New dimensions for hospital services and early detection of disease: a Review from the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

Cost and clinical effectiveness of MRI in occult scaphoid fractures: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical and radiographic diagnoses of scaphoid fractures are often challenging at the time of injury. Patients are therefore usually reassessed which has cost implications. Various investigations exist but MRI has been suggested as effective in diagnosing these injuries early. AIM: To determine whether early MRI in suspected occult scaphoid fractures is more clinically and cost effective than conventional management with immobilisation and reassessment. METHODS: All patients presenting to the Emergency Department at a district general hospital with a suspected occult scaphoid fracture were randomised into two groups, MRI (early scan of the wrist, discharged if no injury) and control (reassessment in clinic). RESULTS: 84 patients were randomised into MRI (45) and control (39) groups. There were no baseline differences apart from greater dominant hand injuries in the MRI group (62% (26) vs 36% (14), p=0.02). There were three (6.7%) scaphoid fractures in the MRI group and four (10.3%) in the control group (p=0.7). More fractures (15.6% (7) vs 5.1% (2), p=0.9) and other injuries were detected in the MRI group who had fewer mean clinic appointments (1.1 ± 0.5 vs 2.3 ± 0.8, p=0.001) and radiographs (1.2 ± 0.8 vs 1.7 ± 1.1, p=0.03). Mean management costs were £504.13 (MRI) and £532.87 (control) (p=0.9). The MRI group had better pain and satisfaction scores (not significant) with comparable time off work and sporting activities. CONCLUSION: Early MRI in occult scaphoid fractures is marginally cost saving compared with conventional management and may reduce potentially large societal costs of unnecessary immobilisation. It enables early detection and appropriate treatment of scaphoid and other injuries.

The Long-Term Cost to the UK NHS and Social Services of Different Durations of IV Thiamine (Vitamin B1) for Chronic Alcohol Misusers with Symptoms of Wernicke's Encephalopathy Presenting at the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: Wernicke's encephalopathy (WE) is an acute neuropsychiatric condition caused by depleted intracellular thiamine, most commonly arising in chronic alcohol misusers, who may present to emergency departments (EDs) for a variety of reasons. Guidelines recommend a minimum 5-day course of intravenous (IV) thiamine in at-risk patients unless WE can be excluded. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost impact on the UK public sector (NHS and social services) of a 5-day course of IV thiamine, vs a 2- and 10-day course, in harmful or dependent drinkers presenting to EDs. METHODS: A Markov chain model compared expected prognosis of patients under alternative admission strategies over 35 years. Model inputs were derived from a prospective cohort study, expert opinion via structured elicitation and NHS costing databases. Costs (2012/2013 price year) were discounted at 3.5 %. RESULTS: Increasing treatment from 2 to 5 days increased acute care costs but reduced the probability of disease progression and thus reduced the expected net costs by GBP87,000 per patient (95 % confidence interval GBP19,300 to GBP172,300) over 35 years. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing length of stay to optimize IV thiamine replacement will place additional strain on acute care but has potential UK public sector cost savings. Social services and the NHS should explore collaborations to realise both the health benefits to patients and savings to the public purse.