Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Does expanding wild venison consumption substitute livestock meat consumption? Evidence from the demand systems analysis of meat products in Hokkaido, Japan.

In many countries, growing deer populations cause environmental, economic, and traffic safety problems. This study sheds light on the potential implications of expanding the consumption of venison from hunted wild deer through deer population management efforts. It focuses on changes in environmental impacts resulting from changes in the demand for livestock meat due to increased consumption of wild venison. We analyzed the demand system between them using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model and scanner data from a grocery store chain in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan. The results show that wild venison is a substitute good for pork and lamb. By contrast, wild venison is a complementary good for imported and domestic beef. Based on the estimated demand system model, we conducted an environmental footprint analysis to estimate the changes in environmental impacts when venison consumption increased. This shows that the greenhouse gas, water, and land footprints would increase, indicating greater environmental impacts, under a scenario of expanded venison consumption. The results demonstrate that increased venison consumption does not necessarily reduce the net environmental impacts of meat consumption, which depends on the demand system for meat products and the environmental footprint intensities of the respective products.

Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario.

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary resources.

Social cost of mining-related lead (Pb) pollution in Kabwe, Zambia, and potential remediation measures.

Lead (Pb) pollution has been one of the major environmental problems of worldwide significance. It is a latent factor for several fatal illnesses, whereas the exposure to lead in early childhood causes a lifetime IQ loss. The social cost is the concept to aggregate various adverse effects in a single monetary unit, which is useful in describing the pollution problem and provides foundation for the design of interventions. However, the assessment of the social cost is scarce for developing countries. In this study, we focus on the lead pollution problem of a former mining town, Kabwe, Zambia, where mining wastes abandoned near residential areas has caused a critical pollution problem. We first investigated the social cost of lead pollution that future generations born in 2025-2049 would incur in their lifetime. As the channels of the social cost, we considered the lost income from the IQ loss and the lost lives from lead-related mortality. The results showed that the social cost would amount to 224-593 million USD (discounted to the present value). Our results can be considered conservative, lower bound estimates because we focused only on well-identified effects of lead, but the social cost was still substantial. Then we examined several engineering remediation measures. The results showed that the social cost can be reduced (the benefits of remediations) more than the costs of implementing remediation measures. This study is the first to investigate the social cost of mining-related lead pollution problem in developing countries. Our interdisciplinary approach utilises the micro-level economic, health and pollution data and integrates the techniques in economics, toxicology and engineering.

Managing uncertainties: the making of the IPCC's special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage.

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is a technology that receives growing recognition because of its extremely great in mitigating climate change. However, uncertainties concerning the viability of this approach exist. With this background, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report in 2005 assessing of CCS. This article discusses the compilation process of the report, based on information collected through interviews with key participants and document research, highlighting how CCS's key uncertainties were estimated in the face of two disparate needs: scientific rigor and policy relevance.

Study protocol: International joint research project 'climate change resilience of Indigenous socioecological systems' (RISE).

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic changes in the environment are increasingly threatening the sustainability of socioecological systems on a global scale. As stewards of the natural capital of over a quarter of the world's surface area, Indigenous Peoples (IPs), are at the frontline of these changes. Indigenous socioecological systems (ISES) are particularly exposed and sensitive to exogenous changes because of the intimate bounds of IPs with nature. Traditional food systems (TFS) represent one of the most prominent components of ISES, providing not only diverse and nutritious food but also critical socioeconomic, cultural, and spiritual assets. However, a proper understanding of how future climate change may compromise TFS through alterations of related human-nature interactions is still lacking. Climate change resilience of indigenous socioecological systems (RISE) is a new joint international project that aims to fill this gap in knowledge. METHODS AND DESIGN: RISE will use a comparative case study approach coupling on-site socioeconomic, nutritional, and ecological surveys of the target ISES of Sakha (Republic of Sakha, Russian Federation) and Karen (Kanchanaburi, Thailand) people with statistical models projecting future changes in the distribution and composition of traditional food species under contrasting climate change scenarios. The results presented as alternative narratives of future climate change impacts on TFS will be integrated into a risk assessment framework to explore potential vulnerabilities of ISES operating through altered TFS, and possible adaptation options through stakeholder consultation so that lessons learned can be applied in practice. DISCUSSION: By undertaking a comprehensive analysis of the socioeconomic and nutritional contributions of TFS toward the sustainability of ISES and projecting future changes under alternative climate change scenarios, RISE is strategically designed to deliver novel and robust science that will contribute towards the integration of Indigenous issues within climate change and sustainable agendas while generating a forum for discussion among Indigenous communities and relevant stakeholders. Its goal is to promote positive co-management and regional development through sustainability and climate change adaptation.

Dominance of the residential sector in Chinese black carbon emissions as identified from downwind atmospheric observations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Emissions of black carbon (BC) particles from anthropogenic and natural sources contribute to climate change and human health impacts. Therefore, they need to be accurately quantified to develop an effective mitigation strategy. Although the spread of the emission flux estimates for China have recently narrowed under the constraints of atmospheric observations, consensus has not been reached regarding the dominant emission sector. Here, we quantified the contribution of the residential sector, as 64% (44-82%) in 2019, using the response of the observed atmospheric concentration in the outflowing air during Feb-Mar 2020, with the prevalence of the COVID-19 pandemic and restricted human activities over China. In detail, the BC emission fluxes, estimated after removing effects from meteorological variability, dropped only slightly (- 18%) during Feb-Mar 2020 from the levels in the previous year for selected air masses of Chinese origin, suggesting the contributions from the transport and industry sectors (36%) were smaller than the rest from the residential sector (64%). Carbon monoxide (CO) behaved differently, with larger emission reductions (- 35%) in the period Feb-Mar 2020, suggesting dominance of non-residential (i.e., transport and industry) sectors, which contributed 70% (48-100%) emission during 2019. The estimated BC/CO emission ratio for these sectors will help to further constrain bottom-up emission inventories. We comprehensively provide a clear scientific evidence supporting mitigation policies targeting reduction in residential BC emissions from China by demonstrating the economic feasibility using marginal abatement cost curves.

Integrating economic measures of adaptation effectiveness into climate change interventions: A case study of irrigation development in Mwea, Kenya.

As climate change adaptation is becoming a recognized policy issue, the need is growing for quantitative economic evaluation of adaptation-related public investment, particularly in the context of climate finance. Funds are meant to be allocated not to any types of beneficial investments with or without climate change but to projects regarded as effective for climate change adaptation based on some metrics. But attempts at such project-specific evaluation of adaptation effects are few, in part because such assessments require an integration of various types of simulation analyses. Against this background, we conduct a case study of a Kenyan irrigation development project using a combination of downscaled climate data, runoff simulations, yield forecasting, and local socioeconomic projections to examine the effects of interventions specifically attributable to climate change adaptation, i.e., how much irrigation development can reduce the negative effects of climate change in the future. The results show that despite the uncertainties in precipitation trends, increased temperatures due to climate change have a general tendency to reduce rice yields, and that irrigation development will mitigate income impacts from the yield loss-for example, for the median scenario, the household income loss of 6% in 2050 due to climate change without irrigation development is flipped to become positive with the project. This means that the irrigation development project will likely be effective as a means for climate change adaptation.

Assessing the population-wide exposure to lead pollution in Kabwe, Zambia: an econometric estimation based on survey data.

This study quantitatively assessed the population-wide lead poisoning conditions in Kabwe, Zambia, a town with severe lead pollution. While existing data have reported concerning blood lead levels (BLLs) of residents in pollution hotspots, the data representing the entire population are lacking. Further, selection bias is a concern. Given the lack of compulsory testing schemes, BLLs have been observed from voluntary participants in blood sampling surveys, but such data can represent higher or lower BLLs than the population average because of factors simultaneously affecting participation and BLLs. To illustrate the lead poisoning conditions of the population, we expanded the focus of our surveys and then econometrically estimated the BLLs of individuals representing the population, including those not participating in blood sampling, using background geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information. The estimated population mean BLL was 11.9 µg/dL (11.6-12.1, 95% CI), lower than existing data because of our wide focus and correction of selection bias. However, the scale of lead poisoning remained immense and 74.9% of residents had BLLs greater than 5 µg/dL, the standard reference level for lead poisoning. Our estimates provide a deeper understanding of the problem and a foundation for policy intervention designs.

Current trends of blood lead levels, distribution patterns and exposure variations among household members in Kabwe, Zambia.

Childhood lead (Pb) poisoning has devastating effects on neurodevelopment and causes overt clinical signs including convulsions and coma. Health effects including hypertension and various reproductive problems have been reported in adults. Historical Pb mining in Zambia's Kabwe town left a legacy of environmental pollution and childhood Pb poisoning. The current study aimed at establishing the extent of Pb poisoning and exposure differences among family members in Kabwe as well as determining populations at risk and identify children eligible for chelation therapy. Blood samples were collected in July and August 2017 from 1190 household members and Pb was measured using a portable LeadCare-II analyser. Participants included 291 younger children (3-months to 3-years-old), 271 older children (4-9-years-old), 412 mothers and 216 fathers from 13 townships with diverse levels of Pb contamination. The Blood Lead Levels (BLL) ranged from 1.65 to 162  µg/dL, with residents from Kasanda (mean 45.7  µg/dL) recording the highest BLL while Hamududu residents recorded the lowest (mean 3.3  µg/dL). Of the total number of children sampled (n = 562), 23% exceeded the 45  µg/dL, the threshold required for chelation therapy. A few children (5) exceeded the 100  µg/dL whereas none of the parents exceeded the 100  µg/dL value. Children had higher BLL than parents, with peak BLL-recorded at the age of 2-years-old. Lead exposure differences in Kabwe were attributed to distance and direction from the mine, with younger children at highest risk. Exposure levels in parents were equally alarming. For prompt diagnosis and treatment, a portable point-of-care devise such as a LeadCare-II would be preferable in Kabwe.