Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan.

We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020-January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.

Mpox in Children and Adolescents during Multicountry Outbreak, 2022-2023.

The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak predominantly affected adult men; 1.3% of reported cases were in children and adolescents <18 years of age. Analysis of global surveillance data showed 1 hospital intensive care unit admission and 0 deaths in that age group. Transmission routes and clinical manifestations varied across age subgroups.

The World Health Organization's public health intelligence activities during the COVID-19 pandemic response, December 2019 to December 2021.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presented a unique opportunity for the World Health Organization (WHO) to utilise public health intelligence (PHI) for pandemic response. WHO systematically captured mainly unstructured information (e.g. media articles, listservs, community-based reporting) for public health intelligence purposes. WHO used the Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system as one of the information sources for PHI. The processes and scope for PHI were adapted as the pandemic evolved and tailored to regional response needs. During the early months of the pandemic, media monitoring complemented official case and death reporting through the International Health Regulations mechanism and triggered alerts. As the pandemic evolved, PHI activities prioritised identifying epidemiological trends to supplement the information available through indicator-based surveillance reported to WHO. The PHI scope evolved over time to include vaccine introduction, emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, unusual clinical manifestations and upsurges in cases, hospitalisation and death incidences at subnational levels. Triaging the unprecedented high volume of information challenged surveillance activities but was managed by collaborative information sharing. The evolution of PHI activities using multiple sources in WHO's response to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the future directions in which PHI methodologies could be developed and used.

Health consequences of drought in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region: hotspot areas and needed actions.

BACKGROUND: Over the past four decades, drought episodes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) of the of the World Health Organization (WHO) have gradually become more widespread, prolonged and frequent. We aimed to map hotspot countries and identified key strategic actions for health consequences. METHODS: We reviewed scientific literature and WHO EMR documentation on trends and patterns of the drought health consequences from 1990 through 2019. Extensive communication was also carried out with EMR WHO country offices to retrieve information on ongoing initiatives to face health consequences due to drought. An index score was developed to categorize countries according vulnerability factors towards drought. RESULTS: A series of complex health consequences are due to drought in EMR, including malnutrition, vector-borne diseases, and water-borne diseases. The index score indicated how Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia are "hotspots" due to poor population health status and access to basic sanitation as well as other elements such as food insecurity, displacement and conflicts/political instability. WHO country offices effort is towards enhancing access to water and sanitation and essential healthcare services including immunization and psychological support, strengthening disease surveillance and response, and risk communication. CONCLUSIONS: Drought-related health effects in the WHO EMR represent a public health emergency. Strengthening mitigation activities and additional tailored efforts are urgently needed to overcome context-specific gaps and weaknesses, with specific focus on financing, accountability and enhanced data availability.

Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

Strengthening event-based surveillance (EBS): a case study from Afghanistan.

The sustained instability in Afghanistan, along with ongoing disease outbreaks and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has significantly affected the country.During the COVID-19 pandemic, the country's detection and response capacities faced challenges. Case identification was done in all health facilities from primary to tertiary levels but neglected cases at the community level, resulting in undetected and uncontrolled transmission from communities. This emphasizes a missed opportunity for early detection that Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) could have facilitated.Therefore, Afghanistan planned to strengthen the EBS component of the national public health surveillance system to enhance the capacity for the rapid detection and response to infectious disease outbreaks, including COVID-19 and other emerging diseases. This effort was undertaken to promptly mitigate the impact of such outbreaks.We conducted a landscape assessment of Afghanistan's public health surveillance system to identify the best way to enhance EBS, and then we crafted an implementation work plan. The work plan included the following steps: establishing an EBS multisectoral coordination and working group, identifying EBS information sources, prioritizing public health events of importance, defining signals, establishing reporting mechanisms, and developing standard operating procedures and training guides.EBS is currently being piloted in seven provinces in Afghanistan. The lessons learned from the pilot phase will support its overall expansion throughout the country.

Achieving integrated disease surveillance in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Access to reliable and timely information is key for healthcare decision-making at the regional, national and sub-national levels. However, lack of access to such information hampers to progress towards achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), as indicated in the Regional Progress Report on Health-Related Sustainable Development Goals.

Baseline Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Specific Antibodies in Hot Spot Areas of Great Tunis, up to 3 Months Post Disease Onset in Tunisia.

The extent of the SARS-CoV-2 circulation and the COVID-19 epidemic in Tunisia three months after virus circulation was unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection among household contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases living in Hot spot areas of Great Tunis, Tunisia by estimating the seroprevalence of antibodies anti SARS-CoV-2 and to identify factors associated to seroprevalence at the first stage of the pandemic in order to guide decision making and to constitute a baseline for further longitudinal analysis of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2. The National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases (ONMNE), Ministry of Health Tunisia (MoH), with the support of the Office of the World Health Organization Representative in Tunisia and the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO)), conducted a household cross-sectional survey on April 2020 in Great Tunis (Tunis, Ariana, Manouba and Ben Arous). The study was based on the WHO seroepidemiological investigation protocol for SARS-CoV-2 infection. SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies (IgG and IgM) were qualitatively detected using a lateral immunoassay that detect SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and administered by the interviewers. The included subjects were confirmed COVID-19 cases and their households contacts resided in hot spot areas (cumulative incidence rate ≥ 10 cases/100,000 inhabitants) of Great Tunis. Results: In total, 1165 subjects were enrolled: 116 confirmed COVID-19 cases (43 active cases and 73 convalescents cases) and 1049 household contacts resided in 291 households. The median age of participants was 39.0 with 31 years' interquartile range (Min = 8 months; Max = 96 years). The sex ratio (M/F) was 0.98. Twenty-nine per cent of participants resided in Tunis. The global crude seroprevalence among household contacts was 2.5% (26/1049); 95% CI 1.6-3.6%, 4.8%; 95% CI 2.3-8.7% in Ariana governorate and 0.3%; 95% CI 0.01%-1.8% in Manouba governorate. In multivariate analysis, the associated factors independently related to seroprevalence were age ≥25 years (aOR = 5.1; 95% CI 1.2-22.0), history of travel outside Tunisia since January 2020 (aOR = 4.6; 95% CI 1.7-12.9), symptomatic illness in the previous four months (aOR = 3.5; 95% CI 1.4-9.0) and governorate of residence (p = 0.02). The low seroprevalence estimated among household contacts in Great Tunis reflect the effect of public health measures early taken (national lockdown, borders closed, remote work), the respect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the efficacy of COVID-19 contact-tracing and case management at the first stage of the pandemic in Tunisia.