A trait-based model ensemble approach to design rice plant types for future climate.

Crop models are powerful tools to support breeding because of their capability to explore genotype × environment×management interactions that can help design promising plant types under climate change. However, relationships between plant traits and model parameters are often model specific and not necessarily direct, depending on how models formulate plant morphological and physiological features. This hinders model application in plant breeding. We developed a novel trait-based multi-model ensemble approach to improve the design of rice plant types for future climate projections. We conducted multi-model simulations targeting enhanced productivity, and aggregated results into model-ensemble sets of phenotypic traits as defined by breeders rather than by model parameters. This allowed to overcome the limitations due to ambiguities in trait-parameter mapping from single modelling approaches. Breeders' knowledge and perspective were integrated to provide clear mapping from designed plant types to breeding traits. Nine crop models from the AgMIP-Rice Project and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to explore trait responses under different climate and management scenarios at four sites. The method demonstrated the potential of yield improvement that ranged from 15.8% to 41.5% compared to the current cultivars under mid-century climate projections. These results highlight the primary role of phenological traits to improve crop adaptation to climate change, as well as traits involved with canopy development and structure. The variability of plant types derived with different models supported model ensembles to handle related uncertainty. Nevertheless, the models agreed in capturing the effect of the heterogeneity in climate conditions across sites on key traits, highlighting the need for context-specific breeding programmes to improve crop adaptation to climate change. Although further improvement is needed for crop models to fully support breeding programmes, a trait-based ensemble approach represents a major step towards the integration of crop modelling and breeding to address climate change challenges and develop adaptation options.

Estimating Crop Nutritional Status Using Smart Apps to Support Nitrogen Fertilization. A Case Study on Paddy Rice.

Accurate nitrogen (N) management is crucial for the economic and environmental sustainability of cropping systems. Different methods have been developed to increase the efficiency of N fertilizations. However, their costs and/or low usability have often prevented their adoption in operational contexts. We developed a diagnostic system to support topdressing N fertilization based on the use of smart apps to derive a N nutritional index (NNI; actual/critical plant N content). The system was tested on paddy rice via dedicated field experiments, where the smart apps PocketLAI and PocketN were used to estimate, respectively, critical (from leaf area index) and actual plant N content. Results highlighted the system's capability to correctly detect the conditions of N stress (NNI < 1) and N surplus (NNI > 1), thereby effectively supporting topdressing fertilizations. A resource-efficient methodology to derive PocketN calibration curves for different varieties-needed to extend the system to new contexts-was also developed and successfully evaluated on 43 widely grown European varieties. The widespread availability of smartphones and the possibility to integrate NNI and remote sensing technologies to derive variable rate fertilization maps generate new opportunities for supporting N management under real farming conditions.

Surfing parameter hyperspaces under climate change scenarios to design future rice ideotypes.

Growing food crops to meet global demand and the search for more sustainable cropping systems are increasing the need for new cultivars in key production areas. This study presents the identification of rice traits putatively producing the largest yield benefits in five areas that markedly differ in terms of environmental conditions in the Philippines, India, China, Japan and Italy. The ecophysiological model WARM and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to evaluate phenotypic traits involved with light interception, photosynthetic efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stressors, resistance to fungal pathogens and grain quality. The analysis involved only model parameters that have a close relationship with phenotypic traits breeders are working on, to increase the in vivo feasibility of selected ideotypes. Current climate and future projections were considered, in the light of the resources required by breeding programs and of the role of weather variables in the identification of promising traits. Results suggest that breeding for traits involved with disease resistance, and tolerance to cold- and heat-induced spikelet sterility could provide benefits similar to those obtained from the improvement of traits involved with canopy structure and photosynthetic efficiency. In contrast, potential benefits deriving from improved grain quality traits are restricted by weather variability and markedly affected by G × E interactions. For this reason, district-specific ideotypes were identified using a new index accounting for both their productivity and feasibility.

A new digital technology to reduce fungicide use in vineyards.

There is a growing demand for technologies able to decrease the environmental impact of agricultural activities without penalizing quali-quantitative characteristics of productions. In the case of viticulture, one of the key problems is represented by the spray drift during fungicide treatments. The diffusion in operational farming contexts of technologies based on variable-rate and recycling tunnel sprayers is often limited by their cost and, for the latter, by their size and lower maneuverability, representing clear disadvantages especially in case of small farms or in hilly and mountain areas. We present a new digital technology implemented in a mobile app that supports the reduction of both the number of treatments and the amount of fungicide distributed per treatment. The technology is based (i) on an alert system that prevents unneeded treatments in case of no risk of infection and (ii) on the quantification of the optimal amounts of active ingredients and dilution water based on the sprayer type/settings and on leaf area index values estimated with a common smartphone. An internal database allows to adjust (in case of need) the active ingredient dose to assure full compliance with product's legal requirements. In case of heterogeneity in leaf area index values inside the vineyard, prescription maps are generated. Results from a 2-year case study in a vineyard in northern Italy are shown, where the system allowed to reduce by 26.4 % and 27.4 % (mean of two years), respectively, the seasonal amounts of fungicides and dilution water, and by 43.8 % the copper content in must. The high usability of the technology proposed (just a common smartphone is needed) and the fact that it does not require updating the farm machine park highlights the suitability of the proposed solution for operational farming conditions, including premium wine production districts often characterized by small farms in hilly areas.

Setting-up of different water managements as mitigation strategy of the environmental impact of paddy rice.

Northern Italy represents the most important rice-growing district in Europe. In this area, rice is the main annual crop and the main revenues source for farmers. However, Italian climatic condition led to a traditional cultivation characterized by continuous flooding, causing emissions of methane into the atmosphere due to the organic matter fermentation in anaerobic conditions, and, consequently, a high environmental impact. The water conditions of paddy fields also affect heavy metals uptake by rice plants. In this context, this study focuses on the evaluation of environmental impact and of heavy metal content in paddy rice, and it may represent an important step in mitigating the environmental impact of rice production. In detail, this study quantifies the environmental benefits related to the adoption of an alternative water management characterized by an additional aeration period during stem elongation. To this purpose, field trials were carried out and the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach was applied with a cradle-to-farm gate perspective. The potential environmental impact of the production of two rice varieties (Carnaroli and Caravaggio) was analysed in terms of 12 different impact categories and dehulled rice grain were analysed for arsenic and cadmium content. Alternative flooding decreases CH4 emissions in all cases evaluated (from 15% to 52%), resulting in a reduction in the climate change impact of rice cultivation (from 12% to 32%). Furthermore, the alternative water management does not influence grain yield and it reduces all the other environmental impact categories in 2 out of 4 cases. Regarding the heavy metals contents, the arsenic content in the grain decreases in all alternative scenarios, whereas the cadmium content increases, while remaining well below the legal limits.

May smart technologies reduce the environmental impact of nitrogen fertilization? A case study for paddy rice.

Precision agriculture is increasingly considered as a powerful solution to mitigate the environmental impact of farming systems. This is because of its ability to use multi-source information in decision support systems to increase the efficiency of farm management. Among the agronomic practices for which precision agriculture concepts were applied in research and operational contexts, variable rate (VR) nitrogen fertilization plays a key role. A promising approach to make quantitative, spatially distributed diagnoses to support VR N fertilization is based on the combined use of remote sensing information and few smart scouting-driven ground estimates to derive maps of nitrogen nutrition index (NNI). In this study, a new smart app for field NNI estimates (PocketNNI) was developed, which can be integrated with remote sensing data. The environmental impact of using PocketNNI and Sentinel 2 products to drive fertilization was evaluated using the Life Cycle Assessment approach and a case study on rice in northern Italy. In particular, the environmental performances of rice fertilized according to VR information derived from the integration of PocketNNI and satellite data was compared with a treatment based on uniform N application. Primary data regarding the cultivation practices and the achieved yields were collected during field tests. Results showed that VR fertilization allowed reducing the environmental impact by 11.0% to 13.6% as compared to uniform N application. For Climate Change, the impact is reduced from 937.3 to 832.7 kg CO2 eq/t of paddy rice. The highest environmental benefits - mainly due to an improved ratio between grain yield and N fertilizers - were achieved in terms of energy consumption for fertilizer production and of emission of N compounds. Although further validation is needed, these preliminary results are promising and provide a first quantitative indication of the environmental benefits that can be achieved when digital technologies are used to support N fertilization.

Tailoring parameter distributions to specific germplasm: impact on crop model-based ideotyping.

Crop models are increasingly used to identify promising ideotypes for given environmental and management conditions. However, uncertainty must be properly managed to maximize the in vivo realizability of ideotypes. We focused on the impact of adopting germplasm-specific distributions while exploring potential combinations of traits. A field experiment was conducted on 43 Italian rice varieties representative of the Italian rice germplasm, where the following traits were measured: light extinction coefficient, radiation use efficiency, specific leaf area at emergence and tillering. Data were used to derive germplasm-specific distributions, which were used to re-run a previous modelling experiment aimed at identifying optimal combinations of plant trait values. The analysis, performed using the rice model WARM and sensitivity analysis techniques, was conducted under current conditions and climate change scenarios. Results revealed that the adoption of germplasm-specific distributions may markedly affect ideotyping, especially for the identification of most promising traits. A re-ranking of some of the most relevant parameters was observed (radiation use efficiency shifted from 4th to 1st), without clear relationships between changes in rankings and differences in distributions for single traits. Ideotype profiles (i.e., values of the ideotype traits) were instead more consistent, although differences in trait values were found.

Quantifying Uncertainty Due to Stochastic Weather Generators in Climate Change Impact Studies.

Climate change studies involve complex processes translating coarse climate change projections in locally meaningful terms. We analysed the behaviour of weather generators while downscaling precipitation and air temperature data. With multiple climate indices and alternative weather generators, we directly quantified the uncertainty associated with using weather generators when site specific downscaling is performed. We extracted the influence of weather generators on climate variability at local scale and the uncertainty that could affect impact assessment. For that, we first designed the downscaling experiments with three weather generators (CLIMAK, LARS-WG, WeaGETS) to interpret future projections. Then we assessed the impacts of estimated changes of precipitation and air temperature for a sample of 15 sites worldwide using a rice yield model and an extended set of climate metrics. We demonstrated that the choice of a weather generator in the downscaling process may have a higher impact on crop yield estimates than the climate scenario adopted. Should they be confirmed, these results would indicate that widely accepted outcomes of climate change studies using this downscaling technique need reconsideration.

Trait-based model development to support breeding programs. A case study for salt tolerance and rice.

Eco-physiological models are increasingly used to analyze G × E × M interactions to support breeding programs via the design of ideotypes for specific contexts. However, available crop models are only partly suitable for this purpose, since they often lack clear relationships between parameters and traits breeders are working on. Taking salt stress tolerance and rice as a case study, we propose a paradigm shift towards the building of ideotyping-specific models explicitly around traits involved in breeding programs. Salt tolerance is a complex trait relying on different physiological processes that can be alternatively selected to improve the overall crop tolerance. We developed a new model explicitly accounting for these traits and we evaluated its performance using data from growth chamber experiments (e.g., R2 ranged from 0.74 to 0.94 for the biomass of different plant organs). Using the model, we were able to show how an increase in the overall tolerance can derive from completely different physiological mechanisms according to soil/water salinity dynamics. The study demonstrated that a trait-based approach can increase the usefulness of mathematical models for supporting breeding programs.