Strategies to investigate and mitigate collider bias in genetic and Mendelian randomisation studies of disease progression.

Genetic studies of disease progression can be used to identify factors that may influence survival or prognosis, which may differ from factors that influence on disease susceptibility. Studies of disease progression feed directly into therapeutics for disease, whereas studies of incidence inform prevention strategies. However, studies of disease progression are known to be affected by collider (also known as "index event") bias since the disease progression phenotype can only be observed for individuals who have the disease. This applies equally to observational and genetic studies, including genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. In this paper, our aim is to review several statistical methods that can be used to detect and adjust for index event bias in studies of disease progression, and how they apply to genetic and MR studies using both individual- and summary-level data. Methods to detect the presence of index event bias include the use of negative controls, a comparison of associations between risk factors for incidence in individuals with and without the disease, and an inspection of Miami plots. Methods to adjust for the bias include inverse probability weighting (with individual-level data), or Slope-Hunter and Dudbridge et al.'s index event bias adjustment (when only summary-level data are available). We also outline two approaches for sensitivity analysis. We then illustrate how three methods to minimise bias can be used in practice with two applied examples. Our first example investigates the effects of blood lipid traits on mortality from coronary heart disease, while our second example investigates genetic associations with breast cancer mortality.

A genome-wide association study of neutrophil count in individuals associated to an African continental ancestry group facilitates studies of malaria pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND: 'Benign ethnic neutropenia' (BEN) is a heritable condition characterized by lower neutrophil counts, predominantly observed in individuals of African ancestry, and the genetic basis of BEN remains a subject of extensive research. In this study, we aimed to dissect the genetic architecture underlying neutrophil count variation through a linear-mixed model genome-wide association study (GWAS) in a population of African ancestry (N = 5976). Malaria caused by P. falciparum imposes a tremendous public health burden on people living in sub-Saharan Africa. Individuals living in malaria endemic regions often have a reduced circulating neutrophil count due to BEN, raising the possibility that reduced neutrophil counts modulate severity of malaria in susceptible populations. As a follow-up, we tested this hypothesis by conducting a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of neutrophil counts on severe malaria (MalariaGEN, N = 17,056). RESULTS: We carried out a GWAS of neutrophil count in individuals associated to an African continental ancestry group within UK Biobank, identifying 73 loci (r2 = 0.1) and 10 index SNPs (GCTA-COJO loci) associated with neutrophil count, including previously unknown rare loci regulating neutrophil count in a non-European population. BOLT-LMM was reliable when conducted in a non-European population, and additional covariates added to the model did not largely alter the results of the top loci or index SNPs. The two-sample bi-directional MR analysis between neutrophil count and severe malaria showed the greatest evidence for an effect between neutrophil count and severe anaemia, although the confidence intervals crossed the null. CONCLUSION: Our GWAS of neutrophil count revealed unique loci present in individuals of African ancestry. We note that a small sample-size reduced our power to identify variants with low allele frequencies and/or low effect sizes in our GWAS. Our work highlights the need for conducting large-scale biobank studies in Africa and for further exploring the link between neutrophils and severe malaria.

Circulating white blood cell traits and colorectal cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation study.

Observational studies have suggested a protective role for eosinophils in colorectal cancer (CRC) development and implicated neutrophils, but the causal relationships remain unclear. Here, we aimed to estimate the causal effect of circulating white blood cell (WBC) counts (N = ~550 000) for basophils, eosinophils, monocytes, lymphocytes and neutrophils on CRC risk (N = 52 775 cases and 45 940 controls) using Mendelian randomisation (MR). For comparison, we also examined this relationship using individual-level data from UK Biobank (4043 incident CRC cases and 332 773 controls) in a longitudinal cohort analysis. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR analysis suggested a protective effect of increased basophil count and eosinophil count on CRC risk [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.78-0.99, P = .04; OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.98, P = .01]. The protective effect of eosinophils remained [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.97, P = .01] following adjustments for all other WBC subtypes, to account for genetic correlation between the traits, using multivariable MR. A protective effect of increased lymphocyte count on CRC risk was also found [OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.93, P = 6.70e-4] following adjustment. Consistent with MR results, a protective effect for eosinophils in the cohort analysis in the fully adjusted model [RR per 1-SD increase: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .02] and following adjustment for the other WBC subtypes [RR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .001] was observed. Our study implicates peripheral blood immune cells, in particular eosinophils and lymphocytes, in CRC development, highlighting a need for mechanistic studies to interrogate these relationships.

Integrative multiomics analysis highlights immune-cell regulatory mechanisms and shared genetic architecture for 14 immune-associated diseases and cancer outcomes.

Developing functional insight into the causal molecular drivers of immunological disease is a critical challenge in genomic medicine. Here, we systematically apply Mendelian randomization (MR), genetic colocalization, immune-cell-type enrichment, and phenome-wide association methods to investigate the effects of genetically predicted gene expression on ten immune-associated diseases and four cancer outcomes. Using whole blood-derived estimates for regulatory variants from the eQTLGen consortium (n = 31,684), we constructed genetic risk scores for 10,104 genes. Applying the inverse-variance-weighted MR method transcriptome wide while accounting for linkage disequilibrium structure identified 664 unique genes with evidence of a genetically predicted effect on at least one disease outcome (p < 4.81 × 10-5). We next undertook genetic colocalization to investigate cell-type-specific effects at these loci by using gene expression data derived from 18 types of immune cells. This highlighted many cell-type-dependent effects, such as PRKCQ expression and asthma risk (posterior probability = 0.998), which was T cell specific. Phenome-wide analyses on 311 complex traits and endpoints allowed us to explore shared genetic architecture and prioritize key drivers of disease risk, such as CASP10, which provided evidence of an effect on seven cancer-related outcomes. Our atlas of results can be used to characterize known and novel loci in immune-associated disease and cancer susceptibility, both in terms of elucidating cell-type-dependent effects as well as dissecting shared disease pathways and pervasive pleiotropy. As an exemplar, we have highlighted several key findings in this study, although similar evaluations can be conducted via our interactive web platform.

Peripheral blood cellular immunophenotype in depression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Meta-analyses implicate immune dysfunction in depression confirming increased levels of circulating immune proteins (e.g., cytokines) in depression cases compared to controls. White blood cells (WBC) both produce and are influenced by cytokines, and play key roles in orchestrating innate and adaptive immune responses, but their role in depression remains unclear. Therefore, a systematic review of studies of various WBC subsets in depression is required for a greater understanding of the nature of immune dysfunction in this illness. METHODS: We searched PubMed and PsycINFO databases (inception to 5th April 2022) and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of identified studies comparing absolute count and/or relative percentage of flow cytometry-derived WBC subsets between depression cases and controls. Selected studies were quality assessed. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed. RESULTS: Thirty-three studies were included and 27 studies (n = 2277) were meta-analysed. We report an increase in mean absolute counts of WBC (seven studies; standardised mean difference [SMD] = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.61-1.53; P < 0.01; I2 = 64%), granulocytes (two studies; SMD = 2.07; 95% CI, 1.45-2.68; P < 0.01; I2 = 0%), neutrophils (four studies; SMD = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.23-1.58; P < 0.01; I2 = 82%), monocytes (seven studies; SMD = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.19-1.01; P < 0.01; I2 = 66%), CD4+ helper T cells (11 studies; SMD = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.15-0.45; P < 0.01; I2 = 0%), natural killer cells (11 studies; SMD = 1.23; 95% CI, 0.38-2.08; P < 0.01; I2 = 95%), B cells (10 studies; SMD = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.03-0.57; P = 0.03; I2 = 56%), and activated T cells (eight studies; SMD = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.24-0.66; P < 0.01; I2 = 0%) in depression, compared to controls. Fewer studies reported relative percentage, indicating increased neutrophils and decreased total lymphocytes, Th1, and Th2 cells in depression. CONCLUSIONS: Depression is characterised by widespread alterations in circulating myeloid and lymphoid cells, consistent with dysfunction in both innate and adaptive immunity. Immune cells could be useful biomarkers for illness subtyping and patient stratification in future immunotherapy trials of depression, along with cytokines, other biomarkers, and clinical measures.

Therapeutic potential of IL6R blockade for the treatment of sepsis and sepsis-related death: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is characterised by dysregulated, life-threatening immune responses, which are thought to be driven by cytokines such as interleukin 6 (IL-6). Genetic variants in IL6R known to down-regulate IL-6 signalling are associated with improved Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, a finding later confirmed in randomised trials of IL-6 receptor antagonists (IL6RAs). We hypothesised that blockade of IL6R could also improve outcomes in sepsis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in and near IL6R to evaluate the likely causal effects of IL6R blockade on sepsis (primary outcome), sepsis severity, other infections, and COVID-19 (secondary outcomes). We weighted SNPs by their effect on CRP and combined results across them in inverse variance weighted meta-analysis, proxying the effect of IL6RA. Our outcomes were measured in UK Biobank, FinnGen, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI), and the GenOSept and GainS consortium. We performed several sensitivity analyses to test assumptions of our methods, including utilising variants around CRP and gp130 in a similar analysis. In the UK Biobank cohort (N = 486,484, including 11,643 with sepsis), IL6R blockade was associated with a decreased risk of our primary outcome, sepsis (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.96, per unit of natural log-transformed CRP decrease). The size of this effect increased with severity, with larger effects on 28-day sepsis mortality (OR = 0.74; 95% CI 0.47 to 1.15); critical care admission with sepsis (OR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.78) and critical care death with sepsis (OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.98). Similar associations were seen with severe respiratory infection: OR for pneumonia in critical care 0.69 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.97) and for sepsis survival in critical care (OR = 0.22; 95% CI 0.04 to 1.31) in the GainS and GenOSept consortium, although this result had a large degree of imprecision. We also confirm the previously reported protective effect of IL6R blockade on severe COVID-19 (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84) in the COVID-19 HGI, which was of similar magnitude to that seen in sepsis. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our primary results. These results are subject to the limitations and assumptions of MR, which in this case reflects interpretation of these SNP effects as causally acting through blockade of IL6R, and reflect lifetime exposure to IL6R blockade, rather than the effect of therapeutic IL6R blockade. CONCLUSIONS: IL6R blockade is causally associated with reduced incidence of sepsis. Similar but imprecisely estimated results supported a causal effect also on sepsis related mortality and critical care admission with sepsis. These effects are comparable in size to the effect seen in severe COVID-19, where IL-6 receptor antagonists were shown to improve survival. These data suggest that a randomised trial of IL-6 receptor antagonists in sepsis should be considered.

Phenotypic associations with the HMOX1 GT(n) repeat in European populations.

HO-1 is a key enzyme in the management of heme in humans. A GT(n) repeat length in the gene HMOX1, has previously been widely associated with a variety of phenotypes, including susceptibility and outcomes in diabetes, cancer, infections, and neonatal jaundice. However, studies are generally small and results inconsistent. In this study, we imputed the GT(n) repeat length in two European cohorts (UK Biobank, UK, n = 463,005, recruited 2006-onwards; and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, ALSPAC, UK, n = 937, recruited 1990 onwards), with the reliability of imputation tested in other cohorts (1000 Genomes, Human Genome Diversity Project and UK-Personal Genome Project). Subsequently, we measured the relationship between repeat length and previously identified associations (diabetes, COPD, pneumonia and infection related mortality in UK Biobank; neonatal jaundice in ALSPAC) and performed a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in UK Biobank. Despite high quality imputation (correlation between true repeat length and imputed repeat length >0.9 in test cohorts), clinical associations were not identified in either the PheWAS or specific association studies. These findings are robust to definitions of repeat length and sensitivity analyses. Despite multiple smaller studies identifying associations across a variety of clinical settings; we could not replicate or identify any relevant phenotypic associations with the HMOX1 GT(n) repeat.

Genome-wide Association Study for Vitamin D Levels Reveals 69 Independent Loci.

We aimed to increase our understanding of the genetic determinants of vitamin D levels by undertaking a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) of serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD). To do so, we used imputed genotypes from 401,460 white British UK Biobank participants with available 25OHD levels, retaining single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with minor allele frequency (MAF) > 0.1% and imputation quality score > 0.3. We performed a linear mixed model GWAS on standardized log-transformed 25OHD, adjusting for age, sex, season of measurement, and vitamin D supplementation. These results were combined with those from a previous GWAS including 42,274 Europeans. In silico functional follow-up of the GWAS results was undertaken to identify enrichment in gene sets, pathways, and expression in tissues, and to investigate the partitioned heritability of 25OHD and its shared heritability with other traits. Using this approach, the SNP heritability of 25OHD was estimated to 16.1%. 138 conditionally independent SNPs were detected (p value < 6.6 × 10-9) among which 53 had MAF < 5%. Single variant association signals mapped to 69 distinct loci, among which 63 were previously unreported. We identified enrichment in hepatic and lipid metabolism gene pathways and enriched expression of the 25OHD genes in liver, skin, and gastrointestinal tissues. We observed partially shared heritability between 25OHD and socio-economic traits, a feature which may be mediated through time spent outdoors. Therefore, through a large 25OHD GWAS, we identified 63 loci that underline the contribution of genes outside the vitamin D canonical metabolic pathway to the genetic architecture of 25OHD.

A framework for research into continental ancestry groups of the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The UK Biobank is a large prospective cohort, based in the UK, that has deep phenotypic and genomic data on roughly a half a million individuals. Included in this resource are data on approximately 78,000 individuals with "non-white British ancestry." While most epidemiology studies have focused predominantly on populations of European ancestry, there is an opportunity to contribute to the study of health and disease for a broader segment of the population by making use of the UK Biobank's "non-white British ancestry" samples. Here, we present an empirical description of the continental ancestry and population structure among the individuals in this UK Biobank subset. RESULTS: Reference populations from the 1000 Genomes Project for Africa, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia were used to estimate ancestry for each individual. Those with at least 80% ancestry in one of these four continental ancestry groups were taken forward (N = 62,484). Principal component and K-means clustering analyses were used to identify and characterize population structure within each ancestry group. Of the approximately 78,000 individuals in the UK Biobank that are of "non-white British" ancestry, 50,685, 6653, 2782, and 2364 individuals were associated to the European, African, South Asian, and East Asian continental ancestry groups, respectively. Each continental ancestry group exhibits prominent population structure that is consistent with self-reported country of birth data and geography. CONCLUSIONS: Methods outlined here provide an avenue to leverage UK Biobank's deeply phenotyped data allowing researchers to maximize its potential in the study of health and disease in individuals of non-white British ancestry.

Little evidence for an effect of smoking on multiple sclerosis risk: A Mendelian Randomization study.

The causes of multiple sclerosis (MS) remain unknown. Smoking has been associated with MS in observational studies and is often thought of as an environmental risk factor. We used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine whether this association is causal using genetic variants identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) as associated with smoking. We assessed both smoking initiation and lifetime smoking behaviour (which captures smoking duration, heaviness, and cessation). There was very limited evidence for a meaningful effect of smoking on MS susceptibility as measured using summary statistics from the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium (IMSGC) meta-analysis, including 14,802 cases and 26,703 controls. There was no clear evidence for an effect of smoking on the risk of developing MS (smoking initiation: odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-1.61; lifetime smoking: OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.87-1.40). These findings suggest that smoking does not have a detrimental consequence on MS susceptibility. Further work is needed to determine the causal effect of smoking on MS progression.

HMOX1 STR polymorphism and malaria: an analysis of a large clinical dataset.

BACKGROUND: Inducible expression of heme oxygenase-1 (encoded by the gene HMOX1) may determine protection from heme released during malaria infections. A variable length, short tandem GT(n) repeat (STR) in HMOX1 that may influence gene expression has been associated with outcomes of human malaria in some studies. In this study, an analysis of the association between variation at the STR in HMOX1 on severe malaria and severe malaria subtypes is presented in a large, prospectively collected dataset (MalariaGEN). METHODS: The HMOX1 STR was imputed using a recently developed reference haplotype panel designed for STRs. The STR was classified by total length and split into three alleles based on an observed trimodal distribution of repeat lengths. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between this repeat on cases of severe malaria and severe malaria subtypes (cerebral malaria and severe malarial anaemia). Individual analyses were performed for each MalariaGEN collection site and combined for meta-analysis. One site (Kenya), had detailed clinical metadata, allowing the assessment of the effect of the STR on clinical variables (e.g. parasite count, platelet count) and regression analyses were performed to investigate whether the STR interacted with any clinical variables. RESULTS: Data from 17,960 participants across 11 collection sites were analysed. In logistic regression, there was no strong evidence of association between STR length and severe malaria (Odds Ratio, OR: 0.96, 95% confidence intervals 0.91-1.02 per ten GT(n) repeats), although there did appear to be an association at some sites (e.g., Kenya, OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99). There was no evidence of an interaction with any clinical variables. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis suggested that increasing HMOX1 STR length is unlikely to be reliably associated with severe malaria. It cannot be ruled out that repeat length may alter risk in specific populations, although whether this is due to chance variation, or true variation due to underlying biology (e.g., gene vs environment interaction) remains unanswered.

Correction: Vitamin D levels and risk of type 1 diabetes: A Mendelian randomization study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003536.].

Vitamin D levels and risk of type 1 diabetes: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with type 1 diabetes in observational studies, but evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is lacking. The aim of this study was to test whether genetically decreased vitamin D levels are causally associated with type 1 diabetes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS AND FINDINGS: For our two-sample MR study, we selected as instruments single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels in a large vitamin D genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 443,734 Europeans and obtained their corresponding effect estimates on type 1 diabetes risk from a large meta-analysis of 12 type 1 diabetes GWAS studies (Ntot = 24,063, 9,358 cases, and 15,705 controls). In addition to the main analysis using inverse variance weighted MR, we applied 3 additional methods to control for pleiotropy (MR-Egger, weighted median, and mode-based estimate) and compared the respective MR estimates. We also undertook sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs with potential pleiotropic effects. We identified 69 lead independent common SNPs to be genome-wide significant for 25OHD, explaining 3.1% of the variance in 25OHD levels. MR analyses suggested that a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in standardized natural log-transformed 25OHD (corresponding to a 29-nmol/l change in 25OHD levels in vitamin D-insufficient individuals) was not associated with an increase in type 1 diabetes risk (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.40, p = 0.48). We obtained similar results using the 3 pleiotropy robust MR methods and in sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs associated with serum lipid levels, body composition, blood traits, and type 2 diabetes. Our findings indicate that decreased vitamin D levels did not have a substantial impact on risk of type 1 diabetes in the populations studied. Study limitations include an inability to exclude the existence of smaller associations and a lack of evidence from non-European populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that 25OHD levels are unlikely to have a large effect on risk of type 1 diabetes, but larger MR studies or RCTs are needed to investigate small effects.

Longitudinal effects of ivacaftor and medicine possession ratio in people with the Gly551Asp mutation: a 5-year study.

INTRODUCTION: Ivacaftor was the first therapy licensed to address the underlying defect in cystic fibrosis (CF). The improvements in lung function, nutritional status and pulmonary exacerbations in patients carrying a Gly551Asp mutation were greater than previously seen in clinical trials for other therapies. Limited data are available regarding long-term outcomes and adherence to ivacaftor outside clinical trials. METHODS: We conducted a 5-year single-centre retrospective study of people with CF carrying the Gly551Asp mutation who received ivacaftor. Clinical outcome data were extracted from medical notes and databases. Drug delivery data were used to assess medicine possession ratio (MPR). RESULTS: 35 people were included. After commencing ivacaftor, FEV1 improved by 9.6% (SE±1.59%) predicted by 6 months. Thereafter, FEV1 declined, and at 5 years had returned to pre-ivacaftor baseline. Ivacaftor did not alter annual rate of FEV1 decline (1.57% pre vs 1.82% post, p=0.74). Body mass index (BMI) increased for 4 years. There was a significant reduction in inpatient and total intravenous antibiotic days sustained over 5 years. MPR remained high but declined over time (-2.5±0.9% per year, p=0.007). FEV1 was better maintained in patients with higher MPRs. CONCLUSION: The addition of ivacaftor provides acute benefits for people with the Gly551Asp mutation and established lung disease. We report a sustained reduction in intravenous antibiotic use but following acute improvement in lung function, decline continues, and patients will continue to require medical observation and optimisation. Strategies to maintain high adherence should be a priority to prolong the benefits of ivacaftor.

Childhood obesity and multiple sclerosis: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Higher childhood body mass index (BMI) has been associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether childhood BMI has a causal influence on MS, and whether this putative effect is independent from early adult obesity and pubertal timing. METHODS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary genetic data on 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. Large-scale genome-wide association studies provided estimates for BMI in childhood (n = 47,541) and adulthood (n = 322,154). In multivariable MR, we examined the direct effects of each timepoint and further adjusted for age at puberty. Findings were replicated using the UK Biobank (n = 453,169). RESULTS: Higher genetically predicted childhood BMI was associated with increased odds of MS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26/SD BMI increase, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.50). However, there was little evidence of a direct effect after adjusting for adult BMI (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.70-1.53). Conversely, the effect of adult BMI persisted independent of childhood BMI (OR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.01-2.03). The addition of age at puberty did not alter the findings. UK Biobank analyses showed consistent results. Sensitivity analyses provided no evidence of pleiotropy. CONCLUSION: Genetic evidence supports an association between childhood obesity and MS susceptibility, mediated by persistence of obesity into early adulthood but independent of pubertal timing.

The relative contributions of obesity, vitamin D, leptin, and adiponectin to multiple sclerosis risk: A Mendelian randomization mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which decreased vitamin D bioavailability and altered levels of adiponectin and leptin mediate the association between obesity and MS. METHODS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to estimate the effects on MS of body mass index (BMI), 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), adiponectin, and leptin levels in a cohort of 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. We then estimated the proportion of the effect of obesity on MS explained by these potential mediators. RESULTS: Genetic predisposition to higher BMI was associated with increased MS risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.33 per standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09-1.63), while higher 25OHD levels reduced odds of MS (OR = 0.72 per SD, 95% CI = 0.60-0.87). In contrast, we observed no effect of adiponectin or leptin. In MR mediation analysis, 5.2% of the association between BMI and MS was attributed to obesity lowering 25OHD levels (95% CI = 0.3%-31.0%). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that a minority of the increased risk of MS conferred by obesity is mediated by lowered vitamin D levels, while leptin and adiponectin had no effect. Consequently, vitamin D supplementation would only modestly reverse the effect of obesity on MS.

Legacy effects of nitrogen and phosphorus additions on vegetation and carbon stocks of upland heaths.

Soil carbon (C) pools and plant community composition are regulated by nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability. Atmospheric N deposition impacts ecosystem C storage, but the direction of response varies between systems. Phosphorus limitation may constrain C storage response to N, hence P application to increase plant productivity and thus C sequestration has been suggested. We revisited a 23-yr-old field experiment where N and P had been applied to upland heath, a widespread habitat supporting large soil C stocks. At 10 yr after the last nutrient application we quantified long-term changes in vegetation composition and in soil and vegetation C and P stocks. Nitrogen addition, particularly when combined with P, strongly influenced vegetation composition, favouring grasses over Calluna vulgaris, and led to a reduction in vegetation C stocks. However, soil C stocks did not respond to nutrient treatments. We found 40% of the added P had accumulated in the soil. This study showed persistent effects of N and N + P on vegetation composition, whereas effects of P alone were small and showed recovery. We found no indication that P application could mitigate the effects of N on vegetation or increase C sequestration in this system.

Tree planting in organic soils does not result in net carbon sequestration on decadal timescales.

Tree planting is increasingly being proposed as a strategy to combat climate change through carbon (C) sequestration in tree biomass. However, total ecosystem C storage that includes soil organic C (SOC) must be considered to determine whether planting trees for climate change mitigation results in increased C storage. We show that planting two native tree species (Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris), of widespread Eurasian distribution, onto heather (Calluna vulgaris) moorland with podzolic and peaty podzolic soils in Scotland, did not lead to an increase in net ecosystem C stock 12 or 39 years after planting. Plots with trees had greater soil respiration and lower SOC in organic soil horizons than heather control plots. The decline in SOC cancelled out the increment in C stocks in tree biomass on decadal timescales. At all four experimental sites sampled, there was no net gain in ecosystem C stocks 12-39 years after afforestation-indeed we found a net ecosystem C loss in one of four sites with deciduous B. pubescens stands; no net gain in ecosystem C at three sites planted with B. pubescens; and no net gain at additional stands of P. sylvestris. We hypothesize that altered mycorrhizal communities and autotrophic C inputs have led to positive 'priming' of soil organic matter, resulting in SOC loss, constraining the benefits of tree planting for ecosystem C sequestration. The results are of direct relevance to current policies, which promote tree planting on the assumption that this will increase net ecosystem C storage and contribute to climate change mitigation. Ecosystem-level biogeochemistry and C fluxes must be better quantified and understood before we can be assured that large-scale tree planting in regions with considerable pre-existing SOC stocks will have the intended policy and climate change mitigation outcomes.

Epidermal growth factor receptor: Structure-function informing the design of anticancer therapeutics.

Research on the epidermal growth factor (EGF) family and the family of receptors (EGFR) has progressed rapidly in recent times. New crystal structures of the ectodomains with different ligands, the activation of the kinase domain through oligomerisation and the use of fluorescence techniques have revealed profound conformational changes on ligand binding. The control of cell signaling from the EGFR-family is complex, with heterodimerisation, ligand affinity and signaling cross-talk influencing cellular outcomes. Analysis of tissue homeostasis indicates that the control of pro-ligand processing is likely to be as important as receptor activation events. Several members of the EGFR-family are overexpressed and/or mutated in cancer cells. The perturbation of EGFR-family signaling drives the malignant phenotype of many cancers and both inhibitors and antagonists of signaling from these receptors have already produced therapeutic benefits for patients. The design of affibodies, antibodies, small molecule inhibitors and even immunotherapeutic drugs targeting the EGFR-family has yielded promising new approaches to improving outcomes for cancer patients. In this review, we describe recent discoveries which have increased our understanding of the structure and dynamics of signaling from the EGFR-family, the roles of ligand processing and receptor cross-talk. We discuss the relevance of these studies to the development of strategies for designing more effective targeted treatments for cancer patients.

Nitrogen deposition drives loss of moss cover in alpine moss-sedge heath via lowered C : N ratio and accelerated decomposition.

In alpine ecosystems, nitrogen (N) deposition has been linked to plant community composition change, including loss of bryophytes and increase of graminoids. Since bryophyte growth is stimulated by increased N availability, it has been hypothesized that loss of bryophyte cover is driven by enhanced decomposition. As bryophyte mats are a significant carbon (C) store, their loss may impact C storage in these ecosystems. We used an N deposition gradient across 15 sites in the UK to examine effects of N deposition on bryophyte litter quality, decomposition and C and N stocks in Racomitrium moss-sedge heath. Increasing N deposition reduced C : N in bryophyte litter, which in turn enhanced decomposition. Soil N stocks increased significantly in response to increased N deposition, and soil C : N declined. However, depletion of the bryophyte mat and its replacement by graminoids under high N deposition was not associated with a change in total ecosystem C stocks. We conclude that decomposition processes in Racomitrium heath are very sensitive to N deposition and provide a mechanism by which N deposition drives depletion of the bryophyte mat. Nitrogen deposition did not measurably alter C stocks, but changes in soil N stocks and C : N suggest the ecosystem is becoming N saturated.