Untangling introductions and persistence in COVID-19 resurgence in Europe.

After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave2. Here we build a phylogeographical model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries more than half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since 15 June 2020. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with the local incidence of COVID-19 during this period. The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted, and this needs to be carefully considered in strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain the spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination is reducing disease burden.

West Nile virus spread in Europe: Phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in birds, humans, and livestock have occurred in multiple areas in Europe and have had a significant impact on animal and human health. The patterns of emergence and spread of WNV in Europe are very different from those in the US and understanding these are important for guiding preparedness activities. METHODS: We mapped the evolution and spread history of WNV in Europe by incorporating viral genome sequences and epidemiological data into phylodynamic models. Spatially explicit phylogeographic models were developed to explore the possible contribution of different drivers to viral dispersal direction and velocity. A "skygrid-GLM" approach was used to identify how changes in environments would predict viral genetic diversity variations over time. FINDINGS: Among the six lineages found in Europe, WNV-2a (a sub-lineage of WNV-2) has been predominant (accounting for 73% of all sequences obtained in Europe that have been shared in the public domain) and has spread to at least 14 countries. In the past two decades, WNV-2a has evolved into two major co-circulating clusters, both originating from Central Europe, but with distinct dynamic history and transmission patterns. WNV-2a spreads at a high dispersal velocity (88km/yr-215 km/yr) which is correlated to bird movements. Notably, amongst multiple drivers that could affect the spread of WNV, factors related to land use were found to strongly influence the spread of WNV. Specifically, the intensity of agricultural activities (defined by factors related to crops and livestock production, such as coverage of cropland, pasture, cultivated and managed vegetation, livestock density) were positively associated with both spread direction and velocity. In addition, WNV spread direction was associated with high coverage of wetlands and migratory bird flyways. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that-in addition to ecological conditions favouring bird- and mosquito- presence-agricultural land use may be a significant driver of WNV emergence and spread. Our study also identified significant gaps in data and the need to strengthen virological surveillance in countries of Central Europe from where WNV outbreaks are likely seeded. Enhanced monitoring for early detection of further dispersal could be targeted to areas with high agricultural activities and habitats of migratory birds.

Clinical and Virological Outcome of Monoclonal Antibody Therapies Across SARS-CoV-2 Variants in 245 Immunocompromised Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised patients (ICPs) have an increased risk for a severe and prolonged COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were extensively used in these patients, but data from randomized trials that focus on ICPs are lacking. We evaluated the clinical and virological outcome of COVID-19 in ICPs treated with mAbs across SARS-CoV-2 variants. METHODS: In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we enrolled B-cell- and/or T-cell-deficient patients treated with casirivimab/imdevimab, sotrovimab, or tixagevimab/cilgavimab. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified and sequenced weekly, and time to viral clearance, viral genome mutations, hospitalization, and death rates were registered. RESULTS: Two hundred and forty five patients infected with the Delta (50%) or Omicron BA.1, 2, or 5 (50%) variant were enrolled. Sixty-seven percent were vaccinated; 78 treated as outpatients, of whom 2 required hospital admission, but both survived. Of the 159 patients hospitalized at time of treatment, 43 (27%) required mechanical ventilation or died. The median time to viral clearance was 14 days (interquartile range, 7-22); however, it took >30 days in 15%. Resistance-associated spike mutations emerged in 9 patients in whom the median time to viral clearance was 63 days (95% confidence interval, 57-69; P < .001). Spike mutations were observed in 1 of 42 (2.4%) patients after treatment with 2 active mAbs, in 5 of 34 (14.7%) treated with actual monotherapy (sotrovimab), and 3 of 20 (12%) treated with functional monotherapy (ie, tixagevimab/cilgavimab against tixagevimab-resistant variant). CONCLUSIONS: Despite treatment with mAbs, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in ICPs remained substantial. Combination antiviral therapy should be further explored and may be preferred in severely ICPs.

Circulation, viral diversity and genomic rearrangement in mpox virus in the Netherlands during the 2022 outbreak and beyond.

Mpox is an emerging zoonotic disease which has now spread to over 113 countries as of August 2023, with over 89,500 confirmed human cases. The Netherlands had one of the highest incidence rates in Europe during the peak of the outbreak. In this study, we generated 158 near-complete mpox virus (MPXV) genomes (12.4% of nationwide cases) that were collected throughout the Netherlands from the start of the outbreak in May 2022 to August 2023 to track viral evolution and investigate outbreak dynamics. We detected 14 different viral lineages, suggesting multiple introductions followed by rapid initial spread within the country. The estimated evolutionary rate was relatively high compared to previously described in orthopoxvirus literature, with an estimated 11.58 mutations per year. Genomic rearrangement events occurred at a rate of 0.63% and featured a large deletion event. In addition, based on phylogenetics, we identified multiple potential transmission clusters which could be supported by direct source- and contact tracing data. This led to the identification of at least two main transmission locations at the beginning of the outbreak. We conclude that whole genome sequencing of MPXV is essential to enhance our understanding of outbreak dynamics and evolution of a relatively understudied and emerging zoonotic pathogen.

Real-time PCR assay to detect the novel Clade Ib monkeypox virus, September 2023 to May 2024.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is an emerging zoonotic pathogen with complex epidemiology necessitating rapid diagnosis and distinguishing between clades and subclades. The emerging Clade Ib lacks the genomic region used in the Clade I-specific assay from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We report an MPXV real-time PCR to specifically detect Clade Ib. The assay demonstrated proficient sensitivity and specificity in 92 samples and can be included along other TaqMan-based assays to detect MPXV and distinguish between clades and subclades.

Ongoing mpox outbreak in Kamituga, South Kivu province, associated with monkeypox virus of a novel Clade I sub-lineage, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2024.

Since the beginning of 2023, the number of people with suspected monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection have sharply increased in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We report near-to-complete MPXV genome sequences derived from six cases from the South Kivu province. Phylogenetic analyses reveal that the MPXV affecting the cases belongs to a novel Clade I sub-lineage. The outbreak strain genome lacks the target sequence of the probe and primers of a commonly used Clade I-specific real-time PCR.

Sotrovimab Resistance and Viral Persistence After Treatment of Immunocompromised Patients Infected With the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variant.

Viral evolution was evaluated in 47 immunocompromised patients treated with sotrovimab. Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 following therapy was successful in 16. Mutations associated with sotrovimab resistance were documented in 6; viral replication continued after 30 days in 5. Combination antibody therapy may be required to avoid acquired resistance in immunocompromised patients.

High-titer convalescent plasma plus nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment for non-resolving COVID-19 in six immunocompromised patients.

OBJECTIVES: Immunocompromised patients have an increased risk of severe or prolonged COVID-19. Currently available drugs are registered to treat COVID-19 during the first 5 to 7 days after symptom onset. Data on the effectivity in immunocompromised patients with chronic non-resolving COVID-19 are urgently needed. Here, we report the outcome of patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir together with high-titer convalescent plasma (CP) in six immunocompromised patients with non-resolving COVID-19. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with persisting COVID-19 (positive PCR with Ct values <30 for ≥20 days) received off-label therapy with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. It was combined with CP containing BA.5 neutralizing titers of ≥1/640 whenever available. Follow-up was done by PCR and sequencing on nasopharyngeal swabs on a weekly basis until viral genome was undetectable consecutively. RESULTS: Five immunocompromised patients were treated with high-titer CP and 5 days of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. One patient received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir monotherapy. Median duration of SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity was 70 (range 20-231) days before nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment. In four patients receiving combination therapy, no viral genome of SARS-CoV-2 was detected on day 7 and 14 after treatment while the patient receiving nirmatrelvir/ritonavir monotherapy, the day 7 Ct value increased to 34 and viral genome was undetectable thereafter. Treatment was unsuccessful in one patient. In this patient, sequencing after nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment did not show protease gene mutations. CONCLUSIONS: In immunocompromised patients with non-resolving COVID-19, the combination of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and CP may be an effective treatment. Larger prospective studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results and should compare different treatment durations.

SARS-CoV-2 in lions, gorillas and zookeepers in the Rotterdam Zoo, the Netherlands, a One Health investigation, November 2021.

In November 2021, seven western lowland gorillas and four Asiatic lions were diagnosed with COVID-19 at Rotterdam Zoo. An outbreak investigation was undertaken to determine the source and extent of the outbreak and to identify possible transmission routes. Interviews were conducted with staff to identify human and animal contacts and cases, compliance with personal protective equipment (PPE) and potential transmission routes. Human and animal contacts and other animal species suspected to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Positive samples were subjected to sequencing. All the gorillas and lions that could be tested (3/7 and 2/4, respectively) were RT-PCR positive between 12 November and 10 December 2021. No other animal species were SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive. Forty direct and indirect human contacts were identified. Two direct contacts tested RT-PCR positive 10 days after the first COVID-19 symptoms in animals. The zookeepers' viral genome sequences clustered with those of gorillas and lions. Personal protective equipment compliance was suboptimal at instances. Findings confirm transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among animals and between humans and animals but source and directionality could not be established. Zookeepers were the most likely source and should have periodic PPE training. Sick animals should promptly be tested and isolated/quarantined.

Cryptic SARS-CoV-2 lineage identified on two mink farms as a possible result of long-term undetected circulation in an unknown animal reservoir, Poland, November 2022 to January 2023.

In late 2022 and early 2023, SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected on three mink farms in Poland situated within a few km from each other. Whole-genome sequencing of the viruses on two of the farms showed that they were related to a virus identified in humans in the same region 2 years before (B.1.1.307 lineage). Many mutations were found, including in the S protein typical of adaptations to the mink host. The origin of the virus remains to be determined.