Water quality trading opportunities in two sub-watersheds in the northern Lake Okeechobee watershed.

For decades, the increase of nutrient enrichment has threatened the ecological integrity and economic sustainability of many rivers, lakes, and coastal waters, including Lake Okeechobee, the second largest freshwater lake in the contiguous United States. Water quality trading programs have been an area of active development to both, reduce nutrient pollution and minimize abatement costs. The objective of this study was to apply a comprehensive modeling framework, integrating a hydrologic-water quality model with an economic model, to assess and compare the cost-effectiveness of a water quality trading program over a command-and-control approach in order to reduce phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee. The Upper Kissimmee (UK) and Taylor Creek/Nubbin Slough (TCNS) sub-watersheds, identified as major sources of total phosphorus (TP) loadings to the lake, were selected for this analysis. The effect of different caps on the market potential was assessed while considering four factors: the least-cost abatement solutions, credit prices, potential cost savings, and credit supply and demand. Hypothetical trading scenarios were also developed, using the optimal caps selected for the two sub-watersheds. In both sub-watersheds, a phosphorus credit trading program was less expensive than the conventional command-and-control approach. While attaining cost-effectiveness, keeping optimal credit prices, and fostering market competition, phosphorus reduction targets of 46% and 32% were selected as the most appropriate caps in the UK and TCNS sub-watersheds, respectively. Wastewater treatment facilities and urban areas in the UK, and concentrated animal feeding operations in the TCNS sub-watershed were identified as potential credit buyers, whereas improved pastures were identified as the major credit sellers in both sub-watersheds. The estimated net cost savings resulting from implementing a phosphorus trading program in the UK and TCNS sub-watersheds were 76% ($ 34.9 million per year) and 45% ($ 3.2 million per year), respectively. It is important to note that the realization of the environmental and economic benefits of this market-based alternative is also contingent on other important factors, such as the market structure, the specific program rules, the risk perception, and the education and outreach to develop trusted relationships among regulatory agencies, the public sector, and other stakeholders. Nevertheless, this research provided the foundation for stakeholders to better understand whether water quality trading has the potential to work in the Lake Okeechobee watershed and to facilitate the development of a pilot program.

Developing Benthic Class Specific, Chlorophyll-a Retrieving Algorithms for Optically-Shallow Water Using SeaWiFS.

This study evaluated the ability to improve Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) chl-a retrieval from optically shallow coastal waters by applying algorithms specific to the pixels' benthic class. The form of the Ocean Color (OC) algorithm was assumed for this study. The operational atmospheric correction producing Level 2 SeaWiFS data was retained since the focus of this study was on establishing the benefit from the alternative specification of the bio-optical algorithm. Benthic class was determined through satellite image-based classification methods. Accuracy of the chl-a algorithms evaluated was determined through comparison with coincident in situ measurements of chl-a. The regionally-tuned models that were allowed to vary by benthic class produced more accurate estimates of chl-a than the single, unified regionally-tuned model. Mean absolute percent difference was approximately 70% for the regionally-tuned, benthic class-specific algorithms. Evaluation of the residuals indicated the potential for further improvement to chl-a estimation through finer characterization of benthic environments. Atmospheric correction procedures specialized to coastal environments were recognized as areas for future improvement as these procedures would improve both classification and algorithm tuning.

Modeling a phosphorus credit trading program in an agricultural watershed.

Water quality and economic models were linked to assess the economic and environmental benefits of implementing a phosphorus credit trading program in an agricultural sub-basin of Lake Okeechobee watershed, Florida, United States. The water quality model determined the effects of rainfall, land use type, and agricultural management practices on the amount of total phosphorus (TP) discharged. TP loadings generated at the farm level, reaching the nearby streams, and attenuated to the sub-basin outlet from all sources within the sub-basin, were estimated at 106.4, 91, and 85 mtons yr(-)(1), respectively. Almost 95% of the TP loadings reaching the nearby streams were attributed to agriculture sources, and only 1.2% originated from urban areas, accounting for a combined TP load of 87.9 mtons yr(-)(1). In order to compare a Least-Cost Abatement approach to a Command-and-Control approach, the most cost effective cap of 30% TP reduction was selected, and the individual allocation was set at a TP load target of 1.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (at the nearby stream level). The Least-Cost Abatement approach generated a potential cost savings of 27% ($1.3 million per year), based on an optimal credit price of $179. Dairies (major buyer), ornamentals, row crops, and sod farms were identified as potential credit buyers, whereas citrus, improved pastures (major seller), and urban areas were identified as potential credit sellers. Almost 81% of the TP credits available for trading were exchanged. The methodology presented here can be adapted to deal with different forms of trading sources, contaminants, or other technologies and management practices.

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12-114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower-a primary focus of previous studies-significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19.

Background: A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. Betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV are not thought to be seasonal. Methods: We examined climate data from cities with significant community spread of COVID-19 using ERA-5 reanalysis, and compared to areas that are either not affected, or do not have significant community spread. Results: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50° N' corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11°C, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. Conclusions and Relevance: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Importance: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. Objective: To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. Results: The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80 757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

Future changes in the trading of virtual water.

Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions-NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries' Energy-Water-Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries' strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as "Nexus Approach") in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development.

Temporal dynamics of stem expansion and contraction in savanna trees: withdrawal and recharge of stored water.

Relationships between diel changes in stem expansion and contraction and discharge and refilling of stem water storage tissues were studied in six dominant Neotropical savanna (cerrado) tree species from central Brazil. Two stem tissues were studied, the active xylem or sapwood and the living tissues located between the cambium and the cork, made up predominantly of parenchyma cells (outer parenchyma). Outer parenchyma and sapwood density ranged from 320 to 410 kg m(-3) and from 420 to 620 kg m(-3), respectively, depending on the species. The denser sapwood tissues exhibited smaller relative changes in cross-sectional area per unit change in water potential compared with the outer parenchyma. Despite undergoing smaller relative changes in cross-sectional area, the sapwood released about 3.5 times as much stored water for a given change in area as the outer parenchyma. Cross-sectional area decreased earlier in the morning in the outer parenchyma than in the sapwood with lag times up to 30 min for most species. The relatively small lag time between dimensional changes of the two tissues suggested that they were hydraulically well connected. The initial morning increase in basal sap flow lagged about 10 to 130 min behind that of branch sap flow. Species-specific lag times between morning declines in branch and main stem cross-sectional area were a function of relative stem water storage capacity, which ranged from 16 to 31% of total diurnal water loss. Reliance on stored water to temporarily replace transpirational losses is one of the homeostatic mechanisms that constrain the magnitude of leaf water deficits in cerrado trees.

Removal of nutrient limitations by long-term fertilization decreases nocturnal water loss in savanna trees.

Under certain environmental conditions, nocturnal transpiration can be relatively high in temperate and tropical woody species. We have previously shown that nocturnal sap flow accounts for up to 28% of total daily transpiration in woody species growing in a nutrient-poor Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem. In the present study, we assessed the effect of increased nutrient supply on nocturnal transpiration in three dominant Cerrado tree species to explore the hypothesis that, in nutrient-poor systems, continued transpiration at night may enhance delivery of nutrients to root-absorbing surfaces. We compared nocturnal transpiration of trees growing in unfertilized plots and plots to which nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) had been added twice yearly from 1998 to 2005. Three independent indicators of nocturnal transpiration were evaluated: sap flow in terminal branches, stomatal conductance (g(s)), and disequilibrium in water potential between covered and exposed leaves (DeltaPsi(L)). In the unfertilized trees, about 25% of the total daily sap flow occurred at night. Nocturnal sap flow was consistently lower in the N- and P-fertilized trees, significantly so in trees in the N treatment. Similarly, nocturnal g(s) was consistently lower in fertilized trees than in unfertilized trees where it sometimes reached values of 150 mmol m(-2) s(-1) by the end of the dark period. Predawn gs and the percentage of nocturnal sap flow were linearly related. Nocturnal DeltaPsi(L) was significantly greater in the unfertilized trees than in N- and P-fertilized trees. The absolute magnitude of DeltaPsi(L) increased linearly with the percentage of nocturnal sap flow. These results are consistent with the idea that enhancing nutrient uptake by allowing additional transpiration to occur at night when evaporative demand is lower may avoid excessive dehydration associated with increased stomatal opening during the day when evaporative demand is high.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems.

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as UN population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

Modeling the impact of restoration efforts on phosphorus loading and transport through Everglades National Park, FL, USA.

Ecosystems of Florida Everglades are highly sensitive to phosphorus loading. Future restoration efforts, which focus on restoring Everglades water flows, may pose a threat to the health of these ecosystems. To determine the fate and transport of total phosphorus and evaluate proposed Everglades restoration, a water quality model has been developed using the hydrodynamic results from the M3ENP (Mike Marsh Model of Everglades National Park)--a physically-based hydrological numerical model which uses MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software. Using advection-dispersion with reactive transport for the model, parameters were optimized and phosphorus loading in the overland water column was modeled with good accuracy (60%). The calibrated M3ENP-AD model was then modified to include future bridge construction and canal water level changes, which have shown to increase flows into ENP. These bridge additions increased total dissolved phosphorus (TP) load downstream in Shark Slough and decreased TP load in downstream Taylor Slough. However, there was a general decrease in TP concentration and TP mass per area over the entire model domain. The M3ENP-AD model has determined the mechanisms for TP transport and quantified the impacts of ENP restoration efforts on the spatial-temporal distribution of phosphorus transport. This tool can be used to guide future Everglades restoration decisions.

Evaluation of nanoscale zerovalent iron particles for trichloroethene degradation in clayey soils.

The longevity and reactivity of nanoscale zerovalent iron (nZVI) and palladized bimetallic particles (BNP) were evaluated in batch and column experiments for remediation of a trichloroethene (TCE)-contaminated plume within a clayey soil from Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Comparative studies assessing the viability of BNP and nZVI confirmed that particle behavior is severely affected by clay sediments. Surface morphology and composition analyses using SEM and SEM-energy-dispersive spectroscopy spectrum revealed particle agglomeration through the formation of clay-iron aggregates of greater mass during the early phase of the experiment. Batch study results suggest that TCE degradation in ORR clayey soil follows a pseudo-first-order kinetic model exhibiting reaction rate constants (k) of 0.05-0.24 day(-1) at varied iron-to-soil ratios. Despite high reactivity in water, BNP were less effective in the site-derived clay sediment with calculated TCE removal efficiencies of 98.7% and 19.59%, respectively. A column experiment was conducted to investigate particle longevity and indicator parameters of the TCE degradation process under flow conditions. It revealed that the TCE removal efficiency gradually declined over the course of the experiment from 86-93% to 51-52%, correlating to a progressive increase in oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) from -485 to -250 mV and pH drop from 8.2-8.6 to 7.4-7.5. The rate of nZVI deactivation reaction was found to be a first order with a k(d) value of 0.0058 day(-1). SEM images of residual nZVI revealed heavily agglomerated particles. However, despite widespread oxidation and agglomeration, particles managed to maintain some capacity for oxidation. A quantitative analysis of nZVI deactivation has the potential of predicting nZVI longevity in order to improve the design strategy of TCE remediation.

Biophysical properties and functional significance of stem water storage tissues in Neotropical savanna trees.

Biophysical characteristics of sapwood and outer parenchyma water storage compartments were studied in stems of eight dominant Brazilian Cerrado tree species to assess the impact of differences in tissue capacitance on whole-plant water relations. The rate of decline in tissue water potential with relative water content (RWC) was greater in the outer parenchyma than in the sapwood for most of the species, resulting in tissue-and species-specific differences in capacitance. Sapwood capacitance on a tissue volume basis ranged from 40 to 160 kg m-3 MPa-1, whereas outer parenchyma capacitance ranged from 25 to only 60 kg m-3 MPa-1. In addition, osmotic potentials at full turgor and at the turgor loss point were more negative for the outer parenchyma compared with the sapwood, and the maximum bulk elastic modulus was higher for the outer parenchyma than for the sapwood. Sapwood capacitance decreased linearly with increasing sapwood density across species, but there was no significant correlation between outer parenchyma capacitance and tissue density. Midday leaf water potential, the total hydraulic conductance of the soil/leaf pathway and stomatal conductance to water vapour (gs) all increased with stem volumetric capacitance, or with the relative contribution of stored water to total daily transpiration. However, the difference between the pre-dawn water potential of non-transpiring leaves and the weighted average soil water potential, a measure of the water potential disequilibrium between the plant and soil, increased asymptotically with total stem capacitance across species, implying that overnight recharge of water storage compartments was incomplete in species with greater capacitance. Overall, stem capacitance contributes to homeostasis in the diurnal and seasonal water balance of Cerrado trees.

Nutrient availability constrains the hydraulic architecture and water relations of savannah trees.

Leaf and whole plant-level functional traits were studied in five dominant woody savannah species from Central Brazil (Cerrado) to determine whether reduction of nutrient limitations in oligotrophic Cerrado soils affects carbon allocation, water relations and hydraulic architecture. Four treatments were used: control, N additions, P additions and N plus P additions. Fertilizers were applied twice yearly, from October 1998 to March 2004. Sixty-three months after the first nutrient addition, the total leaf area increment was significantly greater across all species in the N- and the N + P-fertilized plots than in the control and in the P-fertilized plots. Nitrogen fertilization significantly altered several components of hydraulic architecture: specific conductivity of terminal stems increased with N additions, whereas leaf-specific conductivity and wood density decreased in most cases. Average daily sap flow per individual was consistently higher with N and N + P additions compared to the control, but its relative increase was not as great as that of leaf area. Long-term additions of N and N + P caused midday PsiL to decline significantly by a mean of 0.6 MPa across all species because N-induced relative reductions in soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance were greater than those of stomatal conductance and transpiration on a leaf area basis. Phosphorus-fertilized trees did not exhibit significant changes in midday PsiL. Analysis of xylem vulnerability curves indicated that N-fertilized trees were significantly less vulnerable to embolism than trees in control and P-fertilized plots. Thus, N-induced decreases in midday PsiL appeared to be almost entirely compensated by increases in resistance to embolism. Leaf tissue water relations characteristics also changed as a result of N-induced declines in minimum PsiL: osmotic potential at full turgor decreased and symplastic solute content on a dry matter basis increased linearly with declining midday PsiL across species and treatments. Despite being adapted to chronic nutrient limitations, Cerrado woody species apparently have the capacity to exploit increases in nutrient availability by allocating resources to maximize carbon gain and enhance growth. The cost of increased allocation to leaf area relative to water transport capacity involved increased total water loss per plant and a decrease in minimum leaf water potentials. However, the risk of increased embolism and turgor loss was relatively low as xylem vulnerability to embolism and leaf osmotic characteristics changed in parallel with changes in plant water status induced by N fertilization.