Evaluation of malaria outbreak detection methods, Uganda, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Malaria outbreaks are detected by applying the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended thresholds (the less sensitive 75th percentile or mean + 2 standard deviations [2SD] for medium-to high-transmission areas, and the more sensitive cumulative sum [C-SUM] method for low and very low-transmission areas). During 2022, > 50% of districts in Uganda were in an epidemic mode according to the 75th percentile method used, resulting in a need to restrict national response to districts with the highest rates of complicated malaria. The three threshold approaches were evaluated to compare their outbreak-signaling outputs and help identify prioritization approaches and method appropriateness across Uganda. METHODS: The three methods were applied as well as adjusted approaches (85th percentile and C-SUM + 2SD) for all weeks in 2022 for 16 districts with good reporting rates ( ≥ 80%). Districts were selected from regions originally categorized as very low, low, medium, and high transmission; district thresholds were calculated based on 2017-2021 data and re-categorized them for this analysis. RESULTS: Using district-level data to categorize transmission levels resulted in re-categorization of 8/16 districts from their original transmission level categories. In all districts, more outbreak weeks were detected by the 75th percentile than the mean + 2SD method (p < 0.001). For all 9 very low or low-transmission districts, the number of outbreak weeks detected by C-SUM were similar to those detected by the 75th percentile. On adjustment of the 75th percentile method to the 85th percentile, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreak weeks detected for medium and low transmission districts. The number of outbreak weeks detected by C-SUM + 2SD was similar to those detected by the mean + 2SD method for all districts across all transmission intensities. CONCLUSION: District data may be more appropriate than regional data to categorize malaria transmission and choose epidemic threshold approaches. The 75th percentile method, meant for medium- to high-transmission areas, was as sensitive as C-SUM for low- and very low-transmission areas. For medium and high-transmission areas, more outbreak weeks were detected with the 75th percentile than the mean + 2SD method. Using the 75th percentile method for outbreak detection in all areas and the mean + 2SD for prioritization of medium- and high-transmission areas in response may be helpful.

LLIN evaluation in Uganda project (LLINEUP2): association between housing construction and malaria burden in 32 districts.

BACKGROUND: Well-built housing limits mosquito entry and can reduce malaria transmission. The association between community-level housing and malaria burden in Uganda was assessed using data from randomly selected households near 64 health facilities in 32 districts. METHODS: Houses were classified as 'improved' (synthetic walls and roofs, eaves closed or absent) or 'less-improved' (all other construction). Associations between housing and parasitaemia were made using mixed effects logistic regression (individual-level) and multivariable fractional response logistic regression (community-level), and between housing and malaria incidence using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: Between November 2021 and March 2022, 4.893 children aged 2-10 years were enrolled from 3.518 houses; of these, 1.389 (39.5%) were classified as improved. Children living in improved houses had 58% lower odds (adjusted odds ratio = 0.42, 95% CI 0.33-0.53, p < 0.0001) of parasitaemia than children living in less-improved houses. Communities with > 67% of houses improved had a 63% lower parasite prevalence (adjusted prevalence ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.70, p < 0.0021) and 60% lower malaria incidence (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.36-0.44, p < 0.0001) compared to communities with < 39% of houses improved. CONCLUSIONS: Improved housing was strongly associated with lower malaria burden across a range of settings in Uganda and should be utilized for malaria control.

Assessing availability, prices, and market share of quality-assured malaria ACT and RDT in the private retail sector in Nigeria and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 50% of suspected malaria cases in sub-Saharan Africa first seek care in the private sector, especially in private medicine retail outlets. Quality of care in these outlets is generally unknown but considered poor with many patients not receiving a confirmatory diagnosis or the recommended first-line artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). In 2010, a subsidy pilot scheme, the Affordable Medicines Facility malaria, was introduced to crowd out the use of monotherapies in favour of WHO-pre-qualified artemisinin-based combinations (WHO-PQ-ACTs) in the private health sector. The scheme improved the availability, market share, and cost of WHO-PQ-ACTs in countries like Nigeria and Uganda, but in 2018, the subsidies were halted in Nigeria and significantly reduced in Uganda. This paper presents findings from six retail audit surveys conducted from 2014 to 2021 in Nigeria and Uganda to assess whether the impact of subsidies on the price, availability, and market share of artemisinin-based combinations has been sustained after the subsidies were reduced or discontinued. METHODS: Six independent retail audits were conducted in private medicine retail outlets, including pharmacies, drug shops, and clinics in Nigeria (2016, 2018, 2021), and Uganda (2014, 2019, 2020) to assess the availability, price, and market share of anti-malarials, including WHO-PQ-ACTs and non-WHO-PQ-ACTs, and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). RESULTS: Between 2016 and 2021, there was a 57% decrease in WHO-PQ-ACT availability in Nigeria and a 9% decrease in Uganda. During the same period, non-WHO-PQ-ACT availability increased in Nigeria by 41% and by 34% in Uganda. The price of WHO-PQ-ACTs increased by 42% in Nigeria to $0.68 and increased in Uganda by 24% to $0.95. The price of non-WHO-PQ-ACTs decreased in Nigeria by 26% to $1.08 and decreased in Uganda by 64% to $1.23. There was a 76% decrease in the market share of WHO-PQ-ACTs in Nigeria and a 17% decrease in Uganda. Malaria RDT availability remained low throughout. CONCLUSION: With the reduction or termination of subsidies for WHO-PQ-ACTs in Uganda and Nigeria, retail prices have increased, and retail prices of non-WHO-PQ-ACTs decreased, likely contributing to a shift of higher availability and increased use of non-WHO-PQ-ACTs.

Risk factors for death among children with severe malaria, Ivukula sub-county, Namutumba district, Eastern Uganda, september 2021-february 2022.

BACKGROUND: In February 2022, the Ministry of Health received reports of more than 100 child deaths from a 'strange disease' in Namutumba District over a period of 6 months from politicians through the media. Preliminary investigations by the district rapid response team confirmed the strange disease to be severe malaria. The scope of severe malaria deaths was investigated, associated factors identified, and recommendations made for control measures to inform early malaria treatment strategies in Namutumba District. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in March 2022 in the most affected subcounty (Ivukula Subcounty) involving cases and controls. A case was defined as a death with a positive malaria test, fever and any of the following: convulsions, difficulty breathing, yellowing of eyes or palms, tea-coloured urine, anaemia (evidenced by pale eyes or palms, or clinically-identified in medical records), loss of consciousness, or reduced urine output (very little or no urine in a day) in a child ≤ 12 years from September 2021 to February 2022 in Ivukula Subcounty, Namutumba District. Controls were survivors with the same signs and symptoms, recruited in a 2:1 ratio with cases. Cases and controls were actively searched using a door-to-door approach with the help of community health workers. Caretakers were interviewed to obtain data on signs and symptoms, socio-demographic information, health-seeking behaviours and health system risk factors. Drugs and bloodstock status information was obtained from health workers using an interview guide. Factors associated with death were identified using multivariate logistic regression and thematic analysis for qualitative data. RESULTS: Among 46 cases, 29 (63%) were < 5 years, and 23 (50%) were female. Death among children with severe malaria was significantly associated with treatment non-completion (aOR = 9.7, 95%CI 1.8-53) and inability to receive blood transfusion for anaemic patients (aOR = 7.1, (95%CI 1.4-36). Healthcare workers reported that inability to reach referral sites due to transport costs, stockouts of anti-malarials and blood products at health facilities, and absence of integrated community case management of childhood illnesses (iCCM) contributed to deaths among children with severe malaria. CONCLUSION: Lack of access to anti-malarial treatment and to blood transfusions among anaemic patients due to stockouts were associated with severe malaria deaths among children ≤ 12 years in Ivukula Subcounty. Recommendations made were: accurate quantification of anti-malarials for health facilities, offering transport support to severe patients referred to higher-level facilities, and increasing access to blood products. Activation of iCCM could facilitate public health efforts against severe malaria in the district.

Mass distribution campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda: lessons learned.

BACKGROUND: Uganda implemented its third mass campaign to distribute long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This context necessitated modification of implementation guidelines. The mass campaign's objective was to ensure that at least 85% of the targeted population had access to LLINs. METHODS: Revised implementation guidelines were followed while conducting the LLIN distribution campaign. Lessons learned were captured from documented activities and reports. RESULTS: A total of 27,789,044 mosquito nets were distributed in 11,287,392 households, with an average of 5.1 persons per household. Household coverage of the LLIN distribution was 94.1%. The 2020/2021 campaign design was modified to follow COVID-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). These included using Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), e-platforms for training and briefing meetings, electronic data management systems and door-to-door household registration and distribution of LLINs. CONCLUSIONS: Campaign modifications due to the COVID-19 pandemic were effective in implementing mass distribution of LLINs despite the disruptions and restrictions. The campaign's net coverage far exceeded its objective. Electronic data management was critical in monitoring and reporting distribution activities.

A non-randomized controlled trial to assess the protective effect of SMC in the context of high parasite resistance in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, due to widespread prevalence of molecular markers associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and amodiaquine (AQ) resistance in east and southern Africa, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has not been used at scale in this region. This study assessed the protective effectiveness of monthly administration of SP + AQ (SPAQ) to children aged 3-59 months in Karamoja sub-region, Uganda, where parasite resistance is assumed to be high and malaria transmission is seasonal. METHODS: A two-arm quasi-experimental, open-label prospective non-randomized control trial (nRCT) was conducted in three districts. In two intervention districts, 85,000 children aged 3-59 months were targeted to receive monthly courses of SMC using SPAQ during the peak transmission season (May to September) 2021. A third district served as a control, where SMC was not implemented. Communities with comparable malaria attack rates were selected from the three districts, and households with at least one SMC-eligible child were purposively selected. A total cohort of 600 children (200 children per district) were selected and followed using passive surveillance for breakthrough confirmed malaria episodes during the five-month peak transmission season. Malaria incidence rate per person-months and number of malaria episodes among children in the two arms were compared. Kaplan-Meier failure estimates were used to compare the probability of a positive malaria test. Other factors that may influence malaria transmission and infection among children in the two arms were also assessed using multivariable cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The malaria incidence rate was 3.0 and 38.8 per 100 person-months in the intervention and control groups, respectively. In the intervention areas 90.0% (361/400) of children did not experience any malaria episodes during the study period, compared to 15% (29/200) in the control area. The incidence rate ratio was 0.078 (95% CI 0.063-0.096), which corresponds to a protective effectiveness of 92% (95% CI 90.0-94.0) among children in the intervention area. CONCLUSION: SMC using SPAQ provided high protective effect against malaria during the peak transmission season in children aged 3-59 months in the Karamoja sub-region of Uganda.

Impact of population based indoor residual spraying with and without mass drug administration with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine on malaria prevalence in a high transmission setting: a quasi-experimental controlled before-and-after trial in northeastern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Declines in malaria burden in Uganda have slowed. Modelling predicts that indoor residual spraying (IRS) and mass drug administration (MDA), when co-timed, have synergistic impact. This study investigated additional protective impact of population-based MDA on malaria prevalence, if any, when added to IRS, as compared with IRS alone and with standard of care (SOC). METHODS: The 32-month quasi-experimental controlled before-and-after trial enrolled an open cohort of residents (46,765 individuals, 1st enumeration and 52,133, 4th enumeration) of Katakwi District in northeastern Uganda. Consented participants were assigned to three arms based on residential subcounty at study start: MDA+IRS, IRS, SOC. IRS with pirimiphos methyl and MDA with dihydroartemisinin- piperaquine were delivered in 4 co-timed campaign-style rounds 8 months apart. The primary endpoint was population prevalence of malaria, estimated by 6 cross-sectional surveys, starting at baseline and preceding each subsequent round. RESULTS: Comparing malaria prevalence in MDA+IRS and IRS only arms over all 6 surveys (intention-to-treat analysis), roughly every 6 months post-interventions, a geostatistical model found a significant additional 15.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): [13.7%, 17.5%], Z = 9.6, p = 5e-20) decrease in the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) due to MDA for all ages, a 13.3% reduction in under 5's (95% CI: [10.5%, 16.8%], Z = 4.02, p = 5e-5), and a 10.1% reduction in children 5-15 (95% CI: [8.5%, 11.8%], Z = 4.7, p = 2e-5). All ages residents of the MDA + IRS arm enjoyed an overall 80.1% reduction (95% CI: [80.0%, 83.0%], p = 0.0001) in odds of qPCR confirmed malaria compared with SOC residents. Secondary difference-in-difference analyses comparing surveys at different timepoints to baseline showed aOR (MDA + IRS vs IRS) of qPCR positivity between 0.28 and 0.66 (p < 0.001). Of three serious adverse events, one (nonfatal) was considered related to study medications. Limitations include the initial non-random assignment of study arms, the single large cluster per arm, and the lack of an MDA-only arm, considered to violate equipoise. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being assessed at long time points 5-7 months post-round, MDA plus IRS provided significant additional protection from malaria infection over IRS alone. Randomized trials of MDA in large areas undergoing IRS recommended as well as cohort studies of impact on incidence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was retrospectively registered 11/07/2018 with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR201807166695568).

Adherence to malaria management guidelines by health care workers in the Busoga sub-region, eastern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate malaria management is a key malaria control strategy. The objective of this study was to determine health care worker adherence levels to malaria case management guidelines in the Busoga sub-region, Uganda. METHODS: Health facility assessments, health care worker (HCW), and patient exit interview (PEI) surveys were conducted at government and private health facilities in the sub-region. All health centres (HC) IVs, IIIs, and a sample of HC IIs, representative of the tiered structure of outpatient service delivery at the district level were targeted. HCWs at these facilities were eligible for participation in the study. For PEIs, 210 patients of all ages presenting with a history of fever for outpatient care at selected facilities in each district were targeted. Patient outcome measures included testing rates, adherence to treatment, dispensing and counselling services as per national guidelines. The primary outcome was appropriate malaria case management, defined as the proportion of patients tested and only prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL) if positive. HCW readiness (e.g., training, supervision) and health facility capacity (e.g. availability of diagnostics and anti-malarials) to provide malaria case management were also assessed. Data were weighted to cater for the disproportionate representation of HC IIs in the study sample. RESULTS: A total of 3936 patients and 1718 HCW from 392 facilities were considered in the analysis. The median age of patients was 14 years; majority (63.4%) females. Most (70.1%) facilities were HCIIs and 72.7% were owned by the government. Malaria testing services were available at > 85% of facilities. AL was in stock at 300 (76.5%) facilities. Of those with a positive result, nearly all were prescribed an anti-malarial, with AL (95.1%) accounting for most prescriptions. Among those prescribed AL, 81.0% were given AL at the facility, lowest at HC IV (60.0%) and government owned (80.1%) facilities, corresponding to AL stock levels. Overall, 86.9% (95%CI 79.7, 90.7) of all enrolled patients received appropriate malaria case management. However, only 50.7% (21.2, 79.7) of patients seen at PFPs received appropriate malaria management. CONCLUSION: Adherence levels to malaria case management guidelines were good, but with gaps noted mainly in the private sector. The supply chain for AL needs to be strengthened. Interventions to improve practise at PFP facilities should be intensified.

District-led malaria surveillance and response as an effective way to manage malaria upsurges following the withdrawal of indoor residual spraying: a case study from Nwoya District, northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains the number one cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In 2009, the United States President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) funded an indoor residual spraying (IRS) project in 10 mid-northern districts, resulting in marked reductions in malaria prevalence over 5 years, from 62.5 percent to 7.2 percent. When the project ended and IRS withdrawn, malaria prevalence increased exponentially to pre-IRS level of 63 percent in 2016 and was characterized by frequent life-threatening upsurges that were exacerbated by a weak national led malaria surveillance system with delayed and piece meal responses. Malaria Consortium, in collaboration with Nwoya district local government implemented a district led malaria surveillance and response system. This study was conducted to compare the impact of District led and national led surveillance and response systems on overall malaria burden in two sub-counties in Nwoya district, Northern Uganda. METHODS: The assessment was conducted between week 41 of 2018 and week 10 of 2019 in Anaka and Alero sub counties following the shift from the national to district led malaria surveillance and response system. A district multi-sectoral malaria response taskforce team, known as the District Malaria Surveillance and Response Team (DMSRT), was formed by the Nwoya District Health Team (DHT). The DMSRT was trained and equipped with new surveillance tools for early detection of and response to malaria upsurges within the district, and were mandated to develop a costed district specific malaria response plan. RESULTS: All (18) targeted health facilities provided weekly malaria reports and continuously updated the malaria normal channel graphs. There was an overall reduction in weekly new malaria cases from 12.9 in week 41 of 2018 to 6.2 cases in week 10 of 2019. Malaria positivity rates (TPR) for Alero and Anaka sub-counties reduced from 76.0 percent and 69.3 percent at week 42 of 2018 to 28 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively at week 10 of 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria surveillance and response, with precisely targeted multipronged activities, when led and implemented by local district health authorities is an effective, efficient, and sustainable approach to prevent malaria upsurges and associated morbidity and mortality.

LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP2)-Factors associated with coverage and use of long­lasting insecticidal nets following the 2020-21 national mass distribution campaign: a cross-sectional survey of 12 districts.

BACKGROUND: In 2020-2021, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed nationwide in Uganda during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 12 districts to evaluate the impact of the campaign 1-5 months after LLIN distribution. METHODS: During April-May 2021, households were randomly selected from target areas (1-7 villages) surrounding 12 government-run health facilities established as Malaria Reference Centres; at least 50 households were enrolled per cluster. Outcomes included household ownership of LLINs distributed through the universal coverage campaign (UCC) (at least one UCC LLIN), adequate coverage of UCC LLINs (at least one UCC LLIN per 2 residents), and use of LLINs (resident slept under a LLIN the previous night). Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify household- and individual-level factors associated with outcomes, controlling for clustering around health facilities. RESULTS: In total, 634 households, with 3342 residents and 1631 bed-nets, were included. Most households (93.4%) owned at least 1 UCC LLIN, but only 56.8% were adequately covered by UCC LLINs. In an adjusted analysis, the factor most strongly associated with adequate coverage by UCC LLINs was fewer household residents (1-4 vs 7-14; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.96, 95% CI 4.76-35.26, p < 0.001; 5-6 vs 7-14 residents; aOR 2.99, 95% CI 1.21-7.42, p = 0.018). Of the 3166 residents of households that owned at least one UCC LLIN, only 1684 (53.2%) lived in adequately covered households; 89.9% of these used an LLIN the previous night, compared to 1034 (69.8%) of 1482 residents living in inadequately covered households. In an adjusted analysis, restricted to residents of inadequately covered households, LLIN use was higher in children under-five than those aged 5-15 years (aOR 3.04, 95% CI 2.08-4.46, p < 0.001), and higher in household heads than distantly-related residents (aOR 3.94, 95% CI 2.38-6.51, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Uganda's 2021-21 campaign was successful, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. In future campaigns, strategies should be adopted to ensure high LLIN coverage, particularly for larger households. A better understanding of the drivers of LLIN use within households is needed to guide future interventions, educational messages, and behaviour change communication strategies; school-aged children and distantly-related residents appear vulnerable and could be targeted.

Incremental cost and cost-effectiveness of the addition of indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl in sub-Saharan Africa versus standard malaria control: results of data collection and analysis in the Next Generation Indoor Residual Sprays (NgenIRS) project, an economic-evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Widespread resistance to pyrethroids threatens the gains achieved by vector control. To counter resistance to pyrethroids, third-generation indoor residual spraying (3GIRS) products have been developed. This study details the results of a multi-country cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of indoor residual spraying (IRS) programmes using Actellic®300CS, a 3GIRS product with pirimiphos-methyl, in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017 added to standard malaria control interventions including insecticide-treated bed nets versus standard malaria control interventions alone. METHODS: An economic evaluation of 3GIRS using Actellic®300CS in a broad range of sub-Saharan African settings was conducted using a variety of primary data collection and evidence synthesis methods. Four IRS programmes in Ghana, Mali, Uganda, and Zambia were included in the effectiveness analysis. Cost data come from six IRS programmes: one in each of the four countries where effect was measured plus Mozambique and a separate programme conducted by AngloGold Ashanti Malaria Control in Ghana. Financial and economic costs were quantified and valued. The main indicator for the cost was cost per person targeted. Country-specific case incidence rate ratios (IRRs), estimated by comparing IRS study districts to adjacent non-IRS study districts or facilities, were used to calculate cases averted in each study area. A deterministic analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted in each of the four countries for which effectiveness evaluations were available. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to generate plausibility bounds around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates for adding IRS to other standard interventions in each study setting as well as jointly utilizing data on effect and cost across all settings. RESULTS: Overall, IRRs from each country indicated that adding IRS with Actellic®300CS to the local standard intervention package was protective compared to the standard intervention package alone (IRR 0.67, [95% CI 0.50-0.91]). Results indicate that Actellic®300CS is expected to be a cost-effective (> 60% probability of being cost-effective in all settings) or highly cost-effective intervention across a range of transmission settings in sub-Saharan Africa. DISCUSSION: Variations in the incremental costs and cost-effectiveness likely result from several sources including: variation in the sprayed wall surfaces and house size relative to household population, the underlying malaria burden in the communities sprayed, the effectiveness of 3GIRS in different settings, and insecticide price. Programmes should be aware that current recommendations to rotate can mean variation and uncertainty in budgets; programmes should consider this in their insecticide-resistance management strategies. CONCLUSIONS: The optimal combination of 3GIRS delivery with other malaria control interventions will be highly context specific. 3GIRS using Actellic®300CS is expected to deliver acceptable value for money in a broad range of sub-Saharan African malaria transmission settings.

Effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on malaria indicators in Uganda (LLINEUP): a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial embedded in a national LLIN distribution campaign.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the primary malaria prevention tool, but their effectiveness is threatened by pyrethroid resistance. We embedded a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial into Uganda's national LLIN campaign to compare conventional LLINs with those containing piperonyl butoxide (PBO), a synergist that can partially restore pyrethroid susceptibility in mosquito vectors. METHODS: 104 health sub-districts, from 48 districts in Uganda, were randomly assigned to LLINs with PBO (PermaNet 3.0 and Olyset Plus) and conventional LLINs (PermaNet 2.0 and Olyset Net) by proportionate randomisation using an iterative process. At baseline 6, 12, and 18 months after LLIN distribution, cross-sectional surveys were done in 50 randomly selected households per cluster (5200 per survey); a subset of ten households per cluster (1040 per survey) were randomly selected for entomological surveys. The primary outcome was parasite prevalence by microscopy in children aged 2-10 years, assessed in the as-treated population at 6, 12, and 18 months. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17516395. FINDINGS: LLINs were delivered to households from March 25, 2017, to March 18, 2018, 32 clusters were randomly assigned to PermaNet 3.0, 20 to Olyset Plus, 37 to PermaNet 2.0, and 15 to Olyset Net. In the as-treated analysis, three clusters were excluded because no dominant LLIN was received, and four clusters were reassigned, resulting in 49 PBO LLIN clusters (31 received PermaNet 3.0 and 18 received Olyset Plus) and 52 non-PBO LLIN clusters (39 received PermaNet 2.0 and 13 received Olyset Net). At 6 months, parasite prevalence was 11% (386/3614) in the PBO group compared with 15% (556/3844) in the non-PBO group (prevalence ratio [PR] adjusted for baseline values 0·74, 95% CI 0·62-0·87; p=0·0003). Parasite prevalence was similar at month 12 (11% vs 13%; PR 0·73, 95% CI 0·63-0·85; p=0·0001) and month 18 (12% vs 14%; PR 0·84, 95% CI 0·72-0·98; p=0·029). INTERPRETATION: In Uganda, where pyrethroid resistance is high, PBO LLINs reduced parasite prevalence more effectively than did conventional LLINs for up to 18 months. This study provides evidence needed to support WHO's final recommendation on use of PBO LLINs. FUNDING: The Against Malaria Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Innovative Vector Control Consortium, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends in access to anti-malarial treatment in the formal private sector in Uganda: an assessment of availability and affordability of first-line anti-malarials and diagnostics between 2007 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is the single largest cause of illness in Uganda. Since the year 2008, the Global Fund has rolled out several funding streams for malaria control in Uganda. Among these are mechanisms aimed at increasing the availability and affordability of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). This paper examines the availability and affordability of first-line malaria treatment and diagnostics in the private sector, which is the preferred first point of contact for 61% of households in Uganda between 2007 and 2018. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted between 2007 and 2018, based on a standardized World Health Organization/Health Action International (WHO/HAI) methodology adapted to assess availability, patient prices, and affordability of ACT medicines in private retail outlets. A minimum of 30 outlets were surveyed per year as prescribed by the standardized methodology co-developed by the WHO and Health Action International. Availability, patient prices, and affordability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) was also tracked from 2012 following the rollout of the test and treat policy in 2010. The median patient prices for the artemisinin-based combinations and RDTs was calculated in US dollars (USD). Affordability was assessed by computing the number of days' wages the lowest-paid government worker (LPGW) had to pay to purchase a treatment course for acute malaria. RESULTS: Availability of artemether/lumefantrine (A/L), the first-line ACT medicine, increased from 85 to100% in the private sector facilities during the study period. However, there was low availability of diagnostic tests in private sector facilities ranging between 13% (2012) and 37% (2018). There was a large reduction in patient prices for an adult treatment course of A/L from USD 8.8 in 2007 to USD 1.1 in 2018, while the price of diagnostics remained mostly stagnant at USD 0.5. The affordability of ACT medicines and RDTs was below one day's wages for LPGW. CONCLUSIONS: Availability of ACT medicines in the private sector medicines retail outlets increased to 100% while the availability of diagnostics remained low. Although malaria treatment was affordable, the price of diagnostics remained stagnant and increased the cumulative cost of malaria management. Malaria stakeholders should consolidate the gains made and consider the inclusion of diagnostic kits in the subsidy programme.

Efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria and prevalence of molecular markers associated with artemisinin and partner drug resistance in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In Uganda, artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is first-line therapy and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) second-line therapy for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. This study evaluated the efficacy and safety of AL and DP in the management of uncomplicated falciparum malaria and measured the prevalence of molecular markers of resistance in three sentinel sites in Uganda from 2018 to 2019. METHODS: This was a randomized, open-label, phase IV clinical trial. Children aged 6 months to 10 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria were randomly assigned to treatment with AL or DP and followed for 28 and 42 days, respectively. Genotyping was used to distinguish recrudescence from new infection, and a Bayesian algorithm was used to assign each treatment failure a posterior probability of recrudescence. For monitoring resistance, Pfk13 and Pfmdr1 genes were Sanger sequenced and plasmepsin-2 copy number was assessed by qPCR. RESULTS: There were no early treatment failures. The uncorrected 28-day cumulative efficacy of AL ranged from 41.2 to 71.2% and the PCR-corrected cumulative 28-day efficacy of AL ranged from 87.2 to 94.4%. The uncorrected 28-day cumulative efficacy of DP ranged from 95.8 to 97.9% and the PCR-corrected cumulative 28-day efficacy of DP ranged from 98.9 to 100%. The uncorrected 42-day efficacy of DP ranged from 73.5 to 87.4% and the PCR-corrected 42-day efficacy of DP ranged from 92.1 to 97.5%. There were no reported serious adverse events associated with any of the regimens. No resistance-associated mutations in the Pfk13 gene were found in the successfully sequenced samples. In the AL arm, the NFD haplotype (N86Y, Y184F, D1246Y) was the predominant Pfmdr1 haplotype, present in 78 of 127 (61%) and 76 of 110 (69%) of the day 0 and day of failure samples, respectively. All the day 0 samples in the DP arm had one copy of the plasmepsin-2 gene. CONCLUSIONS: DP remains highly effective and safe for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Uganda. Recurrent infections with AL were common. In Busia and Arua, the 95% confidence interval for PCR-corrected AL efficacy fell below 90%. Further efficacy monitoring for AL, including pharmacokinetic studies, is recommended. Trial registration The trail was also registered with the ISRCTN registry with study Trial No. PACTR201811640750761.

Changing malaria fever test positivity among paediatric admissions to Tororo district hospital, Uganda 2012-2019.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) promotes long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and indoor residual house-spraying (IRS) for malaria control in endemic countries. However, long-term impact data of vector control interventions is rarely measured empirically. METHODS: Surveillance data was collected from paediatric admissions at Tororo district hospital for the period January 2012 to December 2019, during which LLIN and IRS campaigns were implemented in the district. Malaria test positivity rate (TPR) among febrile admissions aged 1 month to 14 years was aggregated at baseline and three intervention periods (first LLIN campaign; Bendiocarb IRS; and Actellic IRS + second LLIN campaign) and compared using before-and-after analysis. Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was used to determine the effect of IRS (Bendiocarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN campaign on monthly TPR compared to the combined baseline and first LLIN campaign periods controlling for age, rainfall, type of malaria test performed. The mean and median ages were examined between intervention intervals and as trend since January 2012. RESULTS: Among 28,049 febrile admissions between January 2012 and December 2019, TPR decreased from 60% at baseline (January 2012-October 2013) to 31% during the final period of Actellic IRS and LLIN (June 2016-December 2019). Comparing intervention intervals to the baseline TPR (60.3%), TPR was higher during the first LLIN period (67.3%, difference 7.0%; 95% CI 5.2%, 8.8%, p < 0.001), and lower during the Bendiocarb IRS (43.5%, difference - 16.8%; 95% CI - 18.7%, - 14.9%) and Actellic IRS (31.3%, difference - 29.0%; 95% CI - 30.3%, - 27.6%, p < 0.001) periods. ITSA confirmed a significant decrease in the level and trend of TPR during the IRS (Bendicarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN period compared to the pre-IRS (baseline + first LLIN) period. The age of children with positive test results significantly increased with time from a mean of 24 months at baseline to 39 months during the final IRS and LLIN period. CONCLUSION: IRS can have a dramatic impact on hospital paediatric admissions harbouring malaria infection. The sustained expansion of effective vector control leads to an increase in the age of malaria positive febrile paediatric admissions. However, despite large reductions, malaria test-positive admissions continued to be concentrated in children aged under five years. Despite high coverage of IRS and LLIN, these vector control measures failed to interrupt transmission in Tororo district. Using simple, cost-effective hospital surveillance, it is possible to monitor the public health impacts of IRS in combination with LLIN.

Molecular surveillance reveals the presence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions in Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in Uganda, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Histidine-rich protein-2 (HRP2)-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are the only RDTs recommended for malaria diagnosis in Uganda. However, the emergence of Plasmodium falciparum histidine rich protein 2 and 3 (pfhrp2 and pfhrp3) gene deletions threatens their usefulness as malaria diagnostic and surveillance tools. The pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions surveillance was conducted in P. falciparum parasite populations in Uganda. METHODS: Three-hundred (n = 300) P. falciparum isolates collected from cross-sectional malaria surveys in symptomatic individuals in 48 districts of eastern and western Uganda were analysed for the presence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes. Presence of parasite DNA was confirmed by PCR amplification of the 18s rRNA gene, msp1 and msp2 single copy genes. Presence or absence of deletions was confirmed by amplification of exon1 and exon2 of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 using gene specific PCR. RESULTS: Overall, pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions were detected in 29/300 (9.7%, 95% CI 6.6-13.6%) parasite isolates. The pfhrp2 gene was deleted in 10/300 (3.3%, 95% CI 1.6-6.0%) isolates, pfhrp3 in 9/300 (3.0%, 95% CI 1.4-5.6%) while both pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 were deleted in 10/300 (3.3%, 95% CI 1.6-6.0%) parasite isolates. Proportion of pfhrp2/3 deletions was higher in the eastern 14.7% (95% CI 9.7-20.0%) compared to the western region 3.1% (95% CI 0.8-7.7%), p = 0.001. Geographical location was associated with gene deletions aOR 6.25 (2.02-23.55), p = 0.003. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first large-scale survey reporting the presence of pfhrp2/3 gene deletions in P. falciparum isolates in Uganda. Roll out of RDTs for malaria diagnosis should take into consideration the existence of pfhrp2/3 gene deletions particularly in areas where they were detected. Periodic pfhrp2/3 surveys are recommended to inform future decisions for deployment of alternative RDTs.

Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. RESULTS: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged < 5 years, 171,166 aged 5-15 years and 513,752 > 15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in < 5 years decreased from 31 to 16% and 35 to 25%, respectively. In the two sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions decreased from 58 to 30% and 64 to 47%, respectively. Similarly, in the LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases > 15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies.

The age-specific incidence of hospitalized paediatric malaria in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the relationship between malaria infection risk and disease outcomes represents a fundamental component of morbidity and mortality burden estimations. Contemporary data on severe malaria risks among populations of different parasite exposures are scarce. Using surveillance data, we compared rates of paediatric malaria hospitalisation in areas of varying parasite exposure levels. METHODS: Surveillance data at five public hospitals; Jinja, Mubende, Kabale, Tororo, and Apac were assembled among admissions aged 1 month to 14 years between 2017 and 2018. The address of each admission was used to define a local catchment population where national census data was used to define person-year-exposure to risk. Within each catchment, historical infection prevalence was assembled from previously published data and current infection prevalence defined using 33 population-based school surveys among 3400 children. Poisson regression was used to compute the overall and site-specific incidences with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Both current and historical Plasmodium falciparum prevalence varied across the five sites. Current prevalence ranged from < 1% in Kabale to 54% in Apac. Overall, the malaria admission incidence rate (IR) was 7.3 per 1000 person years among children aged 1 month to 14 years of age (95% CI: 7.0, 7.7). The lowest rate was described at Kabale (IR = 0.3; 95 CI: 0.1, 0.6) and highest at Apac (IR = 20.3; 95 CI: 18.9, 21.8). There was a correlation between IR across the five sites and the current parasite prevalence in school children, though findings were not statistically significant. Across all sites, except Kabale, malaria admissions were concentrated among young children, 74% were under 5 years. The median age of malaria admissions at Kabale hospital was 40 months (IQR 20, 72), and at Apac hospital was 36 months (IQR 18, 69). Overall, severe anaemia (7.6%) was the most common presentation and unconsciousness (1.8%) the least common. CONCLUSION: Malaria hospitalisation rates remain high in Uganda particularly among young children. The incidence of hospitalized malaria in different locations in Uganda appears to be influenced by past parasite exposure, immune acquisition, and current risks of infection. Interruption of transmission through vector control could influence age-specific severe malaria risk.

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period. METHODS: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index. RESULTS: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions. CONCLUSION: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

Comparative Efficacy of Artemether-Lumefantrine and Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine for the Treatment of Uncomplicated Malaria in Ugandan Children.

BACKGROUND: In Uganda, artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQ) showed excellent treatment efficacy for uncomplicated malaria in prior trials. Because the frequency of resistance to artemisinins and piperaquine is increasing in Southeast Asia and the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum polymorphisms associated with resistance has changed, we reassessed treatment efficacies at 3 sites in Uganda. METHODS: For this randomized, single-blinded clinical trial, children aged 6-59 months with uncomplicated falciparum malaria were assigned treatment with AL or DHA-PQ and followed for 42 days. Primary end points were risks of recurrent parasitemia, either unadjusted or adjusted to distinguish recrudescence from new infection. We assessed selection by study regimens of relevant P. falciparum genetic polymorphisms associated with drug resistance. RESULTS: Of 599 patients enrolled, 578 completed follow-up. There were no early treatment failures. The risk of recurrent parasitemia was lower with DHA-PQ as compared to AL at all 3 sites at 42 days (26.0% vs 47.0%; P < .001). Recrudescent infections were uncommon in both the DHA-PQ and AL arms (1.1% and 2.2%, respectively; P = .25). Neither regimen selected for pfcrt or pfmdr1 polymorphisms associated with drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: AL and DHA-PQ remain effective for the treatment of malaria in Uganda. Neither regimen selected for genetic polymorphisms associated with drug resistance. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ISRCTN15793046.