Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling.

Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance.

Detecting Malaria Hotspots: A Comparison of Rapid Diagnostic Test, Microscopy, and Polymerase Chain Reaction.

Background: Malaria control strategies need to respond to geographical hotspots of transmission. Detection of hotspots depends on the sensitivity of the diagnostic tool used. Methods: We conducted cross-sectional surveys in 3 sites within Kilifi County, Kenya, that had variable transmission intensities. Rapid diagnostic test (RDT), microscopy, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were used to detect asymptomatic parasitemia, and hotspots were detected using the spatial scan statistic. Results: Eight thousand five hundred eighty-one study participants were surveyed in 3 sites. There were statistically significant malaria hotspots by RDT, microscopy, and PCR for all sites except by microscopy in 1 low transmission site. Pooled data analysis of hotspots by PCR overlapped with hotspots by microscopy at a moderate setting but not at 2 lower transmission settings. However, variations in degree of overlap were noted when data were analyzed by year. Hotspots by RDT were predictive of PCR/microscopy at the moderate setting, but not at the 2 low transmission settings. We observed long-term stability of hotspots by PCR and microscopy but not RDT. Conclusion: Malaria control programs may consider PCR testing to guide asymptomatic malaria hotspot detection once the prevalence of infection falls.

Effect of transmission intensity on hotspots and micro-epidemiology of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission intensity is heterogeneous, complicating the implementation of malaria control interventions. We provide a description of the spatial micro-epidemiology of symptomatic malaria and asymptomatic parasitaemia in multiple sites. METHODS: We assembled data from 19 studies conducted between 1996 and 2015 in seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa with homestead-level geospatial data. Data from each site were used to quantify spatial autocorrelation and examine the temporal stability of hotspots. Parameters from these analyses were examined to identify trends over varying transmission intensity. RESULTS: Significant hotspots of malaria transmission were observed in most years and sites. The risk ratios of malaria within hotspots were highest at low malaria positive fractions (MPFs) and decreased with increasing MPF (p < 0.001). However, statistical significance of hotspots was lowest at extremely low and extremely high MPFs, with a peak in statistical significance at an MPF of ~0.3. In four sites with longitudinal data we noted temporal instability and variable negative correlations between MPF and average age of symptomatic malaria across all sites, suggesting varying degrees of temporal stability. CONCLUSIONS: We observed geographical micro-variation in malaria transmission at sites with a variety of transmission intensities across sub-Saharan Africa. Hotspots are marked at lower transmission intensity, but it becomes difficult to show statistical significance when cases are sparse at very low transmission intensity. Given the predictability with which hotspots occur as transmission intensity falls, malaria control programmes should have a low threshold for responding to apparent clustering of cases.

Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Encouraging progress has been seen with reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in some parts of Africa. Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a longitudinal observational study of children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya and linked it to data on residence and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. This included data from 69,104 children aged from 3 mo to 13 y admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014. The variation in malaria slide positivity among admissions was examined in logistic regression models using the following predictors: location of the residence, calendar time, the child's age, ITN use, and the enhanced vegetation index (a proxy for soil moisture). The proportion of malaria slide-positive admissions declined from 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58) in 1998 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06-0.08) in 2009 but then increased again through to 0.24 (95% CI 0.22-0.25) in 2014. Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to <0.1 as the prevalence of ITN use varied from 20% to 80%. In this observational analysis, we were unable to determine the cause of the decline in malaria between 1998 and 2009, which pre-dated the dramatic scale-up in ITN distribution and use. CONCLUSION: Following a period of reduced transmission, a cohort of older children emerged who have increased susceptibility to malaria. Further reductions in malaria transmission are needed to mitigate the increasing burden among older children, and universal ITN coverage is a promising strategy to achieve this goal.

Sex-specific induction of CYP6 cytochrome P450 genes in cadmium and lead tolerant Anopheles gambiae.

BACKGROUND: Anopheles gambiae, one of the main Afro-tropical mosquito vector of malaria, has adapted to heavy metals in its natural habitat, and developed resistance to most conventional insecticides. Investigations were conducted to establish an association between tolerance to cadmium or lead-heavy metals, and expression of specific genes for cytochrome p450 enzymes associated with pyrethroid resistance in the mosquito. METHODS: Juvenile aquatic stages of the mosquito were selected for tolerance to cadmiun or lead through chronic exposure of the stages to maximum acceptable toxicant concentrations (MATCs) of the metals. Using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), three replicates each of male or female cadmium or lead-tolerant individuals and relevant controls were separately screened for expression of CYP6M2, CYP6P3 and CYP6Z1 genes. The variance in expression levels of the genes amongst the treatments was compared by ANOVA statistical tool. RESULTS: Expressions of all the genes were significantly lower (P <0.05) in females than in males. Within gender, there 1.3 - 2.3 or 3.1-4.2-fold reduction in expression of the genes in cadmium or lead selected than respective control populations. Expression of all the classes of gene was elevated in cadmium selected female populations relative to their respective controls. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that tolerance to cadmium or lead in the mosquito can influence response in cytochrome p450 genes associated with metabolism of pyrethroids in the mosquito in a sex-specific manner. This can, in turn, affect sensitivity of the mosquito to pyrethroids and other xenobiotics associated with these genes, with potential implications in mosquito vector control operations.

Bionomics and ecology of Anopheles merus along the East and Southern Africa coast.

Malaria transmission persists despite the scale-up of interventions such as long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Understanding the entomological drivers of transmission is key for the design of effective and sustainable tools to address the challenge. Recent research findings indicate a shift in vector populations from the notorious Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) as a dominant vector to other species as one of the factors contributing to the persistence of malaria transmission. However, there are gaps in the literature regarding the minor vector species which are increasingly taking a lead role in malaria transmission. Currently, minor malaria vectors have behavioural plasticity, which allows their evasion of vector control tools currently in use. To address this, we have reviewed the role of Anopheles merus, a saltwater mosquito species that is becoming an important vector of malaria transmission along the East and Southern African coast. We performed a literature review from PubMed and Google Scholar and reviewed over 50 publications relating to An. merus's bionomics, taxonomy, spatial-temporal distribution and role in malaria transmission. We found that An. merus is an important vector of malaria and that it contributes to residual malaria transmission because of its exophilic tendencies, insecticide resistance and densities that peak during the dry seasons as the freshwater mosquitoes decline. Spatial and temporal studies have also shown that this species has increased its geographical range, densities and vectorial capacity over time. In this review, we highlight the resting behaviour and breeding habitats of this mosquito, which could be targeted for surveillance studies and control interventions.

A review of the frequencies of Plasmodium falciparum Kelch 13 artemisinin resistance mutations in Africa.

Artemisinin resistance (AR) emerged in South East Asia 13 years ago and the identification of the resistance conferring molecular marker, Plasmodium falciparum Kelch 13 (Pfk13), 7 years ago has provided an invaluable tool for monitoring AR in malaria endemic countries. Molecular Pfk13 surveillance revealed the resistance foci in the Greater Mekong Subregion, an independent emergence in Guyana, South America, and a low frequency of mutations in Africa. The recent identification of the R561H Pfk13 AR associated mutation in Tanzania, Uganda and in Rwanda, where it has been associated with delayed parasite clearance, should be a concern for the continent. In this review, we provide a summary of Pfk13 resistance associated propeller domain mutation frequencies across Africa from 2012 to 2020, to examine how many other countries have identified these mutations. Only four African countries reported a recent identification of the M476I, P553L, R561H, P574L, C580Y and A675V Pfk13 mutations at low frequencies and with no reports of clinical treatment failure, except for Rwanda. These mutations present a threat to malaria control across the continent, since the greatest burden of malaria remains in Africa. A rise in the frequency of these mutations and their spread would reverse the gains made in the reduction of malaria over the last 20 years, given the lack of new antimalarial treatments in the event artemisinin-based combination therapies fail. The review highlights the frequency of Pfk13 propeller domain mutations across Africa, providing an up-to-date perspective of Pfk13 mutations, and appeals for an urgent and concerted effort to monitoring antimalarial resistance markers in Africa and the efficacy of antimalarials by re-establishing sentinel surveillance systems.

Few Plasmodium falciparum merozoite ligand and erythrocyte receptor pairs show evidence of balancing selection.

Erythrocyte surface proteins have been identified as receptors of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite proteins. The ligand-receptor interactions enable the parasite to invade human erythrocytes, initiating the clinical symptoms of malaria. These interactions are likely to have had an evolutionary impact on the genes that encode the ligand and receptor proteins. We used sequence data from Kilifi, Kenya to detect departures from neutrality in a paired analysis of P. falciparum merozoite ligands and their erythrocyte receptor genes from the same population. We genotyped parasite and human DNA obtained from 93 individuals with severe malaria. We examined six merozoite ligands EBA175, EBL1, EBA140, MSP1, Rh4 and Rh5, and their corresponding erythrocyte receptors, glycophorin (Gyp) A, GypB, GypC, band 3, complement receptor (CR) 1 and basigin, focusing on the regions involved in the ligand-receptor interactions. Positive Tajima's D values (>1) were observed only in the MSP1 C-terminal region and EBA175 region II, while negative values (<-1) were observed in EBL-1 region II, Rh4, basigin exons 3 and 5, CR1 exon 5, Gyp B exons 2, 3 and 4 and Gyp C exon 2. Additionally, ebl-1 region II and basigin exon 3 showed extreme negative values in all three tests, Tajima's D, Fu & Li D* and F*, ≤ - 2. A large majority of the erythrocyte receptor and merozoite genes have a negative Tajima's D even when compared with previously published whole genome data. Thus, highlighting EBA175 region II and MSP1-33, as outlier genes with a positive Tajima's D (>1). Both these genes contain multiple polymorphisms, which in the case of EBA175 may counteract receptor polymorphisms and/or evade host immune responses and in MSP1 the polymorphisms may primarily evade host immune responses.

Investigating the drivers of the spatio-temporal patterns of genetic differences between Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections in Kilifi County, Kenya.

Knowledge of how malaria infections spread locally is important both for the design of targeted interventions aiming to interrupt malaria transmission and the design of trials to assess the interventions. A previous analysis of 1602 genotyped Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Kilifi, Kenya collected over 12 years found an interaction between time and geographic distance: the mean number of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences was lower for pairs of infections which were both a shorter time interval and shorter geographic distance apart. We determine whether the empiric pattern could be reproduced by a simple model, and what mean geographic distances between parent and offspring infections and hypotheses about genotype-specific immunity or a limit on the number of infections would be consistent with the data. We developed an individual-based stochastic simulation model of households, people and infections. We parameterized the model for the total number of infections, and population and household density observed in Kilifi. The acquisition of new infections, mutation, recombination, geographic location and clearance were included. We fit the model to the observed numbers of SNP differences between pairs of parasite genotypes. The patterns observed in the empiric data could be reproduced. Although we cannot rule out genotype-specific immunity or a limit on the number of infections per individual, they are not necessary to account for the observed patterns. The mean geographic distance between parent and offspring malaria infections for the base model was 0.5 km (95% CI 0.3-1.5), for a distribution with 68% of distances shorter than the mean. Very short mean distances did not fit well, but mixtures of distributions were also consistent with the data. For a pathogen which undergoes meiosis in a setting with moderate transmission and a low coverage of infections, analytic methods are limited but an individual-based model can be used with genotyping data to estimate parameter values and investigate hypotheses about underlying processes.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya.

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained significant modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified significant hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people are indoor was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoor. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were indoor was consistently high, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya.

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs. Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement. Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied. Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then "one-off" targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa.

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites. Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models. Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs. Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes. Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

Changes in genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum human malaria parasite following withdrawal of chloroquine in Tiwi, Kenya.

Chloroquine (CQ) drug was withdrawn in 1998 as a first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Kenya. This was in response to resistance to the drug in Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. Investigations were conducted to determine prevalence of CQ resistance genotypes in the parasites in Tiwi, a malaria endemic town in Kenya, before and about a decade after the withdrawal of the drug. Blood samples were collected and spotted on filter papers in 1999 and 2008 from 75 and 77 out-patients respectively with uncomplicated malaria. The sampling was conducted using finger pricking technique. DNA was extracted from individual spots in the papers and screened for the presence of P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (Pfcrt) and multi drug resistance (Pfmdr-1) markers using nested PCR. Nature of mutations (haplotypes) in the Pfcrt and Pfmdr-1 markers in the samples were confirmed using dot blot hybridization technique. Changes in pattern of CQ resistance in the parasite samples in 1999 and 2008 were assessed by Chi Square test. There was a significant (P<0.05) reduction in CQ resistant genotypes of the parasite between 1999 and 2008. Pfmdr and Pfcrt CQ resistant genotypes in 2008 reduced to 54.10 and 63.64% respectively, from 75.39 and 88.0% respectively in 1999. This reduction was accompanied by emergence of Pfcrt specific CQ sensitive (IEK) and intermediate/partially CQ resistant (MET) haplotypes. Results suggest significant reversal of the phenotype of the parasite from chloroquine resistant to wild/sensitive type. The novel haplotypes indicates transitional phase of the parasite to the wild type. Current prevalence of chloroquine resistant genotype is definitely above the threshold for efficacious re-introduction of chloroquine for treatment of malaria in Tiwi.