The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

COVID-19 hospitalization risk after outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use, January to August 2022, North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: In the USA, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is authorized for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients at least 12 years of age, at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on COVID-19 hospitalization risk in a US healthcare system. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study using electronic health records among outpatients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test between January and August 2022. We evaluated the association of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy with time to hospitalization by estimating adjusted HRs and assessed the impact of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on predicted COVID-19 hospitalizations using machine-learning methods. RESULTS: Among 44 671 patients, 4948 (11%) received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 201 (0.4%) were hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients were more likely to be older, white, vaccinated, have comorbidities and reside in areas with higher average socioeconomic status. The 28 day cumulative incidence of hospitalization was 0.06% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.17%) among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients and 0.52% (95% CI: 0.46%-0.60%) among non-recipients. For nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus no therapy, the age-adjusted HR was 0.08 (95% CI: 0.03-0.26); the fully adjusted HR was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.05-0.50). In the machine-learning model, the primary features reducing predicted hospitalization risk were nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, younger age, vaccination, female gender and residence in a higher socioeconomic status area. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 hospitalization risk was reduced by 84% among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients in a large, diverse healthcare system during the Omicron wave. These results suggest that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir remained highly effective in a setting substantially different than the original clinical trials.

Association of Alcohol Use with COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalization Among People Living with HIV in the United States, 2020.

Alcohol use was associated with elevated COVID-19 risk in the general population. People with HIV (PWH) have high prevalences of alcohol use. To evaluate the effect of alcohol use on COVID-19 risks among PWH, we estimated the risk of COVID-19 diagnosis and COVID-19-related hospitalization among PWH in routine care at 8 HIV primary care centers that contributed data to the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort according to their alcohol use just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The CNICS data repository includes demographic characteristics, clinical diagnoses, and laboratory test results from electronic medical records and other sources. Alcohol use, substance use, and mental health symptoms were self-reported on tablet-based standardized surveys. Alcohol use was categorized according to standard, sex-specific Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Consumption instrument cut-offs. We followed 5,496 PWH (79% male, 48% Black race, median age = 53 years) from March 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020. Relative to PWH with no baseline alcohol use, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of COVID-19 diagnosis was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78, 1.51) for lower-risk drinking and 1.19 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.73) for unhealthy drinking. The aHR of COVID-19-related hospitalization was 0.82 (95%CI: 0.33, 1.99) for lower-risk drinking and 1.25 (95%CI: 0.50, 3.09) for unhealthy drinking. Results were not modified by recent cocaine or non-prescribed opioid use, depressive symptoms, or diagnoses of alcohol use disorder. The study suggested a slightly increased, but not statistically significant risk of COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization associated with unhealthy alcohol use.

"I Feel Like I Don't Even Have HIV Anymore"-Facilitators, Barriers, and Experience regarding Use of Long-Acting Injectable Antiretroviral Therapy Among Persons with HIV in North Carolina.

As access to long-acting injectable antiretroviral therapy (LAI ART) expands, understanding patient perceptions and experiences around LAI should inform equitable scale-up and effective implementation strategies. This study used qualitative research design relying on semi-structured interviews conducted among persons with HIV (PWH) who were either virally suppressed on oral treatment (n = 11) or had received at least one dose of injectables (n = 7). Approximately half of participants identified as male (10/18) and most identified as African American (17/18). Among participants on oral ART, many described the prospect of injectable treatment as likely convenient and discreet, relieving the stress of remembering to take daily pill. Nearly all had heard of LAI ART prior to the interview, often from television or internet commercials. Most were excited about less frequent dosing, though expressed concern about the logistics involved in coming to clinic every two months. Many expressed uncertainties regarding the relative effectiveness of LAI ART compared with oral therapy and were wary of potential pain related to injections. In contrast, all persons on LAI ART described injection-site soreness as manageable. In addition to acknowledging the convenience of every-two-month injections, some persons receiving LAI ART expressed relief by lifting the emotional stress of taking a daily-pill that reminded them of their HIV positive status. Emerging clinical trial data supports the individual and public health benefits of LAI ART, regardless of prior viral-suppression; our work adds to a growing body of literature demonstrating the potential psychological benefits associated with this novel treatment modality for PWH regardless of recent viral-suppression.

Efficacy of a Pain Self-Management Intervention Tailored to People With HIV: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Chronic pain is a common condition for which efficacious interventions tailored to highly affected populations are urgently needed. People with HIV have a high prevalence of chronic pain and share phenotypic similarities with other highly affected populations. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of a behavioral pain self-management intervention called Skills to Manage Pain (STOMP) compared to enhanced usual care (EUC). Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial included adults with HIV who experienced at least moderate chronic pain for 3 months or more. The study was set at the University of Alabama at Birmingham and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill large medical centers from August 2019 to September 2022. Intervention: STOMP combined 1-on-1 skill-building sessions delivered by staff interventionists with group sessions co-led by peer interventionists. The EUC control group received the STOMP manual without any 1-on-1 or group instructional sessions. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was pain severity and the impact of pain on function, measured by the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) summary score. The primary a priori hypothesis was that STOMP would be associated with a decreased BPI in people with HIV compared to EUC. Results: Among 407 individuals screened, 278 were randomized to STOMP intervention (n = 139) or EUC control group (n = 139). Among the 278 people with HIV who were randomized, the mean (SD) age was 53.5 (10.0) years; 126 (45.0%) identified as female, 146 (53.0%) identified as male, 6 (2.0%) identified as transgender female. Of the 6 possible 1-on-1 sessions, participants attended a mean (SD) of 2.9 (2.5) sessions. Of the 6 possible group sessions, participants attended a mean (SD) of 2.4 (2.1) sessions. Immediately after the intervention compared to EUC, STOMP was associated with a statistically significant mean difference for the primary outcome, BPI total score: -1.25 points (95% CI, -1.71 to -0.78 points; P < .001). Three months after the intervention, the mean difference in BPI total score remained statistically significant, favoring the STOMP intervention -0.62 points (95% CI, -1.09 to -0.14 points; P = .01). Conclusion and Relevance: The findings of this randomized clinical trial support the efficaciousness of STOMP as an intervention for chronic pain in people with HIV. Future research will include implementation studies and work to understand the optimal delivery of the intervention. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03692611.

Prevalence and Correlates of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Uptake and Hesitancy Among People With HIV Across the United States.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) have higher risk of COVID-19 mortality. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective among PWH, although vaccine hesitancy could limit the population-level impact. SETTING: From February 2021 to April 2022, PWH from 8 sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems completed a vaccine hesitancy instrument as part of routine care. METHODS: Participants were defined as vaccine hesitant if they had not received the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and would probably/definitely not receive it. We assessed factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy using logistic regression adjusted for demographics, unsuppressed viral load (VL > 200 copies/mL), month, and time on ART; using inverse probability weighting for survey nonresponse. RESULTS: Overall, 3288 PWH with a median age of 55 were included; 18% were female and 94% were virally suppressed. At the time of survey, 27% reported they had not received the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, and 9% (n = 279) reported vaccine hesitancy. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy included female sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-3.2), Black vs. White race (AOR 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.4), younger age (AOR 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.5), and unsuppressed VL (AOR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.3 to 3.0). CONCLUSION: Overall, over one-quarter of PWH in this multisite cohort were unvaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 when interviewed February 21-April 22. Vaccine hesitancy was reported by approximately 9% of PWH and was higher among women, Black PWH, younger PWH, PWH with unsuppressed VL, and those in the South/Midwest. Renewed efforts are needed to address concerns of PWH about vaccinations against COVID-19 as the pandemic evolves, and vaccines in general, given the potential for future pandemics.

Differences in internalized HIV stigma across subpopulations of people with HIV in care across the United States.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which subgroups of people with HIV (PWH) carry the greatest burden of internalized HIV stigma (IHS), which may be important to care provision and interventions. METHODS: PWH in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) longitudinal, US-based, multisite, clinical care cohort completed tablet-based assessments during clinic visits including a four-item, Likert scale (low 1-5 high), IHS instrument. Associations between sociodemographic characteristics and IHS scores were assessed in adjusted linear regression models. RESULTS: Twelve thousand six hundred and fifty-six PWH completed the IHS assessment at least once from February 2016 to November 2022, providing 28 559 IHS assessments. At baseline IHS assessment, the mean age was 49 years, 41% reported White, 38% Black/African American, and 16% Latine race/ethnicity, and 80% were cisgender men. The mean IHS score was 2.04, with all subgroups represented among those endorsing IHS. In regression analyses, younger PWH and those in care fewer years had higher IHS scores. In addition, cisgender women vs. cisgender men, PWH residing in the West vs. the Southeast, and those with sexual identities other than gay/lesbian had higher IHS scores. Compared with White-identifying PWH, those who identified with Black/African American or Latine race/ethnicity had lower IHS scores. Age stratification revealed patterns related to age category, including specific age-related differences by gender, geographic region and race/ethnicity. DISCUSSION: IHS is prevalent among PWH, with differential burden by subgroups of PWH. These findings highlight the benefits of routine screening for IHS and suggest the need for targeting/tailoring interventions to reduce IHS among PWH.

Sex Differences in the Risk of Stroke Associated With Traditional and Non-Traditional Factors in a US Cohort of People With HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although stroke risk associated with HIV may be greater for women than men, little is known about whether the impact of different factors on cerebrovascular risk varies by sex in people with HIV (PWH) and contributes to stroke risk disparities in this population. The primary objective of this study was to examine whether sex modifies the effect of demographics, cardiometabolic factors, health-related behaviors, and HIV-specific variables on stroke risk in PWH from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we analyzed data from clinical encounters for PWH followed at 5 CNICS sites from approximately 2005 to 2020. All potential stroke events were adjudicated by neurologists. Patient-reported outcomes collected at clinic visits, including substance use and depression, were also available. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine whether sex modified the association of predictors of interest with incident stroke. RESULTS: Among 13,573 PWH (19% female sex at birth, mean age 44 years, mean follow-up 5.6 years), female sex was associated with a higher risk of stroke only among individuals aged 50 years or younger (hazard ratio [HR] 2.01 at age 40 [1.25-3.21] vs HR 0.60 at age 60 [0.34-1.06]; p = 0.001 for the interaction). Younger female participants who developed a stroke were more likely to have treated hypertension, a higher cardiovascular risk score, and detectable HIV than younger male participants whereas these factors were comparable by sex among older participants who developed a stroke. Sex modified the effect of detectable HIV (HR 4.66 for female participants [2.48-8.74] vs HR 1.30 for male participants [0.83-2.03]; p = 0.001 for the interaction), methamphetamine use (HR 4.78 for female participants [1.47-15.56] vs HR 1.19 for male participants [0.62-2.29]; p = 0.04 for the interaction), and treated hypertension (HR 3.44 for female participants [1.74-6.81] vs HR 1.66 for male participants [1.14-2.41]; p = 0.06 for the interaction) on stroke risk. DISCUSSION: Younger female participants with HIV were at elevated cerebrovascular risk compared with younger male participants. Several risk factors had a greater adverse effect on stroke risk in female participants than in male participants, including HIV viremia, methamphetamine use, and treated hypertension. These findings underscore the importance of a personalized approach to predict and prevent cerebrovascular risk among PWH.

Evaluating the Sick Quitting Hypothesis for Frailty Status and Reducing Alcohol Use Among People With HIV in a Longitudinal Clinical Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: "Sick quitting," a phenomenon describing reductions in alcohol consumption following poor health, may explain observations that alcohol appears protective for frailty risk. We examined associations between frailty and reductions in drinking frequency among people with HIV (PWH). At six Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) sites between January 2012 and August 2021, we assessed whether frailty, measured through validated modified frailty phenotype, precedes reductions in drinking frequency. We associated time-updated frailty with quitting and reducing frequency of any drinking and heavy episodic drinking (HED), adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics in Cox models. Among 5,654 PWH reporting drinking, 60% reported >monthly drinking and 18% reported ≥monthly HED. Over an average of 5.4 years, frail PWH had greater probabilities of quitting (HR: 1.56, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] [1.13-2.15]) and reducing (HR: 1.35, 95% CI [1.13-1.62]) drinking frequency, as well as reducing HED frequency (HR: 1.58, 95% CI [1.20-2.09]) versus robust PWH. Sick quitting likely confounds the association between alcohol use and frailty risk, requiring investigation for control.