Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date.

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17.

IntroductionThe United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case-control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18-64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2-17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 mid-season results.

In 2015/16, the influenza season in the United Kingdom was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Virus characterisation indicated the emergence of genetic clusters, with the majority antigenically similar to the current influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain. Mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates show an adjusted VE of 41.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0-64.7) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultations and of 49.1% (95% CI: 9.3-71.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates show levels of protection similar to the 2010/11 season, when this strain was first used in the seasonal vaccine.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for adults and children in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 end-of-season results.

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the third season of introducing universal paediatric influenza vaccination with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The 2015/16 season in the UK was initially dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and then influenza of B/Victoria lineage, not contained in that season's adult trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Overall adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.0-61.6) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultation, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.6-64.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 54.2% (95% CI: 33.1-68.6) against influenza B. In 2-17 year-olds, adjusted VE for LAIV was 57.6% (95% CI: 25.1 to 76.0) against any influenza, 81.4% (95% CI: 39.6-94.3) against influenza B and 41.5% (95% CI: -8.5 to 68.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates demonstrate moderate to good levels of protection, particularly against influenza B in children, but relatively less against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Despite lineage mismatch in the trivalent IIV, adults younger than 65 years were still protected against influenza B. These results provide reassurance for the UK to continue its influenza immunisation programme planned for 2016/17.

Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20-21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs. METHODS: Residual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20-21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20-21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly vaccinated cohorts of individuals enter the screening programme. Differences in results with different specimen types must be taken into account when monitoring the impact of vaccination programmes.

Achieving high and equitable coverage of adolescent HPV vaccine in Scotland.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: The national immunisation records of over 220,000 girls offered vaccine in the routine or catch-up programme of the Human papillomavirus (HPV) programme in Scotland were analysed. Descriptive statistics and multilevel modelling were used to determine individual and organisational factors associated with uptake. Age, school year, school denomination, deprivation and, for school-leavers, mode of delivery were explored. Additional aggregate data were used to examine the effect of late uptake of missed doses in the routine vaccination programme. RESULTS: School-based delivery initially achieved over 80% uptake of complete courses in routine and catch-up age groups. Within this context of generally high coverage, there was an association between individual level deprivation and lower uptake, and a decline in in-year course completion over time. However, later uptake of missed doses in the following year substantially decreased these effects. There was no influence on uptake of the type of school (non-denominational/denominational). Vaccination of school-leavers in the catch-up campaign had lower coverage, with 50% starting and 30% completing the course in-year. There was no clear advantage of vaccination through general practice or through Board-run clinics in reaching this group. CONCLUSIONS: School-based vaccination can achieve high and equitable uptake of a multidose vaccine in a routine immunisation programme. Sustained high coverage with HPV vaccine across Scotland provides a stable platform for planning future strategies for cervical screening and understanding the impact of the vaccination at a population level.

Placebo response in clinical trials with schizophrenia patients.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The magnitude of placebo response is an important factor in the outcome of clinical trials, in that excessive placebo response can obscure true drug-placebo differences. There is ample evidence of the impact of elevated placebo response in trials of major depression, but less intensive research has been done in the area of schizophrenia. We present a current review of placebo response in clinical trials of schizophrenia. RECENT FINDINGS: The existing evidence suggests that placebo response in schizophrenia trials may be similar in magnitude, quality, and impact to that observed in depression trials, and has similarly increased over the past several years. We discuss factors influencing excessive placebo response during the conduct of clinical trials and how they may be managed to help minimize placebo response. SUMMARY: There does not appear to be any single major factor contributing to the high levels of placebo response in schizophrenia clinical trials; therefore, a multipronged approach to minimizing excessive placebo response or its impact is recommended.

Triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio: a surrogate to predict insulin resistance and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol particle size in nondiabetic patients with schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Insulin resistance, changes in lipid parameters, and cardiometabolic adverse events have been reported in some patients during clinical trials of antipsychotic agents. The present study examined whether the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio can be used as a better surrogate than other conventional lipid measures (low-density lipoprotein [LDL], HDL, triglyceride) in predicting insulin resistance and LDL particle size in nondiabetic patients with schizophrenia. METHOD: Outpatients 18 to 75 years old diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (DSM-IV criteria) and receiving olanzapine, risperidone, or typical antipsychotics participated in a multicenter, cross-sectional study. Fasting blood samples were obtained to determine the levels of glucose, insulin, lipids, and lipid particle size. The study was conducted from July 2001 to March 2002. RESULTS: In the sample of 206 patients, significant correlations were found between various lipid measures (LDL, HDL, triglyceride, and triglyceride/HDL ratio) and the homeostasis model of assessment of insulin resistance (P < .05). However, stepwise multiple regression analysis suggested that the triglyceride/HDL ratio is a stronger predictor of insulin resistance and of LDL particle size than other conventional lipoprotein measures after other potential confounding variables, including age, gender, race, family history of diabetes, body mass index, and antipsychotic agent, were taken into consideration (P < .001). Further, logistic regression analysis indicated that the triglyceride/HDL ratio and male gender predict the existence of a small LDL particle size pattern (pattern B LDL phenotype), with a sensitivity of 75.9% and a specificity of 85.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The triglyceride/HDL ratio, a simple, readily available and inexpensive measure, can be a useful surrogate to identify those with insulin resistance as well as those with more atherogenic small LDL particles in nondiabetic patients with schizophrenia.