The germline JAK2 GGCC (46/1) haplotype and survival among 414 molecularly-annotated patients with primary myelofibrosis.

JAK2 mutations in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are associated with the germline GGCC (46/1) haplotype. In 2010, we reported an association between shortened survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and nullizygosity for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype. In the current study, we have increased the number of informative cases from 130 to 414 (median age 63 years; 63% males), in order to revisit with the phenotypic and prognostic relevance of the JAK2 46/1 haplotype in PMF. JAK2 46/1 haplotype was documented in 69% of the study patients, including 25% in homozygous and 44% in heterozygous state. Driver mutation frequency in patients homozygous/heterozygous/nullizygous for the 46/1 haplotype was 78%/60%/56% JAK2, 10%/20%/18% type 1-like CALR, 3%/2%/5% type 2-like CALR, 4%/8%/7% MPL, and 6%/10%/14% triple-negative (P = .02). In univariate analysis, nullizygosity for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype was associated with inferior overall survival (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.9), most pronounced in JAK2 (P <.001), as opposed to CALR/MPL mutated (P = .48) or triple-negative cases (P = .27). Multivariable analysis that included karyotype, driver mutational status and high-molecular risk mutations confirmed the independent prognostic contribution of nullizygosity for the 46/1 haplotype (P = .02; HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8). Nullizygosity for 46/1 also remained significant in the context of the genetically-inspired GIPSS risk model (P = .04), but not in the context of the integrated genetics-clinical MIPSS70+ version 2.0 model (P = .4). Leukemia-free survival was not affected by the 46/1 haplotype (P = .6). The current study confirms the association of nullizygosity for the JAK2 GGCC (46/1) haplotype with inferior survival in JAK2-mutated PMF.

Mutations and prognosis in myelodysplastic syndromes: karyotype-adjusted analysis of targeted sequencing in 300 consecutive cases and development of a genetic risk model.

To develop a genetic risk model for primary myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), we queried the prognostic significance of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived mutations, in the context of the Mayo cytogenetic risk stratification, which includes high-risk (monosomal karyotype; MK), intermediate-risk (non-MK, classified as intermediate/poor/very poor, per the revised international prognostic scoring system; IPSS-R), and low-risk (classified as good/very good, per IPSS-R). Univariate analysis in 300 consecutive patients with primary MDS identified TP53, RUNX1, U2AF1, ASXL1, EZH2, and SRSF2 mutations as "unfavorable" and SF3B1 as "favorable" risk factors for survival; for the purposes of the current study, the absence of SF3B1 mutation was accordingly dubbed as an "adverse" mutation. Analysis adjusted for age and MK, based on our previous observation of significant clustering between MK and TP53 mutations, confirmed independent prognostic contribution from RUNX1, ASXL1, and SF3B1 mutations. Multivariable analysis that included age, the Mayo cytogenetics risk model and the number of adverse mutations resulted in HRs (95% CI) of 5.3 (2.5-10.3) for presence of three adverse mutations, 2.4 (1.6-3.7) for presence of two adverse mutations, 1.5 (1.02-2.2) for presence of one adverse mutation, 5.6 (3.4-9.1) for high-risk karyotype, 1.5 (1.1-2.2) for intermediate-risk karyotype and 2.4 (1.8-3.3) for age >70 years; HR-weighted risk point assignment generated a three-tiered genetic risk model: high (N = 65; 5-year survival 2%), intermediate (N = 100; 5-year survival 18%), and low (N = 135; 5-year survival 56%). The current study provides a practically simple risk model in MDS that is based on age, karyotype, and mutations only.

Driver mutations and prognosis in primary myelofibrosis: Mayo-Careggi MPN alliance study of 1,095 patients.

The 2013 discovery of calreticulin (CALR) mutations in myeloproliferative neoplasms was attended by their association with longer survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF). Subsequent studies have suggested prognostic distinction between type 1/like and type 2/like CALR mutations and detrimental effect from triple-negative mutational status. Among 709 Mayo Clinic patients with PMF, 467 (66%) harbored JAK2, 112 (16%) CALR type 1/like, 24 (3.4%) CALR type 2/like, 38 (5.4%) MPL mutations and 68 (10%) were triple-negative. Survival was longer with type 1/like CALR, compared to JAK2 (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.5), type 2/like CALR (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.5), MPL (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.9) and triple-negative mutational status (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.6-3.6), but otherwise similar between the non-type 1/like CALR mutational states (P = .41). In multivariable analysis, the absence of type 1/like CALR (P < .001; HR 2, 95% CI 1.4-2.7), presence of ASXL1/SRSF2 mutations (P < .001; HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5-2.4) and DIPSS-plus (P < .001) were each predictive of inferior survival. Furthermore, among 210 patients with ASXL1/SRSF2 mutations, survival was significantly longer in the presence vs. absence of type 1/like CALR mutations (median 5.8 vs. 2.9 years; P < .001). Triple-negative status did not disclose additional prognostic information for overall or leukemia-free survival. The observations regarding the prognostic distinction between CALR mutation variants were validated in an external cohort of 386 patients from the University of Florence Careggi hospital. We conclude that type 1/like CALR mutations in PMF not only predict superior survival, but also partially amend the detrimental effect of high molecular risk mutations.

The prognostic relevance of serum lactate dehydrogenase and mild bone marrow reticulin fibrosis in essential thrombocythemia.

The 2016 World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria for myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) underscore the prognostically-relevant distinction between essential thrombocythemia (ET) and prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (pre-PMF). In addition, leukocytosis has been identified as an important prognostic marker in otherwise WHO-defined ET. However, controversy remains regarding the objectivity of morphologic criteria in distinguishing ET from pre-PMF and the precise prognostic cutoff values for leukocytosis. Serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level might be a biologically more accurate measure of leukocyte turnover and a more sensitive marker of pre-PMF, in otherwise WHO-defined ET. In the current study of 183 consecutive patients with WHO-defined ET, the presence of grade 1 bone marrow (BM) fibrosis did not affect presenting clinical or laboratory features; in contrast, increased serum LDH at diagnosis was associated with leukocytosis (p = .002), thrombocytosis (p < .001), palpable splenomegaly (p = .03) and higher international prognostic score (IPSET) (p = .002); serum LDH did not correlate with BM fibrosis, JAK2/CALR/MPL or TET2/ASXL1 mutations. In univariate analysis, risk factors for survival included age ≥60 years (p = .002; HR 10.2, 95% CI 2.3-44.6), male sex (p = .02; HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.2-8.2), leukocyte count ≥15 × 109 /L (p = .007; HR 4.7, 95% CI 1.5-14.6), and increased serum LDH (p = .002; HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.1), but not BM fibrosis (p = .17). In multivariable analysis, age, sex and serum LDH remained significant; serum LDH also remained significant, in the context of IPSET (p = .003) and in patients with leukocytosis (p = .003). We conclude that serum LDH level carries an independent prognostic value for survival in ET and might represent a biologically more accurate surrogate for leukocytosis.

Risk factors and a prognostic model for postsplenectomy survival in myelofibrosis.

Palliative treatment in myelofibrosis (MF) includes transfusion support, JAK2 inhibitors, involved field radiotherapy and splenectomy. To assist in selecting patients who are likely to benefit from splenectomy, we looked into risk factors for postsplenectomy survival, in 120 consecutive cases (median age 66 years); at the time of splenectomy, 61% displayed red cell transfusion need, 49% platelet count <100 × 10(9)/L, 25% leukocyte count >25 × 10(9)/L, 60% constitutional symptoms and 13% circulating blasts ≥5%; dynamic international prognostic scoring system risk categories were 21% high, 55% intermediate-2, 21% intermediate-1 and 3% low. Among informative cases, karyotype was abnormal in 60% and driver mutational status was JAK2 75%, CALR 15%, MPL 4% and triple-negative 6%. At median follow-up of 1.3 years, from time of splenectomy, 95 (79%) deaths and 30 (25%) leukemic transformations were recorded. Median postsplenectomy survival was 1.5 years; in multivariable analysis, survival was adversely affected by age >65 years, transfusion need, leukocyte count >25 × 10(9)/L and circulating blasts ≥5%; these variables were subsequently used to devise an HR-weighted scoring system with high (3-4 risk factors), intermediate (2 risk factors) and low (0-1 risk factors) risk categories; the corresponding postsplenectomy median survivals were 0.3 (HR 5.9, 95% CI 3.2-11.0), 1.3 (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8-4.6) and 2.9 years. Postsplenectomy survival was not affected by driver mutational status or occurrence of leukemic transformation. Leukemia-free survival was predicted by very high risk karyotype. The observations from the current study might help identify appropriate candidates for splenectomy in MF.

Targeted next-generation sequencing in myelodysplastic syndromes and prognostic interaction between mutations and IPSS-R.

A 27-gene panel was used for next-generation sequencing (NGS) in 179 patients (median age 73 years) with primary myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS); risk distribution according to the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) was 11% very high, 18% high, 17% intermediate, 38% low and 16% very low. At least one mutation/variant was detected in 147 (82%) patients; 23% harbored three or more mutations/variants. The most frequent mutations/variants included ASXL1 (30%), TET2 (25%), SF3B1 (20%), U2AF1 (16%), SRSF2 (16%), TP53 (13%), RUNX1 (11%), and DNMT3A (10%). At a median follow up of 30 months, 148 (83%) deaths and 26 (15%) leukemic transformations were recorded. Multivariable analysis of mutations/variants identified ASXL1 (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.5), SETBP1 (HR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6-10.2) and TP53 (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3-3.4) as risk factors for overall and SRSF2 (HR 3.9, 95% CI 1.5-10.2), IDH2 (HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.2-11.4), and CSF3R (HR 6.0, 95% CI 1.6-22.6) for leukemia-free survival. Addition of age to the multivariable model did not affect these results while accounting for IPSS-R weakened the significance of TP53 mutations/variants (P = .1). An apparently favorable survival impact of SF3B1 mutations was no longer evident after adjustment for IPSS-R. Approximately 41% and 20% of patients harbored at least one adverse mutation/variant for overall and leukemia-free survival, respectively. Number of mutations/variants did not provide additional prognostic value. The survival impact of adverse mutations was most evident in IPSS-R very low/low risk patients. These observations suggest that targeted NGS might assist in treatment decision-making in lower risk MDS.

Gender and survival in essential thrombocythemia: A two-center study of 1,494 patients.

Based on suggestive information from recent epidemiologic data and earlier retrospective studies, we revisited the effect of gender on survival in 1,494 patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET). The primary study population included 904 patients from the Mayo Clinic (median age 58 years; 65% females); risk distribution, according to the international prognostic score for ET (IPSET), was 23% high, 42% intermediate and 35% low. Multivariable analysis that included IPSET-relevant risk factors identified male sex (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-2.0), age ≥60 years (HR 4.3, 95% CI 3.4-5.4) and leukocyte count ≥11 × 10(9)/L (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.9) as independent predictors of shortened survival. These findings were confirmed by analysis of a separate cohort of 590 ET patients (65% females) from the University of Florence, Italy, with corresponding HRs (95% CI) of 1.6 (1.1-2.5), 4.6 (2.2-9.5) and 1.8 (1.1-2.8). The independent prognostic effect of gender was further corroborated by a separate multivariable analysis against IPSET risk categories; HR (95% CI) for the Mayo Clinic/Florence cohorts were 1.5/1.6 (1.2/1.1-1.8/2.5) for male sex, 6.8/7.5 (5.0/3.1-9.3/18.3) for IPSET high risk and 2.8/4.1 (2.1/1.8-3.8/9.5) for IPSET intermediate risk. Furthermore, the survival disadvantage in men was most apparent in IPSET high risk category and in patients older than 60 years. In both patient cohorts, thrombosis history garnered significance in univariate, but not in multivariable analysis. The observations from the current study suggest that women with ET live longer than their male counterparts and that gender might supersede thrombosis history as a risk variable for overall survival.

The role of switch maintenance therapy in urothelial cancers.

Maintenance therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has changed the treatment paradigm of metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC). The JAVELIN Bladder 100 trial established avelumab, one of several ICIs in use today, as a life-prolonging maintenance therapy for patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma. Platinum-based chemotherapy is most often used in the first-line treatment of mUC, and while response rates approach about 50%, disease control is usually short-lived upon completion of the standard three to six cycles of chemotherapy. Much progress has been made in recent years in the second-line space and beyond with the use of ICIs, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) in eligible patients at the time of disease progression post-platinum-based chemotherapy. However, many patients with progressive mUC after first-line chemotherapy suffer from rapid progression of disease, treatment toxicity with subsequent lines of therapy, and a limited life expectancy. Until the results of the JAVELIN Bladder 100 trial were presented in 2020, there were no maintenance strategies proven to be beneficial over best supportive care after disease control is achieved with first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. To date, standard of care frontline treatment of metastatic urothelial cancer remains to be four to six cycles of platinum-based chemotherapy followed by maintenance avelumab. This review summarizes the current evidence available on maintenance therapies in mUC, as well as several highly anticipated clinical trials that we hope will result in further progress in the management of this aggressive cancer and improve patient outcomes.

Leukemic transformation among 1306 patients with primary myelofibrosis: risk factors and development of a predictive model.

Among 1306 patients with primary myelofibrosis (PMF), we sought to identify risk factors that predicted leukemic transformation (LT) in the first 5 years of disease and also over the course of the disease. 149 (11%) LT were documented; patients who subsequently developed LT (n = 149), compared to those who remained in chronic phase disease (n = 1,157), were more likely to be males (p = 0.02) and display higher circulating blasts (p = 0.03), ASXL1 (p = 0.01), SRSF2 (p = 0.001) and IDH1 (p = 0.02) mutations. Logistic regression analysis identified IDH1, ASXL1 and SRSF2 mutations, very high-risk karyotype, age > 70 years, male sex, circulating blasts ≥ 3%, presence of moderate or severe anemia and constitutional symptoms, as predictors of LT in the first 5 years of diagnosis. Time-to-event Cox analysis confirmed LT prediction for IDH1 mutation (HR 4.3), circulating blasts ≥ 3% (HR 3.3), SRSF2 mutation (HR 3.0), age > 70 years (HR 2.1), ASXL1 mutation (HR 2.0) and presence of moderate or severe anemia (HR 1.9). HR-based risk point allocation resulted in a three-tiered LT risk model: high-risk (LT incidence 57%; HR 39.3, 95% CI 10.8-114), intermediate-risk (LT incidence 17%; HR 4.1, 95% CI 2.4-7.3) and low-risk (LT incidence 8%). The current study provides a highly discriminating LT predictive model for PMF.

3023 Mayo Clinic Patients With Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: Risk-Stratified Comparison of Survival and Outcomes Data Among Disease Subgroups.

OBJECTIVE: To document the Mayo Clinic decades-long experience with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) and provide mature risk-stratified survival data and disease complication estimates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All Mayo Clinic patients with World Health Organization-defined MPNs constituted the core study group and included those with polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). RESULTS: A total of 3023 consecutive patients (median age, 62 years; range, 18-96 years) were considered: 665 PV, 1076 ET, and 1282 PMF. From October 27, 1967, through December 29, 2017, 1631 deaths (54%), 183 leukemic transformations (6%), 244 fibrotic progressions (14%), and 516 thrombotic events (17%) were recorded. Median overall survival (OS) was 18 years for ET, 15 years for PV, and 4.4 years for PMF (P<.05 for all intergroup comparisons). Inferior survival was documented in patients with ET diagnosed more recently (post-1990) (P<.001), whereas survival data were time independent in PV and PMF. After conventional risk stratification, OS in low-risk ET and low-risk PV were superimposed (P=.89) but each differed significantly from that of age- and sex-matched controls (P<.001). Leukemia-free survival was similar for ET and PV (P=.22) and significantly worse with PMF (P<.001). Compared with ET, PV was associated with higher risk of fibrotic progression (P<.001). Thrombosis risk after diagnosis was highest in PV and lowest in PMF (P=.002 for PV vs ET; P=.56 for ET vs PMF; and P=.001 for PV vs PMF). CONCLUSION: This study provides the most mature survival and outcomes data in MPNs and highlights MPN subgroup risk categorization as key in appraising disease natural history. The OS was only marginally better in ET compared with PV, and PV displayed a higher risk of thrombosis and fibrotic progression.

Revised cytogenetic risk stratification in primary myelofibrosis: analysis based on 1002 informative patients.

Current cytogenetic risk stratification in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is two-tiered: 'favorable' and 'unfavorable'. Recent studies have suggested prognostic heterogeneity within the unfavorable risk category. In 1002 consecutive patients, we performed stepwise analysis of impact on survival from individual and prognostically ordered cytogenetic abnormalities, leading to a revised three-tiered risk model: 'very high risk (VHR)'-single/multiple abnormalities of -7, i(17q), inv(3)/3q21, 12p-/12p11.2, 11q-/11q23, or other autosomal trisomies not including + 8/ + 9 (e.g., +21, +19); 'favorable'-normal karyotype or sole abnormalities of 13q-, +9, 20q-, chromosome 1 translocation/duplication or sex chromosome abnormality including -Y; 'unfavorable'-all other abnormalities. Median survivals for VHR (n = 75), unfavorable (n = 190) and favorable (n = 737) risk categories were 1.2 (HR 3.8, 95% CI 2.9-4.9), 2.9 (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.0) and 4.4 years and survival impact was independent of clinically derived prognostic systems, driver and ASXL1/SRSF2 mutations. The revised model was also effective in predicting leukemic transformation: HRs (95% CI) were 4.4 (2.0-9.4) for VHR and 2.0 (1.2-3.4) for unfavorable. The impact of driver mutations on survival was confined to favorable and that of ASXL1/SRSF2 mutations to favorable/unfavorable cytogenetic risk categories. The current study clarifies the prognostic hierarchy of genetic risk factors in PMF and provides a more refined three-tiered cytogenetic risk model.