RESUMO
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to establish radiomics models based on positron emission tomography (PET) images to longitudinally predict transition from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: In our study, 278 MCI patients from the ADNI database were analyzed, where 60 transitioned to AD (pMCI) and 218 remained stable (sMCI) over 48 months. Patients were divided into a training set (n = 222) and a validation set (n = 56). We first employed voxel-based analysis of 18F-FDG PET images to identify brain regions that present significant SUV difference between pMCI and sMCI groups. Radiomic features were extracted from these regions, key features were selected, and predictive models were developed for individual and combined brain regions. The models' effectiveness was evaluated using metrics like AUC to determine the most accurate predictive model for MCI progression. RESULTS: Voxel-based analysis revealed four brain regions implicated in the progression from MCI to AD. These include ROI1 within the Temporal lobe, ROI2 and ROI3 in the Thalamus, and ROI4 in the Limbic system. Among the predictive models developed for these individual regions, the model utilizing ROI4 demonstrated superior predictive accuracy. In the training set, the AUC for the ROI4 model was 0.803 (95% CI 0.736, 0.865), and in the validation set, it achieved an AUC of 0.733 (95% CI 0.559, 0.893). Conversely, the model based on ROI3 showed the lowest performance, with an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.685, 0.809). Notably, the comprehensive model encompassing all identified regions (ROI total) outperformed the single-region models, achieving an AUC of 0.884 (95% CI 0.845, 0.921) in the training set and 0.816 (95% CI 0.705, 0.909) in the validation set, indicating significantly enhanced predictive capability for MCI progression to AD. CONCLUSION: Our findings underscore the Limbic system as the brain region most closely associated with the progression from MCI to AD. Importantly, our study demonstrates that a PET brain radiomics model encompassing multiple brain regions (ROI total) significantly outperforms models based on single brain regions. This comprehensive approach more accurately identifies MCI patients at high risk of progressing to AD, offering valuable insights for non-invasive diagnostics and facilitating early and timely interventions in clinical settings.