Voluntary Medical Male Circumcisions for HIV Prevention - 13 Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, 2017-2021.

In 2007, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) was endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS after it was found to be associated with approximately a 60% reduction in the risk for female-to-male transmission of HIV (1). As a result of this endorsement, the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), through partnerships with U.S. government agencies, including CDC, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Agency for International Development, started supporting VMMCs performed in prioritized countries in southern and eastern Africa. During 2010-2016, CDC supported 5,880,372 VMMCs in 12 countries (2,3). During 2017-2021, CDC supported 8,497,297 VMMCs performed in 13 countries. In 2020, the number of VMMCs performed declined 31.8% compared with the number in 2019, primarily because of COVID-19-related disruptions to VMMC service delivery. PEPFAR 2017-2021 Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting data were used to provide an update and describe CDC's contribution to the scale-up of the VMMC program, which is important to meeting the 2025 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) target of 90% of males aged 15-59 years having access to VMMC services in prioritized countries to help end the AIDS epidemic by 2030 (4).

Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018).

BACKGROUND: For assessing the HIV epidemic in Kenya, a series of independent HIV indicator household-based surveys of similar design can be used to investigate the trends in key indicators relevant to HIV prevention and control and to describe geographic and sociodemographic disparities, assess the impact of interventions, and develop strategies. We developed methods and tools to facilitate a robust analysis of trends across three national household-based surveys conducted in Kenya in 2007, 2012, and 2018. METHODS: We used data from the 2007 and 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator surveys (KAIS 2007 and KAIS 2012) and the 2018 Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA 2018). To assess the design and other variables of interest from each study, variables were recoded to ensure that they had equivalent meanings across the three surveys. After assessing weighting procedures for comparability, we used the KAIS 2012 nonresponse weighting procedure to revise normalized KENPHIA weights. Analyses were restricted to geographic areas covered by all three surveys. The revised analysis files were then merged into a single file for pooled analysis. We assessed distributions of age, sex, household wealth, and urban/rural status to identify unexpected changes between surveys. To demonstrate how a trend analysis can be carried out, we used continuous, binary, and time-to-event variables as examples. Specifically, temporal trends in age at first sex and having received an HIV test in the last 12 months were used to demonstrate the proposed analytical approach. These were assessed with respondent-specific variables (age, sex, level of education, and marital status) and household variables (place of residence and wealth index). All analyses were conducted in SAS 9.4, but analysis files were created in Stata and R format to support additional analyses. RESULTS: This study demonstrates trends in selected indicators to illustrate the approach that can be used in similar settings. The incidence of early sexual debut decreased from 11.63 (95% CI: 10.95-12.34) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2007 to 10.45 (95% CI: 9.75-11.2) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2012 and to 9.58 (95% CI: 9.08-10.1) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2018. HIV-testing rates increased from 12.6% (95% CI: 11.6%-13.6%) in 2007 to 56.1% (95% CI: 54.6%-57.6%) in 2012 but decreased slightly to 55.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-56.6%) in 2018. The decrease in incidence of early sexual debut could be convincingly demonstrated between 2007 and 2012 but not between 2012 and 2018. Similarly, there was virtually no difference between HIV Testing rates in 2012 and 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach can be used to support trend comparisons for variables in HIV surveys in low-income settings. Independent national household surveys can be assessed for comparability, adjusted as appropriate, and used to estimate trends in key indicators. Analyzing trends over time can not only provide insights into Kenya's progress toward HIV epidemic control but also identify gaps.

Development and Validation of a Sociodemographic and Behavioral Characteristics-Based Risk-Score Algorithm for Targeting HIV Testing Among Adults in Kenya.

To inform targeted HIV testing, we developed and externally validated a risk-score algorithm that incorporated behavioral characteristics. Outpatient data from five health facilities in western Kenya, comprising 19,458 adults ≥ 15 years tested for HIV from September 2017 to May 2018, were included in univariable and multivariable analyses used for algorithm development. Data for 11,330 adults attending one high-volume facility were used for validation. Using the final algorithm, patients were grouped into four risk-score categories: ≤ 9, 10-15, 16-29 and ≥ 30, with increasing HIV prevalence of 0.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.75], 1.35% (95% CI 0.85-1.84), 2.65% (95% CI 1.8-3.51), and 15.15% (95% CI 9.03-21.27), respectively. The algorithm's discrimination performance was modest, with an area under the receiver-operating-curve of 0.69 (95% CI 0.53-0.84). In settings where universal testing is not feasible, a risk-score algorithm can identify sub-populations with higher HIV-risk to be prioritized for HIV testing.

Mapping geographic clusters of new HIV diagnoses to inform granular-level interventions for HIV epidemic control in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: As countries make progress towards HIV epidemic control, there is increasing need to identify finer geographic areas to target HIV interventions. We mapped geographic clusters of new HIV diagnoses, and described factors associated with HIV-positive diagnosis, in order to inform targeting of HIV interventions to finer geographic areas and sub-populations. METHODS: We analyzed data for clients aged > 15 years who received home-based HIV testing as part of a routine public health program between May 2016 and July 2017 in Siaya County, western Kenya. Geospatial analysis using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic was used to detect geographic clusters (radius < 5 kilometers) of new HIV diagnoses. Factors associated with new HIV diagnosis were assessed in a spatially-integrated Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: Of 268,153 clients with HIV test results, 2906 (1.1%) were diagnosed HIV-positive. We found spatial variation in the distribution of new HIV diagnoses, and identified nine clusters in which the number of new HIV diagnoses was significantly (1.56 to 2.64 times) higher than expected. Sub-populations with significantly higher HIV-positive yield identified in the multivariable spatially-integrated Bayesian model included: clients aged 20-24 years [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 3.45, 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CI) 2.85-4.20], 25-35 years (aRR 4.76, 95% CI 3.92-5.81) and > 35 years (aRR 2.44, 95% CI 1.99-3.00); those in polygamous marriage (aRR 1.84, 95% CI 1.55-2.16), or separated/divorced (aRR 3.36, 95% CI 2.72-4.08); and clients who reported having never been tested for HIV (aRR 2.35, 95% CI 2.02-2.72), or having been tested > 12 months ago (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.66). CONCLUSION: Our study used routine public health program data to identify granular geographic clusters of higher new HIV diagnoses, and sub-populations with higher HIV-positive yield in the setting of a generalized HIV epidemic. In order to target HIV testing and prevention interventions to finer granular geographic areas for maximal epidemiologic impact, integrating geospatial analysis into routine public health programs can be useful.

Shifting reasons for older men remaining uncircumcised: Findings from a pre- and post-demand creation intervention among men aged 25-39 years in western Kenya.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces men's risk of acquiring Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) through vaginal sex. However, VMMC uptake remains lowest among Kenyan men ages 25-39 years among whom the impact on reducing population-level HIV incidence was estimated to be greatest at the start of the study in 2014. We conducted a pre- and post-intervention survey as part of a cluster randomized controlled trial to determine the effect of two interventions (interpersonal communication (IPC) and dedicated service outlets (DSO), delivered individually or together) on improving VMMC uptake among men ages 25-39 years in western Kenya between 2014 and 2016. The study had three intervention arms and a control arm. In arm one, an IPC toolkit was used to address barriers to VMMC. In arm two, men were referred to DSO that were modified to address their preferences. Arm three combined the IPC and DSO. The control arm had standard of care. At baseline, uncircumcised men ranked the top three reasons for remaining uncircumcised. An IPC demand creation toolkit was used to address the identified barriers and men were referred for VMMC at study-designated facilities. At follow-up, those who remained uncircumcised were again asked to rank the top three reasons for not getting circumcised. There was inconsistency in ranking of reported barriers at pre- and post- intervention: 'time/venue not convenient' was ranked third at baseline and seventh at follow-up; 'too busy to go for circumcision' was tenth at baseline but second at follow-up, and concern about 'what I/family will eat' was ranked first at both baseline and follow-up, but the proportion reduced from 62% to 28%. Men ages 25-39 years cited a variety of logistical and psychosocial barriers to receiving VMMC. After exposure to IPC, most of these barriers shifted while some remained the same. Additional innovative interventions to address on-going and shifting barriers may help improve VMMC uptake among older men.

Strategies to increase uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision among men aged 25-39 years in Nyanza Region, Kenya: Results from a cluster randomized controlled trial (the TASCO study).

INTRODUCTION: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention began in Nyanza Region, Kenya in 2008. By 2014, approximately 800,000 VMMCs had been conducted, and 84.9% were among males aged 15-24 years. We evaluated the impact of interpersonal communication (IPC) and dedicated service outlets (DSO) on VMMC uptake among men aged 25-39 years in Nyanza Region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial in 45 administrative Locations (clusters) in Nyanza Region between May 2014 and June 2016 among uncircumcised men aged 25-34 years. In arm one, an IPC toolkit was used to address barriers to VMMC. In the second arm, men were referred to DSO that were modified to address their preferences. Arm three combined the IPC and DSO arms, and arm four was standard of care (SOC). Randomization was done at Location level (11-12 per arm). The primary outcome was the proportion of enrolled men who received VMMC within three months. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the effect of interventions on the outcome. RESULTS: At baseline, 9,238 households with men aged 25-39 years were enumerated, 9,679 men were assessed, and 2,792 (28.8%) were eligible. For enrollment, 577 enrolled in the IPC arm, 825 in DSO, 723 in combined IPC + DSO, and 667 in SOC. VMMC uptake among men in the SOC arm was 3.2%. In IPC, DSO, and combined IPC + DSO arms, uptake was 3.3%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of VMMC uptake in the study arms compared to SOC were IPC aOR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.50-2.13, DSO aOR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.67-2.57, and IPC + DSO combined aOR = 1.31, 95% CI: 0.65-2.67. DISCUSSION: Using these interventions among men aged 25-39 years did not significantly impact VMMC uptake. These findings suggest that alternative demand creation strategies for VMMC services are needed to reach men aged 25-39 years. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02497989.

Uptake and continuation of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among women of reproductive age in two health facilities in Kisumu County, Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, Kenya had 19,000 new HIV infections among women aged 15+ years. Studies have shown sub-optimal oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among sub-populations of women. We assessed the uptake and continuation of oral PrEP among women 15-49 years in two health facilities in Kisumu County, Kenya. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 262 women aged 15-49 years, initiated into oral PrEP between 12 November 2019 and 31 March 2021, was identified from two health facilities in the urban setting of Kisumu County, Kenya. Data on baseline characteristics and oral PrEP continuation at months 1, 3 and 6 were abstracted from patient records and summarized using descriptive statistics. Missing data in the predictor variables were imputed within the joint modelling multiple imputation framework. Using logistic regression, we evaluated factors associated with the discontinuation of oral PrEP at month 1. RESULTS: Of the 66,054 women screened, 320 (0.5%) were eligible and 262 (82%) were initiated on oral PrEP. Uptake was higher among women 25-29 years as compared to those 15-24 years (77% vs. 33%). Oral PrEP continuation declined significantly with increasing duration of follow-up; 37% at month 1, 21% at month 3 and 12% at month 6 (p<0.05). In the adjusted analysis, women 15-24 years had lower adjusted odds of continuing at month 1 than women ≥25 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.21-0.82). There was no association between being sero-discordant and continuation of oral PrEP at month 1 (aOR; 1.21, 95% CI 0.59-2.50). Women from the sub-county hospital were more likely to continue at month 1 of follow-up compared to women enrolled in the county referral hospital (aOR 5.11; 95% CI 2.24-11.70). CONCLUSIONS: The low eligibility for oral PrEP observed among women 15-49 years in an urban setting with high HIV prevalence calls for a review of the screening process to validate the sensitivity of the screening tool and its proper application. The low uptake and continuation among adolescent girls and young women underscores the need to identify and address specific patient- and facility-level barriers affecting different sub-populations at risk for HIV acquisition.

Retrospective longitudinal analysis of low-level viremia among HIV-1 infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Kenya.

Background: HIV low-level viremia (LLV) (51-999 copies/mL) can progress to treatment failure and increase potential for drug resistance. We analyzed retrospective longitudinal data from people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Kenya to understand LLV prevalence and virologic outcomes. Methods: We calculated rates of virologic suppression (≤50 copies/mL), LLV (51-999 copies/mL), virologic non-suppression (≥1000 copies/mL), and virologic failure (≥2 consecutive virologic non-suppression results) among PLHIV aged 15 years and older who received at least 24 weeks of ART during 2015-2021. We analyzed risk for virologic non-suppression and virologic failure using time-dependent models (each viral load (VL) <1000 copies/mL used to predict the next VL). Findings: Of 793,902 patients with at least one VL, 18.5% had LLV (51-199 cp/mL 11.1%; 200-399 cp/mL 4.0%; and 400-999 cp/mL 3.4%) and 9.2% had virologic non-suppression at initial result. Among all VLs performed, 26.4% were LLV. Among patients with initial LLV, 13.3% and 2.4% progressed to virologic non-suppression and virologic failure, respectively. Compared to virologic suppression (≤50 copies/mL), LLV was associated with increased risk of virologic non-suppression (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 2.43) and virologic failure (aRR 3.86). Risk of virologic failure increased with LLV range (aRR 2.17 with 51-199 copies/mL, aRR 3.98 with 200-399 copies/mL and aRR 7.99 with 400-999 copies/mL). Compared to patients who never received dolutegravir (DTG), patients who initiated DTG had lower risk of virologic non-suppression (aRR 0.60) and virologic failure (aRR 0.51); similarly, patients who transitioned to DTG had lower risk of virologic non-suppression (aRR 0.58) and virologic failure (aRR 0.35) for the same LLV range. Interpretation: Approximately a quarter of patients experienced LLV and had increased risk of virologic non-suppression and failure. Lowering the threshold to define virologic suppression from <1000 to <50 copies/mL to allow for earlier interventions along with universal uptake of DTG may improve individual and program outcomes and progress towards achieving HIV epidemic control. Funding: No specific funding was received for the analysis. HIV program support was provided by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

HIV Incidence, Recent HIV Infection, and Associated Factors, Kenya, 2007-2018.

Nationally representative surveys provide an opportunity to assess trends in recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection based on assays for recent HIV infection. We assessed HIV incidence in Kenya in 2018 and trends in recent HIV infection among adolescents and adults in Kenya using nationally representative household surveys conducted in 2007, 2012, and 2018. To assess trends, we defined a recent HIV infection testing algorithm (RITA) that classified as recently infected (<12 months) those HIV-positive participants that were recent on the HIV-1 limiting antigen (LAg)-avidity assay without evidence of antiretroviral use. We assessed factors associated with recent and long-term (≥12 months) HIV infection versus no infection using a multinomial logit model while accounting for complex survey design. Of 1,523 HIV-positive participants in 2018, 11 were classified as recent. Annual HIV incidence was 0.14% in 2018 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.057-0.23], representing 35,900 (95% CI 16,300-55,600) new infections per year in Kenya among persons aged 15-64 years. The percentage of HIV infections that were determined to be recent was similar in 2007 and 2012 but fell significantly from 2012 to 2018 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.31, p < .001]. Compared to no HIV infection, being aged 25-34 versus 35-64 years (aOR = 4.2, 95% CI 1.4-13), having more lifetime sex partners (aOR = 5.2, 95% CI 1.6-17 for 2-3 partners and aOR = 8.6, 95% CI 2.8-26 for ≥4 partners vs. 0-1 partners), and never having tested for HIV (aOR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.5-11) were independently associated with recent HIV infection. Although HIV remains a public health priority in Kenya, HIV incidence estimates and trends in recent HIV infection support a significant decrease in new HIV infections from 2012 to 2018, a period of rapid expansion in HIV diagnosis, prevention, and treatment.

Factors associated with enrollment into differentiated service delivery model among adults with HIV in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) such as multimonth dispensing (MMD) aims to provide client-centered HIV services, while reducing the workload within health facilities. We assessed individual and facility factors associated with receiving more than three MMD and switching from ≥3MMD back to <3MMD in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of clients eligible for DSD between July 2017 and December 2019. A random sample of clients eligible for DSD was selected from 32 randomly selected facilities located in Nairobi, Kisii, and Migori counties. We used a multilevel Poisson regression model to assess the factors associated with receiving ≥3MMD, and with switching from ≥3MMD back to <3MMD. RESULTS: A total of 3501 clients eligible for ≥3MMD were included in our analysis: 1808 (51.6%) were receiving care in Nairobi County and the remaining 1693 (48.4%) in Kisii and Migori counties. Overall, 65% of clients were enrolled in ≥3MMD at the time of entry into the cohort. In the multivariable model, younger age (20-24; 25-29; 30-34 vs. 50 or more years) and switching ART regimen was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of ≥3MMD uptake. Factors associated with a higher likelihood of enrollment in ≥3MMD included receiving DTG vs. EFV-based ART regimen (aRR: 1.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.15). CONCLUSION: Client-level characteristics are associated with being on ≥3MMD and the likelihood of switching from ≥3MMD to <3MMD. Monitoring DSD enrollment across different populations is critical to successfully implementing these models continually.

Leading causes of death and high mortality rates in an HIV endemic setting (Kisumu county, Kenya, 2019).

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, underlying causes of death (UCOD) often are not ascertained systematically, leading to unreliable mortality statistics. We reviewed medical charts to establish UCOD for decedents at two high volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, and compared ascertained UCOD to those notified to the civil registry. METHODS: Medical experts trained in COD certification examined medical charts and ascertained causes of death for 456 decedents admitted to the mortuaries from April 16 through July 12, 2019. Decedents with unknown HIV status or who had tested HIV-negative >90 days before the date of death were tested for HIV. We calculated annualized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates grouped according to global burden of disease (GBD) categories and separately for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and expressed estimated deaths per 100,000 population. We compared notified to ascertained UCOD using Cohen's Kappa (κ) and assessed for the independence of proportions using Pearson's chi-squared test. FINDINGS: The four leading UCOD were HIV/AIDS (102/442 [23.1%]), hypertensive disease (41/442 [9.3%]), other cardiovascular diseases (23/442 [5.2%]), and cancer (20/442 [4.5%]). The all-cause mortality rate was 1,086/100,000 population. The highest cause-specific mortality was in GBD category II (noncommunicable diseases; 516/100,000), followed by GBD I (communicable, perinatal, maternal, and nutritional; 513/100,000), and III (injuries; 56/100,000). The HIV/AIDS mortality rate was 251/100,000 population. The proportion of deaths due to GBD II causes was higher among females (51.9%) than male decedents (42.1%; p = 0.039). Conversely, more men/boys (8.6%) than women/girls (2.1%) died of GBD III causes (p = 0.002). Most of the records with available recorded and ascertained UCOD (n = 236), 167 (70.8%) had incorrectly recorded UCOD, and agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD was poor (29.2%; κ = 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS, is high in Kisumu County, but there is a shift toward higher mortality from noncommunicable diseases, possibly reflecting an epidemiologic transition and improving HIV outcomes. The epidemiologic transition suggests the need for increased focus on controlling noncommunicable conditions despite the high communicable disease burden. The weak agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD could lead to substantial inaccuracies in mortality statistics, which wholly depend on death notifications.

Evaluation of the Performance of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Test Among Decedents in Kisumu, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Estimating cause-related mortality among the dead is not common, yet for clinical and public health purposes, a lot can be learnt from the dead. HIV/AIDS accounted for the third most frequent cause of deaths in Kenya; 39.7 deaths per 100,000 population in 2019. OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 has previously been validated on oral fluid and implemented as a screening assay for HIV self-testing in Kenya among living subjects. We assessed the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 for HIV screening among decedents. METHODS: Trained morticians collected oral fluid from 132 preembalmed and postembalmed decedents aged >18 months at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Teaching and Referral Hospital mortuary in western Kenya and tested for HIV using OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2. Test results were compared with those obtained using the national HIV Testing Services algorithm on matched preembalming whole blood specimens as a gold standard (Determine HIV and First Response HIV 1-2-O). We calculated positive predictive values, negative predictive values, area under the curve, and sensitivity and specificity of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 compared with the national HTS algorithm. RESULTS: OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 had similar sensitivity of 92.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 75.7 to 99.1] on preembalmed and postembalmed samples compared with the gold standard. Specificity was 97.1% (95% CI: 91.9 to 99.4) and 95.2% (95% CI: 89.2 to 98.4) preembalming and postembalming, respectively. Preembalming and postembalming positive predictive value was 89.3% (95% CI: 71.8 to 97.7) and 83.3% (95% CI: 65.3 to 94.4), respectively. The area under the curve preembalming and postembalming was 94.9% (95% CI: 89.6 to 100) and 93.9% (95% CI: 88.5 to 99.4), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed a relatively high-performance sensitivity and specificity of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 test among decedents, similar to those observed among living subjects. OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 presents a convenient and less invasive screening test for surveillance of HIV among decedents within a mortuary setting.

Prevalence of male circumcision in four culturally non-circumcising counties in western Kenya after 10 years of program implementation from 2008 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Kenya started implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention in 2008 and adopted the use of decision makers program planning tool version 2 (DMPPT2) in 2016, to model the impact of circumcisions performed annually on the population prevalence of male circumcision (MC) in the subsequent years. Results of initial DMPPT2 modeling included implausible MC prevalence estimates, of up to 100%, for age bands whose sustained high uptake of VMMC pointed to unmet needs. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional survey among adolescents and men aged 10-29 years to determine the population level MC prevalence, guide target setting for achieving the goal of 80% MC prevalence and for validating DMPPT2 modelled estimates. METHODS: Beginning July to September 2019, a total of 3,569 adolescents and men aged 10-29 years from households in Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori Counties were interviewed and examined to establish the proportion already circumcised medically or non-medically. We measured agreement between self-reported and physically verified circumcision status and computed circumcision prevalence by age band and County. All statistical were test done at 5% level of significance. RESULTS: The observed MC prevalence for 15-29-year-old men was above 75% in all four counties; Homa Bay 75.6% (95% CI [69.0-81.2]), Kisumu 77.9% (95% CI [73.1-82.1]), Siaya 80.3% (95% CI [73.7-85.5]), and Migori 85.3% (95% CI [75.3-91.7]) but were 0.9-12.4% lower than DMPPT2-modelled estimates. For young adolescents 10-14 years, the observed prevalence ranged from 55.3% (95% CI [40.2-69.5]) in Migori to 74.9% (95% CI [68.8-80.2]) in Siaya and were 25.1-32.9% lower than DMMPT 2 estimates. Nearly all respondents (95.5%) consented to physical verification of their circumcision status with an agreement rate of 99.2% between self-reported and physically verified MC status (kappa agreement p-value<0.0001). CONCLUSION: This survey revealed overestimation of MC prevalence from DMPPT2-model compared to the observed population MC prevalence and provided new reference data for setting realistic program targets and re-calibrating inputs into DMPPT2. Periodic population-based MC prevalence surveys, especially for established programs, can help reconcile inconsistencies between VMMC program uptake data and modeled MC prevalence estimates which are based on the number of procedures reported in the program annually.

High HIV prevalence among decedents received by two high-volume mortuaries in Kisumu, western Kenya, 2019.

BACKGROUND: Accurate data on HIV-related mortality are necessary to evaluate the impact of HIV interventions. In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), mortality data obtained through civil registration are often of poor quality. Though not commonly conducted, mortuary surveillance is a potential complementary source of data on HIV-associated mortality. METHODS: During April-July 2019, we assessed HIV prevalence, the attributable fraction among the exposed, and the population attributable fraction among decedents received by two high-volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, where HIV prevalence in the adult population was estimated at 18% in 2019 with high ART coverage (76%). Stillbirths were excluded. The two mortuaries receive 70% of deaths notified to the Kisumu East civil death registry; this registry captures 45% of deaths notified in Kisumu County. We conducted hospital chart reviews to determine the HIV status of decedents. Decedents without documented HIV status, including those dead on arrival, were tested using HIV antibody tests or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) consistent with national HIV testing guidelines. Decedents aged less than 15 years were defined as children. We estimated annual county deaths by applying weights that incorporated the study period, coverage of deaths, and mortality rates observed in the study. RESULTS: The two mortuaries received a total of 1,004 decedents during the study period, of which 95.1% (955/1004) were available for study; 89.1% (851/955) of available decedents were enrolled of whom 99.4% (846/851) had their HIV status available from medical records and post-mortem testing. The overall population-based, age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate was 12.4 per 1,000 population. The unadjusted HIV prevalence among decedents was 28.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.5-31.6). The age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate in the HIV-infected population (40.7/1000 population) was four times higher than in the HIV-uninfected population (10.2/1000 population). Overall, the attributable fraction among the HIV-exposed was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.66-0.76) while the HIV population attributable fraction was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.14-0.20). In children the attributable fraction among the exposed and population attributable fraction were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.94) and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08-0.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over one quarter (28.5%) of decedents received by high-volume mortuaries in western Kenya were HIV-positive; overall, HIV was considered the cause of death in 17% of the population (19% of adults and 11% of children). Despite substantial scale-up of HIV services, HIV disease remains a leading cause of death in western Kenya. Despite progress, increased efforts remain necessary to prevent and treat HIV infection and disease.

Decreased HIV-associated mortality rates during scale-up of antiretroviral therapy, 2011-2016.

OBJECTIVE: HIV-associated mortality rates in Africa decreased by 10-20% annually in 2003-2011, after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to document HIV-associated mortality rates in the general population in Kenya after 2011 in an era of expanded access to ART. DESIGN: We obtained data on mortality rates and migration from a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in Gem, western Kenya, and data for HDSS residents aged 15-64 years from home-based HIV counseling and testing (HBCT) rounds in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016. METHODS: Mortality trends were determined among a closed cohort of residents who participated in at least the 2011 round of HBCT. RESULTS: Of 32 467 eligible HDSS residents, 22 688 (70%) participated in the 2011 round and comprised the study cohort. All-cause mortality rates declined from 10.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.4-11.7] per 1000 in 2011 to 7.4 (95% CI 5·7-9·0) in 2016, whereas the mortality rate was stable among HIV-uninfected residents, at 5.7 per 1000 person-years. Among HIV-infected residents, mortality rates declined from 30.5 per 1000 in 2011 to 15.9 per 1000 in 2016 (average decline 6% per year). The HIV-infected group receiving ART had higher mortality rates than the HIV-uninfected group [adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 2.8, 95% CI 2.2-3.4], as did the HIV-infected group who did not receive ART (aRR 5.3, 95% CI 4.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates among HIV-infected individuals declined substantially during ART expansion between 2011 and 2016, though less than during early ART introduction. Mortality trends among HIV-infected populations are critical to understanding epidemic dynamics.

Expanded eligibility for HIV testing increases HIV diagnoses-A cross-sectional study in seven health facilities in western Kenya.

Homa Bay, Siaya, and Kisumu counties in western Kenya have the highest estimated HIV prevalence (16.3-21.0%) in the country, and struggle to meet program targets for HIV testing services (HTS). The Kenya Ministry of Health (MOH) recommends annual HIV testing for the general population. We assessed the degree to which reducing the interval for retesting to less than 12 months increased diagnosis of HIV in outpatient departments (OPD) in western Kenya. We conducted a retrospective analysis of routinely collected program data from seven high-volume (>800 monthlyOPD visits) health facilities in March-December, 2017. Data from persons ≥15 years of age seeking medical care (patients) in the OPD and non-care-seekers (non-patients) accompanying patients to the OPD were included. Outcomes were meeting MOH (routine) criteria versus criteria for a reduced retesting interval (RRI) of <12 months, and HIV test result. STATA version 14.2 was used to calculate frequencies and proportions, and to test for differences using bivariate analysis. During the 9-month period, 119,950 clients were screened for HIV testing eligibility, of whom 79% (94,766) were eligible and 97% (92,153) received a test. Among 92,153 clients tested, the median age was 28 years, 57% were female and 40% (36,728) were non-patients. Overall, 20% (18,120) of clients tested met routine eligibility criteria: 4% (3,972) had never been tested, 10% (9,316) reported a negative HIV test in the past >12 months, and 5% (4,832) met other criteria. The remaining 80% (74,033) met criteria for a RRI of < 12 months. In total 1.3% (1,185) of clients had a positive test. Although the percent yield was over 2-fold higher among those meeting routine criteria (2.4% vs. 1.0%; p<0.001), 63% (750) of all HIV infections were found among clients tested less than 12 months ago, the majority (81%) of whom reported having a negative test in the past 3-12 months. Non-patients accounted for 45% (539) of all HIV-positive persons identified. Percent yield was higher among non-patients as compared to patients (1.5% vs. 1.2%; p-value = <0.001) overall and across eligibility criteria and age categories. The majority of HIV diagnoses in the OPD occurred among clients reporting a negative HIV test in the past 12 months, clients ineligible for testing under the current MOH guidelines. Nearly half of all HIV-positive individuals identified in the OPD were non-patients. Our findings suggest that in the setting of a generalized HIV epidemic, retesting persons reporting an HIV-negative test in the past 3-12 months, and routine testing of non-patients accessing the OPD are key strategies for timely diagnosis of persons living with HIV.

Agreement between self-reported and physically verified male circumcision status in Nyanza region, Kenya: Evidence from the TASCO study.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported male circumcision (MC) status is widely used to estimate community prevalence of circumcision, although its accuracy varies in different settings depending on the extent of misreporting. Despite this challenge, self-reported MC status remains essential because it is the most feasible method of collecting MC status data in community surveys. Therefore, its accuracy is an important determinant of the reliability of MC prevalence estimates based on such surveys. We measured the concurrence between self-reported and physically verified MC status among men aged 25-39 years during a baseline household survey for a study to test strategies for enhancing MC uptake by older men in Nyanza region of Kenya. The objective was to determine the accuracy of self-reported MC status in communities where MC for HIV prevention is being rolled out. METHODS: Agreement between self-reported and physically verified MC status was measured among 4,232 men. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data on MC status followed by physical examination to verify the actual MC status whose outcome was recorded as fully circumcised (no foreskin), partially circumcised (foreskin is past corona sulcus but covers less than half of the glans) or uncircumcised (foreskin covers half or more of the glans). The sensitivity and specificity of self-reported MC status were calculated using physically verified MC status as the gold standard. RESULTS: Out of 4,232 men, 2,197 (51.9%) reported being circumcised, of whom 99.0% were confirmed to be fully circumcised on physical examination. Among 2,035 men who reported being uncircumcised, 93.7% (1,907/2,035) were confirmed uncircumcised on physical examination. Agreement between self-reported and physically verified MC status was almost perfect, kappa (k) = 98.6% (95% CI, 98.1%-99.1%. The sensitivity of self-reporting being circumcised was 99.6% (95% CI, 99.2-99.8) while specificity of self-reporting uncircumcised was 99.0% (95% CI, 98.4-99.4) and did not differ significantly by age group based on chi-square test. Rate of consenting to physical verification of MC status differed by client characteristics; unemployed men were more likely to consent to physical verification (odds ratio [OR] = 1.48, (95% CI, 1.30-1.69) compared to employed men and those with post-secondary education were less likely to consent to physical verification than those with primary education or less (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61, (95% CI, 0.51-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: In this Kenyan context, both sensitivity and specificity of self-reported MC status was high; therefore, MC prevalence estimates based on self-reported MC status should be deemed accurate and applicable for planning. However MC programs should assess accuracy of self-reported MC status periodically for any secular changes that may undermine its usefulness for estimating community MC prevalence in their unique settings.

Predictors of voluntary medical male circumcision prevalence among men aged 25-39 years in Nyanza region, Kenya: Results from the baseline survey of the TASCO study.

INTRODUCTION: Uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as an intervention for prevention of HIV acquisition has been low among men aged ≥25 years in Nyanza region, western Kenya. We conducted a baseline survey of the prevalence and predictors of VMMC among men ages 25-39 years as part of the preparations for a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) called the Target, Speed and Coverage (TASCO) Study. The TASCO Study aimed to assess the impact of two demand creation interventions-interpersonal communication (IPC) and dedicated service outlets (DSO), delivered separately and together (IPC + DSO)-on VMMC uptake. METHODS: As part of the preparatory work for implementation of the cRCT to evaluate tailored interventions to improve uptake of VMMC, we conducted a survey of men aged 25-39 years from a traditionally non-circumcising Kenyan ethnic community within non-contiguous locations selected as study sites. We determined their circumcision status, estimated the baseline circumcision prevalence and assessed predictors of being circumcised using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 5,639 men were enrolled of which 2,851 (50.6%) reported being circumcised. The odds of being circumcised were greater for men with secondary education (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.45-1.86, p<0.001), post-secondary education (aOR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.44-2.06, p <0.001), and those employed (aOR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.18-1.47, p <0.001). However, the odds were lower for men with a history of being married (currently married, divorced, separated, or widowed). CONCLUSION: Among adult men in the rural Nyanza region of Kenya, men with post-primary education and employed were more likely to be circumcised. VMMC programs should focus on specific sub-groups of men, including those aged 25-39 years who are married, divorced/separated/ widowed, and of low socio-economic status (low education and unemployed).