Polymyalgia rheumatica shows metabolomic alterations that are further altered by glucocorticoid treatment: Identification of metabolic correlates of fatigue.

OBJECTIVE: In polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR), glucocorticoids (GCs) relieve pain and stiffness, but fatigue may persist. We aimed to explore the effect of disease, GCs and PMR symptoms in the metabolite signatures of peripheral blood from patients with PMR or the related disease, giant cell arteritis (GCA). METHODS: Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy was performed on serum from 40 patients with untreated PMR, 84 with new-onset confirmed GCA, and 53 with suspected GCA who later were clinically confirmed non-GCA, and 39 age-matched controls. Further samples from PMR patients were taken one and six months into glucocorticoid therapy to explore relationship of metabolites to persistent fatigue. 100 metabolites were identified using Chenomx and statistical analysis performed in SIMCA-P to examine the relationship between metabolic profiles and, disease, GC treatment or symptoms. RESULTS: The metabolite signature of patients with PMR and GCA differed from that of age-matched non-inflammatory controls (R2 > 0.7). There was a smaller separation between patients with clinically confirmed GCA and those with suspected GCA who later were clinically confirmed non-GCA (R2 = 0.135). In PMR, metabolite signatures were further altered with glucocorticoid treatment (R2 = 0.42) but did not return to that seen in controls. Metabolites correlated with CRP, pain, stiffness, and fatigue (R2 ≥ 0.39). CRP, pain, and stiffness declined with treatment and were associated with 3-hydroxybutyrate and acetoacetate, but fatigue did not. Metabolites differentiated patients with high and low fatigue both before and after treatment (R2 > 0.9). Low serum glutamine was predictive of high fatigue at both time points (0.79-fold change). CONCLUSION: PMR and GCA alter the metabolite signature. In PMR, this is further altered by glucocorticoid therapy. Treatment-induced metabolite changes were linked to measures of inflammation (CRP, pain and stiffness), but not to fatigue. Furthermore, metabolite signatures distinguished patients with high or low fatigue.

A proteomics study of rheumatoid arthritis patients on etanercept identifies putative biomarkers associated with clinical outcome measures.

OBJECTIVES: Biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) are widely used in patients with RA, but response to bDMARDs is heterogeneous. The objective of this work was to identify pretreatment proteomic biomarkers associated with RA clinical outcome measures in patients starting bDMARDs. METHODS: Sequential window acquisition of all theoretical fragment ion spectra mass spectrometry (SWATH-MS) was used to generate spectral maps of sera from patients with RA before and after 3 months of treatment with the bDMARD etanercept. Protein levels were regressed against RA clinical outcome measures, i.e. 28-joint DAS (DAS28) and its subcomponents and DAS28 <2.6 (i.e. remission). The proteins with the strongest evidence for association were analysed in an independent, replication dataset. Finally, subnetwork analysis was carried out using the Disease Module Detection algorithm and biological plausibility of identified proteins was assessed by enrichment analysis. RESULTS: A total of 180 patients with RA were included in the discovery dataset and 58 in the validation dataset from a UK-based prospective multicentre study. Ten individual proteins were found to be significantly associated with RA clinical outcome measures. The association of T-complex protein 1 subunit η with DAS28 remission was replicated in an independent cohort. Subnetwork analysis of the 10 proteins from the regression analysis identified the ontological theme, with the strongest associations being with acute phase and acute inflammatory responses. CONCLUSION: This longitudinal study of 180 patients with RA commencing etanercept has identified several putative protein biomarkers of treatment response to this drug, one of which was replicated in an independent cohort.

Diagnostic delay is associated with uveitis and inflammatory bowel disease in AS: a study of extra-musculoskeletal manifestations in SpA.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prevalence of extra-musculoskeletal manifestations (EMM) and the association between diagnostic delay and their incidence in AS and PsA. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cohort study comprising two single centre cohorts in Europe and one multicentre cohort in Latin America (RESPONDIA). Crude prevalence of EMMs (uveitis, IBD and psoriasis) was calculated across geographic area and adjusted by direct standardization. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to assess the association between diagnostic delay and EMM incidence. RESULTS: Of 3553 patients, 2097 had AS and 1456 had PsA. The overall prevalence of uveitis was 22.9% (95% CI: 21.1, 24.8) in AS and 3.8% (95% CI: 2.9, 5.0) in PsA; 8.1% (95% CI: 7.0, 9.4) and 2.1% (1.3, 2.9), respectively, for IBD; and 11.0% (95% CI: 9.7, 12.4) and 94.6% (93.0, 95.9), respectively, for psoriasis. The EMM often presented before the arthritis (uveitis 45.1% and 33.3%, and IBD 37.4% and 70%, in AS and PsA, respectively). In the multivariable model, longer diagnostic delay (≥5 years) associated with more uveitis (hazard ratio [HR] 4.01; 95% CI: 3.23, 4.07) and IBD events (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.28, 2.67) in AS. Diagnostic delay was not significantly associated with uveitis (HR 1.57; 95% CI: 0.69, 3.59) or IBD events (HR 1.59; 95% CI: 0.39, 6.37) in PsA. CONCLUSION: EMMs are more prevalent in AS than PsA and often present before the onset of the articular disease. A longer diagnostic delay is associated with the 'de novo' appearance of uveitis and IBD in AS, highlighting the need to enhance diagnostic strategies to shorten the time from first symptom to diagnosis in SpA.

Pre-treatment calprotectin (MRP8/14) provides no added value to testing CRP alone in terms of predicting response to TNF inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis in a post hoc analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The inflammatory protein calprotectin (MRP8/14) has been identified as a promising biomarker of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our aim was to test MRP8/14 as a biomarker of response to tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitors in the largest RA cohort to date and to compare with C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Serum MRP8/14 was measured in 470 patients with RA about to commence treatment with adalimumab (n=196) or etanercept (n=274). Additionally, MRP8/14 was measured in the 3-month sera of 179 adalimumab-treated patients. Response was determined using European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria calculated using the traditional 4-component (4C) DAS28-CRP and alternate validated versions using 3-component (3C) and 2-component (2C), clinical disease activity index (CDAI) improvement criteria and change in individual outcome measures. Logistic/linear regression models were fitted for response outcome. RESULTS: In the 3C and 2C models, patients with RA were 1.92 (CI: 1.04 to 3.54) and 2.03 (CI: 1.09 to 3.78) times more likely to be classified as EULAR responders if they had high (75th quartile) pre-treatment levels of MRP8/14 compared with low (25th quartile). No significant associations were observed for the 4C model. When only using CRP as a predictor, in the 3C and 2C analyses, patients above the 75th quartile were 3.79 (CI: 1.81 to 7.93) and 3.58 (CI: 1.74 to 7.35) times more likely to be EULAR responders and addition of MRP8/14 did not significantly improve model fit (p values=0.62 and 0.80, respectively). No significant associations were observed in the 4C analysis. Exclusion of CRP from the outcome measure (CDAI) did not result in any significant associations with MRP8/14 (OR 1.00 (CI: 0.99 to 1.01), suggesting that the associations were due to the correlation with CRP and that there is no additional utility of MRP8/14 beyond use of CRP in patients with RA starting TNFi therapy. CONCLUSION: Beyond correlation with CRP, we found no evidence to suggest that MRP8/14 explains additional variability in response to TNFi in patients with RA over and above CRP alone.

Identification of new risk loci shared across systemic vasculitides points towards potential target genes for drug repurposing.

OBJECTIVES: The number of susceptibility loci currently associated with vasculitis is lower than in other immune-mediated diseases due in part to small cohort sizes, a consequence of the low prevalence of vasculitides. This study aimed to identify new genetic risk loci for the main systemic vasculitides through a comprehensive analysis of their genetic overlap. METHODS: Genome-wide data from 8467 patients with any of the main forms of vasculitis and 29 795 healthy controls were meta-analysed using ASSET. Pleiotropic variants were functionally annotated and linked to their target genes. Prioritised genes were queried in DrugBank to identify potentially repositionable drugs for the treatment of vasculitis. RESULTS: Sixteen variants were independently associated with two or more vasculitides, 15 of them representing new shared risk loci. Two of these pleiotropic signals, located close to CTLA4 and CPLX1, emerged as novel genetic risk loci in vasculitis. Most of these polymorphisms appeared to affect vasculitis by regulating gene expression. In this regard, for some of these common signals, potential causal genes were prioritised based on functional annotation, including CTLA4, RNF145, IL12B, IL5, IRF1, IFNGR1, PTK2B, TRIM35, EGR2 and ETS2, each of which has key roles in inflammation. In addition, drug repositioning analysis showed that several drugs, including abatacept and ustekinumab, could be potentially repurposed in the management of the analysed vasculitides. CONCLUSIONS: We identified new shared risk loci with functional impact in vasculitis and pinpointed potential causal genes, some of which could represent promising targets for the treatment of vasculitis.

Estimating overdiagnosis in giant cell arteritis diagnostic pathways using genetic data: genetic association study.

OBJECTIVES: Giant cell arteritis (GCA) may be confirmed by temporal artery biopsy (TAB) but false negatives can occur. GCA may be overdiagnosed in TAB-negative cases, or if neither TAB nor imaging is done. We used Human Leucocyte Antigen (HLA) genetic association of TAB-positive GCA as an "unbiased umpire" test to estimate historic overdiagnosis of GCA. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with GCA between 1990-2014 were genotyped. During this era, vascular imaging alone was rarely used to diagnose GCA. HLA region variants were jointly imputed from genome-wide genotypic data of cases and controls. Per-allele frequencies across all HLA variants with p< 1.0x1 0 -5 were compared with population control data to estimate overdiagnosis rates in cases without a positive TAB. RESULTS: Genetic data from 663 GCA patients were compared with data from 2619 population controls. TAB-negative GCA (n = 147) and GCA without TAB result (n = 160) had variant frequencies intermediate between TAB-positive GCA (n = 356) and population controls. For example, the allele frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 was 32% for TAB-positive GCA, 29% for GCA without TAB result, 27% for TAB-negative GCA and 20% in population controls. Making several strong assumptions, we estimated that around two-thirds of TAB-negative cases and one-third of cases without TAB result may have been overdiagnosed. From these data, TAB sensitivity is estimated as 88%. CONCLUSIONS: Conservatively assuming 95% specificity, TAB has a negative likelihood ratio of around 0.12. Our method for utilising standard genotyping data as an "unbiased umpire" might be used as a way of comparing the accuracy of different diagnostic pathways.

Non-trough adalimumab and certolizumab drug levels associated with a therapeutic EULAR response in adherent patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Interventions aimed at increasing TNF-α inhibitor serum drug levels (SDLs) may improve treatment response; however, previous studies suggesting SDL cut-offs have not accounted for treatment adherence. The aim of this study was to establish the relationship between adalimumab/certolizumab SDLs and EULAR good vs non-/moderate response and to define SDL cut-offs associated with good response in fully adherent patients. METHODS: In a prospective observational study, 475 patients with RA were treated with certolizumab (n = 192) or adalimumab (n = 283). At baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months, patients had 28-joint DAS, self-reported treatment adherence and SDLs measured. Fully adherent patients were analysed as a subgroup. Follow-up data at 3, 6 and 12 months were analysed separately. Median SDLs were compared in good vs non-/moderate response patients and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to establish cut-off SDLs. RESULTS: Fully adherent good responders had significantly higher median adalimumab/certolizumab SDLs compared with non-/moderate responders (P = 0.04 and P = 0.0005, respectively). ROC analysis reported 3 month non-trough adalimumab SDLs discriminated good vs non-/moderate response with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52, 0.75), with a cut-off of 7.5 mg/l being 39.1% specific and 80.9% sensitive. Similarly, 3 month non-trough certolizumab SDLs discriminated good vs non-/moderate response with an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.51, 0.78), with a cut-off of 26.0 mg/l being 43.9% specific and 77.8% sensitive. CONCLUSION: In fully adherent patients, higher SDLs are detected in good responders, suggesting that interventions to improve SDLs, such as encouraging adherence, could improve treatment response. The 3 month non-trough SDL cut-offs of 7.5 mg/l for adalimumab and 26.0 mg/l for certolizumab may be useful in clinical practice.

Micro-RNA content of circulating extracellular vesicles in early rheumatoid arthritis as biomarkers and mediators of methotrexate efficacy.

OBJECTIVES: Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are abundant in body fluids, contributing to intercellular signalling by transferring cargo that includes microRNAs (miRs) - themselves implicated in pathobiology. For the first time we evaluated the potential of EV miRs to contribute diagnostic information in early RA, predict methotrexate (MTX) efficacy or shed light on the drug's mechanism of action. METHODS: 798 miRs isolated from serum-derived EVs of 46 patients with untreated RA, 23 with untreated polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR; inflammatory disease control group) and 12 in whom significant inflammatory disease had been excluded (non-inflammatory controls; NICs) were profiled (Nanostring); the same measurements were made for RA patients after 6 months' MTX treatment. Analyses took multiple testing into account. RESULTS: 28 EV miRs were robustly differentially expressed between early RA (but not PMR) patients and NICs after correction for age and sex, suggesting discriminatory value. Cross-validated partial least squared-discriminant analysis also indicated the predictive potential of a distinct baseline EV miR signature with respect to MTX-induced remission at 6 months. The change in expression of 13 miRs over the course of MTX treatment differed significantly between responders and non-responders, and four of those exhibiting increased relative abundance amongst responders have known roles in regulating the pathogenic potential of synovial fibroblasts, namely miR-212-3p, miR-338-5p, miR-410-3p, and miR-537. CONCLUSION: Our data highlight the potential of serum EV miRs as diagnostic and therapeutic biomarkers, highlighting a novel potential mechanism via which MTX may exert its therapeutic effect in early RA that warrants further investigation.

Systemic Inflammation Is Associated With Future Risk of Fatal Infection: An Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Many diseases are associated with chronic inflammation, resulting in widening application of anti-inflammatory therapies. Although they are effective as disease-modifying agents, these anti-inflammatory therapies increase the risk of serious infection; however, it remains unknown whether chronic systemic inflammation per se is also associated with fatal infection. METHODS: Using serum C-reactive protein (CRP) data from 461 052 UK Biobank participants, we defined incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for death from infection, cardiovascular disease, or other causes and adjusted for comorbidities and the use of anti-inflammatory therapies. RESULTS: Systemic inflammation, defined as CRP ≥2 mg/L, was common in all comorbidities considered. After adjusting for confounding factors, systemic inflammation was associated with a higher IRR point estimate for infection death (1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51-1.92) than cardiovascular (1.48; CI, 1.40-1.57) or other death (1.41; CI, 1.37-1.45), although CIs overlapped. C-reactive protein thresholds of ≥5 and ≥10 mg/L yielded similar findings, as did analyses in people with ≥2, but not <2, comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic inflammation per se identifies people at increased risk of infection death, potentially contributing to the observed risks of anti-inflammatory therapies in clinical trials. In future clinical trials of anti-inflammatory therapies, researchers should carefully consider risks and benefits in target populations, guided by research into mechanisms of infection risk.

Pre-defined gene co-expression modules in rheumatoid arthritis transition towards molecular health following anti-TNF therapy.

BACKGROUND: No reliable biomarkers to predict response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) in RA patients currently exist. The aims of this study were to replicate changes in gene co-expression modules that were previously reported in response to TNFi therapy in RA; to test if changes in module expression are specific to TNFi therapy; and to determine whether module expression transitions towards a disease-free state in responding patients. METHOD: Published transcriptomic data from the whole blood of disease-free controls (n = 10) and RA patients, treated with the TNFi adalimumab (n = 70) or methotrexate (n = 85), were studied. Treatment response was assessed using the EULAR response criteria following 3 or 6 months of treatment. Change in transcript expression between pre- and post-treatment was recorded for previously defined modules. Linear mixed models tested whether modular expression after treatment transitioned towards a disease-free state. RESULTS: For 25 of the 27 modules, change in expression between pre- and post-treatment in the adalimumab cohort replicated published findings. Of these 25 modules, six transitioned towards a disease-free state by 3 months (P < 0.05), irrespective of clinical response. One module (M3.2), related to inflammation and TNF biology, significantly correlated with response to adalimumab. Similar patterns of modular expression, with reduced magnitude, were observed in the methotrexate cohort. CONCLUSION: This study provides independent validation of changes in module expression in response to therapy in RA. However, these effects are not specific to TNFi. Further studies are required to determine whether specific modules could assist molecular classification of therapeutic response.

Developing consensus in Histopathology: the role of the Delphi method.

The Delphi method is a well-established research tool, used for consensus building across a number of fields. Despite its widespread use, and popularity in many medical specialities, there is a paucity of literature on the use of the Delphi method in Histopathology. This literature review seeks to critique the Delphi methodology and explore its potential applications to histopathology-based clinical and research questions. We review those published studies that have utilized the Delphi methodology in Histopathology settings and specifically outline the advantages and limitations of this technique, highlighting situations where its application can be most effective.

A methodological framework for AI-assisted diagnosis of active aortitis using radiomic analysis of FDG PET-CT images: Initial analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of assisted diagnosis of active (peri-)aortitis using radiomic imaging biomarkers derived from [18F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography-Computed Tomography (FDG PET-CT) images. METHODS: The aorta was manually segmented on FDG PET-CT in 50 patients with aortitis and 25 controls. Radiomic features (RF) (n = 107), including SUV (Standardized Uptake Value) metrics, were extracted from the segmented data and harmonized using the ComBat technique. Individual RFs and groups of RFs (i.e., signatures) were used as input in Machine Learning classifiers. The diagnostic utility of these classifiers was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy using the clinical diagnosis as the ground truth. RESULTS: Several RFs had high accuracy, 84% to 86%, and AUC scores 0.83 to 0.97 when used individually. Radiomic signatures performed similarly, AUC 0.80 to 1.00. CONCLUSION: A methodological framework for a radiomic-based approach to support diagnosis of aortitis was outlined. Selected RFs, individually or in combination, showed similar performance to the current standard of qualitative assessment in terms of AUC for identifying active aortitis. This framework could support development of a clinical decision-making tool for a more objective and standardized assessment of aortitis.

Affimer proteins inhibit immune complex binding to FcγRIIIa with high specificity through competitive and allosteric modes of action.

Protein-protein interactions are essential for the control of cellular functions and are critical for regulation of the immune system. One example is the binding of Fc regions of IgG to the Fc gamma receptors (FcγRs). High sequence identity (98%) between the genes encoding FcγRIIIa (expressed on macrophages and natural killer cells) and FcγRIIIb (expressed on neutrophils) has prevented the development of monospecific agents against these therapeutic targets. We now report the identification of FcγRIIIa-specific artificial binding proteins called "Affimer" that block IgG binding and abrogate FcγRIIIa-mediated downstream effector functions in macrophages, namely TNF release and phagocytosis. Cocrystal structures and molecular dynamics simulations have revealed the structural basis of this specificity for two Affimer proteins: One binds directly to the Fc binding site, whereas the other acts allosterically.

Dose-dependent oral glucocorticoid cardiovascular risks in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoids are widely used to reduce disease activity and inflammation in patients with a range of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. It is uncertain whether or not low to moderate glucocorticoid dose increases cardiovascular risk. We aimed to quantify glucocorticoid dose-dependent cardiovascular risk in people with 6 immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cohort analysis of medical records from 389 primary care practices contributing data to the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked to hospital admissions and deaths in 1998-2017. We estimated time-variant daily and cumulative glucocorticoid prednisolone-equivalent dose-related risks and hazard ratios (HRs) of first all-cause and type-specific cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). There were 87,794 patients with giant cell arteritis and/or polymyalgia rheumatica (n = 25,581), inflammatory bowel disease (n = 27,739), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 25,324), systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 3,951), and/or vasculitis (n = 5,199), and no prior CVD. Mean age was 56 years and 34.1% were men. The median follow-up time was 5.0 years, and the proportions of person-years spent at each level of glucocorticoid daily exposure were 80% for non-use, 6.0% for <5 mg, 11.2% for 5.0-14.9 mg, 1.6% for 15.0-24.9 mg, and 1.2% for ≥25.0 mg. Incident CVD occurred in 13,426 (15.3%) people, including 6,013 atrial fibrillation, 7,727 heart failure, and 2,809 acute myocardial infarction events. One-year cumulative risks of all-cause CVD increased from 1.4% in periods of non-use to 8.9% for a daily prednisolone-equivalent dose of ≥25.0 mg. Five-year cumulative risks increased from 7.1% to 28.0%, respectively. Compared to periods of non-glucocorticoid use, those with <5.0 mg daily prednisolone-equivalent dose had increased all-cause CVD risk (HR = 1.74; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64-1.84; range 1.52 for polymyalgia rheumatica and/or giant cell arteritis to 2.82 for systemic lupus erythematosus). Increased dose-dependent risk ratios were found regardless of disease activity level and for all type-specific CVDs. HRs for type-specific CVDs and <5.0-mg daily dose use were: 1.69 (95% CI 1.54-1.85) for atrial fibrillation, 1.75 (95% CI 1.56-1.97) for heart failure, 1.76 (95% CI 1.51-2.05) for acute myocardial infarction, 1.78 (95% CI 1.53-2.07) for peripheral arterial disease, 1.32 (95% CI 1.15-1.50) for cerebrovascular disease, and 1.93 (95% CI 1.47-2.53) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. The lack of hospital medication records and drug adherence data might have led to underestimation of the dose prescribed when specialists provided care and overestimation of the dose taken during periods of low disease activity. The resulting dose misclassification in some patients is likely to have reduced the size of dose-response estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed an increased risk of CVDs associated with glucocorticoid dose intake even at lower doses (<5 mg) in 6 immune-mediated diseases. These results highlight the importance of prompt and regular monitoring of cardiovascular risk and use of primary prevention treatment at all glucocorticoid doses.

Differential DNA methylation correlates with response to methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying blood-based biomarkers that predict treatment response in RA is a clinical priority. We investigated differential DNA methylation as a candidate biomarker of response for the first-line drug used in RA, MTX. METHODS: DNA methylation was measured in DNA samples from individuals recruited to the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study. Differentially methylated positions were compared between whole blood samples collected at baseline and at 4 weeks from patients who, by 6 months, had a good (n = 34) or poor response (n = 34) to MTX using linear modelling, adjusting for gender, age, cell composition, baseline 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28) and smoking status. Analyses also compared methylation with changes in DAS28 and changes in swollen joint count and tender joint count, and changes in CRP over the initial 6 months after MTX commencement. Differentially methylated positions showing significant differences with any response parameter were tested using pyrosequencing in an independent group of 100 patients from the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study. RESULTS: In the discovery group, two CpG sites showed methylation changes at 4 weeks associated with clinical EULAR response by 6 months. Significant changes in methylation for three differentially methylated positions associated with change in tender joint counts, three with change in swollen joint count and a further four with change in CRP. Of the 12 CpGs, four showed replicated association in an independent dataset of samples from the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study. CONCLUSION: These data represent an advance on current practice by contributing to a personalized medicine strategy allowing an escalation or change in therapy as early as 4 weeks.

Oral glucocorticoids and incidence of hypertension in people with chronic inflammatory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Only a few population-based studies have examined the association between glucocorticoids and hypertension, with inconsistent results. We aimed to investigate the effect of oral glucocorticoids on incidence of hypertension in adults with chronic inflammatory diseases. METHODS: We analyzed electronic health records from 389 practices in England during 1998-2017 of adults diagnosed with any of 6 chronic inflammatory diseases but with no previous diagnosis of hypertension. We used glucocorticoid prescription data to construct time-variant daily and cumulative variables of prednisolone-equivalent dose (cumulated from 1 year before the start of follow-up) and estimated incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for hypertension using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 71 642 patients in the cohort, 24 896 (34.8%) developed hypertension during a median follow-up of 6.6 years. The incidence rate of hypertension was 46.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.0-47.3) per 1000 person-years. Incidence rates increased with higher cumulative glucocorticoid prednisolone-equivalent dose, from 44.4 per 1000 person-years in periods of nonuse to 45.3 per 1000 person-years for periods with between > 0.0 and 959.9 mg (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19), to 49.3 per 1000 person-years for periods with 960-3054.9 mg (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.14-1.27), and to 55.6 per 1000 person-years for periods with ≥ 3055 mg (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.25-1.35). Cumulative effects were seen for the 6 diseases studied, but dose-response effects were not found for daily dose. INTERPRETATION: Cumulative dose of oral glucocorticoids was associated with increased incidence of hypertension, suggesting that blood pressure should be monitored closely in patients routinely treated with these drugs. Given that glucocorticoids are widely prescribed, the associated health burden could be high. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials. gov, no. NCT03760562.

Prediction of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis patients using genome-wide SNP data.

Although a number of treatments are available for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), each of them shows a significant nonresponse rate in patients. Therefore, predicting a priori the likelihood of treatment response would be of great patient benefit. Here, we conducted a comparison of a variety of statistical methods for predicting three measures of treatment response, between baseline and 3 or 6 months, using genome-wide SNP data from RA patients available from the MAximising Therapeutic Utility in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MATURA) consortium. Two different treatments and 11 different statistical methods were evaluated. We used 10-fold cross validation to assess predictive performance, with nested 10-fold cross validation used to tune the model hyperparameters when required. Overall, we found that SNPs added very little prediction information to that obtained using clinical characteristics only, such as baseline trait value. This observation can be explained by the lack of strong genetic effects and the relatively small sample sizes available; in analysis of simulated and real data, with larger effects and/or larger sample sizes, prediction performance was much improved. Overall, methods that were consistent with the genetic architecture of the trait were able to achieve better predictive ability than methods that were not. For treatment response in RA, methods that assumed a complex underlying genetic architecture achieved slightly better prediction performance than methods that assumed a simplified genetic architecture.

Association of response to TNF inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis with quantitative trait loci for CD40 and CD39.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate whether genetic effects on response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could be localised by considering known genetic susceptibility loci for relevant traits and to evaluate the usefulness of these genetic loci for stratifying drug response. METHODS: We studied the relation of TNFi response, quantified by change in swollen joint counts ( Δ SJC) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate ( Δ ESR) with locus-specific scores constructed from genome-wide assocation study summary statistics in 2938 genotyped individuals: 37 scores for RA; scores for 19 immune cell traits; scores for expression or methylation of 93 genes with previously reported associations between transcript level and drug response. Multivariate associations were evaluated in penalised regression models by cross-validation. RESULTS: We detected a statistically significant association between Δ SJC and the RA score at the CD40 locus (p=0.0004) and an inverse association between Δ SJC and the score for expression of CD39 on CD4 T cells (p=0.00005). A previously reported association between CD39 expression on regulatory T cells and response to methotrexate was in the opposite direction. In stratified analysis by concomitant methotrexate treatment, the inverse association was stronger in the combination therapy group and dissipated in the TNFi monotherapy group. Overall, ability to predict TNFi response from genotypic scores was limited, with models explaining less than 1% of phenotypic variance. CONCLUSIONS: The association with the CD39 trait is difficult to interpret because patients with RA are often prescribed TNFi after failing to respond to methotrexate. The CD39 and CD40 pathways could be relevant for targeting drug therapy.

Validity of a two-component imaging-derived disease activity score for improved assessment of synovitis in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Imaging of joint inflammation provides a standard against which to derive an updated DAS for RA. Our objectives were to develop and validate a DAS based on reweighting the DAS28 components to maximize association with US-assessed synovitis. METHODS: Early RA patients from two observational cohorts (n = 434 and n = 117) and a clinical trial (n = 59) were assessed at intervals up to 104 weeks from baseline; all US scans were within 1 week of clinical exam. There were 899, 163 and 183 visits in each cohort. Associations of combined US grey scale and power Doppler scores (GSPD) with 28 tender joint count and 28 swollen joint count (SJC28), CRP, ESR and general health visual analogue scale were examined in linear mixed model regressions. Cross-validation evaluated model predictive ability. Coefficients learned from training data defined a re-weighted DAS28 that was validated against radiographic progression in independent data (3037 observations; 717 patients). RESULTS: Of the conventional DAS28 components only SJC28 and CRP were associated with GSPD in all three development cohorts. A two-component model including SJC28 and CRP outperformed a four-component model (R2 = 0.235, 0.392, 0.380 vs 0.232, 0.380, 0.375, respectively). The re-weighted two-component DAS28CRP outperformed conventional DAS28 definitions in predicting GSPD (Δtest log-likelihood <-2.6, P < 0.01), Larsen score and presence of erosions. CONCLUSION: A score based on SJC28 and CRP alone demonstrated stronger associations with synovitis and radiographic progression than the original DAS28 and should be considered in research on pathophysiological manifestations of early RA. Implications for clinical management of RA remain to be established.