[Application of moving epidemic method in establishing epidemic intensity threshold of hand, foot, and mouth disease in southern China].

Objective: To evaluate the incidence intensity of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in 2018/2019 season in southern China by Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), and compare the intensity among provinces, so as to provide basis for optimizing the allocation of public health resources. Methods: The weekly incidence data of HFMD of children under 5 years old in 15 provinces of southern China from March 1, 2012 to February 28, 2019 were collected from Disease Surveillance Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemic intensity threshold of each province in southern China during this period was calculated and evaluated by MEM. Results: In the first incidence peak of 2018/2019 HFMD season, in 15 provinces in the south China, 6 provinces (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan and Yunnan) reported very high incidence rates in children under 5 years old while Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan provinces had low incidence level. In the second incidence peak, the incidences in 6 provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Sichuan and Yunnan) reached very high levels. The incidences in remaining provinces also reached medium or high levels. In most provinces, the thresholds in the first incidence peak were higher than those in the second incidence peak, but Chongqing and Sichuan were different. The results of model validation showed that the sensitivity and specificity of MEM were higher than 70% except for Hainan, Chongqing and Yunnan. Conclusions: For southern provinces with two incidence peaks in HFMD season, MEM can be used to determine the epidemic intensity thresholds of different incidence peaks by dividing the disease season to analyze the incidence intensity of HFMD in different stages. The epidemic intensity threshold established by MEM integrates the historical data, and the province (city) with extremely high epidemic level identified represents that the province (city) has an abnormal increase compared with the historical incidence level, which requires more attention from all areas and timely implementation of prevention and control measures.

[Epidemiological characteristics of severe cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-2018].

Objective: To characterize the epidemiology of severe hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China from 2008 to 2018 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of severe HFMD. Methods: The incidence data of severe HFMD cases from 2008 to 2018 were collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze distributions, pathogen constituent and change of severe HFMD. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of severity rate, proportion of severe cases and severe fatality rate. Results: From 2008 to 2018, a total of 157 065 cases of severe HFMD were reported in China, with an average annual case-severity rate of 1.05/100 000, a severe case proportion of 0.76% and a severity-fatality rate of 2.34%. The severity rate and the proportion of severe cases showed a downward trend after 2010, and severe fatality rate decreased significantly after 2014. The severe cases mainly occurred in infants aged ≤3 years (91.47%), more boys were affected than girls (1.78∶1). The median age of severe HFMD cases caused by EV-A71 was highest (1.99 years) and increased year by year, other enterovirus infection cases accounted for a higher proportion in infants aged ≤1 year (66.56%). The incidence peak occurred during April-July, other enteroviruses replaced EV-A71 as the predominant serotype in 2018 (61.97%). The incidence of severe HFMD were high in some provinces in southwestern, central and eastern China. Conclusion: The overall severity rate, proportion of severe cases and severe fatality rate of HFMD in the mainland of China have shown a downward trend. The predominant pathogen in some provinces has changed from EV-A71 to other enteroviruses. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of HFMD in key population, high incidence seasons and areas and carry out the surveillance of various pathogens of HFMD.

[Epidemiological characteristics of fatal cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children under 5 years old in China, 2008-2018].

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics and risk factors of fatal cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in children under 5 years old in China from 2008 to 2018, and provide evidence for the development of targeted prevention and control measures and reduction of the incidence of fatal HFMD cases. Methods: The incidence data of reported HFMD cases in China during 2008-2018 were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance Reporting System of China for the analyses on the demographic characteristics, spatial distribution, diagnosis or reporting and pathogen spectrum of the HFMD cases. Then the risk factors causing deaths were analyzed by using logistic regression model. Results: From 2008 to 2018, a total of 3 646 fatal cases of HFMD in children under 5 years old were reported in China. There were more fatal HFMD cases in boys than in girls (1.82∶1), the death mainly occurred in age group 0 to 2 years (87.71%). Adjusted mortality rate of HFMD in children under 5 years old in China declined from 0.87 per 100 000 in 2010 to 0.11 per 100 000 in 2018 (APC=-23.20%). In the 2 523 laboratory-confirmed deaths, 2 323 (92.07%) were EV-A71 infections, but the constituents of CV-A16 and other enterovirus infections increased. The interval from onset to diagnosis M=2(P(25)-P(75):2-4)d. The interval from onset to death M=3(P(25)-P(75):2-4)d. Age between 0 and 1 years, EV-A71 infection, longer interval between onset and diagnosis, and living in rural area were the risk factors causing fatal HFMD cases. Conclusions: The number of the fatal cases, the rate of mortality and case fatality HFMD in China had shown downward trends since 2010. EV-A71 is still the main pathogen causing fatal cases, but we should pay more attention to gene pattern of the other enteroviruses except EV-A71 and CV-A16. To reduce the risk of the fatal cases we should strengthen the health education about the immunization of EV-A71 inactivated vaccines and reduce the interval from onset to diagnosis in young children in western provinces and rural areas.