RESULTS: The local practice administered 257 MMR doses in 2011, a 114% increase on the average for 2008-2010. Among children eligible for earlier MMR vaccination 5/26 (19%) received a first dose, and 34/57 (60%) a second dose. Among children eligible for catch-up, 20/329 (6%) received their first MMR and 39/121 (32%) their second. Of 1538 children, the proportion completely unimmunised for MMR declined by 3 percentage-points after the outbreak. DISCUSSION: Uptake of MMR vaccination significantly increased during the outbreak following the immunisation campaign. Those amenable to MMR vaccination seem to have benefited from the campaign more than those with no previous vaccinations. Future evaluations should address what made a few parents change their mind and have their children vaccinated for the first time during the outbreak.

Characteristics of 5-year-olds who catch-up with MMR: findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors of partial and full measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination catch-up between 3 and 5 years. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of the nationally representative Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). SETTING: Children born in the UK, 2000-2002. PARTICIPANTS: 751 MCS children who were unimmunised against MMR at age 3, with immunisation information at age 5. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Catch-up status: unimmunised (received no MMR), partial catch-up (received one MMR) or full catch-up (received two MMRs). RESULTS: At age 5, 60.3% (n=440) children remained unvaccinated, 16.1% (n=127) had partially and 23.6% (n=184) had fully caught-up. Children from families who did not speak English at home were five times as likely to partially catch-up than children living in homes where only English was spoken (risk ratio 4.68 (95% CI 3.63 to 6.03)). Full catch-up was also significantly more likely in those did not speak English at home (adjusted risk ratio 1.90 (1.08 to 3.32)). In addition, those from Pakistan/Bangladesh (2.40 (1.38 to 4.18)) or 'other' ethnicities (such as Chinese) (1.88 (1.08 to 3.29)) were more likely to fully catch-up than White British. Those living in socially rented (1.86 (1.34 to 2.56)) or 'Other' (2.52 (1.23 to 5.18)) accommodations were more likely to fully catch-up than home owners, and families were more likely to catch-up if they lived outside London (1.95 (1.32 to 2.89)). Full catch-up was less likely if parents reported medical reasons (0.43 (0.25 to 0.74)), a conscious decision (0.33 (0.23 to 0.48)), or 'other' reasons (0.46 (0.29 to 0.73)) for not immunising at age 3 (compared with 'practical' reasons). CONCLUSIONS: Parents who partially or fully catch-up with MMR experience practical barriers and tend to come from disadvantaged or ethnic minority groups. Families who continue to reject MMR tend to have more advantaged backgrounds and make a conscious decision to not immunise early on. Health professionals should consider these findings in light of the characteristics of their local populations.